Increasing Resilience to Environmental Hazards in Border Conflict Zone

This foundation research proposal focuses on building resilience in a frontier conflict zone subject to multiple environmental hazards. Its rationale is that resilience can be addressed through understanding the hazard risks and the heightened vulnerabilities of the people only in the context of knowledge of the history of disasters and analysis of the impact of conflict on social relations.

The Hindu-Kush Himalaya region is home to over 200 million people. The mountains are the source of the major rivers of Asia which support 1.3 billion people. The landscape of the Himalaya is a result of a continuing competition between on the one hand collision of tectonic plates, which has raised the Himalaya mountains, and on the other gravity, which causes erosion. Eroded sediments are deposited by glaciers and rivers. The high rate of these processes of uplift, erosion and sedimentation creates a highly dynamic environment which causes earthquakes, landslides, floods, excess temperatures, wind and snow storm and drought. This fragile environment is subject to rapid regional climate change and affected by uneven development (including high levels of seasonal tourism). These environmental hazards impact lives, livelihoods and critical infrastructure.
Within the region, Kashmir covers the Indian state of Jammu and Kashmir (subdivided into Jammu, Kashmir and Ladakh), the Pakistan state of Azad Jammu and Kashmir and the territory of Gilgit-Baltistan, and the Chinese-administered territory of Aksai Chin. The recent history of Kashmir is of over-lapping territorial claims of three nuclear powers, China, India and Pakistan (with the world's first, third and sixth largest armies), war and resolution (in 1947, 1962, 1965 and 1999), but with on-going internal conflict, border incursions and insurgency, which has led to communities divided across borders, militarised infrastructure and internal migration.

These all have the potential to increase community vulnerability as they disrupt social relations.
The project will focus on Ladakh. It was the scene of the most recent Indo-Pakistan war, the 1999 Kargil War, and has suffered cross-border infiltration from Pakistan and Afghanistan and incursions from China (e.g., across the Pangong Lake in 2014) which have intersected with internal tensions between communities. The official languages of Ladakh are Ladakhi, Tibetan, Urdu and Balti, with most Ladakhi being either Tibetan Buddhist or Shia Muslim, reflecting the mixed social and ethnic constitution of Ladakh. Population dynamics, economic growth and mass tourism are generating pressure on natural resources with migration and uncertain agricultural production modifying familial and village relationships and nomadic communities (i.e., the social capital). Ladakh experiences frequent major floods and landslides. These are locally well recognised and will help us engage with communities on multi-hazard approaches and infrequent hazard events.

In a joint project between the natural, social and historical sciences we will examine the historical evolution of the landscape of the Himalaya, the drivers of hazards and the effect of human impact. We will assess the vulnerabilities and social relations of communities in Ladakh, their cross-borders links, relations with other communities and migration. We will analyse the history of disasters, in the broader Kashmir region, the cultural and political development of the region, and assess the impact of conflict on resilience and adaptation.

The outcome of this project will be an understanding, in the historical context of a border conflict zone, how changing social relations increase or decrease social capital and vulnerability to environmental hazard risks. It is a key aim to build partnerships between researchers and practitioners across disciplines, across the Hindu Kush-Himalaya and with policy-makers, engineers, educators, NGOs, local communities, businesses and schools.

1. Policy-makers
It is a key aim of this foundation proposal to develop partnerships with policy-makers at national, state and district levels in India. India has a sophisticated National Policy on Disaster Management, with decentralized disaster management, and a vision to "build a safe and disaster resilient India by developing a holistic, proactive, multi-disaster oriented and technology driven strategy through a culture of prevention, mitigation, preparedness and response". In the frame of this foundation project, we will seek to understand the processes and mechanisms operating and to influence aspects of disaster management planning.

At a national level, over the long term, our research would influence guidelines for disaster management issued by the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) of India. Our research should bring new understanding of social capital in border-zone and migrant communities.

At a state level, since, our research will support the development of the Jammu and Kashmir State disaster management plans. In particular, our gathering and consolidating of environmental hazard data will be a valuable resource. Our work on education will consider effective strategies for communicating understanding of disaster risks to school students.

At a district level our detailed work on environmental hazard risks in relation to local communities will support the development and updating of local disaster management plans. The information would be made available quickly and to could have immediate benefit.

2. Engineering and project consultancies
The project will aim to impact infrastructure engineering, project evaluation, design and management and land-use planning and management. Our project team includes two engineering consultancies (see letters of support) as partners.

Atkins is one of the world's largest engineering and project consultancies and is responsible for projects in the HKH region. Hearn Geoserve is a specialist consultancy that has optimised the development of landslide susceptibility maps for planning purposes in the Himalaya and developed guidelines on how rural communities should best manage their land and livelihoods to minimise their exposure to landslides and related hazards. Both of these have extensive experience working in the Himalaya. They will join the scene-setting London Scenario Workshop, contribute expertise and contribute to the project final report.

The engineering consultancies will benefit from the co-produced approach on how the evolving landscape influences the hazard drivers (including in that the role of environmental change) and an understanding of the different vulnerabilities of peoples in border conflict zones.

3. Local communities
Our project would directly impact the local communities in the research areas, and in particular schools and school students. We would raise awareness of environmental hazards, disaster risk reduction and response strategies in the frame of the project. In particular our understanding of the social relations will assist in shaping communication and education strategies.

In the longer term, a key aim of this project is to establish a stakeholder community of users and beneficiaries which would also include local leaders, development practitioners, technical specialists, educators and students, NGOs and businesses (including farming and tourism). This stakeholder community would include representatives of resident and migratory peoples. We would raise awareness of environmental hazards, but also work with them on environmental impacts and mitigation strategies.