The velocity of evolutionary responses of species to ecological change; testing adaptive limits in time and space
Lead Research Organisation:
University of York
Department Name: Biology
Abstract
Climate change is causing the populations of some species to increase, some to remain relatively stable, and others to decline, even when the species co-exist and might be expected to exhibit comparable ecological responses (e.g., some southern species have expanded their ranges northwards, whereas others have retreated). This diversity of responses to climate change may reflect differences in their capacities to undertake evolutionary and plastic responses that determine success or failure. However, multi-species studies of historical evolutionary responses to environmental change are lacking. In the proposed research, we will use: (1) analyses of historical and present-day DNA from 30 species (10 declining, 10 stable and 10 expanding) to identify the commonality or diversity of adaptive responses to anthropogenic climate change; (2) experimental studies to tease apart plastic, epigenetic and evolutionary responses in a focal species; and (3) modelling to evaluate the contributions of evolutionary, epigenetic and plastic changes to the responses of British Lepidoptera to past and future climatic changes.
Moths and butterflies represent an ideal study group because extensive datasets allow us to document the ecological (population abundance, distribution change) and plastic (phenology) responses of species to climate change over the past four decades with a precision not possible for other taxa. Their annual (or faster) generations permit rapid evolutionary change as well as plastic responses to within- and between-year variation in climatic conditions. Museum collections will enable us to assess historical levels of genetic variation within our study species prior to 20th century anthropogenic climate change.
We will take advantage of recent advances in sequencing technology to quantify ancestral genetic variation in our study species, and compare this with current genomic diversity to enumerate genetic changes taking place in declining, stable and increasing species, and specifically to evaluate whether species with higher levels of genetic variation show greater ability to adapt to climate change. We will complement this multi-species analysis by evaluating the capacity of expanding, stable and declining populations of one focal species, Pararge aegeria (Speckled wood butterfly) to exhibit evolutionary change, phenotypic plasticity and epigenetic effects using experiments in which we manipulate environmental conditions during larval development (temperature, photoperiod and host-plant desiccation). These experiments will reveal if there are environmental thresholds beyond which adaptive plasticity fails, and the potential for plasticity to evolve and buffer species under future environments. We will then use dynamic simulation models that incorporate our empirical data to test the relative importance of phenotypic plasticity, epigenetic effects, and evolutionary responses in determining species' responses to climate change, and how the relative importance of these factors varies among different species and population types. Once calibrated, we can then use our models to project the responses of these species to future climate change, based on observed limits to adaptation and plasticity.
Distinguishing the key factors (ecological, demographic, and genomic) that determine species' responses to environmental change, and how these depend on evolutionary responses, will allow us to identify potential conservation strategies to facilitate population persistence and growth in the face of ongoing climate change.
Moths and butterflies represent an ideal study group because extensive datasets allow us to document the ecological (population abundance, distribution change) and plastic (phenology) responses of species to climate change over the past four decades with a precision not possible for other taxa. Their annual (or faster) generations permit rapid evolutionary change as well as plastic responses to within- and between-year variation in climatic conditions. Museum collections will enable us to assess historical levels of genetic variation within our study species prior to 20th century anthropogenic climate change.
We will take advantage of recent advances in sequencing technology to quantify ancestral genetic variation in our study species, and compare this with current genomic diversity to enumerate genetic changes taking place in declining, stable and increasing species, and specifically to evaluate whether species with higher levels of genetic variation show greater ability to adapt to climate change. We will complement this multi-species analysis by evaluating the capacity of expanding, stable and declining populations of one focal species, Pararge aegeria (Speckled wood butterfly) to exhibit evolutionary change, phenotypic plasticity and epigenetic effects using experiments in which we manipulate environmental conditions during larval development (temperature, photoperiod and host-plant desiccation). These experiments will reveal if there are environmental thresholds beyond which adaptive plasticity fails, and the potential for plasticity to evolve and buffer species under future environments. We will then use dynamic simulation models that incorporate our empirical data to test the relative importance of phenotypic plasticity, epigenetic effects, and evolutionary responses in determining species' responses to climate change, and how the relative importance of these factors varies among different species and population types. Once calibrated, we can then use our models to project the responses of these species to future climate change, based on observed limits to adaptation and plasticity.
