Understanding and Attributing Composition-Climate Feedbacks in the Earth System
Lead Research Organisation:
University of Leeds
Department Name: School of Earth and Environment
Abstract
The Earth's surface has warmed by ~0.8 degrees Celsius over the past 130 years. A large body of scientific evidence indicates that the majority of this warming has been driven by mankind's activities: principally the emission of greenhouse gases, like carbon dioxide, into the atmosphere. If greenhouse gas emissions continue unabated, it is considered likely that dangerous climate change will occur in many parts of the globe by the end of the century or earlier. It is therefore crucial that the scientific community is able to provide quantitative, reliable information about climate in the coming decades to enable governments to implement appropriate adaptation and mitigation strategies in good time.
Whilst the fundamental physics that links increases in greenhouse gases to global warming is very robust and well understood, the exact magnitude of surface temperature change depends upon a complex array of feedback loops that amplify or damp the response, much like in an electronic circuit. For example, the melting of Arctic sea ice and glaciers is a positive feedback that enhances surface warming because the Earth's surface can absorb more incoming energy from the Sun leading to further warming. A comprehensive understanding of these feedbacks is required if we are to be able to provide quantitative information about future climate.
Climate projections are strongly reliant upon complex climate 'simulators' that capture a wide range of physical processes. These large computer programs are run of the world's most powerful supercomputers and have developed in leaps and bounds over the past few decades. They now include sophisticated representations of the atmosphere, ocean, sea ice, vegetation, land surface, ocean biogeochemistry and atmospheric chemical processes: so-called Earth System Models. This wide array of processes means that new interactions and feedback loops will be captured that could be important for our understanding of climate; many of these loops may have been previously ignored or not well represented in less comprehensive climate models and therefore scientific research is required to understand them in detail.
An important candidate for 'new' interactions in the Earth system is atmospheric chemical processes. Both chemical and transport processes are sensitive to climatic conditions. This means that the distribution of other gases in the atmosphere, such as ozone, will also change as levels of carbon dioxide increase. Ozone is also a greenhouse gas, so changes in its abundance will have further effects on our climate. This coupling between carbon dioxide, ozone levels and climate is one example of a chemistry-climate feedback loop. These feedbacks are complex to understand because they involve sequences of processes that are intimately coupled. The main goal of this research is to investigate the two-way interactions between climate and the composition of Earth's atmosphere, and to determine which feedback loops are important for our understanding of climate change.
Such studies are only now possible because of the recent rapid progress in our capabilities to simulate the Earth system. The project will track the cutting edge developments in this area by using a state-of-the-art Earth System Model currently being built by the UK scientific community. This research will improve our fundamental understanding of how chemical processes affect Earth's climate and will shed light on their role in determining how climate may evolve in the coming decades.
Whilst the fundamental physics that links increases in greenhouse gases to global warming is very robust and well understood, the exact magnitude of surface temperature change depends upon a complex array of feedback loops that amplify or damp the response, much like in an electronic circuit. For example, the melting of Arctic sea ice and glaciers is a positive feedback that enhances surface warming because the Earth's surface can absorb more incoming energy from the Sun leading to further warming. A comprehensive understanding of these feedbacks is required if we are to be able to provide quantitative information about future climate.
Climate projections are strongly reliant upon complex climate 'simulators' that capture a wide range of physical processes. These large computer programs are run of the world's most powerful supercomputers and have developed in leaps and bounds over the past few decades. They now include sophisticated representations of the atmosphere, ocean, sea ice, vegetation, land surface, ocean biogeochemistry and atmospheric chemical processes: so-called Earth System Models. This wide array of processes means that new interactions and feedback loops will be captured that could be important for our understanding of climate; many of these loops may have been previously ignored or not well represented in less comprehensive climate models and therefore scientific research is required to understand them in detail.
An important candidate for 'new' interactions in the Earth system is atmospheric chemical processes. Both chemical and transport processes are sensitive to climatic conditions. This means that the distribution of other gases in the atmosphere, such as ozone, will also change as levels of carbon dioxide increase. Ozone is also a greenhouse gas, so changes in its abundance will have further effects on our climate. This coupling between carbon dioxide, ozone levels and climate is one example of a chemistry-climate feedback loop. These feedbacks are complex to understand because they involve sequences of processes that are intimately coupled. The main goal of this research is to investigate the two-way interactions between climate and the composition of Earth's atmosphere, and to determine which feedback loops are important for our understanding of climate change.
Such studies are only now possible because of the recent rapid progress in our capabilities to simulate the Earth system. The project will track the cutting edge developments in this area by using a state-of-the-art Earth System Model currently being built by the UK scientific community. This research will improve our fundamental understanding of how chemical processes affect Earth's climate and will shed light on their role in determining how climate may evolve in the coming decades.
