Securing Multidisciplinary UndeRstanding and Prediction of Hiatus and Surge events (SMURPHS)

Lead Research Organisation: University of Leeds
Department Name: School of Earth and Environment

Abstract

Climate is currently changing mostly because of additional greenhouse gases, emitted through human activity, which are heating up the planet. Since future warming of climate is likely to cause damage to societies, governments are coordinating efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to avoid these damaging consequences. However, despite the continuing rises in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, the rate of warming of the Earth's surface has declined somewhat since the 1990s. While it is tempting to find a simple reason for this slowing (or "hiatus") in global surface warming, the climate system is extremely complex and there are many factors which can explain the lumps and bumps in the surface temperature record which also include increases (or "surges") in the rate of warming. The goal of our proposed programme of research is to understand much more fully how all the contributing factors can explain past hiatus and surge (H/S) events and this will ultimately help improve predictions of future climate change over the coming decades and far into the future.

The potential causes of H/S events includes: natural (so-called unforced) climate variability, due to complex interplay between the atmosphere, oceans and land; natural climate change due to volcanic eruptions or changes in the brightness of the sun; changes in how heat is moved into the deep oceans due to natural variations or human-caused factors; changes in emissions of gases such as methane due to human activity; limitations in the distribution of temperature observations, such that the hiatus is partly an artefact of imperfect observations. Rather than one single cause it is likely that H/S events are caused by a combination of factors. This is why a large team with a broad range of expertise is required to evaluate the different processes together. Our project, Securing Multidisciplinary UndeRstanding and Prediction of Hiatus and Surge events (SMURPHS) has brought together a comprehensive community of researchers from 9 UK institutes supported by 5 project partners including the Met Office who are experts in the atmosphere, the oceans and the land surface.

SMURPHS has 3 broad objectives, achieved through 6 research themes, which exploit theory, observations and detailed computer modelling. Objective 1 is to build a basic framework for interpreting H/S events in terms of energy moving between the atmosphere and ocean and to determine characteristics of and similarities between H/S events. Objective 2 is to understand mechanisms that could trigger H/S events and extend their length, considering both human and natural factors. Objective 3 is to assess whether H/S events can be predicted and what information is needed for near-term prediction of climate over coming decades which is important for how societies adapt to change. To meet these objectives scientists from a range of different disciplines will work on each of these possibilities and communicate their findings across the team. SMURPHS will produce a wide-ranging synthesis of its results.

SMURPHS will have many beneficiaries. Beyond the global scientific community, improved understanding of H/S events is important at national and international levels for designing policies to control future greenhouse gas emissions and for effective adaptation to climate change. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments have deeply influenced climate policy development at the international and national levels. Scientists involved in SMURPHS have contributed significantly to previous IPCC reports, and SMURPHS science and scientists would contribute significantly to future such assessments.

Planned Impact

1. The World Climate Research Program (WCRP) 6th Climate Model Intercomparison (CMIP6) Committee, participating climate research centres, and the international research community will benefit from new radiative forcing scenarios with quantified uncertainties promoted through WCRP/CMIP6 planning meetings. SMURPHS will contribute directly to the CMIP6 plans and host relevant meetings during the project. The SMURPHS webpage will provide the latest information to the international modelling centres and a contact list will be drawn up for provision of regular notifications.
2. International policy makers representing governments in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) negotiations; National policy makers in the Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC) and the Committee for Climate Change (CCC) and European Union counterparts; and International and national non-governmental organisations (NGOs) will benefit from improved understanding of decadal variability in global mean surface temperature rise and of the relationship between short term and longer term trends.
Two critical issues for these groups are: (i) implications of the recent hiatus for long term climate change (mitigation policy), and (ii) constraints on the rate of climate change over the next few decades (adaptation policy). We will organize two international workshops to synthesize research findings and bring together additional international perspectives to provide an overall assessment. Key outputs will be two assessment papers for input to the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC (AR6). Lack of complete understanding of the hiatus was a major gap in IPCC AR5, which SMURPHS will address directly. As part of these workshops, a discussion session will be held with invited policymakers from DECC and other government departments to explore the implications of our findings. We also plan to hold a side event on historic temperature trends at a UNFCCC Conference of the Parties (expected in December 2017).
3. The Met Office (MO) has strategic plans to improve near term prediction of climate change and with DECC/DEFRA and CCC will produce revised mitigation pathways to avoid dangerous climate change. The MO will benefit from improved quantification of past radiative forcing and understanding of variability in global-mean surface temperature rise, resulting in improved models and predictions. A close working relationship with the MO is established and a coordinated programme of work has been designed. MO colleagues will attend project meetings and SMURPHS PDRAs will spend time based at the MO. The Met Office Academic Partnership involving the Universities of Exeter, Leeds, Oxford and Reading provides an additional mechanism for collaboration.
4. The general public and the media. SMURPHS will benefit the interested public by enabling clearer and more precise explanations of the hiatus and implications for long-term climate change. Several media articles used poor understanding of the hiatus to challenge the Government's emission reduction targets in 2013. In response the Science Media Centre (SMC) prepared a briefing note on the hiatus with significant contributions from Forster, Sutton, Allan and Hawkins. We will work with the SMC to update this briefing note at the end of the project, and will discuss holding a briefing meeting for interested journalists. Shine is very active in ongoing Royal Society efforts to explain climate change science to a wide audience via a number of activities, and expects to continue to be so during SMURPHS. Outputs from the project will be written up in a form that is accessible for the interested general public on Hawkins' climate-lab-book blog which also provides a mechanism for public engagement and feedback. Key findings will be communicated on Twitter. All PIs and Co-Is have press experience and engagement with the media will continue throughout the project.

Publications

10 25 50
 
Description We have understood three things. That the warming rate in the ocean varies of decadal timescales and the ocean preconditions itself during a cool phase for future rapid warming. This means we can expected rapid warming over the next decade.
Exploitation Route Findings are already being extensively referenced within IPCC report for AR6 and many of the SMURPHS teams are authors
Sectors Energy,Environment

URL https://smurphs.leeds.ac.uk/
 
Description Our work on the remaining carbon budget was used in the IPCC SR1.5 report and also again used in the Committee on Climate Change net zero report. FaIR model calculations developed under the SMURPHS project were used in both reports. The CCC report directly led to the net-zero 2050 date becoming law in the UK.
First Year Of Impact 2018
Sector Aerospace, Defence and Marine,Agriculture, Food and Drink,Chemicals,Communities and Social Services/Policy,Construction,Creative Economy,Digital/Communication/Information Technologies (including Software),Education,Electronics,Energy,Environment,Financial Services, and Management Consultancy,Healthcare,Leisure Activities, including Sports, Recreation and Tourism,Government, Democracy and Justice,Manufacturing, including Industrial Biotechology,Culture, Heritage, Museums and Collections,Pharmaceu
Impact Types Cultural,Societal,Economic,Policy & public services

 
Description Appointed to the Committee on Climate Change (CCC) in December 2018
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Implementation circular/rapid advice/letter to e.g. Ministry of Health
Impact Piers Forster has been appointed to the Committee on Climate Change (CCC) which is independent advice to government on building a low-carbon economy and preparing for climate change. He takes up the post of climate scientist on the Committee for a five-year term.
URL https://www.theccc.org.uk/2018/12/03/professor-piers-forster-joins-committee-on-climate-change/
 
Description BEIS Climate Science for Decision-making
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a advisory committee
 
Description CCC Net Zero Report Launch
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a advisory committee
Impact The launch of the Net Zero report has brought about heightened realisation that we all need to take action to protect the environment we live in. The report highlights the speed this is needed and media coverage and launch events have seen public opinion moving in the right direction. There has been much involvement with the government, giving evidence at both Scottish and English parliaments to give evidence on the reports scientific contents.
URL https://www.theccc.org.uk/publication/net-zero-the-uks-contribution-to-stopping-global-warming/
 
Description Committee on Climate Change report: Major shift in UK land use needed to deliver Net Zero emissions
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a advisory committee
Impact There are five objectives for new policy: •Increase tree planting - increasing UK forestry cover from 13% to at least 17% by 2050 by planting around 30,000 hectares (90 - 120 million trees) of broadleaf and conifer woodland each year. •Encourage low-carbon farming practices - such as 'controlled-release' fertilisers, improving livestock health and slurry acidification. •Restore peatlands - restoring at least 50% of upland peat and 25% of lowland peat. •Encourage bioenergy crops - expanding UK energy crops to around 23,000 hectares each year. •Reduce food waste and consumption of the most carbon-intensive foods - reduce the 13.6 million tonnes of food waste produced annually by 20% and the consumption of beef, lamb and dairy by at least 20% per person, well within current healthy eating guidelines.
URL https://www.theccc.org.uk/2020/01/23/major-shift-in-uk-land-use-needed-to-deliver-net-zero-emissions...
 
