Improving Interpretation Outcomes: quantifying biases and designing workflows for better seismic interpretation
Lead Research Organisation:
University of Aberdeen
Department Name: Geology and Petroleum Geology
Abstract
Development of geological models of the sub-surface relies on the interpretation of largely remotely sensed data. We propose a program of knowledge exchange that shares existing information and trials new methods for determining the impact of human biases, anchoring and confidence, on the interpretation of data used to build geological models. From this knowledge exchange and creation we will create and promote optimal workflows for interpretation that minimize risk in the oil and gas industry from interpretational uncertainty.
The geological exploration and production of hydrocarbons and the storage of CO2 in geological reservoirs requires a 3D picture to be built of the sub-surface. This picture is made up of remotely sensed information like seismic reflection data with poor resolution, and 1D point sources such as well bores which sample a relatively small amount of the sub-surface volume of interest. Work on improving interpretation of these datasets has mainly focused on technological improvements to refine the imaging and processing of the remotely sensed data to better illuminate the sub-surface architecture. But even with improved techniques interpretations of the data, and the subsequent models created are uncertain. This uncertainty equates to exploration and production risk. The risk results from the lack of constraint from the data to create a 'certain' predictive model, and is amplified by known biases that are applied during interpretation of limited datasets. This knowledge exchange proposal aims to: quantify the effect of known biases on interpretation of seismic reflection datasets and to build a workflow that minimizes biases in interpretation that industry can deploy.
We will work with industry, and on industry datasets, to exchange knowledge of industry workflows and the effects of human bias between the academics and partner companies involved, as well as with MSc and PhD students. Building on this exchange we will create new knowledge through a series of experiments to investigate and quantify the influence of anchoring on interpretation. By building into the experiment release of additional data we will test how individual's deal with new information that either confirms, or is contrary, to their original interpretation; and for how long individuals remain anchored to an original prediction in the face of contradictory evidence. We will compare cohorts of individuals with staged access to different data against those with all the data at the outset. Throughout the process we will gauge an individual's perception of confidence in their interpretation through an expert elicitation process. Using this new knowledge we will quantify the impact of human biases on interpretational uncertainty and determine an optimal workflow for seismic interpretation.
From our combined existing and co-generated knowledge we will create a series of products to promote this workflow, and the associated knowledge, as well as the NERC science on which they are based. These will include an online resource of digital video footage deployed through the existing Virtual Seismic Atlas, accessed by 8,000-10,000 users monthly, and a series of training packages for industry and early career scientists undertaking PhDs as part of the NERC Oil and Gas Centre for Doctoral Training.
The geological exploration and production of hydrocarbons and the storage of CO2 in geological reservoirs requires a 3D picture to be built of the sub-surface. This picture is made up of remotely sensed information like seismic reflection data with poor resolution, and 1D point sources such as well bores which sample a relatively small amount of the sub-surface volume of interest. Work on improving interpretation of these datasets has mainly focused on technological improvements to refine the imaging and processing of the remotely sensed data to better illuminate the sub-surface architecture. But even with improved techniques interpretations of the data, and the subsequent models created are uncertain. This uncertainty equates to exploration and production risk. The risk results from the lack of constraint from the data to create a 'certain' predictive model, and is amplified by known biases that are applied during interpretation of limited datasets. This knowledge exchange proposal aims to: quantify the effect of known biases on interpretation of seismic reflection datasets and to build a workflow that minimizes biases in interpretation that industry can deploy.
We will work with industry, and on industry datasets, to exchange knowledge of industry workflows and the effects of human bias between the academics and partner companies involved, as well as with MSc and PhD students. Building on this exchange we will create new knowledge through a series of experiments to investigate and quantify the influence of anchoring on interpretation. By building into the experiment release of additional data we will test how individual's deal with new information that either confirms, or is contrary, to their original interpretation; and for how long individuals remain anchored to an original prediction in the face of contradictory evidence. We will compare cohorts of individuals with staged access to different data against those with all the data at the outset. Throughout the process we will gauge an individual's perception of confidence in their interpretation through an expert elicitation process. Using this new knowledge we will quantify the impact of human biases on interpretational uncertainty and determine an optimal workflow for seismic interpretation.