Planned Impact
The main users of the research and strategies for dissemination to these groups are described below.
The UK Met Office
The outcomes of the project will contribute to the future development of the Met Office Unified Model. The UM has been adopted by more than 42 end-users around the globe, including the Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, the Korea Meteorological Administration and the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (New Zealand), and many of these external partners will also benefit from the research.
The research will make a substantial contribution to the joint Met Office/NERC programme to develop the UK Earth System Model 1 as part of the Joint Weather and Climate Research Programme (JWCRP). Met Office scientists will be closely engaged with the research, both via existing collaborations established by development of UKCA and new links with the 'Understanding Climate Change' group (see letter of support). Regular visits to Exeter are planned.
Other users could benefit from the implementation of new diagnostic tools into UK-ESM1, and efforts will be made to get these lodged in the model code so that they are available to the wider community.
Other international modelling centres
Many international centres are currently developing Earth System Models. The research will directly impact on these centres and their activities through increases in fundamental understanding of Earth System processes. The research will be disseminated to these users through publications in peer-reviewed journals and through talks at international conferences and meetings. The extended visit to NOAA will also enable links to be made with the modelling group at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) who are developing the CESM-WACCM Earth System Model.
Other researchers working on radiative forcing and climate feedbacks
There is a large international community working on topics related to radiative forcing and climate feedbacks who will be interested in the research. It will be disseminated to these users through my involvement with the Radiative Forcing Model Intercomparison Project (RFMIP), which is planned as part of CMIP6 (see attached letter of support from RFMIP co-lead Prof Piers Forster). This will strengthen links to international scientific assessments such as future IPCC reports.
Other researchers working on chemistry-climate processes and air quality
The research will make substantial steps forward in the role of understanding of chemical processes in the climate system and will therefore impact on the wider atmospheric chemistry community. Cambridge is closely involved in the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI), which will provide a channel for disseminating the research through meetings and workshops. There is a close symbiosis between air quality and climate for topics related to composition. Whilst the research will focus on climate, it is also anticipated that the air quality community will be interested in the work, and efforts will be made to engage with them where possible.
Policy makers and the general public
The research will be highly relevant to future international scientific assessments, such as Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reports and the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) Ozone Assessments. I was invited to participate in the final review process for the 2014 WMO Ozone Assessment Report and therefore have contacts within this community that I will maintain during the research.
The research planned as part of this project is aimed at increasing our understanding of our environment and its sensitivity to mankind's actions. This will contribute to the large body of climate research that enables scientists to provide information to policy makers and the general public, and is therefore of indirect benefit to the wider society.
The UK Met Office
The outcomes of the project will contribute to the future development of the Met Office Unified Model. The UM has been adopted by more than 42 end-users around the globe, including the Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, the Korea Meteorological Administration and the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (New Zealand), and many of these external partners will also benefit from the research.
The research will make a substantial contribution to the joint Met Office/NERC programme to develop the UK Earth System Model 1 as part of the Joint Weather and Climate Research Programme (JWCRP). Met Office scientists will be closely engaged with the research, both via existing collaborations established by development of UKCA and new links with the 'Understanding Climate Change' group (see letter of support). Regular visits to Exeter are planned.
Other users could benefit from the implementation of new diagnostic tools into UK-ESM1, and efforts will be made to get these lodged in the model code so that they are available to the wider community.
Other international modelling centres
Many international centres are currently developing Earth System Models. The research will directly impact on these centres and their activities through increases in fundamental understanding of Earth System processes. The research will be disseminated to these users through publications in peer-reviewed journals and through talks at international conferences and meetings. The extended visit to NOAA will also enable links to be made with the modelling group at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) who are developing the CESM-WACCM Earth System Model.
Other researchers working on radiative forcing and climate feedbacks
There is a large international community working on topics related to radiative forcing and climate feedbacks who will be interested in the research. It will be disseminated to these users through my involvement with the Radiative Forcing Model Intercomparison Project (RFMIP), which is planned as part of CMIP6 (see attached letter of support from RFMIP co-lead Prof Piers Forster). This will strengthen links to international scientific assessments such as future IPCC reports.
Other researchers working on chemistry-climate processes and air quality
The research will make substantial steps forward in the role of understanding of chemical processes in the climate system and will therefore impact on the wider atmospheric chemistry community. Cambridge is closely involved in the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI), which will provide a channel for disseminating the research through meetings and workshops. There is a close symbiosis between air quality and climate for topics related to composition. Whilst the research will focus on climate, it is also anticipated that the air quality community will be interested in the work, and efforts will be made to engage with them where possible.
Policy makers and the general public
The research will be highly relevant to future international scientific assessments, such as Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reports and the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) Ozone Assessments. I was invited to participate in the final review process for the 2014 WMO Ozone Assessment Report and therefore have contacts within this community that I will maintain during the research.
