Securing Multidisciplinary UndeRstanding and Prediction of Hiatus and Surge events (SMURPHS)

Lead Research Organisation: University of Leeds
Department Name: School of Earth and Environment

Abstract

Climate is currently changing mostly because of additional greenhouse gases, emitted through human activity, which are heating up the planet. Since future warming of climate is likely to cause damage to societies, governments are coordinating efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to avoid these damaging consequences. However, despite the continuing rises in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, the rate of warming of the Earth's surface has declined somewhat since the 1990s. While it is tempting to find a simple reason for this slowing (or "hiatus") in global surface warming, the climate system is extremely complex and there are many factors which can explain the lumps and bumps in the surface temperature record which also include increases (or "surges") in the rate of warming. The goal of our proposed programme of research is to understand much more fully how all the contributing factors can explain past hiatus and surge (H/S) events and this will ultimately help improve predictions of future climate change over the coming decades and far into the future.

The potential causes of H/S events includes: natural (so-called unforced) climate variability, due to complex interplay between the atmosphere, oceans and land; natural climate change due to volcanic eruptions or changes in the brightness of the sun; changes in how heat is moved into the deep oceans due to natural variations or human-caused factors; changes in emissions of gases such as methane due to human activity; limitations in the distribution of temperature observations, such that the hiatus is partly an artefact of imperfect observations. Rather than one single cause it is likely that H/S events are caused by a combination of factors. This is why a large team with a broad range of expertise is required to evaluate the different processes together. Our project, Securing Multidisciplinary UndeRstanding and Prediction of Hiatus and Surge events (SMURPHS) has brought together a comprehensive community of researchers from 9 UK institutes supported by 5 project partners including the Met Office who are experts in the atmosphere, the oceans and the land surface.

SMURPHS has 3 broad objectives, achieved through 6 research themes, which exploit theory, observations and detailed computer modelling. Objective 1 is to build a basic framework for interpreting H/S events in terms of energy moving between the atmosphere and ocean and to determine characteristics of and similarities between H/S events. Objective 2 is to understand mechanisms that could trigger H/S events and extend their length, considering both human and natural factors. Objective 3 is to assess whether H/S events can be predicted and what information is needed for near-term prediction of climate over coming decades which is important for how societies adapt to change. To meet these objectives scientists from a range of different disciplines will work on each of these possibilities and communicate their findings across the team. SMURPHS will produce a wide-ranging synthesis of its results.

SMURPHS will have many beneficiaries. Beyond the global scientific community, improved understanding of H/S events is important at national and international levels for designing policies to control future greenhouse gas emissions and for effective adaptation to climate change. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments have deeply influenced climate policy development at the international and national levels. Scientists involved in SMURPHS have contributed significantly to previous IPCC reports, and SMURPHS science and scientists would contribute significantly to future such assessments.