From our combined existing and co-generated knowledge we will create a series of products to promote this workflow, and the associated knowledge, as well as the NERC science on which they are based. These will include an online resource of digital video footage deployed through the existing Virtual Seismic Atlas, accessed by 8,000-10,000 users monthly, and a series of training packages for industry and early career scientists undertaking PhDs as part of the NERC Oil and Gas Centre for Doctoral Training.
Organisations
- University of Aberdeen (Lead Research Organisation)
- ConocoPhillips (Collaboration)
- BP (British Petroleum) (Collaboration)
- Total E & P (Collaboration)
- Midland Valley Exploration (Collaboration)
- Rose and Associates, LLP (Collaboration)
- Agile Geoscience (Collaboration)
- Texas A&M University (Collaboration)
People |
ORCID iD |
Clare Bond (Principal Investigator) | |
Robert Butler (Co-Investigator) |
Publications
Alcalde J
(2018)
Estimating geological CO2 storage security to deliver on climate mitigation.
in Nature communications
Alcalde J
(2017)
Impact of seismic image quality on fault interpretation uncertainty
in GSA Today
Alcalde J
(2017)
The importance of structural model availability on seismic interpretation
in Journal of Structural Geology
Alcalde J
(2017)
Framing bias: The effect of figure presentation on seismic interpretation
in Interpretation
Gilfillan SMV
(2019)
Noble gases confirm plume-related mantle degassing beneath Southern Africa.
in Nature communications
Ogaya X
(2016)
Joint interpretation of magnetotelluric, seismic, and well-log data in Hontomín (Spain)
in Solid Earth
Description | Interpretation of seismic image data is subjective. Specialists are influenced by a range of factors and biases. Mitigation strategies may be employed to minimise the influence of known biases. |
Exploitation Route | Findings from the award are being out into place in major energy companies and associated consultancies, they are also being used to inform and change teaching material at undergraduate and masters level. |
Sectors | Digital/Communication/Information Technologies (including Software) Energy Environment Healthcare |
Description | Change in practice and input into training and awareness raising. Development of consulting work in the hydrocarbon sector which has led to negotiations for funding for a PhD. |
First Year Of Impact | 2015 |
Sector | Energy |
Impact Types | Societal Economic |
Description | Nagra, Switzerland |
Amount | £11,000 (GBP) |
Organisation | National Cooperative for the Disposal of Radioactive Waste |
Sector | Private |
Country | Switzerland |
Start | 02/2019 |
End | 02/2021 |
Description | Royal Society Edinburgh Research Sabbatical Grant |
Amount | £63,000 (GBP) |
Organisation | Royal Society of Edinburgh (RSE) |
Sector | Charity/Non Profit |
Country | United Kingdom |
Start | 07/2018 |
End | 08/2019 |
Description | Total geological research centre |
Amount | £108,000 (GBP) |
Organisation | Total E & P |
Sector | Private |
Country | United Kingdom |
Start | 03/2018 |
End | 08/2022 |
Description | Agile geoscience - pick this |
Organisation | Agile Geoscience |
Country | Canada |
Sector | Private |
PI Contribution | Input into design of pick this online software |
Collaborator Contribution | Development of specific code to add our requirements to pick this software - input into experiment design and automated output analysis. |
Impact | Online interpretations can be seen at http://pickthis.io |
Start Year | 2015 |
Description | Collaboration with BP |
Organisation | BP (British Petroleum) |
Country | United Kingdom |
Sector | Private |
PI Contribution | Team meeting and discussion of input - ongoing liaison |
Collaborator Contribution | Discussion and input into research and relevance to industry. Financial crisis in oil and gas industry has resulted in the redundancy of key personal involved in the project. |
Impact | None specific to this collaboration. The main input was in generating and collaborating on the grant formulation. |
Start Year | 2014 |
Description | Collaboration with ConocoPhillips |
Organisation | ConocoPhillips |
Country | United States |
Sector | Private |
PI Contribution | Discussion of the project and research experiments. |
Collaborator Contribution | Various email, phone and personal meetings about the research, but due to the industry financial crisis they could not commit to experiment delivery. |
Impact | The main input was in generating and collaborating on the grant formulation. |
Start Year | 2014 |