Distinguishing the key factors (ecological, demographic, and genomic) that determine species' responses to environmental change, and how these depend on evolutionary responses, will allow us to identify potential conservation strategies to facilitate population persistence and growth in the face of ongoing climate change.
Planned Impact
Our research will test how biological responses to environmental change depend on the plastic and evolutionary responses of populations to the physical and biological environments they encounter. We will estimate the amount evolutionary change within populations, identify the effects of genetic variation and plasticity on recent evolutionary rates (and vice versa), and evaluate the effects of within-population (genetic variation) and within-individual (plasticity) flexibility in the responses of species to a century of rapid environmental change.
1. Research users and their requirements. The output of our research will have direct relevance to: Government agencies, National NGOs/Conservation Charities, European/Global government and intergovernmental bodies/frameworks, and European/Global NGOs/Conservation Charities.
These organisations are keen to develop conservation strategies that will be robust under climate change. However, they are constrained by a lack of clear scientific guidance on what species, and under what conditions, maintaining genetic and plastic variation within species will be crucial for the persistence of communities and ecosystems.
2. Methods to engage end-users for maximum societal impact.
Partnership Government and NGOs typically require scientific outputs to be re-framed in a manner relevant to conservation policies and actions. We will do this through collaboration between researchers and stakeholders. Methods to engage end-users will include:
a) Co-development of research and publications. We will continue our strategy of co-development and co-authorship of scientific papers with Butterfly Conservation (BC) and using data collected by citizen scientists of the NHM, BC, and NERC CEH.
b) Assessment of need through a working group. We will organise a Knowledge Exchange workshop with ~20 stakeholders, including representatives from Project Partner Butterfly Conservation, as well as SNH, Natural England, JNCC, NRW, Forestry Commission, Defra, Buglife, RSPB, National Trust, National Trust Scotland, Plantlife, BSBI, WWF, UNEP and County Trusts, to present results and co-develop a summary of key results so to achieve maximum impact within their organisations and amongst their memberships.
c) Production of a report to summarise findings according to stakeholder needs. The report will identify factors affecting flexibility in the responses of species to rapid environmental change, and predictions for limits to flexibility in future and identify which types of species are most vulnerable. This will inform appropriate adaptation actions to ensure favourable conservation status of species. The exact form of the report will be shaped at the workshop.
d) Publication and presentation of report to stakeholders.
1. The report: will be published in a form appropriate to stakeholders (summarising major conclusions, with supplementary species-specific online information), the exact form depending on the advice of stakeholders during the workshop.
2. Public discourse: we will present our findings at BC's AGM and give talks to other stakeholders according to advice/invitations received through the workshop.
e) Wider dissemination to the general public. All partners have effective press offices and commitment to dissemination; we have produced six press releases in the last two years, with average success of ~100 press items per release. The NHM and BC will disseminate information through online publications and their communication networks (including links to all other UK and many international museums).
1. Research users and their requirements. The output of our research will have direct relevance to: Government agencies, National NGOs/Conservation Charities, European/Global government and intergovernmental bodies/frameworks, and European/Global NGOs/Conservation Charities.
These organisations are keen to develop conservation strategies that will be robust under climate change. However, they are constrained by a lack of clear scientific guidance on what species, and under what conditions, maintaining genetic and plastic variation within species will be crucial for the persistence of communities and ecosystems.
2. Methods to engage end-users for maximum societal impact.
Partnership Government and NGOs typically require scientific outputs to be re-framed in a manner relevant to conservation policies and actions. We will do this through collaboration between researchers and stakeholders. Methods to engage end-users will include:
a) Co-development of research and publications. We will continue our strategy of co-development and co-authorship of scientific papers with Butterfly Conservation (BC) and using data collected by citizen scientists of the NHM, BC, and NERC CEH.
b) Assessment of need through a working group. We will organise a Knowledge Exchange workshop with ~20 stakeholders, including representatives from Project Partner Butterfly Conservation, as well as SNH, Natural England, JNCC, NRW, Forestry Commission, Defra, Buglife, RSPB, National Trust, National Trust Scotland, Plantlife, BSBI, WWF, UNEP and County Trusts, to present results and co-develop a summary of key results so to achieve maximum impact within their organisations and amongst their memberships.
c) Production of a report to summarise findings according to stakeholder needs. The report will identify factors affecting flexibility in the responses of species to rapid environmental change, and predictions for limits to flexibility in future and identify which types of species are most vulnerable. This will inform appropriate adaptation actions to ensure favourable conservation status of species. The exact form of the report will be shaped at the workshop.
d) Publication and presentation of report to stakeholders.
