IMPALA: Improving Model Processes for African cLimAte

Lead Research Organisation: University of Leeds
Department Name: School of Earth and Environment

Abstract

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Planned Impact

IMPALA research will have significant impact locally, nationally and regionally in Africa as well as globally via the following beneficiaries and pathways.
FCFA Regional Consortia adaptation and impacts researchers and regional climate information providers will have direct access to new scientific understanding on, and improved simulations of, African climate variability and change via inclusion in the established Africa-focused process evaluation group (PEG). CP4-Africa climate change simulations will be disseminated through the NERC JASMIN data cluster for regional consortia to test multi-model projection robustness in key stakeholder-relevant local processes and extremes often poorly represented in coarser resolution models.
Model development Scientists in Africa: The 5 African model evaluation and development scientists in IMPALA will make extended visits to the Met Office focused on MetUM evaluation, development and training. They and their institutes will be offered the opportunity to install MetUM technical infrastructure and support for its configuration and application, developing local and regional expertise which is currently in very limited supply.
Policymakers: Policy briefings on improved reliability of model predictions relevant to climate resilience and adaptation planning across Africa will be delivered to UK Government through DFID and, via the Met Office Hadley Centre Knowledge Integration team, DECC. Internationally they will be communicated to the Conferences of the Parties and the Nairobi Work Programme of the UNFCCC and IPCC through active engagement in its scientific assessments and special reports. Close contact will be maintained with the African Climate Policy Centre and the African Development Bank.
People and communities in Africa and beyond: The ultimate beneficiaries of the research will be people of sub-Saharan Africa and IMPALA scientists will work with the CCKE Unit to assist in generating cross-programme outputs, e.g. material demonstrating improved capability to assess risks of key agriculture-relevant rainfall events, for their user training workshops and interactions with other DFID programmes and broader capacity development and adaptation activities.
Operational weather, seasonal forecasting and climate service capability in Africa: IMPALA model developments will imply improved representation of processes important for short-range to seasonal forecasting. With the MetUM being used across all timescales these developments will rapidly deliver improved weather and seasonal forecasts relevant to existing severe weather to seasonal forecasting activities the Met Office is already feeding directly into as well as to future programmes such as SHEAR funded by DFID.
Scientific community, CMIP6 and other modelling centres: To broaden the Africa-lens approach to the international stage IMPALA's methodology for model diagnosis, understanding and improvement will be disseminated through papers, at international science meetings and included in the planned CMIP6 benchmarking and evaluation software tools (overseen by the WCRP Working Group for Coupled Models co-chaired by the PI).
Cross programme Activities: IMPALA scientists will work with the CCKE Unit to ensure full engagement in cross-programme activities and knowledge transfer through relevant networks. Scientists from regional consortia will be included in the Africa PEG to enable a rapid exchange of model developments, datasets and understanding and ideas on relevant metrics of model performance.
Wider FCFA programme activities through the Programme Executive Committee (PEC): The PI will work with the Programme Management Unit and PEC to increase IMPALA impact and reach beyond FCFA. The PI and CO-Is have broad experience in communicating work on African science to inter-disciplinary scientists and policy makers through their engagement in previous DFID or NERC projects and are already active in many outreach events in Africa.

Publications

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Tomassini L (2017) The interaction between moist diabatic processes and the atmospheric circulation in African Easterly Wave propagation in Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society

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Garcia-Carreras L (2021) Capturing convection essential for projections of climate change in African dust emission in npj Climate and Atmospheric Science