The research planned as part of this project is aimed at increasing our understanding of our environment and its sensitivity to mankind's actions. This will contribute to the large body of climate research that enables scientists to provide information to policy makers and the general public, and is therefore of indirect benefit to the wider society.
Organisations
- University of Leeds (Fellow, Lead Research Organisation)
- World Energy and Meteorology Council (Collaboration)
- International Space Science Institute (ISSI) (Collaboration)
- Meteorological Office UK (Collaboration)
- World Climate Research Programme (Collaboration)
- National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (Collaboration)
- Barcelona Supercomputing Center (Collaboration)
- US Climate Variability and Predictability (Collaboration)
People |
ORCID iD |
Amanda Maycock (Principal Investigator / Fellow) |
Publications
Maycock A
(2021)
On the Structure of Instantaneous Radiative Forcing Kernels for Greenhouse Gases
in Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences
Dow William J.
(2021)
The Effect of Anthropogenic Aerosols on the Aleutian Low
in JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
Trascasa-Castro P
(2021)
Warm Phase of AMV Damps ENSO Through Weakened Thermocline Feedback
in Geophysical Research Letters
Yiu YYS
(2020)
The linearity of the El Niño teleconnection to the Amundsen Sea region.
in Quarterly journal of the Royal Meteorological Society. Royal Meteorological Society (Great Britain)
McCrystall M
(2020)
The Impact of Changes in Tropical Sea Surface Temperatures over 1979-2012 on Northern Hemisphere High-Latitude Climate
in Journal of Climate
McKenna C
(2020)
Stringent mitigation substantially reduces risk of unprecedented near-term warming rates
in Nature Climate Change
Wood T
(2020)
The Southern Hemisphere Midlatitude Circulation Response to Rapid Adjustments and Sea Surface Temperature Driven Feedbacks
in Journal of Climate
Chrysanthou A
(2020)
Decomposing the response of the stratospheric Brewer-Dobson circulation to an abrupt quadrupling in CO<sub>2</sub>
in Weather and Climate Dynamics
Description | The project has created new knowledge on several cutting-edge topics related to the interaction and feedbacks between atmospheric composition and climate. A series of studies resulting from the project examine variability and change in atmospheric ozone abundance due to different natural and human factors, including the effect of solar cycle variability (Maycock et al., 2016, 2018), internal dynamical variability (Bednarz et al., 2017), and anthropogenic climate change (Keeble et al., 2017). A key finding from this work is that new satellite estimates of solar cycle variability and biased by the use of meteorological reanalysis dataset for converting from ozone number density to mixing ratio (Maycock et al., 2016). A series of studies resulting from the project then examined the influence of atmospheric ozone on the climate, including on atmospheric temperature variability (Ming et al., 2017) and long-term trends (Maycock, 2016; Maycock et al., 2018), on radiative forcing of climate (Banerjee et al., 2018) and on dynamical signals due to natural variability (Bednarz et al., 2018). The project has developed new knowledge on the interactions between climate variability and transport in the lower tropical stratosphere. This includes the important role of temperature variability in determining fluctuations in stratospheric water vapour entry (Smith et al., 2021) and the processes that contribute to changes in stratospheric transport over time (Chrysanthou et al., 2019, 2020). More recent work has concentrated on the influence of tropospheric composition on tropospheric circulation and climate variability. This includes examining the controversial topic of whether anthropogenic aerosols affect North Pacific climate (Dow et al., 2021) and demonstrating the distinct influence of anthropogenic aerosols on the Southern hemisphere extratropical circulation (Wood et al., 2020) and on surface temperature change (Richardson et al., 2019). This investigation within the project into the effects of natural climate variability was further pursued by examining the theoretical understanding of mechanisms for teleconnections between the tropics and extratropics (Yiu and Maycock, 2019, 2020; Trascasa-Castro et al., 2019). A key result was to show that immediate reductions in greenhouse gas emissions towards achieving the long-term temperature targets of the 2015 UNFCCC Paris Agreement is very likely to have a discernible effect on temperature trends in the next 20 years (McKenna et al., 2021). Furthermore, the most recent climate model simulations performed to support the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Sixth Assessment Report show higher climate sensitivities than predecessor models (Forster et al., 2020). Both of these findings have been assessed by the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report. Overall, the project has contributed to new knowledge and understanding in a range of topics related to the interaction between atmospheric composition and climate from interannual to centennial timescales. These results have been reported to the wider community through a series of publications in peer-reviewed scientific journals. |
