Uncertainty reduction in Models For Understanding deveLopment Applications (UMFULA)
Lead Research Organisation:
University of Cape Town
Department Name: Oceanography
Abstract
Abstracts are not currently available in GtR for all funded research. This is normally because the abstract was not required at the time of proposal submission, but may be because it included sensitive information such as personal details.
Planned Impact
Who might benefit from our research? Case study participants: Rufiji river basin: the government River Basin Water Office and the public-private partnership Southern Agricultural Growth Corridor of Tanzania; southern Malawi: Ministry of Agriculture and Irrigation and Water Resources, Chikwawa, Nsanje and Thoyolo District Assemblies. Case study outputs will benefit multilateral development banks and the southern African Climate Resilient Infrastructure Facility-CRIDF, who advise on infrastructural development. National and regional decision-makers in C&SA and sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) including Southern African Development Community, WATERNET, CRIDF. Programmes concerned with climate services, e.g. Global Framework for Climate Services, CCAFS, IRI, CLIVAR, ESPA, CARIAA ASSAR. Met Services in Malawi, Mozambique, South Africa and Tanzania. Universities of Zambia and Yaounde. African citizens vulnerable to climate related risks, or reliant on infrastructure/resources that may be affected by climate change (now-40 years on).
How might they benefit from our research? Through deep engagement, national and local government and private sector stakeholders in both Malawi and Tanzania will be enabled to drive a process of improved use of climate services in decision-making processes. This is critical in both case study contexts which have been selected based on the climate risk to water and agriculture infrastructure and the implications it has for economic development. The process will be supported by the Met Services whose capacity will be built to produce country-specific contextualized projections based on the outputs of climate models given their responsibility in country to do so. Active engagement of Met Services within the case study co-production will also build partnerships that extend beyond the project lifetime and can inform on-going country policy processes: for example the development of the National Adaptation Plans. The ultimate aim is that improved use of climate services in decision-making benefits African citizens, not only in Malawi and Tanzania but also further afield, through the proactive communication of robust theoretical and applied findings to decision-makers across C&SA and further disseminated for use throughout SSA. By engaging with major initiatives such as GFCS (which is piloting programmes in both case study countries) we will have outreach and potential impact well beyond the two case studies. Univ Zambia & Yaounde and African Met Services will participate in a 'big science' project involving state-of-the-art high resolution models.
As a team we have a strong track record of applied research and proven impact in climate science and adaptation across Africa. Our approach includes
Co-production of knowledge and stakeholder-driven deliberative processes as the key methodology in the case studies; in which case study participants are engaged throughout the process and have co-ownership of the process and, by definition, the findings will be targeted to be of direct applicability and achieve maximum development impact.
Embedding impact in our management structures to maximize impact over the lifetime of the project and ensure post-project sustainability
1) Impact sub-group led by KULIMA
2) Advisory Panel, high level strategic guidance, through bi-annual TCs with representation from key regional organisations, public and private sector, donors and multi-laterals (eg agreed participation of World Bank staff)
A proactive approach to collaboration with other RPCs and the CCKE, eg invitation to sit on panels to maximise synergistic findings and outreach opportunities
Seizing opportunities for development of African capacity through providing bursaries to students in C&SA countries, making it a policy for senior team members and PDRAs to give guest lectures/research training sessions during C&SA visits (at university and other organisations eg Government) and offer some remote research co-supervision.