Planned Impact

1. The World Climate Research Program (WCRP) 6th Climate Model Intercomparison (CMIP6) Committee, participating climate research centres, and the international research community will benefit from new radiative forcing scenarios with quantified uncertainties promoted through WCRP/CMIP6 planning meetings. SMURPHS will contribute directly to the CMIP6 plans and host relevant meetings during the project. The SMURPHS webpage will provide the latest information to the international modelling centres and a contact list will be drawn up for provision of regular notifications.
2. International policy makers representing governments in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) negotiations; National policy makers in the Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC) and the Committee for Climate Change (CCC) and European Union counterparts; and International and national non-governmental organisations (NGOs) will benefit from improved understanding of decadal variability in global mean surface temperature rise and of the relationship between short term and longer term trends.
Two critical issues for these groups are: (i) implications of the recent hiatus for long term climate change (mitigation policy), and (ii) constraints on the rate of climate change over the next few decades (adaptation policy). We will organize two international workshops to synthesize research findings and bring together additional international perspectives to provide an overall assessment. Key outputs will be two assessment papers for input to the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC (AR6). Lack of complete understanding of the hiatus was a major gap in IPCC AR5, which SMURPHS will address directly. As part of these workshops, a discussion session will be held with invited policymakers from DECC and other government departments to explore the implications of our findings. We also plan to hold a side event on historic temperature trends at a UNFCCC Conference of the Parties (expected in December 2017).
3. The Met Office (MO) has strategic plans to improve near term prediction of climate change and with DECC/DEFRA and CCC will produce revised mitigation pathways to avoid dangerous climate change. The MO will benefit from improved quantification of past radiative forcing and understanding of variability in global-mean surface temperature rise, resulting in improved models and predictions. A close working relationship with the MO is established and a coordinated programme of work has been designed. MO colleagues will attend project meetings and SMURPHS PDRAs will spend time based at the MO. The Met Office Academic Partnership involving the Universities of Exeter, Leeds, Oxford and Reading provides an additional mechanism for collaboration.
4. The general public and the media. SMURPHS will benefit the interested public by enabling clearer and more precise explanations of the hiatus and implications for long-term climate change. Several media articles used poor understanding of the hiatus to challenge the Government's emission reduction targets in 2013. In response the Science Media Centre (SMC) prepared a briefing note on the hiatus with significant contributions from Forster, Sutton, Allan and Hawkins. We will work with the SMC to update this briefing note at the end of the project, and will discuss holding a briefing meeting for interested journalists. Shine is very active in ongoing Royal Society efforts to explain climate change science to a wide audience via a number of activities, and expects to continue to be so during SMURPHS. Outputs from the project will be written up in a form that is accessible for the interested general public on Hawkins' climate-lab-book blog which also provides a mechanism for public engagement and feedback. Key findings will be communicated on Twitter. All PIs and Co-Is have press experience and engagement with the media will continue throughout the project.

Publications

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Von Schneidemesser E (2015) Chemistry and the Linkages between Air Quality and Climate Change. in Chemical reviews

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Solomon S (2016) Emergence of healing in the Antarctic ozone layer. in Science (New York, N.Y.)

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Brasseur G (2016) Impact of Aviation on Climate: FAA's Aviation Climate Change Research Initiative (ACCRI) Phase II in Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society

 
Description Appointed to the Committee on Climate Change (CCC) in December 2018
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Implementation circular/rapid advice/letter to e.g. Ministry of Health
Impact Piers Forster has been appointed to the Committee on Climate Change (CCC) which is independent advice to government on building a low-carbon economy and preparing for climate change. He takes up the post of climate scientist on the Committee for a five-year term.
URL https://www.theccc.org.uk/2018/12/03/professor-piers-forster-joins-committee-on-climate-change/
 
Description BEIS Climate Science for Decision-making
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a advisory committee
 
Description Heathrow 3rd Runway Select Committee, Westminster, London
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a advisory committee
 
Description IPCC 1.5C meetings in Malmo, Sweden
Geographic Reach Multiple continents/international 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a advisory committee
 
Description Launch of the IPCC SR1.5 Report in London October 2018
Geographic Reach Multiple continents/international 
Policy Influence Type Gave evidence to a government review
Impact Following the IPCC Special Report on 1.5°C , The most policy-relevant solution focussed report on climate change yet. In October 2018 there was a launch event in London to target the media, Government and ministers to raise awareness and significance of the report on a global and local scale. The launch event was to an audience of roughly 300
URL https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/
 
Description Leverhulme Trust new UK centre for innovative research - The Leverhulme Centre for Climate Change Mitigation
Amount £400,000 (GBP)
Organisation The Leverhulme Trust 
Sector Academic/University
Country United Kingdom
Start 01/2016 
 
Title CRUTEM4.5 and HadCRUT4.5 
Description CRUTEM is a gridded dataset of global historical near-surface air temperature anomalies over land. Data are available for each month from January 1850 to present, on a 5 degree grid. The dataset is a collaborative product of the Met Office Hadley Centre and the Climatic Research Unit at the University of East Anglia. The annual update to produce version CRUTEM4.5 was released in 2016 was partially supported by NCAS and partially supported by SMURPHS. The additional data sources that NCAS and SMURPHS support allowed us to add in CRUTEM4.5 are described here: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/crutem4/data/CRUTEM.4.5.0.0_release_notes.html CRUTEM forms the land component of the global land and marine temperature record HadCRUT. CRUTEM4.5 contributed the land component to the 2016 update of the combined dataset, HadCRUT4.5. 
Type Of Material Database/Collection of data 
Year Produced 2016 
Provided To Others? Yes  
Impact The CRUTEM4.5 and HadCRUT4.5 global temperature datasets contributed to the WMO's confirmation that 2016 was hottest on record. https://public.wmo.int/en/media/press-release/wmo-confirms-2016-hottest-year-record-about-11%C2%B0c-above-pre-industrial-era 
URL https://crudata.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/temperature/
 