Description Heathrow 3rd Runway Select Committee, Westminster, London
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a advisory committee
 
Description IPCC 1.5C meetings in Malmo, Sweden
Geographic Reach Multiple continents/international 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a advisory committee
 
Description Invited roundtable discussion on climate change and national security at Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies at Cabinet Offices, London
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a advisory committee
Impact Impact on policymakers interested in the effects of climate change on national security issues.
 
Description Launch of the IPCC SR1.5 Report in London October 2018
Geographic Reach Multiple continents/international 
Policy Influence Type Gave evidence to a government review
Impact Following the IPCC Special Report on 1.5°C , The most policy-relevant solution focussed report on climate change yet. In October 2018 there was a launch event in London to target the media, Government and ministers to raise awareness and significance of the report on a global and local scale. The launch event was to an audience of roughly 300
URL https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/
 
Description Meeting with Alex Sobel MP
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Gave evidence to a government review
 
Description NHS England Net Zero Expert Panel
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Membership of a guideline committee
URL https://www.england.nhs.uk/2020/01/greener-nhs-campaign-to-tackle-climate-health-emergency/
 
Description NHS Net Zero
Geographic Reach Local/Municipal/Regional 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a advisory committee
 
Description (Blue-Action) - Arctic Impact on Weather and Climate
Amount € 8,103,125 (EUR)
Funding ID 727852 
Organisation European Commission 
Sector Public
Country European Union (EU)
Start 12/2016 
End 02/2021
 
Description (COMFORT) - Our common future ocean in the Earth system - quantifying coupled cycles of carbon, oxygen, and nutrients for determining and achieving safe operating spaces with respect to tipping points
Amount € 8,482,147 (EUR)
Funding ID 820989 
Organisation European Commission 
Sector Public
Country European Union (EU)
Start 08/2019 
End 08/2023
 
Description Consequences of Arctic Warming for European Climate and Extreme Weather
Amount £290,138 (GBP)
Funding ID NE/V004875/1 
Organisation Natural Environment Research Council 
Sector Public
Country United Kingdom
Start 11/2020 
End 11/2023
 
Description Constraining Uncertainty of Multi-Decadal Climate Projections (CONSTRAIN)
Amount € 7,999,803 (EUR)
Funding ID 820829 
Organisation European Commission H2020 
Sector Public
Country Belgium
Start 06/2019 
End 06/2023
 
Description Emergence of Climate Hazards
Amount £1,600,000 (GBP)
Funding ID NE/S004602/1 
Organisation Natural Environment Research Council 
Sector Public
Country United Kingdom
Start 02/2019 
End 01/2022
 
Description Leverhulme Trust new UK centre for innovative research - The Leverhulme Centre for Climate Change Mitigation
Amount £400,000 (GBP)
Organisation The Leverhulme Trust 
Sector Charity/Non Profit
Country United Kingdom
Start 01/2016 
 
Description NI: NEW NORMAL - NEar surface Warming in the INdian Ocean and Rainfall Monsoon Anomaly Links
Amount £101,125 (GBP)
Funding ID NE/W003813/1 
Organisation Natural Environment Research Council 
Sector Public
Country United Kingdom
Start 07/2021 
End 07/2023
 
Description Wider Impacts of Subpolar nortH atlantic decadal variaBility on the OceaN and atmospherE' (WISHBONE)
Amount £285,007 (GBP)
Funding ID NE/T013540/1 
Organisation Natural Environment Research Council 
Sector Public
Country United Kingdom
Start 08/2020 
End 08/2023
 
Title Intermediate resolution climate model FORTE2 
Description This is a significantly updated version of a fast, inexpensive and low resolution coupled climate model developed previously at the National Oceanography Centre and used for idealised climate experiments.The updated version now runs on parallel processors using MPI software, has a more advanced atmospheric component including a resolved stratosphere and can simulate 300+ model years in 1 day of real time. This opens up the possibility of investigating paleaoclimate with a full primitive equation model, as well as studying contemporary climate and performing climate projections at a fraction of the cost of standard CMIP-style climate models. In particular the model is readily configurable, allowing control over land geometry and orography, ocean topography, and geophysical parameters such as rotation rate, solar input, orbital parameters etc. 
Type Of Material Improvements to research infrastructure 
Year Produced 2021 
Provided To Others? Yes  
Impact As it has just been released, impact is restricted to the publication which documents the model performance 
URL https://zenodo.org/record/4108373#.YijBQb3P3rI
 
Title CRUTEM.5.0.0.0: Climatic Research Unit (CRU) gridded near-surface air temperature anomalies over land 
Description CRUTEM (Climatic Research Unit TEMperature) is a gridded dataset of global historical near-surface air temperature anomalies over land at a monthly timescale. It is a collaborative product of the Climatic Research Unit at the University of East Anglia, the Met Office Hadley Centre and the National Centre for Atmospheric Science. CRUTEM also contributes the land air temperature station data to the global (land and ocean) temperature dataset called HadCRUT. CRUTEM5 is the fifth major version of the dataset, covering the time period from 1850, with a spatial resolution of 5° latitude by 5° longitude and a monthly-mean time resolution. The gridded temperature anomaly fields are based on a compilation of monthly-mean temperature observational records from weather stations. This compilation contains 10639 station records, but only 7983 records had the necessary coverage to be used for producing the gridded dataset. Anomalies are differences from average conditions in the 1961-1990 period. Hemispheric and global mean time series of land air temperature anomalies are also provided. 
Type Of Material Database/Collection of data 
Year Produced 2020 
Provided To Others? Yes  
Impact It is being used in the next IPCC assessment as a record of global temperature changes over land. 
URL https://catalogue.ceda.ac.uk/uuid/901f576dacae4e049630ab879d6fb476
 
Title CRUTEM4.5 and HadCRUT4.5 
Description CRUTEM is a gridded dataset of global historical near-surface air temperature anomalies over land. Data are available for each month from January 1850 to present, on a 5 degree grid. The dataset is a collaborative product of the Met Office Hadley Centre and the Climatic Research Unit at the University of East Anglia. The annual update to produce version CRUTEM4.5 was released in 2016 was partially supported by NCAS and partially supported by SMURPHS. The additional data sources that NCAS and SMURPHS support allowed us to add in CRUTEM4.5 are described here: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/crutem4/data/CRUTEM.4.5.0.0_release_notes.html CRUTEM forms the land component of the global land and marine temperature record HadCRUT. CRUTEM4.5 contributed the land component to the 2016 update of the combined dataset, HadCRUT4.5. 
Type Of Material Database/Collection of data 
Year Produced 2016 
Provided To Others? Yes  
Impact The CRUTEM4.5 and HadCRUT4.5 global temperature datasets contributed to the WMO's confirmation that 2016 was hottest on record. https://public.wmo.int/en/media/press-release/wmo-confirms-2016-hottest-year-record-about-11%C2%B0c-above-pre-industrial-era 
URL https://crudata.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/temperature/
 
Title CRUTEM4.6 and HadCRUT4.6 global temperature data 
Description CRUTEM is a gridded dataset of global historical near-surface air temperature anomalies over land. Data are available for each month from January 1850 to present, on a 5 degree grid. The dataset is a collaborative product of the Met Office Hadley Centre and the Climatic Research Unit at the University of East Anglia. The annual update to produce version CRUTEM4.6 was released in 2017 was partially supported by NCAS and partially supported by SMURPHS. The additional data sources that NCAS and SMURPHS support allowed us to add in CRUTEM4.6 are described here: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/crutem4/data/CRUTEM.4.6.0.0_release_notes.html CRUTEM forms the land component of the global land and marine temperature record HadCRUT. CRUTEM4.5 contributed the land component to the 2016 update of the combined dataset, HadCRUT4.5. 
Type Of Material Database/Collection of data 
Year Produced 2017 
Provided To Others? Yes  
Impact The CRUTEM4.6 and HadCRUT4.6 global temperature datasets contributed to the WMO's confirmation that the years 2015-2019 were the five warmest years on record. https://public.wmo.int/en/media/press-release/2019-concludes-decade-of-exceptional-global-heat-and-high-impact-weather 
URL https://crudata.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/temperature/
 
Title DEEP-C top of atmosphere and surface energy fluxes 1985-2016 
Description In order to study which mechanisms explain the reduced global surface warming rate since around 2000, and where the excess energy is due to rising greenhouse gas, the radiation fluxes (OLR, ASR and NET) at the top of atmosphere (TOA) prior to the CERES period are reconstructed using satellite observations, atmospheric reanalysis (ERA-Interim) and AMIP5 model simulations. The new approach using the mass-corrected atmospheric energy divergencies (transports) from ERA-Interim is employed to estimate the net surface energy fluxes. 
Type Of Material Database/Collection of data 
Year Produced 2017 
Provided To Others? Yes  
Impact Use of data in multiple publications. 
URL http://researchdata.reading.ac.uk/111/
 