1. The report: will be published in a form appropriate to stakeholders (summarising major conclusions, with supplementary species-specific online information), the exact form depending on the advice of stakeholders during the workshop.
2. Public discourse: we will present our findings at BC's AGM and give talks to other stakeholders according to advice/invitations received through the workshop.
e) Wider dissemination to the general public. All partners have effective press offices and commitment to dissemination; we have produced six press releases in the last two years, with average success of ~100 press items per release. The NHM and BC will disseminate information through online publications and their communication networks (including links to all other UK and many international museums).
Publications
Kinsella RS
(2020)
Unlocking the potential of historical abundance datasets to study biomass change in flying insects.
in Ecology and evolution
Macgregor CJ
(2019)
Climate-induced phenology shifts linked to range expansions in species with multiple reproductive cycles per year.
in Nature communications
Macgregor CJ
(2019)
Moth biomass increases and decreases over 50 years in Britain.
in Nature ecology & evolution
Mead D
(2021)
The genome sequence of the ringlet, Aphantopus hyperantus Linnaeus 1758
in Wellcome Open Research
Minter M
(2020)
Past, current, and potential future distributions of unique genetic diversity in a cold-adapted mountain butterfly.
in Ecology and evolution
Minter M
(2021)
Exploring the potential for 'Gene Conservation Units' to conserve genetic diversity in wild populations
in Ecological Solutions and Evidence
Palmer G
(2017)
Climate change, climatic variation and extreme biological responses.
in Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences
Platts PJ
(2019)
Habitat availability explains variation in climate-driven range shifts across multiple taxonomic groups.
in Scientific reports
Title | Wing morphological responses to latitude and colonisation in a range expanding butterfly |
Description | Images of male Speckled Wood butterfly ( Pararge aegeria) wings that were collected (during 2016-2018) across a recently expanded range in mainland Britain. The wings were used to study changes in morphology (size and shape) and colour with colonisation history, latitude and temperature. Images were taken by Evelyn D. Taylor-Cox and Claire Williams in the Lepidoptera Ecological Genetics Group at the Univeristy of Liverpool, under the supervision of Ilik J. Saccheri. Files included: Parage_aegeria_RAW.zip Nikon raw camera images (.NEF) with ColorGauge Micro Target (Image Science Associates) colour calibration grid Raw_example.NEF Example raw image for preview Pararge_aegeria_landmarks_jpeg.zip Selected wings for landmarking and associated landmark coordinate files (.TPS) These images have been calibrated and cropped to either the left forewing or hindwing (dorsal surfaces only) Pararge_aegeria_colour_png.zip Selected wings for colour analysis (.png) These images have been calibrated and cropped to either the left forewing or hindwing (both ventral and dorsal) Calib_cropped_FW_D_example.png Example cropped and calibrated forewing image, dorsal surface (in .png format) Nomenculture (for 2017/18 samples, principle collector EDTC): PA_*_XX: site number (*) and site code (XX) _##: within site sample number (##) _V or _D: ventral or dorsal surface Nomenculture (for 2016/7 samples, principle collector CM): PA_**M#: site reference(**)_Male (M)_within site number(#) _V or _D: ventral or dorsal surface This work was funded by the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC ACCE: studentship to EDTC, grant number NE/L002450/1, NE/N015711/1 awarded to IJS and NE/N015797/1 JKH). Please contact Ilik J. Saccheri (saccheri@liverpool.ac.uk) or Evelyn D. Taylor-Cox (e.taylorcox@hotmail.co.uk) for requests. |
Type Of Art | Image |
Year Produced | 2020 |
URL | https://zenodo.org/record/3816842 |
Title | Wing morphological responses to latitude and colonisation in a range expanding butterfly |
Description | Images of male Speckled Wood butterfly ( Pararge aegeria) wings that were collected (during 2016-2018) across a recently expanded range in mainland Britain. The wings were used to study changes in morphology (size and shape) and colour with colonisation history, latitude and temperature. Images were taken by Evelyn D. Taylor-Cox and Claire Williams in the Lepidoptera Ecological Genetics Group at the Univeristy of Liverpool, under the supervision of Ilik J. Saccheri. Files included: Parage_aegeria_RAW.zip Nikon raw camera images (.NEF) with ColorGauge Micro Target (Image Science Associates) colour calibration grid Raw_example.NEF Example raw image for preview Pararge_aegeria_landmarks_jpeg.zip Selected wings for landmarking and associated landmark coordinate files (.TPS) These images have been calibrated and cropped to either the left forewing or hindwing (dorsal surfaces only) Pararge_aegeria_colour_png.zip Selected wings for colour analysis (.png) These images have been