Title DEEP-C top of atmosphere and surface energy fluxes 1985-2016 
Description In order to study which mechanisms explain the reduced global surface warming rate since around 2000, and where the excess energy is due to rising greenhouse gas, the radiation fluxes (OLR, ASR and NET) at the top of atmosphere (TOA) prior to the CERES period are reconstructed using satellite observations, atmospheric reanalysis (ERA-Interim) and AMIP5 model simulations. The new approach using the mass-corrected atmospheric energy divergencies (transports) from ERA-Interim is employed to estimate the net surface energy fluxes. 
Type Of Material Database/Collection of data 
Year Produced 2017 
Provided To Others? Yes  
Impact Use of data in multiple publications. 
URL http://researchdata.reading.ac.uk/111/
 
Title FAIR model on GITHUB. 
Description FaIR simple climate model The FaIR model converts emissions of greenhouse gases and short lived climate forcers to a concentration and radiative forcing time series, and from there to a global temperature anomaly. Natural forcing from solar variability and volcanoes can be supplied externally. It is written in Python, is compatible with Python 2 and Python 3, and is available on PyPI and at GitHub. Description Simple models are needed because full complexity Earth system models that are used in climate change projections such as those used by the IPCC are expensive to run. FaIR is designed to emulate the behaviour of more complex models. The input parameters to FaIR can then be varied to assess the responses in the full range of uncertainty to the carbon cycle, radiative forcing and temperature response. The carbon cycle component of FaIR is based on a modified four time-constant impulse response function that simulates the behaviour of complex earth system models remarkably well. It was developed by SMURPHS Chris Smith, Richard Millar, Zeb Nicholls and Myles Allen at Oxford University. This is version 1.0 of FaIR, described in Millar et al., 2017. For a full assessment of future emissions scenarios, non-CO2 gases, and short lived forcers such as aerosols and tropospheric ozone precursors should be included. The FaIR model was extended to include these emissions. The latest version is 1.3. http://homepages.see.leeds.ac.uk/~mencsm/fair.htm FaIR is in ongoing development in order to make the model more flexible, easy to use, and to keep up to date with the latest science. 
Type Of Technology Software 
Year Produced 2018 
Open Source License? Yes  
Impact The carbon cycle component of FaIR is based on a modified four time-constant impulse response function that simulates the behaviour of complex earth system models remarkably well- vast improvement on previous technologies. 
URL https://github.com/OMS-NetZero/FAIR
 
Description 2017/03 MEDIA: Response to comment by new head of the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) playing down the role of carbon dioxide in driving climate change. 
Form Of Engagement Activity A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Media (as a channel to the public)
Results and Impact Response to comment by new head of the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) playing down the role of carbon dioxide in driving climate change. This was posted as a press release and picked up by news outlets (e.g. Yahoo, Irish News):
http://www.reading.ac.uk/news-and-events/releases/PR713843.aspx
http://www.irishnews.com/magazine/2017/03/10/news/here-s-what-happened-when-trum
p-s-environmental-chief-said-co2-is-not-a-main-cause-of-global-warming-961123/
https://uk.news.yahoo.com/heres-happened-trumps-environmental-chief-170955431.ht
ml
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2017
URL http://www.reading.ac.uk/news-and-events/releases/PR713843.aspx
 
Description Academic seminar in Reading February 2019 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Academic seminar about SMURPHS research
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
 
Description Academic talk about SMURPHS research Edinburgh 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Talk to academics regarding SMURPHS research and SR1.5
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
 
Description Article in The Conversation: Climate Change means more extreme weather - here's what the UK can expect if emmissions keep increasing by SMURPHS researchers Kate Sambrook and Tom Richardson 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact On a global scale the science is settled: human emissions of greenhouse gases have already led to a rise in global temperature of more than 1°C, and the consequences are visible around the world.
Longer, hotter and more frequent heat waves will be experienced. Rainfall will be variable and more extreme.
While there are many uncertainties in attribution studies, researchers have shown that human-caused climate change is nudging the temperatures up and increasing the odds of new extremes in heat and rainfall.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
URL https://theconversation.com/climate-change-means-more-extreme-weather-heres-what-the-uk-can-expect-i...
 