Exploitation Route | The results demonstrating substantial near-term benefits of early and rapid reductions in greenhouse gas emissions (McKenna et al., 2021) is an important result for Governments and policy-makers insofar as it demonstrates the potential for substantial climate benefits not only in the long-term but in the next two decades. The outcomes from the project have helped to inform the upcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Sixth Assessment Report -- as several of the studies are cited in that report -- and are therefore relevant to the latest assessment of the physical understanding of climate change and its drivers, as well as the use of physical science evidence to inform the development of international climate policy targets. The range of results using the Met Office Hadley Centre climate and chemistry-climate models are relevant to ongoing work towards developing global coupled Earth System Models which simulate interactions and feedbacks between atmospheric composition, dynamics and climate. The new knowledge contributed in these topics provides fruitful avenues for ongoing academic research. |
Sectors | Environment Government Democracy and Justice Other |
Description | Lead Author of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Sixth Assessment Report |
Geographic Reach | Multiple continents/international |
Policy Influence Type | Participation in a guidance/advisory committee |
Description | Lead Author of World Meteorological Organization Ozone Assessment Report 2018 |
Geographic Reach | Multiple continents/international |
Policy Influence Type | Participation in a guidance/advisory committee |
URL | https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/csd/assessments/ozone/2018/ |
Description | Constraining uncertainty of multi decadal climate projections (CONSTRAIN) |
Amount | € 8,000,000 (EUR) |
Funding ID | 820829 |
Organisation | European Commission H2020 |
Sector | Public |
Country | Belgium |
Start | 06/2019 |
End | 06/2023 |
Description | Did the 2022 strong polar vortex make serial extratropical cyclone clustering more likely? (StratClust) |
Amount | £80,633 (GBP) |
Funding ID | NE/X011933/1 |
Organisation | Natural Environment Research Council |
Sector | Public |
Country | United Kingdom |
Start | 04/2023 |
End | 09/2023 |
Description | Joint project with Met Office UKCP18 Demonstrator and National Environment Research Council Yorkshire Integrated Catchment Solutions Programme (ICASP) |
Amount | £90,000 (GBP) |
Funding ID | NE/P011160/1 |
Organisation | Natural Environment Research Council |
Sector | Public |
Country | United Kingdom |
Start | 05/2017 |
End | 09/2017 |
Description | NERC Industrial CASE PhD awards |
Amount | £90,000 (GBP) |
Organisation | Natural Environment Research Council |
Sector | Public |
Country | United Kingdom |
Start | 09/2017 |
End | 09/2021 |
Description | NERC Research Experience Placement |
Amount | £2,000 (GBP) |
Organisation | Natural Environment Research Council |
Sector | Public |
Country | United Kingdom |
Start | 05/2017 |
End | 08/2017 |
Description | Philip Leverhulme Prize 2018 |
Amount | £100,000 (GBP) |
Organisation | The Leverhulme Trust |
Sector | Charity/Non Profit |
Country | United Kingdom |
Start | 09/2019 |
End | 09/2022 |
Title | Dataset for: Wood et al Role of sea surface temperature patterns for the Southern hemisphere jet stream response to CO2 forcing |
Description | This is a dataset of output from version 4 of the Reading Intermediate Global Circulation Model (IGCM4) that was used in the article Wood et al (2020) 'Role of sea surface temperature patterns for the Southern hemisphere jet stream response to CO2 forcing' published in Environmental Research Letters (https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abce27). To isolate the role of sea surface temperature (SST) patterns for the Southern Hemisphere circulation response in the abrupt-4xCO2 experiments in CMIP5 and CMIP6, we perform experiments using IGCM4. Five 120-year long simulations were performed following a 5-year spin-up period. In the control simulation (CTRL) we prescribe an annually repeating cycle of climatological monthly mean SSTs using the multi-model mean (MMM) of the 'ts' field for the first 200 years of the CMIP5 piControl simulations. Following the CMIP6 protocol (Eyring et al., 2016), greenhouse gas (CO2, CH4, and N2O) concentrations are set at preindustrial (year 1850) values and ozone is prescribed as a zonally averaged monthly mean preindustrial climatology. In two perturbation simulations (4xCO2-FULLCMIP5 and 4xCO2-FULLCMIP6) the same boundary conditions are used as in CTRL, but with an annually repeating cycle of climatological monthly mean SST anomalies added using the MMM 'ts' field for either the CMIP5 or CMIP6 FAST (years 4-10) responses. In both the 4xCO2-FULLCMIP5 and 4xCO2-FULLCMIP6 simulations CO2 is quadrupled from its preindustrial concentration. This enables a like-for-like comparison with the CMIP5 and CMIP6 abrupt-4xCO2 simulations. Two further perturbation simulations (SHET-onlyCMIP5 and SHET-onlyCMIP6) are used to isolate the effect of differences in SH extratropical SST patterns alone. In both simulations CO2 is kept at preindustrial values, and CTRL SSTs are used with the SST anomalies from either 4xCO2-FULLCMIP5 or 4xCO2-FULLCMIP6 added poleward of 18°S. Similarly to McCrystall et al. (2020), the SST anomalies are smoothed between 18°S and 29°S using a cosine squared weighting function with weights of 0 at 18°S and 1 at 29°S. This minimizes sharp gradients in SST across the tropical-extratropical boundary. To enable a clean determination of the effects of SST patterns alone, in all perturbation simulations we keep sea ice fixed at preindustrial values by only adding SST anomalies where the MMM sea ice concentration in the CMIP5 piControl simulations is less than 15% (i.e., equatorward of the sea ice edge). Furthermore, to remove the effect of differences in the change in global mean SST, the SST anomalies in each CMIP model are normalised by the respective global mean SST anomaly and then scaled to a global mean value of 2.2 K (the pooled MMM of CMIP5 and CMIP6). The CMIP6 FAST SST anomalies are added to the CMIP5 preindustrial control SSTs, so as to isolate the effect of differences in the fast SST responses between CMIP5 and CMIP6, and not the effect of differences in the base state. |