Title HadCRUT.5.0.0.0: Ensemble near-surface temperature anomaly grids and time series 
Description HadCRUT5 (Met Office Hadley Centre/Climatic Research Unit global surface temperature anomalies, version 5) is a gridded dataset of global historical near-surface air temperature anomalies since the year 1850. It has been developed and maintained by the Met Office Hadley Centre and University of East Anglia Climatic Research Unit. Air temperature information over land is derived from CRUTEM5 monthly average meteorological station temperature series, an expanded compilation of station series with revised quality control methods. Temperatures over ocean are derived from the HadSST4 sea-surface temperature dataset, including revised assessments of instrumental biases. Temperature data are presented as monthly average near-surface temperature anomalies, relative to the 1961-1990 period, on a regular 5° latitude by 5° longitude grid from 1850 to 2018, with derived global and hemispheric time series. 
Type Of Material Database/Collection of data 
Year Produced 2020 
Provided To Others? Yes  
Impact HadCRUT5 is being used in the IPCC's sixth assessment report as a record of global temperature change. 
URL https://catalogue.ceda.ac.uk/uuid/b9698c5ecf754b1d981728c37d3a9f02
 
Title Ozone column data from Wade et al 
Description Ozone data from HadGEM3-ES simulations used in Wade et al. 2020. Ozone variables are: tracer1 -- the 3D ozone field in mass mixing ration (kg O 3 / kg dry air) salinity -- the 3D ozone sub column (Dobson Units) The experiments are: Hi-HAL=['xnofa','xnofb','xnofc','xnofd','xnofe','xnoff'] LO-HAL=['xnofg','xnofh','xnofi','xnofj','xnofk','xnofl'] HI-SO2=['xnofn','xnofo','xnofp','xnofq','xnofr','xnofs'] LO-SO2=['xnoft','xnofu','xnofv','xnofw','xnofx','xnofy'] CONTROL=['xnfiy'] 
Type Of Material Database/Collection of data 
Year Produced 2020 
Provided To Others? Yes  
URL https://zenodo.org/record/4011660
 
Title Ozone column data from Wade et al 
Description Ozone data from HadGEM3-ES simulations used in Wade et al. 2020. Ozone variables are: tracer1 -- the 3D ozone field in mass mixing ration (kg O 3 / kg dry air) salinity -- the 3D ozone sub column (Dobson Units) The experiments are: Hi-HAL=['xnofa','xnofb','xnofc','xnofd','xnofe','xnoff'] LO-HAL=['xnofg','xnofh','xnofi','xnofj','xnofk','xnofl'] HI-SO2=['xnofn','xnofo','xnofp','xnofq','xnofr','xnofs'] LO-SO2=['xnoft','xnofu','xnofv','xnofw','xnofx','xnofy'] CONTROL=['xnfiy'] 
Type Of Material Database/Collection of data 
Year Produced 2020 
Provided To Others? Yes  
URL https://zenodo.org/record/4011659
 
Title Reconstructions of the radiation fluxes at the top of atmosphere and net surface energy flux: DEEP-C Version 5.0 
Description In order to study the energy flow in the climate system, the radiative fluxes (OLR: Outgoing Longwave Radiation, ASR: Absorbed Solar Radiation, NET: Net Radiative Flux) at the top of atmosphere (TOA) prior to the CERES (Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System) period have been reconstructed using satellite observations of CERES v4.1 and ERBS WFOV v3.0 (Earth Radiation Budget Experiment Satellite Wide Field Of View), atmospheric reanalysis (ERA5: the fifth generation ECMWF ReAnalysis) and AMIP6 (the sixth phase of the coupled model intercomparison project) model simulations. The new approach using the mass-corrected atmospheric energy divergencies (transports) and consistent enthalpy treatment of water substances is employed to estimate the net surface energy fluxes. This is version 5.0 of the DEEP-C dataset. CERES version 4.1 and ERBS WFOV version 3.0 are used. The TOA flux anomaly is constrained by WFOV anomaly in each 10 degree x 10 degree grid box. The atmospheric energy transport is based on the new enthalpy treatment of water substances described in Mayer et al. (2017), 'Toward consistent diagnostics of the coupled atmosphere and ocean energy budgets', Journal of Climate 30(22): 9225-9246. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0137.1. 
Type Of Material Database/Collection of data 
Year Produced 2022 
Provided To Others? Yes  
Impact The dataset is developed from the DEEP-C, SMURPHS and NCEO DEWES projects and is being used in multiple scientific studies 
URL https://researchdata.reading.ac.uk/id/eprint/347
 
Description PIRATE: PROBABILISTIC INTERPRETATION OF ALTIMETER & IN-SITU OBSERVATIONS 
Organisation University of Grenoble
Country France 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution Under the SMURPHS Project we have investigated the role of ocean mesoscale processes/intrinsic ocean variability on global ocean heat uptake and found that it is a significant contributor to the global energy budget - which is a substantial contribution to the goals of the PIRATE Project.
Collaborator Contribution Our partners have made made available a 50 member ensemble of NEMO ocean model simulations, not generally available and representing around 300Tb of data for NOC SMURPHS researchers.
Impact A paper on the role of ocean mesoscale processes/intrinsic ocean variability on global ocean heat uptake is in preparation and a presentation will be made at EGU EGU2019-5665 | Orals | CL2.01/AS4.34 How do ocean heat uptake changes influence decadal trends in Earth's energy budget and global mean surface temperature? Bablu Sinha, Jon Robson, and Florian Sevellec Thu, 11 Apr, 11:00-11:15 Room 0.14
Start Year 2016
 
Description Southampton University Diamond Jubilee International Visiting Fellowship 
Organisation University of New South Wales
Country Australia 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution Contributed to travel and accommodation costs for the International Visiting Fellow (Prof Matt England, University of New South Wales) to visit Southampton. Took part in scientific discussions with Prof England and Prof Bob Marsh (Southampton University) in order to design a joint study of the ocean's role in multidecadal climate variability with a focus on links between the Southern Ocean and the North Atlantic.
Collaborator Contribution Prof England (University of New South Wales) participated in the 2017 SMURPHS annual meeting. He contributed an invited talk, provided an evaluation of the science excellence of the project and made suggestions for future scientific directions. Prof England and Prof Bob Marsh (Southampton University) took part in scientific discussions with Dr Bablu Sinha (NOC) in order to design a joint study of the ocean's role in multidecadal climate variability with a focus on links between the Southern Ocean and the North Atlantic.
Impact No outcome yet - scientific collaboration is underway with a joint paper expected in the next year or so
Start Year 2016
 
Description Southampton University Diamond Jubilee International Visiting Fellowship 
Organisation University of Southampton
Department Ocean and Earth Science
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution Contributed to travel and accommodation costs for the International Visiting Fellow (Prof Matt England, University of New South Wales) to visit Southampton. Took part in scientific discussions with Prof England and Prof Bob Marsh (Southampton University) in order to design a joint study of the ocean's role in multidecadal climate variability with a focus on links between the Southern Ocean and the North Atlantic.
Collaborator Contribution Prof England (University of New South Wales) participated in the 2017 SMURPHS annual meeting. He contributed an invited talk, provided an evaluation of the science excellence of the project and made suggestions for future scientific directions. Prof England and Prof Bob Marsh (Southampton University) took part in scientific discussions with Dr Bablu Sinha (NOC) in order to design a joint study of the ocean's role in multidecadal climate variability with a focus on links between the Southern Ocean and the North Atlantic.
Impact No outcome yet - scientific collaboration is underway with a joint paper expected in the next year or so
Start Year 2016
 
Description Writing a report on use of Big data, Royal Society London 
Organisation The Royal Society
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Charity/Non Profit 
PI Contribution Writing a report on use of Big data
Collaborator Contribution Writing a report on use of Big data
Impact Ongoing
Start Year 2020
 
Title FAIR model on GITHUB. 
Description FaIR simple climate model The FaIR model converts emissions of greenhouse gases and short lived climate forcers to a concentration and radiative forcing time series, and from there to a global temperature anomaly. Natural forcing from solar variability and volcanoes can be supplied externally. It is written in Python, is compatible with Python 2 and Python 3, and is available on PyPI and at GitHub. Description Simple models are needed because full complexity Earth system models that are used in climate change projections such as those used by the IPCC are expensive to run. FaIR is designed to emulate the behaviour of more complex models. The input parameters to FaIR can then be varied to assess the responses in the full range of uncertainty to the carbon cycle, radiative forcing and temperature response. The carbon cycle component of FaIR is based on a modified four time-constant impulse response function that simulates the behaviour of complex earth system models remarkably well. It was developed by SMURPHS Chris Smith, Richard Millar, Zeb Nicholls and Myles Allen at Oxford University. This is version 1.0 of FaIR, described in Millar et al., 2017. For a full assessment of future emissions scenarios, non-CO2 gases, and short lived forcers such as aerosols and tropospheric ozone precursors should be included. The FaIR model was extended to include these emissions. The latest version is 1.3. http://homepages.see.leeds.ac.uk/~mencsm/fair.htm FaIR is in ongoing development in order to make the model more flexible, easy to use, and to keep up to date with the latest science. 
Type Of Technology Software 
Year Produced 2018 
Open Source License? Yes  
Impact The carbon cycle component of FaIR is based on a modified four time-constant impulse response function that simulates the behaviour of complex earth system models remarkably well- vast improvement on previous technologies. 
URL https://github.com/OMS-NetZero/FAIR
 