Description BLOG 2017/06 
Form Of Engagement Activity Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Produced press release and blog relating to Nature paper showing less complex cloud-aerosol climate effects than previously thought.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2017
URL https://www.climate-lab-book.ac.uk/2017/volcano-reveals/
 
Description BLOG 2018/09 Blog to publicise research on Southern Ocean biases in climate simulations 
Form Of Engagement Activity Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Blog outlining new research in which we traced large and long-standing biases in computer simulations of climate, affecting the tempestuous Southern Ocean, to errors in cloud that emerge rapidly within the atmospheric models
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
URL https://blogs.reading.ac.uk/weather-and-climate-at-reading/2018/cloud-climate-and-the-roaring-40s/
 
Description BP Sunbury Talk 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Industry/Business
Results and Impact Industry - talk on SMURPHS research to international oil and gas producers to climate impacts
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
URL https://www.bp.com/en_gb/united-kingdom/home/where-we-operate/sunbury.html
 
Description Be Curious Festival for the public organised by the University of Leeds 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Regional
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact "Discover Yorkshire's climate: past, present and future", public engagement event as part of the University's Be Curious Festival. Visitors enjoyed looking at animations of climate model data for the past 120,000 years on the LIDA Omniglobe, specially produced for the event, and facilitated by explanations from climate researchers. A specially commissioned 3-D printed map of the north of England to use as a tool to explain how the landscape of Yorkshire has changed over the last glacial-interglacial cycle. Children in particular enjoyed building the "Yorkshire ice sheet jigsaw", built for the event from modelling clay, and seeing whether their homes would have been covered by ice at the Last Glacial Maximum around
23,000 years ago. Amanda Maycock and Piers Forster talked visitors through an animation of climate of increasing greenhouse gas emissions over the 21st century on northern European climate. This was accompanied by sea level overlays on the 3-D map to show areas of the Vale of York that are at risk of increased flooding as a result of possible future sea level rise.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2017
 
Description BeCurious Festival 2017 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an open day or visit at my research institution
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Regional
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact This was a session focused on sharing research at the university with a wider audience. Primarily but not exclusively it was aimed at families. We had interactive demonstrations of how climate has changed in the past and may change in the future. My individual contribution was a climate change slide show showing how temperatures had changed in Northern Europe over the last 120,000 years (i.e. through the last ice age). This included artwork depictions of some of the fauna that would have been around at the time in the Yorkshire area from local artist James McKay. The stall was very busy throughout the day and we had lots of interested children and parents ask us questions.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2017
URL http://www.leeds.ac.uk/info/4000/around_campus/460/be_curious_festival-about_leeds_and_yorkshire
 
Description Black Carbon Workshop - Oslo 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact Workshop to discuss black carbon policy
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2017
 
Description Carbon Brief report: A third of Himalayan ice cap doomed 
Form Of Engagement Activity Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact A third of Himalayan ice cap doomed, finds report:
Today's climate and energy headlines:
A third of Himalayan ice cap doomed, finds report
Oceans to turn brighter blue due to global warming
British chips shrink by an inch as climate change slashes potato yields
UK carbon emissions down 38% since 1990
The Guardian view on fracking: the end can't come soon enough
Townsville floods: Why is Queensland experiencing an 'unprecedented monsoonal burst?'
Public support for carbon dioxide removal strategies: the role of tampering with nature perceptions
Enhanced land-sea warming contrast elevates aerosol pollution in a warmer world
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
URL https://www.carbonbrief.org/daily-brief/a-third-of-himalayan-ice-cap-doomed-finds-report
 
Description Carbon Brief report: Met Office: World has 10% chance of 'overshooting' 1.5C within five years 
Form Of Engagement Activity Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact There is a one-in-10 chance that global average temperatures could "temporarily exceed" 1.5C above pre-industrial levels in at least one year over the next five years, according to new Met Office analysis.
such a breach would not mean that the world has "missed" the Paris Agreement's aspirational target of limiting human-caused global warming to 1.5C, scientists tell Carbon Brief.

