Ecological response to environmental change in the Boreal Realm and the origins of three mass extinction events

Since the Cambrian Explosion of life on Earth, about 540 million years ago (Ma), ecosystems have been suffered repeated mass extinctions. There have been at least five major extinctions since then, most recently the famous event 65Ma, that wiped out the dinosaurs. Life has shown itself to be remarkably resilient, and it follows that mass extinctions result from serious environmental stress. We live in a time of growing concern that Earth is about to see, or already is going through, a modern mass extinction to rival those of the geological past. In June 2011, the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) reported that a combination of environmental stresses on the oceans is creating the conditions associated with every previous mass extinction. The greatest threats are warming (mainly from greenhouse gases), marine oxygen depletion, ocean acidification, and eutrophication (a process that leads to blooms in life but can ultimately destabilise ecosystems). The difference between these threats in the past and present is that today they have a human origin. In the past they may have resulted from catastrophic volcanism, with widespread volcanic rocks (known as "large igneous provinces") associated with most extinctions. The underlying cause of change may be different between past and present, but there is concern that the effect (extinction) may be the same.

We can learn much from Earth's past, and parallels can be drawn between future scenarios, and mass extinctions in the geological record. All of the aforementioned environmental stresses have been suggested as causes of the biggest crisis of all time, at the close of the Permian (251Ma), when 95% of species disappeared. Similar environmental changes have also been implicated in an earlier extinction in the Middle Permian (260Ma), and another at the end of the subsequent Triassic period (200Ma). This 60 million year interval witnessed some of the most important and remarkable events in the history of the planet, each extinction fundamentally shaping evolution and therefore our very existence.

In this project I will study each of the three events between 260-200Ma, paying particular attention to Polar north oceans, an area known as the "Boreal Realm". Not only are past extinctions poorly understood in the Boreal Realm, this region has greatest uncertainty in the future. My investigations will start with geological fieldwork in Spitsbergen and Siberia, both regions that in the Permian and Triassic, as now, were located in the Arctic. I will sample the three extinction intervals, and my first objective will be to work out when, and how severe the extinctions were, and which species were most affected. I will do this using microscope slides of my samples. I will use several techniques to evaluate which environmental stresses were the likely causes of these crises. These techniques include geochemical analyses of molybdenum and strontium isotopes, looking at tiny pyrite blobs under a high-power microscope, and using an extremely powerful computer model, known as GENIE, all of which tell us about past oceans. A major challenge is to correlate rocks from the Polar regions with those from the tropics, in order to work out whether the Polar oceans suffered more, or less. I will produce a "chemical clock" based on carbon isotopes in the rocks, which will allow me to match sequences in Spitsbergen and Russia with those from elsewhere.

The main goal of this project is to identify whether there is a latitudinal variation to extinction risk. This might influence the fate of Boreal communities in the future, and my study will inform future governance of the world's oceans, as we look to prevent a contemporary mass extinction. The results will not only be useful for geologists, but also to policy makers that extend through groups such as IUCN, right up to the United Nations, that is ultimately charged with protecting our oceans for future generations.

Who?

This project will compile publishable data from an important period in Earth history, and evaluate several environmental stresses invoked in extinction scenarios. The beneficiaries are many because this topic is a focus of the Earth science research agenda that holds great interest for the wider public as concerns grow about a modern mass extinction. Unusually for an extinction study, the project has been designed in consultation with policy groups involved with modern ocean governance (e.g. IUCN and IPSO). Thus, while the project will deliver fundamental knowledge about the causes and consequences of environmental change in deep time, it is intended to have impact with conservation, policy and governmental groups. Wider beneficiaries include academics from other disciplines (Earth system modellers, climate scientists), undergraduates, the scientifically literate public, school teachers, and children.

How?

Academic users beyond my immediate field include Earth system modellers, climate scientists and those working on modern Boreal ecosystems. The research will be published in high-impact journals and presented at international conferences. Two high profile project workshops will engage diverse academic groups with policy makers and the general public; the proceedings will be published on an open access basis.

Specific objectives map onto a number of wider academic users:

a) developing a Boreal Permian to Jurassic chemostratigraphy will stimulate further multidisciplinary research in the region by providing a timeframe for other studies;
b) evaluating the relative impact of environmental stresses in the Boreal Realm will be relevant to those who study extinctions, palaeoclimates, and oceanography;
c) employing the GENIE model to evaluate past ocean redox and pH states (the latter being a major conundrum in Earth science) will further develop a promising tool with wide ranging applications;
d) identifying latitudinal bias to extinction risk will be a fundamental achievement with widespread impact for Earth historians and our approach to modern ecology and environmental governance.

Policy makers will benefit especially from outputs b) and d). The results feed into ocean governance because they will evaluate different threats in the Boreal Realm (and the likelihood of Boreal vs. low latitude losses in the near future), and will potentially influence future research funding and focus. These end users will be involved in workshops that will engage them in the research and encourage two-way knowledge exchange that can shape the latter part of the project and my future research.

Extinction and climate are popular topics for non-academic users. Increasing understanding of past global change benefits society by profoundly influencing how we see the world in which we live. Traditional and novel mediums will be employed to communicate with graduate and undergraduate geoscientists and scientists from other disciplines, the general public, school teachers, and children. These groups have been exposed to this highly active research area over the past two decades through popular media. Several strategies will facilitate their engagement:

Workshop: These will engage not only scientific users but also undergraduates and the general public because they will encouraged to attend, and talks will be broadcast online and published in open access reports / press releases.
Website: Designed for various academic levels, this will include images / videos of fieldwork, research "tutorials" and posters for schools (a learning and teaching resource for key stages 3-5).
Mass media: Press releases will target papers and television, a highly successful strategy in communicating science to a wide audience.
Outreach and teaching: Students will benefit from interactive events (as part of Science Week) promoting understanding of the topic. Undergraduates will benefit because the research will feed into my research-led teaching.