Title Fast, Parallel intermediate complexity climate model (FORTE 2.0) 
Description This is a climate model with relatively low resolution (2.8 degrees in the atmosphere and 2 degrees in the ocean), but optimised for MP and open MP parallel processing so that it is fast enough to multicentennial and millennial climate simulations. It is easily configurable so that different continental and orographic/ocean bathymetry configurations can be explored. The model can be run with our without a stratosphere. There are basic thermodynamic sea ice and land soi/vegetation models 
Type Of Technology Software 
Year Produced 2021 
Open Source License? Yes  
Impact As this has only just been released, we are expecting impacts to build up over time. A paper has been published describing the model: FORTE 2.0: a fast, parallel and flexible coupled climate model. Blaker, A., Joshi, M., Sinha, B., Stevens, D., Smith, R. & Hirschi, J., 19 Jan 2021, In : Geoscientific Model Development. 14, 1, p. 275-293 19 p. 
URL http://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3632569
 
Description 2017/03 MEDIA: Response to comment by new head of the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) playing down the role of carbon dioxide in driving climate change. 
Form Of Engagement Activity A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Media (as a channel to the public)
Results and Impact Response to comment by new head of the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) playing down the role of carbon dioxide in driving climate change. This was posted as a press release and picked up by news outlets (e.g. Yahoo, Irish News):
http://www.reading.ac.uk/news-and-events/releases/PR713843.aspx
http://www.irishnews.com/magazine/2017/03/10/news/here-s-what-happened-when-trum
p-s-environmental-chief-said-co2-is-not-a-main-cause-of-global-warming-961123/
https://uk.news.yahoo.com/heres-happened-trumps-environmental-chief-170955431.ht
ml
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2017
URL http://www.reading.ac.uk/news-and-events/releases/PR713843.aspx
 
Description ?????? ???? COVID-19 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Online article
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2020
URL https://www.vesti.bg/temi-v-razvitie/tema-koronavirus/svetyt-sled-covid-19-6108802
 
Description Academic seminar in Reading February 2019 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Academic seminar about SMURPHS research
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
 
Description Academic talk about SMURPHS research Edinburgh 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Talk to academics regarding SMURPHS research and SR1.5
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
 
Description Amanda Maycock on BBC Sheffield The Weather Show with Paul Hudson 
Form Of Engagement Activity A broadcast e.g. TV/radio/film/podcast (other than news/press)
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Appearance on the weather show explaining the links to climate change
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
 
Description Article in Carbon Brief: A new approach for understanding the remaining carbon budget 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact The theory dictates that the total amount of CO2 emitted until emissions are taken down to zero determines the maximum warming that the world will subsequently experience. This was the promise from a series of seminal studies published nearly a decade ago.

Our latest understanding of climate science teaches us that this promise is still largely kept, but it turns out things are not quite so straightforward when estimating how much carbon budget remains if we want to cap warming to a precise level. The estimated size of the remaining carbon budget can depend on a whole range of factors, which makes it much trickier to compare different estimates directly
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
URL https://www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-a-new-approach-for-understanding-the-remaining-carbon-budget
 
Description Article in Independent: UK needs to ramp up sustainable farming to maintain food security, government advisers say, Piers Forster 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact The UK needs to rapidly ramp up sustainable farming practices in order to maintain long-term food security and reduce emissions, government advisors have urged in the wake of the latest United Nations (UN) SPECIAL REPORT Climate Change and Land.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has revealed humans have already damaged around a quarter of ice-free land on Earth. However, farming more sustainably and conserving peatlands, grasslands and replanting forests at a local level could repair land and help curb global warming, scientists said. This article explains this.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
URL https://www.independent.co.uk/environment/brexit-uk-sustainable-farming-food-security-ipcc-un-report...
 
Description Article in The Conversation: Climate Change means more extreme weather - here's what the UK can expect if emmissions keep increasing by SMURPHS researchers Kate Sambrook and Tom Richardson 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact On a global scale the science is settled: human emissions of greenhouse gases have already led to a rise in global temperature of more than 1°C, and the consequences are visible around the world.
Longer, hotter and more frequent heat waves will be experienced. Rainfall will be variable and more extreme.
While there are many uncertainties in attribution studies, researchers have shown that human-caused climate change is nudging the temperatures up and increasing the odds of new extremes in heat and rainfall.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
URL https://theconversation.com/climate-change-means-more-extreme-weather-heres-what-the-uk-can-expect-i...
 
Description BBC Look North: Kate Sambrook on the hottest day of the year 
Form Of Engagement Activity A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Regional
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact INterview on Look North - Talking about the worryingly high temperatures and their impact on human life
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
 
Description BBC Radio York, Amanda Maycock on the Australian bush fires. 
Form Of Engagement Activity A broadcast e.g. TV/radio/film/podcast (other than news/press)
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Regional
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Radio interview to highlight link, fires and climate change
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2020
URL https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p07xsn8q
 
Description BLOG 20/11 
Form Of Engagement Activity Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Research published by project partners (Allison et al. 2020) was disseminated to a wider audience in a Met Office blob which led to interest on social media and requests for more information.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2020
URL https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/news/2020/how-to-measure-the-heating-of-the-planet
 
Description BLOG 2017/06 
Form Of Engagement Activity Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Produced press release and blog relating to Nature paper showing less complex cloud-aerosol climate effects than previously thought.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2017
URL https://www.climate-lab-book.ac.uk/2017/volcano-reveals/
 
Description BLOG 2018/09 Blog to publicise research on Southern Ocean biases in climate simulations 
Form Of Engagement Activity Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Blog outlining new research in which we traced large and long-standing biases in computer simulations of climate, affecting the tempestuous Southern Ocean, to errors in cloud that emerge rapidly within the atmospheric models
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
URL https://blogs.reading.ac.uk/weather-and-climate-at-reading/2018/cloud-climate-and-the-roaring-40s/
 
Description BP Sunbury Talk 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Industry/Business
Results and Impact Industry - talk on SMURPHS research to international oil and gas producers to climate impacts
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
URL https://www.bp.com/en_gb/united-kingdom/home/where-we-operate/sunbury.html
 
Description Be Curious Festival for the public organised by the University of Leeds 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Regional
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact "Discover Yorkshire's climate: past, present and future", public engagement event as part of the University's Be Curious Festival. Visitors enjoyed looking at animations of climate model data for the past 120,000 years on the LIDA Omniglobe, specially produced for the event, and facilitated by explanations from climate researchers. A specially commissioned 3-D printed map of the north of England to use as a tool to explain how the landscape of Yorkshire has changed over the last glacial-interglacial cycle. Children in particular enjoyed building the "Yorkshire ice sheet jigsaw", built for the event from modelling clay, and seeing whether their homes would have been covered by ice at the Last Glacial Maximum around
23,000 years ago. Amanda Maycock and Piers Forster talked visitors through an animation of climate of increasing greenhouse gas emissions over the 21st century on northern European climate. This was accompanied by sea level overlays on the 3-D map to show areas of the Vale of York that are at risk of increased flooding as a result of possible future sea level rise.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2017
 
Description BeCurious Festival 2017 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an open day or visit at my research institution
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Regional
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact This was a session focused on sharing research at the university with a wider audience. Primarily but not exclusively it was aimed at families. We had interactive demonstrations of how climate has changed in the past and may change in the future. My individual contribution was a climate change slide show showing how temperatures had changed in Northern Europe over the last 120,000 years (i.e. through the last ice age). This included artwork depictions of some of the fauna that would have been around at the time in the Yorkshire area from local artist James McKay. The stall was very busy throughout the day and we had lots of interested children and parents ask us questions.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2017
URL http://www.leeds.ac.uk/info/4000/around_campus/460/be_curious_festival-about_leeds_and_yorkshire
 
Description Black Carbon Workshop - Oslo 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact Workshop to discuss black carbon policy
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2017
 
Description Breitbart: Managing expectations: climate action not a quick fix 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Research has shown that with serious effort, society can have a "discernible cooling effect on Earth's temperature over the next 15-20 years," Forster quoted.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2020
URL https://www.breitbart.com/news/managing-expectations-climate-action-not-a-quick-fix/
 