This is because the Paris target is concerned with stabilising global temperature to 1.5C over longer timescales of up to 30 years. Thus, a potential "overshoot" should be seen as a "fluctuation" - and "does not mean" the Paris target "can be discarded", various SMURPHS Scientists' have input in the report

Piers Forster adds,"The 1.5C target is firstly a human-induced warming target - natural warming can warm or cool on top of this on many different timescales, but it is this human warming that matters in the long term and what society can act to reduce."
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
URL https://www.carbonbrief.org/met-office-world-has-10-per-cent-chance-overshooting-1-point-5-c-within-...
 
Description Carbon Budget Workshop Vancouver 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Third sector organisations
Results and Impact SMURPHS research workshop for 15 attendees
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
 
Description Climate messages in lights 
Form Of Engagement Activity Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact A social media campaign that put people's thoughts about climate change in lights was also used to engage the public in the run up to, and during Green GB Week.



The #MyClimate Twitter campaign asked people to respond to the question, "What does climate change mean to you?" in words of nine characters or less. Over 150 responses were curated by a team of Priestley Centre volunteers led by postgraduate researchers James Norman and Clare Martynski and displayed in 2m-high illuminated letters in the windows of the Platform building adjacent to Leeds Station.

The campaign produced negative words such as "destruction", "extinction" and "scary" but also more positive messages with words like "solutions", "caring" and "fairness". SMURPHS Dr Chris Smith, who was a contributing author to the IPCC Special Report, also used the digital installation to summarise the report's key messages.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
URL http://climate.leeds.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/SR15_video-1.gif
 
Description First annual Green Great Britain Week and SR1.5 launches at Imperial College London 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact The event also served as a Europe-wide launch of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C, which the United Nations published last week", amid calls to cut the emissions of climate change-causing carbon dioxide gas by 45% by the year 2030.
During the ceremony, an audience of policymakers, politicians, businesses, NGOs and scientists heard about the findings of the Special Report from some of its lead authors, and participated in discussions of what the world, and the UK in particular, can do to limit global warming to a maximum of 1.5°C, as determined by the UN's 2015 Paris Agreement on climate change.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
URL https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/188650/first-annual-green-great-britain-week/
 
Description Immediate phase out of fossil fuels could keep warming below 1.5C- Blog by Chris Smith 
Form Of Engagement Activity Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Chris posted a blog on The Conversation, Immediate phase out of fossil fuels could keep warming below 1.5C
He explains that, despite some positive climate action, new fossil fuel infrastructure is still being built and deployed. Dozens of new coal power plants are currently planned or under construction, for instance, while petrol car sales will nearly hit 100m in 2019.
But what if all that ceased tomorrow? It turns out that if we built no more fossil fuel infrastructure and instead replaced existing infrastructure at the end of its productive life with a zero carbon alternative we could limit peak temperature rise to 1.5°C - as long as we start now.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
URL https://theconversation.com/immediate-phase-out-of-fossil-fuels-could-keep-warming-below-1-5-c-10967...
 
Description Ingenious Future Visions Workshop 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Climate consortium workshop to address future visions of climate change.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
 
Description MEDIA 2017/04 - comments on research highlighting statistical pitfalls of comparing global warming trend 
Form Of Engagement Activity A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Media (as a channel to the public)
Results and Impact Provided quote to Science Media Centre to help informm the public about new research highlighting statistical pitfalls of comparing global warming trend
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2017
URL http://www.sciencemediacentre.org/expert-reaction-to-climate-hiatus-statistics/
 