Type Of Material | Database/Collection of data |
Year Produced | 2020 |
Provided To Others? | Yes |
URL | https://zenodo.org/record/4250119 |
Title | Dataset for: Wood et al Role of sea surface temperature patterns for the Southern hemisphere jet stream response to CO2 forcing |
Description | This is a dataset of output from version 4 of the Reading Intermediate Global Circulation Model (IGCM4) that was used in the article Wood et al (2020) 'Role of sea surface temperature patterns for the Southern hemisphere jet stream response to CO2 forcing' published in Environmental Research Letters (https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abce27). To isolate the role of sea surface temperature (SST) patterns for the Southern Hemisphere circulation response in the abrupt-4xCO2 experiments in CMIP5 and CMIP6, we perform experiments using IGCM4. Five 120-year long simulations were performed following a 5-year spin-up period. In the control simulation (CTRL) we prescribe an annually repeating cycle of climatological monthly mean SSTs using the multi-model mean (MMM) of the 'ts' field for the first 200 years of the CMIP5 piControl simulations. Following the CMIP6 protocol (Eyring et al., 2016), greenhouse gas (CO2, CH4, and N2O) concentrations are set at preindustrial (year 1850) values and ozone is prescribed as a zonally averaged monthly mean preindustrial climatology. In two perturbation simulations (4xCO2-FULLCMIP5 and 4xCO2-FULLCMIP6) the same boundary conditions are used as in CTRL, but with an annually repeating cycle of climatological monthly mean SST anomalies added using the MMM 'ts' field for either the CMIP5 or CMIP6 FAST (years 4-10) responses. In both the 4xCO2-FULLCMIP5 and 4xCO2-FULLCMIP6 simulations CO2 is quadrupled from its preindustrial concentration. This enables a like-for-like comparison with the CMIP5 and CMIP6 abrupt-4xCO2 simulations. Two further perturbation simulations (SHET-onlyCMIP5 and SHET-onlyCMIP6) are used to isolate the effect of differences in SH extratropical SST patterns alone. In both simulations CO2 is kept at preindustrial values, and CTRL SSTs are used with the SST anomalies from either 4xCO2-FULLCMIP5 or 4xCO2-FULLCMIP6 added poleward of 18°S. Similarly to McCrystall et al. (2020), the SST anomalies are smoothed between 18°S and 29°S using a cosine squared weighting function with weights of 0 at 18°S and 1 at 29°S. This minimizes sharp gradients in SST across the tropical-extratropical boundary. To enable a clean determination of the effects of SST patterns alone, in all perturbation simulations we keep sea ice fixed at preindustrial values by only adding SST anomalies where the MMM sea ice concentration in the CMIP5 piControl simulations is less than 15% (i.e., equatorward of the sea ice edge). Furthermore, to remove the effect of differences in the change in global mean SST, the SST anomalies in each CMIP model are normalised by the respective global mean SST anomaly and then scaled to a global mean value of 2.2 K (the pooled MMM of CMIP5 and CMIP6). The CMIP6 FAST SST anomalies are added to the CMIP5 preindustrial control SSTs, so as to isolate the effect of differences in the fast SST responses between CMIP5 and CMIP6, and not the effect of differences in the base state. |
Type Of Material | Database/Collection of data |
Year Produced | 2020 |
Provided To Others? | Yes |
URL | https://zenodo.org/record/4250118 |
Description | Barcelona Supercomputing Centre CASE PhD project - Trascasa-Castro |
Organisation | Barcelona Supercomputing Center |
Country | Spain |
Sector | Public |
PI Contribution | Supervisor to a PhD project funded by the NERC PANORAMA Doctoral Training Partnership |
Collaborator Contribution | CASE supervisor to a PhD project funded by the NERC PANORAMA Doctoral Training Partnership |
Impact | No outcomes as yet. |
Start Year | 2019 |
Description | Co-lead of WCRP/SPARC Activity on Atmospheric Temperature Changes and their Drivers |
Organisation | World Climate Research Programme |
Country | Switzerland |
Sector | Academic/University |
PI Contribution | Co-lead of a team of ~25 international scientists with shared interests in atmospheric temperature trends and mechanisms. Held workshops in 2017 and 2018. |
Collaborator Contribution | Contributing to joint research papers and attending activity workshops. |
Impact | Journal papers: Steiner, A. K., F. Ladstädter, W. J. Randel, A. C. Maycock, C. Claud, Q. Fu, H. Gleisner, L. Haimberger, S.-P. Ho, P. Keckhut, T. Leblanc, C. Mears, L. Polvani , B. Santer, T. Schmidt, V. Sofieva, R. Wing, C.-Z. Zou, Observed temperature changes in the troposphere and stratosphere over 1979 to 2018, J. Climate, submitted. Maycock AC, Randel WJ, Steiner AK, Karpechko AY, Cristy J, Saunders R, Thompson DWJ, Zou C-Z, Chrysanthou A, Abraham NL, Akiyoshi H, Archibald AT, Butchart N, Chipperfield M, Dameris M, Deushi M, Dhomse S, Di Genova G, Jöckel P, Kinnison DE, Kirner O, Ladstädter F, Michou M, Morgenstern O, O'Connor F, Oman L, Pitari G, Plummer DA, Revell LE, Rozanov E, Stenke A, Visioni D, Yamashita Y, Zeng G. 2018. Revisiting the mystery of recent stratospheric temperature trends. Geophysical Research Letters. 45(18), pp. 9919-9933. |