 
Title The sound of Africa's changing climate 
Description We used climate data from the CP4 model to create music in the style of West African music. The music was driven by the data so that uncomfortable future temperatures and humidities sound discordant. From the web page: "Data sonification is a legitimate way to represent data, explains Prof Douglas Parker, who gives the example of a heart rate monitor as a demonstration of sonic data. "The idea behind this experiment is not just to produce a scientific exercise, though, says Parker, but to merge the climate data with the aesthetics of music in a way that can elicit an emotional response in the listener. "An exercise like this can have different purposes, he says. It can sell an educational story and can also activate people in the way that protest music like that of Bob Dylan and others did in the United States during the Vietnam War. It can also be an artistic activity that people can listen to and enjoy. "Prof Benjamin Lamptey's time as the Acting Director-General of the African Centre of Meteorological Applications for Development (ACMAD) in Niamey, Niger, contributed to initiating the team's first experimental track. "With this one, the team took four climatic variables for Niamey from the year 1997 - temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, and rainfall levels - and used the sonification process to rework this data as music. "Where the Ghana track has more of a West African musical style, the Niamey track is in the electronic dance music genre. In this composition, two keyboard instrumentals represent the temperature and humidity information for the Niger capital, while the percussion represents the rainfall and the bass delivers the wind data. The first half of the track is the musical rendition of the 1997 weather data, while the second half slips across to reflect the kind of shifts to these weather parameters that the city may experience a hundred years from then, and where the music becomes clashing and discordant. "The track also has a recording of Lamptey, this time reflecting on the importance of collaboration and research in order to boost climate resilience." 
Type Of Art Performance (Music, Dance, Drama, etc) 
Year Produced 2021 
Impact The music has been featured in an editorial in the journal Nature. 
URL https://futureclimateafrica.org/news/this-is-the-sound-of-west-africas-changing-climate/
 
Description We have tested the representation of rainfall in climate models, with differing representations of the weather systems.

From observations, we find a significant modulation of African rainfall by "Kelvin waves" propagating along the equator. The response of the rain is different in different locations due to local climate (e.g. topography, coastlines etc). We find that the type of model used in global prediction has a surprisingly good representation of the sensitivity of the rainfall to these prevailing weather conditions (Kelvin wave). However, its representation of weather extremes (heavy rain and drought) is much less successful: we indicate the causes of these errors.

We find that the global prediction models fail to capture the mechanisms causing changes in the rainfall distributions in the tropics in a changing climate. When the storms are resolved by a model, we find that a weakening tropical circulation is embedded with intensifying severe storms. The low resolution model cannot capture this behaviour, and its overall circulation-changes are biased as a result.
Exploitation Route The results are already being used by the Met Office as a measure of the capability of their models to capture the effects of global climate change on local high-impact weather in Africa.
Sectors Environment

 
Description We have implemented a new dust-uplift scheme in the Met Office Unified forecast model.
First Year Of Impact 2017
Sector Environment
Impact Types Economic

 
Description CEH-Leeds 
Organisation UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Public 
PI Contribution My team in Leeds conduct atmospheric studies using observations, models and theoretical ideas. I have also led a number of projects and field experiements in which we have collaborated with CEH.
Collaborator Contribution Expertise in land-surface processes. Expertise in land-atmosphere interactions. Expertise in land-atmosphere climate dynamics. Data analysis, especially remote sensing of rainfall and land surface state. Leadership of projects. Co-supervision of PhD students.
Impact This is a multidisciplinary partnership in the area of land-atmosphere interaction. It has resulted in a large number of high-impact papers, successful jointly-supervised PhD studentships, and successful impacts, especially in Africa.
 
Description Met Office 
Organisation Meteorological Office UK
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution Our research group analyses atmospheric processes in order to better represent them in the Met Office's forecast models. We also use those forecast models in our research, and evaluate their performance in order to identify the best strategies to improve the models.
Collaborator Contribution The Met Office brings its models and its datasets to the partnership, in addition to the considerable expertise of its staff. The Met Office also represent a conduit to the impact of our research for society, through its provision of operational weather and climate forecasts.
Impact Our research has influenced the Met Office strategy for model development, especially in regard to high-resolution models, and the convective parametrisation scheme. We have jointly influenced international strategy for atmospheric research and measurements.