Description MEDIA 2017/09 - Media interviews relating to Hurricane Harvey and Irma 
Form Of Engagement Activity A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Media (as a channel to the public)
Results and Impact Provided interviews and advice to multiple media outlets (BBC 5 Live, BBC News, Telegraph, Science Media Centre, Austrian Broadcasting Centre, ITN News at 10) and interviews to discuss the link between the strength and damage from recent Hurricanes and climate change. This generated questions and requests for further advice.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2017
URL http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-41347527
 
Description MEDIA 2017/11 - November 7th 2017: Another warm year pump primed extremes: comments in BBC & Times articles 
Form Of Engagement Activity A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Comments on how warming from greenhouse gases caused extremes to be worse than they otherwise would have been. These comments were used in BBC & Times articles.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2017
URL http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-41859288
 
Description MEDIA 2017/12 - December 6th 2017: comments on study indicating low climate senisitivity is less likely 
Form Of Engagement Activity A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Media (as a channel to the public)
Results and Impact Comments on Brown and Caldeira study indicating low climate senisitivity is less likely. This was used by the Science Media Centre and distributed to national media.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2017
URL http://www.sciencemediacentre.org/expert-reaction-to-research-suggesting-greater-future-global-warmi...
 
Description MEDIA 2018/01 - January 10th 2018: Hudson weather interview on how possible future solar minimum will not make much of a dent in human-caused global warming 
Form Of Engagement Activity A broadcast e.g. TV/radio/film/podcast (other than news/press)
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact January 10th 2018: Hudson weather interview on how possible future solar minimum will not make much of a dent in human-caused global warming. This was undertaken to dispel the myth that future changes in the sun will drive climate change and that the "Little Ice Age" was not a real ice age and than many factors including volcanoes explain the cooler global period, not just lower sunspots in the Maunder minimum.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
URL http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p05rtd0d#play
 
Description MEDIA 2018/01 - January 18th 2018: Multiple interviews about climate change and weather extremes 
Form Of Engagement Activity A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Media (as a channel to the public)
Results and Impact January 18th 2018: Multiple media interviews on climate and weather. Comment son new study improving confidence in climate predictions with quotes in the Guardian and on the BBC in relation to record non-El Nino warmth in 2017. Also interviews on TalkRadio and a Sputnik News interview on the world economic forum report highlighting the risk of extreme weather. https://www.theguardian.com/science/2018/jan/18/worst-case-global-warming-scenarios-not-credible-says-study http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-42736397 https://sputniknews.com/analysis/201801191060871115-extreme-weather-global-threat http://www.reading.ac.uk/news-and-events/releases/PR754614.asp
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
URL https://sputniknews.com/analysis/201801191060871115-extreme-weather-global-threat
 
Description Meeting at BEIS on climate science 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact Visit to BEIS to discuss research gaps in climate science - presented SMURPHS results
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2017
 
Description Minister for Universities talk at University of Leeds 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact Newly appointed Minister for Universities, Chris Skidmore to visit The Priestley International centre for Climate on the 7th March 2019 for an overview of the School of Earth and Environment as well as a view of the University as a whole.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
 
Description OUTREACH 2017/11 Was there a pause in global warming? Results from the DEEP-C project, Discussion group, St. Anne's College, University of Oxford, 1st November 2017 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Postgraduate students
Results and Impact Was there a pause in global warming? Results from the DEEP-C (and SMURPHS/NCEO work) projects were debated at a discussion group, St. Anne's College, University of Oxford, 1st November 2017
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2017
URL http://www.met.rdg.ac.uk/~sgs02rpa/TALKS/AllanRP_DEEP_C-Oxford.pdf
 
Description OUTREACH 2018/01 - The Science of Climate Change, Year 9 Climate Event, Wednesday 17th January, University of Reading 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an open day or visit at my research institution
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Regional
Primary Audience Schools
Results and Impact An interactive lecture on The Science of Climate Change was presented at a Year 9 Climate Event, Wednesday 17th January, University of Reading. Infrared thermometers were used by students to demonstrate the greenhouse effect and students also participated in demonstrations of feedback loops. I discussed weather extremes including intense rainfall. I received excellent feedback from the organizers and students, many of who enjoyed my section the most out of their days climate activities.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
URL http://www.met.rdg.ac.uk/~sgs02rpa/TALKS/AllanRP1701Climate-Outreach.pdf
 