Description Bridge Bristol Seminar 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Other audiences
Results and Impact Interdepartmental seminar - on COVID-19 and emissions pathways.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2020
 
Description Budgeting for our future climate: Piers Forster and Chris Smith 
Form Of Engagement Activity Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Article which outlines a new framework provides a robust scientific tool for researchers, policymakers and industry to calculate remaining global carbon budgets.
This work will help define carbon emission reduction targets more clearly as part of urgent attempts to tackle climate change.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
URL https://www.leeds.ac.uk/news/article/4447/budgeting_for_our_future_climate
 
Description CLIMATE FORUM: Global climate change and the implications for Harrogate's green... 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Other audiences
Results and Impact Gave a public talk to colleagues in US on COVID-19 and emissions pathways
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2020
 
Description COP25 - Piers Forster attended 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact UN Climate Change Conference - December 2019, panellist and lead for 2 events.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
URL https://unfccc.int/cop25
 
Description COVID-19 internal cross-government seminar series 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact Briefing civil servants, on the effects of COVID-19 on emissions.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2020
 
Description Can We Reach 100 Percent Renewable Energy In Time To Avert Climate Catastrophe? Chris Smith 
Form Of Engagement Activity Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Article: Chris Smith quotes, "I think this transition [to renewables] will happen," said Chris Smith, a research fellow in physical climate change at the University of Leeds, England. "The question is, will it happen fast enough? Personally, I think not. I don't think we're headed for 4 degrees [Celsius] of warming, but I'd be very surprised if we managed to limit it to one and a half."
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
URL https://popularresistance.org/can-we-reach-100-percent-renewable-energy-in-time-to-avert-climate-cat...
 
Description Carbon Brief Guest post: Why low-end 'climate sensitivity' can now be ruled out 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact After four years of labour and detailed discussions by an international team of scientists, we are able to quantify better than ever before how the world's surface temperature responds to increasing CO2 levels.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2020
URL https://article.signal-ai.com/a7dfc5cd-6c29-3b5a-adf6-ac925108faac?u=f9157888-8859-4dec-89cc-3ce73fc...
 
Description Carbon Brief report: A third of Himalayan ice cap doomed 
Form Of Engagement Activity Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact A third of Himalayan ice cap doomed, finds report:
Today's climate and energy headlines:
A third of Himalayan ice cap doomed, finds report
Oceans to turn brighter blue due to global warming
British chips shrink by an inch as climate change slashes potato yields
UK carbon emissions down 38% since 1990
The Guardian view on fracking: the end can't come soon enough
Townsville floods: Why is Queensland experiencing an 'unprecedented monsoonal burst?'
Public support for carbon dioxide removal strategies: the role of tampering with nature perceptions
Enhanced land-sea warming contrast elevates aerosol pollution in a warmer world
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
URL https://www.carbonbrief.org/daily-brief/a-third-of-himalayan-ice-cap-doomed-finds-report
 
Description Carbon Brief report: Met Office: World has 10% chance of 'overshooting' 1.5C within five years 
Form Of Engagement Activity Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact There is a one-in-10 chance that global average temperatures could "temporarily exceed" 1.5C above pre-industrial levels in at least one year over the next five years, according to new Met Office analysis.
such a breach would not mean that the world has "missed" the Paris Agreement's aspirational target of limiting human-caused global warming to 1.5C, scientists tell Carbon Brief.

This is because the Paris target is concerned with stabilising global temperature to 1.5C over longer timescales of up to 30 years. Thus, a potential "overshoot" should be seen as a "fluctuation" - and "does not mean" the Paris target "can be discarded", various SMURPHS Scientists' have input in the report

Piers Forster adds,"The 1.5C target is firstly a human-induced warming target - natural warming can warm or cool on top of this on many different timescales, but it is this human warming that matters in the long term and what society can act to reduce."
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
URL https://www.carbonbrief.org/met-office-world-has-10-per-cent-chance-overshooting-1-point-5-c-within-...
 
Description Carbon Budget Workshop Vancouver 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Third sector organisations
Results and Impact SMURPHS research workshop for 15 attendees
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
 
Description Climate Feedback: Article in The Guardian misleads readers about sensitivity of climate models by narrowly focusing on single study 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Piers Forster, Professor, University of Leeds:
In this article there is some science on the latest climate models and their cloud feedbacks that have been reported before. However, quotes by Rockstrom and the writer [Watts] are unsupported opinions that make misleading interpretations of the new science that warming will be worse than we thought. These claims are not supported by other lines of evidence showing our estimates of warming rates have been stable over time.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2020
URL https://article.signal-ai.com/b59507ad-f7d0-3885-bed8-735a01b8fd35?u=f9157888-8859-4dec-89cc-3ce73fc...
 
Description Climate Press - website bridging climate science with public understanding and action 
Form Of Engagement Activity Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Website created by Leeds University PhD students, including Paloma Trascasa-Castro SMURPHS a researcher; to bridge the gap in understanding between climate science and the public in an engaging and accessible way through pod casts and blogs from scientists for the non-scientific community, because every person, independent of their demographics, has the right to be informed and up to date.
Kate Sambrook, Amanda Maycock, both SMURPHS have been interviewed about their work and knowledge.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
URL https://www.theclimatepress.com/
 
Description Climate messages in lights 
Form Of Engagement Activity Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact A social media campaign that put people's thoughts about climate change in lights was also used to engage the public in the run up to, and during Green GB Week.



The #MyClimate Twitter campaign asked people to respond to the question, "What does climate change mean to you?" in words of nine characters or less. Over 150 responses were curated by a team of Priestley Centre volunteers led by postgraduate researchers James Norman and Clare Martynski and displayed in 2m-high illuminated letters in the windows of the Platform building adjacent to Leeds Station.

The campaign produced negative words such as "destruction", "extinction" and "scary" but also more positive messages with words like "solutions", "caring" and "fairness". SMURPHS Dr Chris Smith, who was a contributing author to the IPCC Special Report, also used the digital installation to summarise the report's key messages.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
URL http://climate.leeds.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/SR15_video-1.gif
 
Description Committee on Climate Change: Net Zero Report 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact Launch of the CCC Net Zero report in May 2019. To phase out greenhouse gas emmissions by 2050 to end the UK contribution to global warming.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
URL https://www.theccc.org.uk/publication/net-zero-the-uks-contribution-to-stopping-global-warming/
 
Description Coronavirus: Green recovery 'could prevent 0.3C' of warming by 2050 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Carbon Brief, World Economic Forum:
A new study has shown that a strong global green recovery from the coronavirus pandemic could allow the world to avoid 0.3C of global warming by the middle of the century.
Existing climate policies are likely to push global temperatures beyond 1.5C by 2050..
The world could avoid 0.3C of global warming by the middle of the century if governments invest in a strong "green recovery" from coronavirus, according to a new study. Forster et al https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-020-0883-0
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2020
URL https://article.signal-ai.com/a515ab29-ae04-3f6e-a457-1dd33dc3d93a?v=web&u=f9157888-8859-4dec-89cc-3...
 
Description Earth warming more quickly than thought, new climate models show 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Quoted in Peninsular article, Qatar's daily news outlining CMIP6 and the need for action
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
URL https://thepeninsulaqatar.com/article/17/09/2019/Earth-warming-more-quickly-than-thought,-new-climat...
 
Description Engagement with Global Carbon Project 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Other audiences
Results and Impact Research collaboration on COVID-19 and climate
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2020
 
Description Exeter - Lecture to general public 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Local
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact I gave a public lecture to about 300 in a theatre in town and then a panel discussion
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
 
Description Explainer - Coronavirus: Why scientists have warned COVID lockdowns will not stop climate change 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Sky News: Coronavirus: Why scientists have warned COVID lockdowns will not stop climate change
Atmospheric physicist Professor Piers Forster, from the University of Leeds, said the only way to fight the increase in C02 emissions is for governments to lead the way.

He told Sky News: "Countries are waking up to the issue but they also have the problem that their economies still depend on fossil fuel infrastructure to a very large extent.

"There are opportunities with the investment going into recovery.

"We argue that we can transition our industries into renewable energies and there are more exciting jobs for a more resilient community - it does require a strong leadership though."
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2020
URL https://article.signal-ai.com/ed8bc387-3cc4-33ca-896f-d666f0549820?v=web&u=f9157888-8859-4dec-89cc-3...
 