Start Year | 2016 |
Description | Co-lead of working group for WCRP/SPARC SOLARIS-HEPPA activity |
Organisation | World Climate Research Programme |
Department | Stratosphere-troposphere Processes And their Role in Climate) |
Country | Germany |
Sector | Academic/University |
PI Contribution | Co-leading activity analysing output from the SPARC Chemistry Climate Model Initiative output. |
Collaborator Contribution | Members are leading studies of the SPARC Chemistry Climate Model Initiative output. |
Impact | Multi-disciplinary team including solar physics and atmospheric modelling scientists. |
Start Year | 2017 |
Description | ISSI team on Tropical Width Impacts on the STratosphere (TWIST) |
Organisation | International Space Science Institute (ISSI) |
Country | Switzerland |
Sector | Academic/University |
PI Contribution | International group of scientists funded by the International Space Science Institute to hold two joint meetings to address the challenge of measuring changes in the width of the tropical belt in the stratosphere. PI will attend meetings. |
Collaborator Contribution | International group of scientists funded by the International Space Science Institute to hold two joint meetings to address the challenge of measuring changes in the width of the tropical belt in the stratosphere. Collaborators attend meetings. |
Impact | None as yet. |
Start Year | 2019 |
Description | Member of International Space Science Institute team on Tropical Width Diagnostics Intercomparison Project |
Organisation | International Space Science Institute (ISSI) |
Country | Switzerland |
Sector | Academic/University |
PI Contribution | International group of scientists funded by the International Space Science Institute to hold two joint meetings to address the challenge of measuring changes in the width of the tropical belt. PI attended meetings and contributed to remote meetings and joint journal paper. |
Collaborator Contribution | International group of scientists funded by the International Space Science Institute to hold two joint meetings to address the challenge of measuring changes in the width of the tropical belt. Collaborators attended meetings and contributed to remote meetings and joint journal paper. |
Impact | Journal paper published: Waugh, D., Grise K., Seviour W., Davis S., Davis N., Adam O., Son S-W, Simpson I, Staten P., Maycock A. C., Ummenhofer C., Birner T., Ming A. (2018) Revisiting the Relationship among Metrics of Tropical Expansion, J. Climate, 31, 7565-7581. |
Start Year | 2017 |
Description | Member of US Clivar Working Group on the Changing Width of the Tropical Belt |
Organisation | US Climate Variability and Predictability |
Country | United States |
Sector | Charity/Non Profit |
PI Contribution | Member of international scientific Working Group researching evidence for recent changes in the width of the tropical belt. Remotely attended team meetings. |
Collaborator Contribution | Members attended two working group meetings in Bloomington, IN (October 2016) and Boulder, CO (October 2017). |
Impact | Journal papers: Staten PW, Grise KM, Davis SM, Karnauskas KB, Waugh DW, Maycock A, Fu Q, Cook K, Adam O, Simpson IR, Allen RJ, Rosenlof K, Chen G, Ummenhofer CC, Quan X-W, Kossin JP, Davis NA, Son S-W. 2020. Tropical widening: from global variations to regional impacts. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, in press. Grise KM, Davis SM, Simpson IR, Waugh DW, Fu Q, Allen RJ, Rosenlof KH, Ummenhofer CC, Karnauskas KB, Maycock AC, Quan X-W, Birner T, Staten PW. 2019. Recent Tropical Expansion: Natural Variability or Forced Response?. Journal of Climate. 32(5), pp. 1551-1571 Waugh DW, Grise KM, Seviour WJM, Davis SM, Davis N, Adam O, Son S-W, Simpson IR, Staten PW, Maycock AC, Ummenhofer CC, Birner T, Ming A. 2018. Revisiting the Relationship among Metrics of Tropical Expansion. Journal of Climate. 31, pp. 7565-7581 |
Start Year | 2017 |
Description | Met Office CASE PhD project - Dow |
Organisation | Meteorological Office UK |
Country | United Kingdom |
Sector | Academic/University |
PI Contribution | Supervisor to a PhD project funded by the NERC SPHERES Doctoral Training Partnership |
Collaborator Contribution | CASE supervisor to a PhD project funded by the NERC SPHERES Doctoral Training Partnership |
Impact | Not known |
Start Year | 2018 |
Description | NOAA CIRES Visiting Fellowship |
Organisation | National Oceanic And Atmospheric Administration |
Department | Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL) |
Country | United States |
Sector | Public |
PI Contribution | From June to September 2016 I spent 3 months visiting the Chemical Sciences Division at the NOAA ESRL laboratory in Boulder, CO, USA. I worked on a joint project relating to changes in the width of the tropical belt which is linked to my involvement with an internationally coordinated activity run as a US CLIVAR Working Group. https://usclivar.org/working-groups/changing-width-tropical-belt-working-group |
Collaborator Contribution | CIRES funded my travel and accommodation during my stay. |
Impact | The work performed during my visiting fellowship is contributing to two international science activities: (1) US CLIVAR Working Group on the Changing Width of the Tropical Belt; (2) International Space Science Institute team on a Tropical Width Metrics Intercomparison Project. |