Description One Day in Leeds 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an open day or visit at my research institution
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Supporters
Results and Impact This event was put on by the university in order to inform influential alumni about the research going on at Leeds.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2017
 
Description Pint of Science Festival 2017 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Regional
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact A series of public engagement events based on climate, past present and future, held in pubs.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2017
 
Description Public debate with Piers Corbyn London 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Supporters
Results and Impact Debate with Piers Corbyn organised by debating society - Conway Hall
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2016
URL https://conwayhall.org.uk/issue/vol-122-no-1/
 
Description Public talk, Kent 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Invited to talk to local organisation
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
 
Description SMURPHS working group Oslo 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact SMURPHS collaboration and plan for further work
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
 
Description The Conversation: The Climate Clock, Counting down to 1.5C 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5? has opened a window to limit global warming to 1.5? above pre-industrial levels, but carbon dioxide emissions are projected to increase in 2018 for the second year in a row. If this trend continues, emissions will drive global temperatures to 1.5? in less than 16 years.

The Climate Clock we created shows how quickly we are approaching 1.5? of global warming, given current emissions trends. Here, we present our third annual update of the clock in light of the most recent scientific data, released on Dec. 5, 2018.http://www.climateclock.net/
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
URL https://theconversation.com/the-climate-clock-counting-down-to-1-5-107498
 
Description The Royal Meteorological Society- Talk Durham March 2019 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact The Royal Meteorological Society is a long-established organisation based in the UK that promotes the understanding of weather and climate. they support anyone with an interest in the subject, whether that's through a personal interest or their professional work, thus hosting events such as the one Piers has delivered.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
URL https://www.rmets.org/event/climate-science-climate-policy
 
Description Vist to Gordon conference - invited presentation 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact I gave a plenary invited talk at the Gordon conference on climate engineering
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2017
 
Description Weather and Sport How does the weather affect football, golf and cricket? Kate Sambrook- favourite sports could be severely affected by climate change in coming years. 
Form Of Engagement Activity A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact How does the weather affect football, golf and cricket? BBC Look North weatherman Paul Hudson talks to SMURPHS researcher Kate Sambrook, who says Paul's favourite sports could be severely affected by climate change in coming years. PLUS award-winning American weather journalist Andrew Revkin, who has written for the New York Times and National Geographic about 500 years of weather stories and heroes.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/42936199
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2017,2018
URL https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p06bdrxt
 
Description Web Press Release: Avoiding fossil fuel 'lock-in' could help limit global temperature rise 
Form Of Engagement Activity Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Media (as a channel to the public)
Results and Impact Research suggests there would be a 64% chance of limiting the increase in global average temperatures to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, if fossil fuel infrastructure was phased out immediately.

An international team of scientists led by the University of Leeds has used a new climate model to determine what would happen to global temperatures if the phase-out process for carbon-intensive infrastructure had begun at the end of 2018.

In the study's scenario, fossil fuel power plants, cars, aircraft, ships, and industrial infrastructure are replaced with zero carbon alternatives at the end of their design lifetime - the point where large scale refurbishments or maintenance would be required.

The team found that if the process of replacing these systems with zero carbon alternatives - or not replacing them at all - began from the end of 2018, and their subsequent CO2 emissions decreased at close to a linear rate as a result, the chance of keeping global temperature rise to below 1.5°C is 64%.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
URL https://www.leeds.ac.uk/news/article/4353/avoiding_fossil_fuel_lock-in_could_help_limit_global_tempe...
 
Description White Rose Brussels, Eu Parliment seminar 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact Formal Presentation to EU MEPs on climate change
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2016
URL http://climate.leeds.ac.uk/news/air-quality-success-but-how-will-brexit-impact/
 
Description joint report collaborating with NGOs 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Media (as a channel to the public)
Results and Impact Show the Love: Recipe for Disaster: How climate change is impacting British fruit and vegetables
https://www.theclimatecoalition.org/recipefordisaster
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
URL https://www.theclimatecoalition.org/recipefordisaster