Description First annual Green Great Britain Week and SR1.5 launches at Imperial College London 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact The event also served as a Europe-wide launch of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C, which the United Nations published last week", amid calls to cut the emissions of climate change-causing carbon dioxide gas by 45% by the year 2030.
During the ceremony, an audience of policymakers, politicians, businesses, NGOs and scientists heard about the findings of the Special Report from some of its lead authors, and participated in discussions of what the world, and the UK in particular, can do to limit global warming to a maximum of 1.5°C, as determined by the UN's 2015 Paris Agreement on climate change.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
URL https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/188650/first-annual-green-great-britain-week/
 
Description Green Great Britain Week : Roundtable stakeholder meeting 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact Roundtable meeting to reflect on the success of GGBW in October 2018 and items to take forward to October 2019
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018,2019
URL https://www.ukri.org/news/green-great-britain-week/
 
Description Green aviation's case as Leeds Bradford Airport consultation ends 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Green aviation's case as Leeds Bradford Airport consultation ends - Piers Forster
FLYING has brought the world together and the modern jet engine is a marvel of technological efficiency.
Yet, despite huge efficiency gains, aviation emissions had been increasing rapidly prior to 2020 due to about a roughly six per cent rise in passenger numbers every year.

Six months into the Covid crisis, things look quite different: airlines are running at less than 40 per cent capacity, there have been swathes of job losses from the industry and big names like Virgin Atlantic have filed for bankruptcy in the US.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2020
URL https://www.yorkshirepost.co.uk/news/opinion/columnists/green-aviations-case-leeds-bradford-airport-...
 
Description Greening the Friendly Skies 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Decarbonizing the aviation industry won't be easy. The coronavirus pandemic complicates the situation but also presents an opportunity. Quoted in article:
"The state of the science is too uncertain to really try and pin down all these short-lived effects of aviation," said Piers Forster, a professor of climate physics at the University of Leeds in the United Kingdom, "and it's also quite difficult to compare the short-lived effects of aviation to the long-lived effects of carbon dioxide."
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2020
URL https://eos.org/features/greening-the-friendly-skies
 
Description Guardian Live Panel Discussion "The climate emergency: Your questions answered" 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Regional
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact A Question Time style debate about the climate emergency. This involved a brief introduction and answering questions from the audience of around 260 from the general public. This sparked discussion and questions afterwards and the possibility of new collaborations.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2020
URL https://membership.theguardian.com/event/the-climate-emergency-your-questions-answered-85482577691
 
Description IUCA Presidents Meeting- creating network of Universities for Climate Action 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Postgraduate students
Results and Impact Setting up international network of universities for climate action, 55 universities have joined
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2020
URL https://www.universitiesforclimate.org/
 
Description Immediate phase out of fossil fuels could keep warming below 1.5C- Blog by Chris Smith 
Form Of Engagement Activity Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Chris posted a blog on The Conversation, Immediate phase out of fossil fuels could keep warming below 1.5C
He explains that, despite some positive climate action, new fossil fuel infrastructure is still being built and deployed. Dozens of new coal power plants are currently planned or under construction, for instance, while petrol car sales will nearly hit 100m in 2019.
But what if all that ceased tomorrow? It turns out that if we built no more fossil fuel infrastructure and instead replaced existing infrastructure at the end of its productive life with a zero carbon alternative we could limit peak temperature rise to 1.5°C - as long as we start now.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
URL https://theconversation.com/immediate-phase-out-of-fossil-fuels-could-keep-warming-below-1-5-c-10967...
 
Description Ingenious Future Visions Workshop 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Climate consortium workshop to address future visions of climate change.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
 
Description Input to Rolls Royce EAC annual report 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Industry/Business
Results and Impact Series of meetings to have input on aviation sector using SMURPHS research to influence industry and inform of climate impacts
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
 
Description Is climate change endangering Britain's national dishes: Kate Sambrook SMURPHS, article 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Local
Primary Audience Undergraduate students
Results and Impact Our rapidly changing climate is having a profound impact on what food makes it to the supermarket shelves and British farmers are suffering in the process. Kate Sambrook explains how extreme weather is impacting our food and what we can do about it.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
URL https://medium.com/university-of-leeds/is-climate-change-endangering-britains-national-dishes-81c12a...
 
Description Japan Times: Earth warming more quickly than thought and will pass 'tipping points' sooner, new climate models show 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Quoted in article discussing new climate model results.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
URL https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2019/09/18/world/science-health-world/earth-warming-quickly-though...
 
Description Kate Sambrook, SMURPHS researcher took part in a Pint of Science event in Leeds, Planet Earth night May 2019 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Regional
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Participation in the PInt of Science event
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
 
Description Keynote: greener by design conference, online 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Industry/Business
Results and Impact RAeS GBD - Contrails keynote talk to aviation industry
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2020
URL https://www.aerosociety.com/get-involved/specialist-groups/air-transport/greener-by-design/
 
Description MEDIA 19/12 - BBC World Service interview on the outcome of COP25 climate meeting on climate policy 
Form Of Engagement Activity A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Media (as a channel to the public)
Results and Impact BBC World Service interview on the outcome of COP25 climate meeting on climate policy which sparked discussion.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
URL https://mms.tveyes.com/Transcript.asp?StationID=7195&DateTime=12%2F15%2F2019+1%3A12%3A47+PM&Term=Red...
 
Description MEDIA 19/12 - comments on WMO state of the climate to Science Media Centre/Associated Press 
Form Of Engagement Activity A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Media (as a channel to the public)
Results and Impact Science Media Centre comments on WMO Provisional Statement on State of Climate in 2019 (e.g. Associated Press)
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
URL https://www.sciencemediacentre.org/expert-reaction-to-the-provisional-statement-on-the-state-of-the-...
 
Description MEDIA 20/01 - France 24 debate about Australian bushfires and climate change 
Form Of Engagement Activity A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Media (as a channel to the public)
Results and Impact France 24 debate about Australian bushfires and climate change that sparked questions and debate from panel members and audience
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2020
URL https://www.france24.com/en/20200114-why-is-australia-bruning-bushfires-spark-calls-for-urgent-overh...
 
Description MEDIA 2017/04 - comments on research highlighting statistical pitfalls of comparing global warming trend 
Form Of Engagement Activity A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Media (as a channel to the public)
Results and Impact Provided quote to Science Media Centre to help informm the public about new research highlighting statistical pitfalls of comparing global warming trend
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2017
URL http://www.sciencemediacentre.org/expert-reaction-to-climate-hiatus-statistics/
 
Description MEDIA 2017/09 - Media interviews relating to Hurricane Harvey and Irma 
Form Of Engagement Activity A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Media (as a channel to the public)
Results and Impact Provided interviews and advice to multiple media outlets (BBC 5 Live, BBC News, Telegraph, Science Media Centre, Austrian Broadcasting Centre, ITN News at 10) and interviews to discuss the link between the strength and damage from recent Hurricanes and climate change. This generated questions and requests for further advice.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2017
URL http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-41347527
 
Description MEDIA 2017/11 - November 7th 2017: Another warm year pump primed extremes: comments in BBC & Times articles 
Form Of Engagement Activity A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Comments on how warming from greenhouse gases caused extremes to be worse than they otherwise would have been. These comments were used in BBC & Times articles.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2017
URL http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-41859288
 
Description MEDIA 2017/12 - December 6th 2017: comments on study indicating low climate senisitivity is less likely 
Form Of Engagement Activity A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Media (as a channel to the public)
Results and Impact Comments on Brown and Caldeira study indicating low climate senisitivity is less likely. This was used by the Science Media Centre and distributed to national media.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2017
URL http://www.sciencemediacentre.org/expert-reaction-to-research-suggesting-greater-future-global-warmi...
 
Description MEDIA 2018/01 - January 10th 2018: Hudson weather interview on how possible future solar minimum will not make much of a dent in human-caused global warming 
Form Of Engagement Activity A broadcast e.g. TV/radio/film/podcast (other than news/press)
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact January 10th 2018: Hudson weather interview on how possible future solar minimum will not make much of a dent in human-caused global warming. This was undertaken to dispel the myth that future changes in the sun will drive climate change and that the "Little Ice Age" was not a real ice age and than many factors including volcanoes explain the cooler global period, not just lower sunspots in the Maunder minimum.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
URL http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p05rtd0d#play
 
Description MEDIA 2018/01 - January 18th 2018: Multiple interviews about climate change and weather extremes 
Form Of Engagement Activity A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Media (as a channel to the public)
Results and Impact January 18th 2018: Multiple media interviews on climate and weather. Comment son new study improving confidence in climate predictions with quotes in the Guardian and on the BBC in relation to record non-El Nino warmth in 2017. Also interviews on TalkRadio and a Sputnik News interview on the world economic forum report highlighting the risk of extreme weather. https://www.theguardian.com/science/2018/jan/18/worst-case-global-warming-scenarios-not-credible-says-study http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-42736397 https://sputniknews.com/analysis/201801191060871115-extreme-weather-global-threat http://www.reading.ac.uk/news-and-events/releases/PR754614.asp
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
URL https://sputniknews.com/analysis/201801191060871115-extreme-weather-global-threat
 
Description Meeting at BEIS on climate science 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact Visit to BEIS to discuss research gaps in climate science - presented SMURPHS results
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2017
 
Description Minister for Universities talk at University of Leeds 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact Newly appointed Minister for Universities, Chris Skidmore to visit The Priestley International centre for Climate on the 7th March 2019 for an overview of the School of Earth and Environment as well as a view of the University as a whole.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
 
Description Muslim Hijaz Community, Blessed Summit 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Engagement talk to Islamic summit on climate change to educate and proliferate knowledge through this community.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
 
Description NOAA -online seminar 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact Seminar on Covid-19 climate research
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2020
URL https://www.noaa.gov/climate
 
Description New Scientist - Covid-19 lockdowns will have little lasting impact on global warming  
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Global lockdowns to halt the spread of the coronavirus will have a negligible impact on rising temperatures due to climate change, researchers have found.
Lockdowns to stop the spread of the coronavirus caused huge falls in transport use, as well as reductions in industry and commercial operations, cutting the greenhouse gases and pollutants caused by vehicles and other activities.
The impact is only short-lived, however, and analysis shows that even if some lockdown measures last until the end of 2021, global temperatures will only be 0.01°C lower than expected by 2030.
Read more: https://www.newscientist.com/article/2251313-covid-19-lockdowns-will-have-little-lasting-impact-on-global-warming/#ixzz6oUp69YXk
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2020
URL https://www.newscientist.com/article/2251313-covid-19-lockdowns-will-have-little-lasting-impact-on-g...
 