Start Year | 2016 |
Description | WEMC NERC Industrial CASE PhD project |
Organisation | World Energy and Meteorology Council |
Country | United Kingdom |
Sector | Charity/Non Profit |
PI Contribution | Supervisor of NERC Industrial CASE PhD project |
Collaborator Contribution | Joint supervisor and CASE partner for NERC Industrial CASE project. |
Impact | The project is multi-disciplinary between physical and social scientists. |
Start Year | 2018 |
Title | Priestley-Centre/Near_term_warming: v1.2 |
Description | Official release of data and code repository for the paper: McKenna C. M., A. C. Maycock, P. M. Forster, C. J. Smith, K. B. Tokarska, Stringent mitigation substantially reduces risk of unprecedented near-term warming rates, Nature Climate Change (2020); https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-00957-9. |
Type Of Technology | Software |
Year Produced | 2020 |
Open Source License? | Yes |
URL | https://zenodo.org/record/3762041 |
Title | Priestley-Centre/Near_term_warming: v1.2 |
Description | Official release of data and code repository for the paper: McKenna C. M., A. C. Maycock, P. M. Forster, C. J. Smith, K. B. Tokarska, Stringent mitigation substantially reduces risk of unprecedented near-term warming rates, Nature Climate Change (2020); https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-00957-9. |
Type Of Technology | Software |
Year Produced | 2020 |
Open Source License? | Yes |
URL | https://zenodo.org/record/4252506 |
Description | Activity for postgraduate researcher field trip |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Local |
Primary Audience | Postgraduate students |
Results and Impact | I developed an activity for postgraduate researchers from the PANORAMA Doctoral Training Partnership as part of their induction week at Malham Tarn. We went and measured air quality in the area using particle counters. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2019 |
Description | Be Curious Science Festival, University of Leeds |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Regional |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | I coordinated a climate themed stand at the Be Curious Science Festival at the University of Leeds in March 2017 on the climate of Yorkshire in the past, present and future. The stand consisted of animations of climate model output, a model of the Yorkshire area during the last glacial maximum and information relating to climate change. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2017 |
Description | Gave research lecture to prospective undergraduate students at Open Day |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an open day or visit at my research institution |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | Gave taster lecture to prospective undergraduate students who are applying for Environmental Sciences and Meteorology and Climate Science programmes at Leeds University. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2017 |
Description | Interview Paul Hudson Weather Show on the Paris Agreement |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A broadcast e.g. TV/radio/film/podcast (other than news/press) |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Regional |
Primary Audience | Media (as a channel to the public) |
Results and Impact | I gave a short interview on the Paul Hudson Weather Show (BBC Radio Leeds) about the USA withdrawal from the Paris Agreement. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2019 |
Description | Interview for Tern productions for Channel 4 programme Britains Wildest Weather |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A broadcast e.g. TV/radio/film/podcast (other than news/press) |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | Interviewed by Tern TV production company for Britain's Wildest Weather TV show on Channel 4 in December 2017. Interview footage was not used in final cut. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2017 |
Description | Interview on Paul Hudson Weather Show about COP25 |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A broadcast e.g. TV/radio/film/podcast (other than news/press) |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Regional |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | I gave a short interview on the Paul Hudson Weather Show (BBC Radio Leeds) about the UNFCCC 25th Conference of the Parties. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2019 |
Description | Keynote talk at launch of Leeds Institute for Fluid Dynamics |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Other audiences |
Results and Impact | I was invited to give a keynote talk at the launch of the Leeds Institute for Fluid Dynamics, a cross-department initiative for fluids research at the University of Leeds. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2019 |
Description | Lecturer at National Centre for Atmospheric Science Introduction to Atmospheric Science course |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Postgraduate students |
Results and Impact | Gave lecture on 'What is Climate?' as part of NCAS Introduction to Atmospheric Science training course in January 2019 |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2020 |
Description | Lecturer at National Centre for Atmospheric Science Introduction to Atmospheric Science course |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Postgraduate students |