How might they benefit from our research? Through deep engagement, national and local government and private sector stakeholders in both Malawi and Tanzania will be enabled to drive a process of improved use of climate services in decision-making processes. This is critical in both case study contexts which have been selected based on the climate risk to water and agriculture infrastructure and the implications it has for economic development. The process will be supported by the Met Services whose capacity will be built to produce country-specific contextualized projections based on the outputs of climate models given their responsibility in country to do so. Active engagement of Met Services within the case study co-production will also build partnerships that extend beyond the project lifetime and can inform on-going country policy processes: for example the development of the National Adaptation Plans. The ultimate aim is that improved use of climate services in decision-making benefits African citizens, not only in Malawi and Tanzania but also further afield, through the proactive communication of robust theoretical and applied findings to decision-makers across C&SA and further disseminated for use throughout SSA. By engaging with major initiatives such as GFCS (which is piloting programmes in both case study countries) we will have outreach and potential impact well beyond the two case studies. Univ Zambia & Yaounde and African Met Services will participate in a 'big science' project involving state-of-the-art high resolution models.
As a team we have a strong track record of applied research and proven impact in climate science and adaptation across Africa. Our approach includes
Co-production of knowledge and stakeholder-driven deliberative processes as the key methodology in the case studies; in which case study participants are engaged throughout the process and have co-ownership of the process and, by definition, the findings will be targeted to be of direct applicability and achieve maximum development impact.
Embedding impact in our management structures to maximize impact over the lifetime of the project and ensure post-project sustainability
1) Impact sub-group led by KULIMA
2) Advisory Panel, high level strategic guidance, through bi-annual TCs with representation from key regional organisations, public and private sector, donors and multi-laterals (eg agreed participation of World Bank staff)
A proactive approach to collaboration with other RPCs and the CCKE, eg invitation to sit on panels to maximise synergistic findings and outreach opportunities
Seizing opportunities for development of African capacity through providing bursaries to students in C&SA countries, making it a policy for senior team members and PDRAs to give guest lectures/research training sessions during C&SA visits (at university and other organisations eg Government) and offer some remote research co-supervision.
Organisations
People |
ORCID iD |
Chris Reason (Principal Investigator) |
Publications
Barimalala R
(2018)
Madagascar Influence on the South Indian Ocean Convergence Zone, the Mozambique Channel Trough and Southern African Rainfall
in Geophysical Research Letters
Barimalala R
(2021)
The influence of southeastern African river valley jets on regional rainfall
in Climate Dynamics
Barimalala R
(2020)
Variability in the Mozambique Channel Trough and Impacts on Southeast African Rainfall
in Journal of Climate
Blamey R
(2018)
The Influence of Atmospheric Rivers over the South Atlantic on Winter Rainfall in South Africa
in Journal of Hydrometeorology
Burls N
(2019)
The Cape Town "Day Zero" drought and Hadley cell expansion
in npj Climate and Atmospheric Science
Desbiolles F
(2020)
Role of ocean mesoscale structures in shaping the Angola-Low pressure system and the southern Africa rainfall
in Climate Dynamics
Driver P
(2018)
Modelling the precipitation response over southern Africa to the 2009-2010 El Niño using a stretched grid global atmospheric model
in Climate Dynamics
Hart N
(2018)
On the Likelihood of Tropical-Extratropical Cloud Bands in the South Indian Convergence Zone during ENSO Events
in Journal of Climate
James R
(2020)
Coupled Climate Model Simulation of Tropical-Extratropical Cloud Bands over Southern Africa
in Journal of Climate
Mahlalela P
(2018)
Mechanisms behind early winter rainfall variability in the southwestern Cape, South Africa
in Climate Dynamics
Description | Analysed the variability of the Botswana High circulation system that is crucial for southern African summer rainfall. Developed a climatology of severe convective rainfall environments for South Africa Analysed the impacts of the 2015/16 and 2009/2010 ENSO events on southern Africa and the recent Cape Town drought Better understanding of the fundamentals of extreme events, climate change and variability over southern Africa |
Exploitation Route | The findings will be of direct relevance to long range weather forecasters, climate prediction scientists and the climate change impacts community |
Sectors | Agriculture, Food and Drink,Energy,Environment |
Description | Information brochures have been produced for policy makers, government and NGOs |
First Year Of Impact | 2016 |
Sector | Agriculture, Food and Drink,Environment |
Impact Types | Societal,Economic,Policy & public services |