Description New Statesman -debate 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact Talked about green recovery to policy makers
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2020
 
Description OUTREACH 2017/11 Was there a pause in global warming? Results from the DEEP-C project, Discussion group, St. Anne's College, University of Oxford, 1st November 2017 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Postgraduate students
Results and Impact Was there a pause in global warming? Results from the DEEP-C (and SMURPHS/NCEO work) projects were debated at a discussion group, St. Anne's College, University of Oxford, 1st November 2017
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2017
URL http://www.met.rdg.ac.uk/~sgs02rpa/TALKS/AllanRP_DEEP_C-Oxford.pdf
 
Description OUTREACH 2018/01 - The Science of Climate Change, Year 9 Climate Event, Wednesday 17th January, University of Reading 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an open day or visit at my research institution
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Regional
Primary Audience Schools
Results and Impact An interactive lecture on The Science of Climate Change was presented at a Year 9 Climate Event, Wednesday 17th January, University of Reading. Infrared thermometers were used by students to demonstrate the greenhouse effect and students also participated in demonstrations of feedback loops. I discussed weather extremes including intense rainfall. I received excellent feedback from the organizers and students, many of who enjoyed my section the most out of their days climate activities.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
URL http://www.met.rdg.ac.uk/~sgs02rpa/TALKS/AllanRP1701Climate-Outreach.pdf
 
Description One Day in Leeds 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an open day or visit at my research institution
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Supporters
Results and Impact This event was put on by the university in order to inform influential alumni about the research going on at Leeds.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2017
 
Description Oxfordshire Pension Fund Climate Change Workshop, November 8th 2019. Climate change and what to expect. 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Discussion and workshop aiming to guide Oxfordshire county council on its policy regarding investment/divestment from fossil fuel in its pensions. Impact on pension bodies and stakeholders on the damage of climate change that helped to change opinions and practice.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
 
Description Panel debate: Putting people and communities into greenhouse gas removal: Commercial and Socio-legal Evidence Project 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Other audiences
Results and Impact Online panel debate on GGR
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2020
 
Description Piers Forster quoted in Science Mag, Even 50-year-old climate models correctly predicted global warming 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Climate change doubters have a favorite target: climate models. They claim that computer simulations conducted decades ago didn't accurately predict current warming, so the public should be wary of the predictive power of newer models. Now, the most sweeping evaluation of these older models-some half a century old-shows most of them were indeed accurate
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
URL https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2019/12/even-50-year-old-climate-models-correctly-predicted-global-w...
 
Description Piers Forster visit to Catapult Energy off shore 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Regional
Primary Audience Industry/Business
Results and Impact Visit to Catapult Energy off shore renewable wind farm.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2020
URL https://ore.catapult.org.uk/
 
Description Piers Forster, quoted in Financial Times, Climate change is reaching a tipping point 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Quoted in article
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
URL https://www.ft.com/content/56238e12-14ef-11ea-b869-0971bffac109?FTCamp=engage%2FCAPI%2Fdocx%2FChanne...
 
Description Pint of Science Festival 2017 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Regional
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact A series of public engagement events based on climate, past present and future, held in pubs.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2017
 
Description Public debate with Piers Corbyn London 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Supporters
Results and Impact Debate with Piers Corbyn organised by debating society - Conway Hall
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2016
URL https://conwayhall.org.uk/issue/vol-122-no-1/
 
Description Public lecture: From Climate Science to Climate Action?  Held jointly by Mill Hill Chapel, The Leeds Library and the Leeds Philosophical and Literary Society.  This seminar will explore how science influences international negotiations, national legislation and climate action. 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Piers Forster invited to speak at this lecture to give an overview as a climate scientist, part of the IPCC and CCC
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
 
Description Public talk, Kent 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Invited to talk to local organisation
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
 
Description Quote in article 8 surprising ways climate change could affect mountains 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Climate change is already visibly changing the Alps - but what impact will it have on Britain's hills and mountains?

The Matterhorn is crumbling. That's the assessment of scientists from ETH university in Zurich, who have installed movement sensors at 13,000ft to assess the impact of melting permafrost on the mountain's stability.
Don't mothball the crampons just yet. Extreme weather events are likely to hit the hills more regularly as temperatures rise. A further 1.5C of warming "would raise the snowline a few hundreds metres and make snow far less common," says Professor Forster. "But when snow does fall you may get a lot more - so I would not expect a completely snow-free season, but it would be far more unreliable."

The bad news is that any sport requiring long periods of sub-zero temperatures - think ice climbing and potentially skiing - will be off the menu.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
URL https://www.tgomagazine.co.uk/news/8-surprising-ways-climate-change-could-affect-our-mountains/
 
Description Quote in wired.co.uk The NHS has a plan to tackle its huge environmental impact 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact The health service contributes five per cent of the UK's entire emissions, but it's already cut them by almost a fifth in the last decade.
One thing the NHS has in its favour is that it has a pretty good idea about its current environmental footprint. "One good thing about Brexit, is the NHS has had to do a very detailed audit of where their its chains come from because it was concerned about the impact of Brexit on its supply chains," says Piers Forster, director of the Priestley International Centre for Climate at the University of Leeds and a member expert panel overseeing the NHS' net zero efforts.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2020
URL https://www.wired.co.uk/article/nhs-net-zero-carbon
 
Description Quoted in BBC article: Climate change: Warming signal links global floods and fires: Piers Forster, Gabi Hegerl 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact With homes under water in South Yorkshire, near record flooding in Venice, and burgeoning wildfires in Australia, many people are asking if and how climate change is connected to these extreme weather events. Climate scientists quoted to provide explanation.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
URL https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-50407508
 
Description Quoted in Business Insider Climate emergency: world 'may have crossed tipping points' 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact The article reports that preliminary results from the latest climate models suggest global heating will be greater than expected, increasing the risk of tipping points. Prof Piers Forster, at the University of Leeds, disagreed on that point. However, he added: "I completely endorse their call for action. Although possibly low probability, the risks they identify are real."
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
URL https://www.businesstelegraph.co.uk/climate-emergency-world-may-have-crossed-tipping-points/
 
Description Quoted in Independent article: Cricketers 'to be allowed to wear shorts' as higher temperatures become normal due to climate change 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Discusses the effect heightened temperatures are having in sports.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
URL https://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change/cricket-shorts-climate-change-crisis-rules-...
 
Description Quoted in The Economist: Climate change stops play Typhoon Hagibis offers a glimpse of sport's stormy future 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Instances of rain-not to mention typhoons, flooding or heat-stopping play are likely to become more common as climate change makes some weather events more severe. In the case of storms such as Hagibis, a warmer atmosphere holds more water vapour, which makes them more intense. Last year saw more natural disasters than any year going back to 1980, according to Munich Re, a reinsurer (see chart). In the future, coastal regions will become more prone to storms and flooding, while inland regions will face heatwaves and flash flooding, according to Piers Forster, a professor of climate physics at the University of Leeds and one of the authors of a report on climate change and sport. A study in 2016 found that over the past 40 years, Asian typhoons such as the one threatening Japan have become 50% stronger. The tropical storms hitting America are becoming more potent, too. When it comes to sporting events, Mr Forster points out, "nowhere is safe."
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
URL https://www.economist.com/game-theory/2019/10/14/typhoon-hagibis-offers-a-glimpse-of-sports-stormy-f...
 