Results and Impact | Gave lecture on 'What is Climate?' as part of NCAS Introduction to Atmospheric Science training course in January 2018 |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2018 |
Description | Lecturer at National Centre for Atmospheric Science Introduction to Atmospheric Science course |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Postgraduate students |
Results and Impact | Gave lecture on 'What is Climate?' as part of NCAS Introduction to Atmospheric Science training course in January 2019 |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2019 |
Description | Met Office Academic Partnership Annual Poster Session (Exeter) |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Postgraduate students |
Results and Impact | I gave an "inspirational" presentation to PhD students from institutes engaged with the Met Office Academic Partnership (Exeter, Oxford, Reading and Leeds Universities). |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2016 |
Description | Participation in Royal Academy of Engineering INGENIOUS project workshop |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Schools |
Results and Impact | The event brought together local schoolchildren, sustainable development practioners, academics and charitable organisations to share our ideas and visions for a sustainable future. A total of around 50 people attended the event. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2018 |
Description | Pint of Science Festival in Leeds |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Regional |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | I gave a public talk on climate change as part of the Pint of Science festival held in Leeds in March 2016. Around 40 members of the public attended the talk which was hosted in the local pub. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2016 |
Description | Presentation to the Parties of the Montreal Protocol at the 29th Meeting of the Parties to the Montreal Protocol |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
Results and Impact | Participated in expert Science Panel in the plenary session of the 29th Meeting of the Parties to the Montreal Protocol in October 2017. Presentation was received by the delegates of the Parties of the Montreal Protocol and was live streamed online. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2017 |
Description | Provided quote for Carbon Brief article |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | Quote provided for online article by Carbon Brief relating to a new study in the journal Nature about changing climate variability. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2018 |
URL | https://www.carbonbrief.org/long-term-climate-variability-could-fall-world-warms |
Description | Quote for National Centre for Atmospheric Science on cold weather in February 2018 |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | Provided simple explanation for cause of cold weather in February 2018 which was tweeted by the National Centre for Atmospheric Science. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2018 |
URL | https://twitter.com/AtmosScience/status/968512458536181765 |
Description | Radio interview about Australian wildfires |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A broadcast e.g. TV/radio/film/podcast (other than news/press) |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Regional |
Primary Audience | Media (as a channel to the public) |
Results and Impact | I gave a 30 minute interview on the Beth McCarthy Show (BBC Radio York) about the Australian Wildfires. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2019 |
Description | Royal Meteorological Society National Meeting on Recent climate changes in high Southern latitudes (London) |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | I gave a talk entitled "An update on the ozone hole" at the Royal Meteorological Society National Meeting. The meeting was live streamed over the web. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2016 |
Description | School visit (Birmingham) |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Local |
Primary Audience | Schools |
Results and Impact | I attended Chivenor Primary School to give the assembly to Key Stage 2 children about climate change and spent the day in classes helping the students work on activities related to climate change (e.g., writing draft letter to their MP). |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2019 |
Description | Seminar (Max Planck Institute for Meteorology) |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | I gave a Klima Kampus colloquium talk at the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology in Hamburg about my research. It was attended by around 50 staff and students from the University of Hamburg and the Max Planck Institute. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2019 |
Description | Seminar at Karlsruhe Institute for Technology in Germany |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Other audiences |
Results and Impact | Gave invited seminar to group at Karlsruhe Institute for Technology. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2018 |
URL | http://www.imk.kit.edu/english/259.php/event/34617 |
Description | Talk to Royal Meteorological Society Yorkshire Local Centre |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | 50-60 people attended the talk at the University of Leeds and a further 10-20 watched online remotely. The talk discussed the Beast from the East in February 2018. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2018 |