calibrated and cropped to either the left forewing or hindwing (both ventral and dorsal) Calib_cropped_FW_D_example.png Example cropped and calibrated forewing image, dorsal surface (in .png format) Nomenculture (for 2017/18 samples, principle collector EDTC): PA_*_XX: site number (*) and site code (XX) _##: within site sample number (##) _V or _D: ventral or dorsal surface Nomenculture (for 2016/7 samples, principle collector CM): PA_**M#: site reference(**)_Male (M)_within site number(#) _V or _D: ventral or dorsal surface This work was funded by the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC ACCE: studentship to EDTC, grant number NE/L002450/1, NE/N015711/1 awarded to IJS and NE/N015797/1 JKH). Please contact Ilik J. Saccheri (saccheri@liverpool.ac.uk) or Evelyn D. Taylor-Cox (e.taylorcox@hotmail.co.uk) for requests. |
Type Of Art | Image |
Year Produced | 2020 |
URL | https://zenodo.org/record/3816843 |
Description | We have analysed long-term abundance data for Lepidoptera to examine impacts of climate on phenology, and how phenology shifts subsequently affect species' distributions. This analysis is to examine the role of phenotypic plasticity in resilience to climate warming. Advances in phenology (the annual timing of species' life-cycles) in response to climate change are generally viewed as bioindicators of climate change, but have not been considered as predictors of range expansions. Our analyses show that phenology advances combine with the number of reproductive cycles per year (voltinism) to shape abundance and distribution trends in 130 species of British Lepidoptera, in response to ~0.5 °C spring-temperature warming between 1995 and 2014. Early adult emergence in warm years resulted in increased within- and between-year population growth for species with multiple reproductive cycles per year (n = 39 multivoltine species). By contrast, early emergence had neutral or negative consequences for species with a single annual reproductive cycle (n = 91 univoltine species), depending on habitat specialisation. We conclude that phenology advances facilitate polewards range expansions in species exhibiting plasticity for both phenology and voltinism, but may inhibit expansion by less flexible species. |
Exploitation Route | Evidence that historical museum material can be used to understand genetic adaptation and species' responses to climate change will be important for policy makers and researchers, as well as organisations holding such collections of material. Evidence of the resilience of species to climate change will be important for conservationists, researchers and policy makers. |
Sectors | Environment |
Description | Stakeholder workshop. |
Geographic Reach | National |
Policy Influence Type | Influenced training of practitioners or researchers |
Description | Butterfly Conservation 50th Symposium, invited speaker |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | Dissemination of information about the ecological impacts of climate change for Lepidoptera |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2018 |
Description | Darwin Week speaker (University of Exeter) |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Local |
Primary Audience | Postgraduate students |
Results and Impact | Discussion of climate change impacts on butterflies |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
Description | ESA Portland Invited speaker |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | Conference presentation |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2017 |
Description | Featured museum exhibition |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Regional |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | Contributed to the University of Cambridge Museum 'Butterflies Through Time' project. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
Description | Kerner von Marilaun festive symposium, Austrian Academy of Sciences, Vienna, invited speaker |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Postgraduate students |
Results and Impact | Discussion and dissemination of evidence on the impacts of climate change on biodiversity. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2020 |
Description | Margaret Savigear symposium, University of Sheffield, invited speaker |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Regional |
Primary Audience | Postgraduate students |
Results and Impact | Discussion of the impacts of climate change for UK biodiversity. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2020 |
Description | Natural England Climate Change Network Webinar, invited speaker |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | Dissemination of evidence and discussion on the ecological impacts of climate change. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2018 |
Description | New Scientist Live |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Regional |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | Presentation followed by Q&A |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2017 |