Description Quoted in The Good Men Project article:Uk Vegetable and Fruit Supplies at Risk, Piers Forster 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Media interest drawn from the Climate Coalition report: Recipe for Disaster
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
URL https://goodmenproject.com/featured-content/uk-vegetable-and-fruit-supplies-at-risk/
 
Description Quoted in Yorkshire Post article: Flooding victims in South Yorkshire betrayed by self-important politicians. Piers Forster 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Article on local flooding, climate scientists quoted to provide explanation:
But the inescapable fact is that controlling water in one place simply moves it to another. Also, as Professor Piers Forster, professor of climate physics at the University of Leeds, and member of the UK Committee on Climate Change, says, there is much preventative work to be done in the uplands many miles away from where floods occur. He stresses the need for communities to communicate. This can only be done when underpinned by effective relationships between the Environment Agency, water companies, local authorities and landowners.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
URL https://www.yorkshirepost.co.uk/news/opinion/columnists/flooding-victims-south-yorkshire-betrayed-se...
 
Description Quoted in article in Business Times: Earth warming more quickly than thought, new climate models show 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Quoted in Businesstimes.com CMIP6 explanation
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
URL https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/government-economy/earth-warming-more-quickly-than-thought-new-clim...
 
Description Recipe for Disaster: Climate Coalition Report: Piers Forster, Kate Sambrook 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Report explaining the effect of warming and changing climate in the UK on food.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
URL https://static1.squarespace.com/static/58b40fe1be65940cc4889d33/t/5c5bffc4652dea319f39bf6e/154953317...
 
Description SACCWG Advisory Board 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Industry/Business
Results and Impact On advisory board for SA Cleaner Workstream. Engagement with aviation industry to influence policy development with regards to air quality, CO2 roadmap plans, scientific understanding, EU/ International agreements.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018,2019,2020
 
Description SMURPHS working group Oslo 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact SMURPHS collaboration and plan for further work
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
 
Description The Big Leeds Climate Conversation: Kate Sambrook 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Regional
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Participation in event
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
URL https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nv1wexxj2lw&app=desktop
 
Description The Conversation: Coronavirus lockdown will have 'negligible' impact on the climate - new study 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Article by Forster
Here in the UK, with traffic noise back to drowning out birdsong, and foreign holidays back on the cards, it is easy to forget the weeks of cleaner air. If we do not seize the opportunity to pause, reflect and plan transformative change, the COVID-19 years could end up being just a small and temporary blip in our overall climate trajectory...

Overall, even a lengthy lockdown will have a surprisingly small impact on the global climate, but COVID-19 has brought an opportunity to pause and reflect, as without concerted global action we will still be on a path towards dangerous climate change. Our work also highlights the public benefit of Google and Apple making their data more available. The data tap is on; they should not turn it off.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2020
URL https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-lockdown-will-have-negligible-impact-on-the-climate-new-stud...
 
Description The Conversation: The Climate Clock, Counting down to 1.5C 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5? has opened a window to limit global warming to 1.5? above pre-industrial levels, but carbon dioxide emissions are projected to increase in 2018 for the second year in a row. If this trend continues, emissions will drive global temperatures to 1.5? in less than 16 years.

The Climate Clock we created shows how quickly we are approaching 1.5? of global warming, given current emissions trends. Here, we present our third annual update of the clock in light of the most recent scientific data, released on Dec. 5, 2018.http://www.climateclock.net/
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
URL https://theconversation.com/the-climate-clock-counting-down-to-1-5-107498
 
Description The Guardian, Piers Forster quoted in article, Climate emergency: world 'may have crossed tipping points' 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Warning of 'existential threat to civilisation' as impacts lead to cascade of unstoppable events, quoting climate science, PIers forster
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
URL https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/nov/27/climate-emergency-world-may-have-crossed-tipping...
 
Description The Guardian: Likelihood of 40C temperatures in UK is 'rapidly accelerating' 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact The likelihood of the UK experiencing deadly 40C temperatures for the first time is "rapidly accelerating" due to the climate crisis, scientists have found.

The research shows that such searing heat could become a regular occurrence by the end of the century unless carbon emissions are cut to zero. Global heating has already made UK heatwaves 30 times more likely and extreme temperatures led to 3,400 early deaths from 2016-19.

The highest temperature recorded in the UK is 38.7C, set in Cambridge in July 2019, while the summer of 2018 was the joint hottest on record. The new analysis found an increasing risk of even higher temperatures.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2020
URL https://article.signal-ai.com/1f4bcb56-cba2-3142-9c14-e910ab5088f2?u=f9157888-8859-4dec-89cc-3ce73fc...
 
Description The Hudson Weather Show with Kate Sambrook 
Form Of Engagement Activity A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Regional
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Interview on local BBC radio weather, relating to climate change
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
 
Description The Royal Meteorological Society- Talk Durham March 2019 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact The Royal Meteorological Society is a long-established organisation based in the UK that promotes the understanding of weather and climate. they support anyone with an interest in the subject, whether that's through a personal interest or their professional work, thus hosting events such as the one Piers has delivered.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
URL https://www.rmets.org/event/climate-science-climate-policy
 
Description Thenews.com article, Earth warming quicker than thought 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Quoted in article discussing new climate model results
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
URL https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/528305-earth-warming-quicker-than-thought
 
Description Treehugger.com - Chris Smith quoted in, What are "locked-in emissions" and why do they matter? 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact People who buy gasoline powered cars are locking in their emissions for about 15 years, and building a cement plant locks them in for forty years. The cars in particular are important because there are so many of them: "Continued investment in conventional ICE vehicles risks further entrenching these technologies at the expense of fostering alternatives, such as electric vehicles, and the systems that support them, such as recharging infrastructure."

Another study led by Chris Smith of the University of Leeds determined that if we started right now at replacing existing infrastructure at the end of its useful life with zero-carbon alternatives, "we could limit peak temperature rise to 1.5°C - as long as we start now." They are talking about everything:
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
URL https://www.treehugger.com/green-architecture/what-are-locked-emissions-and-why-do-they-matter.html
 
Description Vist to Gordon conference - invited presentation 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact I gave a plenary invited talk at the Gordon conference on climate engineering
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2017
 
Description Weather and Sport How does the weather affect football, golf and cricket? Kate Sambrook- favourite sports could be severely affected by climate change in coming years. 
Form Of Engagement Activity A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact How does the weather affect football, golf and cricket? BBC Look North weatherman Paul Hudson talks to SMURPHS researcher Kate Sambrook, who says Paul's favourite sports could be severely affected by climate change in coming years. PLUS award-winning American weather journalist Andrew Revkin, who has written for the New York Times and National Geographic about 500 years of weather stories and heroes.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/42936199
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2017,2018
URL https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p06bdrxt
 
Description Web Press Release: Avoiding fossil fuel 'lock-in' could help limit global temperature rise 
Form Of Engagement Activity Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Media (as a channel to the public)
Results and Impact Research suggests there would be a 64% chance of limiting the increase in global average temperatures to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, if fossil fuel infrastructure was phased out immediately.

An international team of scientists led by the University of Leeds has used a new climate model to determine what would happen to global temperatures if the phase-out process for carbon-intensive infrastructure had begun at the end of 2018.

In the study's scenario, fossil fuel power plants, cars, aircraft, ships, and industrial infrastructure are replaced with zero carbon alternatives at the end of their design lifetime - the point where large scale refurbishments or maintenance would be required.

The team found that if the process of replacing these systems with zero carbon alternatives - or not replacing them at all - began from the end of 2018, and their subsequent CO2 emissions decreased at close to a linear rate as a result, the chance of keeping global temperature rise to below 1.5°C is 64%.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
URL https://www.leeds.ac.uk/news/article/4353/avoiding_fossil_fuel_lock-in_could_help_limit_global_tempe...
 
Description White Rose Brussels, Eu Parliment seminar 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact Formal Presentation to EU MEPs on climate change
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2016
URL http://climate.leeds.ac.uk/news/air-quality-success-but-how-will-brexit-impact/
 
Description Why Harrogate must plant a new forest the size of Stray each year 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Local
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Piers Forster quoted in Ripon Gazette
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
 
Description Wired: Coronavirus shows the enormous scale of the climate crisis 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact "To get the huge reductions in emissions that we want we need far more systematic things going on," says Forster. "When you offer jobs to people and you invest in industries it needs to be those industries of tomorrow." In the wake of the 2008 financial crisis, the rush to get the economy functioning again led to a spike in emissions from fossil fuel firms and the cement industry.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2020
URL https://www.wired.co.uk/article/coronavirus-climate-change
 
Description Zero Carbon Harrogate- online event 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Local
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Online talk on reducing carbon, effects of COVID-19 on emissions.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2020
URL https://www.zerocarbonharrogate.org.uk/
 
Description joint report collaborating with NGOs 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Media (as a channel to the public)
Results and Impact Show the Love: Recipe for Disaster: How climate change is impacting British fruit and vegetables
https://www.theclimatecoalition.org/recipefordisaster
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
URL https://www.theclimatecoalition.org/recipefordisaster