Description | Collaboration with Midland Valley Exploration |
Organisation | Midland Valley Exploration |
Country | United Kingdom |
Sector | Private |
PI Contribution | Discussion on interpretation of data and implications for structural models. |
Collaborator Contribution | Access to software, seismic data, and scientific discussion |
Impact | Input into various posters and presentations. Co-author on publication recently submitted to GSAToday |
Start Year | 2015 |
Description | Collaboration/Discussion with Texas A&M University |
Organisation | Texas A&M University |
Country | United States |
Sector | Academic/University |
PI Contribution | Discusion and joint preparation of experiments. |
Collaborator Contribution | Various email, phone and personal meetings about the research, preparation of experiments to be run in parallel with ours. No further progress (2019) |
Impact | Preparation of joint interpretation experiment - Not progressed (2019) |
Start Year | 2015 |
Description | Discussion with Marc Bond-Rose & Associates |
Organisation | Rose and Associates, LLP |
Country | United States |
Sector | Private |
PI Contribution | Meeting and discussion about the research project and exchange of information and examples. |
Collaborator Contribution | Participation in the experiments, exchange of information. |
Impact | Not specific for this collaboration |
Start Year | 2015 |
Description | Total sponsored PhD |
Organisation | Total E & P |
Country | United Kingdom |
Sector | Private |
PI Contribution | Total Geological Research Centre are sponsoring a PhD on uncertainty in complex models |
Collaborator Contribution | Have published first paper from this collaboration Schaaf and Bond (2019) Soild Earth. Collaboration on-going. |
Impact | No outputs yet |
Start Year | 2017 |
Description | American Association of Petroleum Geologists - research stand, Denver, US |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Industry/Business |
Results and Impact | A stand in the conference exhibition to promote the research and research project - Discussion with industry, and engagement in the project through participation in experiments. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2015 |
URL | http://ace.aapg.org/2015 |
Description | FORCE - oil industry network (Norway) - invited talk |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Industry/Business |
Results and Impact | Presentation at oil industry network event - FORCE in Stavanger |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2017 |
Description | Invited seminar Oslo University |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | Invited research seminar at the University of Oslo on Interpretational Uncertainty |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2017 |
Description | Poster Presentation - Saying Goodbye to a 2D Earth (Margaret River, Australia) |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | Poster Presentation - Where is the Fault? - An experiment to understand differences in seismic interpretation Discussion around posters on seismic interpretation - application of findings to mining data. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2015 |
URL | http://www.tectonique.net/tectask/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=31 |
Description | Poster at the Seismix Symposium - Aviemore, Scotland |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | Poster to be presented at the Seismix Symposium held in Aviemore, Scotland. The expected audience includes international experts in seismic imaging |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2016 |
URL | http://www.abdn.ac.uk/geosciences/events/seismix-2016-1028.php |
Description | Seminar at ETH Zurich |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | Invited seminar at ETH Zurich |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2017 |
Description | Talk at the Seismix Symposium - Aviemore, Scotland |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | Talk to be given at the Seismix Symposium held in Aviemore, Scotland. The expected audience includes international experts in seismic imaging . |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2016 |
URL | http://www.abdn.ac.uk/geosciences/events/seismix-2016-1028.php |
Description | Tectonic Studies Group AGM - London |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | Poster presentation at the Annual meeting of the Tectonic Studies Group of the Geological Society of London |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2016 |
URL | https://tsg2016.wordpress.com |