Characterising and adapting to climate risks in the UK wine sector

Lead Research Organisation: London School of Economics and Political Science
Department Name: Grantham Research Inst on Climate Change

Abstract

The cultivation of wine grapes under cool-climate conditions in England and Wales is rapidly expanding and resulting sparkling wines in particular are winning international awards and acclaim. Warming growing season trends associated with global warming are supporting growth in vineyard numbers and the planting of more consumer popular grape varieties, while also attracting significant international investment interest. However, while the 2018 growing season has produced a record harvest, in very grape-friendly growing conditions, year to year fluctuations in climate still regularly threaten the sustainability of the sector. Yields are still on average less than one third of those found in the Champagne region of France, for example, and in certain years such as 2012, some English vineyards harvested no grapes at all.
The proposed collaboration is between the London School of Economics and the University of East Anglia. Researchers at each institute have highly relevant experience, for example, the team includes a wine sector specialist, a climate scientist and a social scientist with experience of adaptation in businesses.
The first aim of this research is to capitalise on the launch of new future climate change projections for the UK to assess how critical growing season characteristics for wine grapes may change over the coming decades. We propose to develop our research which has focused upon the development of the wine sector up to now, to show how future climate trends out to 2050 may influence the sector, and thereby offer guidance to enhance the sector's resilience to climate change.
Second, working directly with the national organisation for grape growers and winemakers (Wines of Great Britain), we will examine how businesses make decisions about adapting to future climate change, thereby helping to ensure that this fledgling industry has a bright future.
As yet, there is limited information about climate change that wine producers or investors can use for decision making.
The research has the following objectives:
1) To produce a very detailed dataset of air frost risk (still a critical hazard for grape growth) to more accurately quantify local frost risk and hence site suitability for growing grapes (viticulture) in the current climate.
2) To develop indicators of climatic risk under future climate change for the 2030s and 2050s based on newly available climate model projections for the UK.
3) To assess decision-making processes with respect to adaptation in the wine sector and examine the role of perceptions of climate change risk and opportunities in decision-making.
The wine sector can be used as an example of an 'early adoptor' of climate adaptation in the UK through which there is an opportunity to study the process by which businesses are making decisions about risk management. Since the overall direction of change in climate has been positive for UK wine production this proposal focuses, unusually, on both the opportunities and risks of climate change.
Our research will use a multi-methods approach. Climate science for the development of new climate projections and climatic risk factors. And social science or qualitative methods (interviews and survey) to understand the resilience and behavioural dimensions of adaptation.
The research is designed to generate practical support for adaptation to climate change in the UK (climate resilience) particularly for, but not restricted to, the wine sector. Informed by our longstanding relationship with stakeholders in the wine sector we will advise national climate change assessments and policy processes through consultation. We will work alongside Wines of Great Britain to ensure a co-designed and shared approach. We will work with a Communications and Policy team to identify audiences and the main messages from our results and prepare a Policy Brief for decision-makers and a short video (for YouTube) that captures our key recommendations.

Planned Impact

Impact is integral to our aims and activities, from initial design, informed by our longstanding relationship with stakeholders in the wine sector, ongoing through the research process and into the planning of dissemination activities and outputs. Much of our research experience has been informed by conversations with target audiences and we will seek their inputs throughout the research and dissemination processes.
We believe our strategic choice of the rapidly growing Great Britain wine sector will ensure strong policy interest and uptake of results facilitated through effective communication tools and relevant channels.
Sector-specific impact - Dr Nesbitt and Professor Dorling have strong connections with individuals, organisations and businesses in the UK wine production sector. We have agreed collaboration with Wines of Great Britain, the national body for all grape growers and wine producers in Great Britain.
Specific activities include promoting new viticulture related climate projections and bioclimatic indices to vineyard managers through a programme of presentations delivered through Regional Grower Associations. We will prepare briefing material on emerging climate risks and opportunities to use with stakeholder surveys and so raise awareness and understanding across the sector.
National processes - We will inform processes such as the Third UK Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA3). PI Conway is part of the successful team that won the bid to prepare the CCRA3 Evidence Report Technical Chapters. As a contributing author he will ensure that results from this project feed into relevant chapters. Where opportunities arise we will target consultations and meetings that comprise part of other national processes such as the National Adaptation Programme.
We will work with a Communications and Policy team to define audiences and messaging and prepare a Policy Brief to capture key insights from the project. Publication will be timed to achieve maximum impact by tying-in with an article publication, launch of the video (see below) or a wine sector event.
Wider impact, public and media - Due to very positive feedback from stakeholders in a previous project we will produce a short video that will capture key insights from the research that are relevant for stakeholders in the wine sector and more broadly for businesses.
Our recent work in the climate-viticulture space is already attracting significant industry attention, typified by the article authored by Andrew Jefford on the Decanter website (December 3rd, 2018; https://www.decanter.com/wine-news/opinion/jefford-on-monday/jefford-on-monday-where-to-plant-uk-vineyards-405311/):
"A flourishing English sparkling wine scene is one of the few pieces of climate-change good news, and the magnificent 2018 English wine harvest has brought it into close focus. The timing, therefore, could hardly have been better for the publication of an academic paper last month outlining what we might call the terroir potential of England and Wales. Lead author is Dr Alistair Nesbitt from the English Vine and Wine Consultancy, working with Professor Stephen Dorling and Professor Andrew Lovett of the University of East Anglia."

Publications

10 25 50
 
Description Between 1981-2000 and 1999-2018 growing season average temperatures (GSTs) in the main UK viticulture regions have warmed ~1oC and are now more often >14oC GST. This warming has underpinned rapid expansion of the UK viticulture sector and its dominant focus on growing grape varieties for sparkling wine.
Using the latest high-resolution climate change models for the UK we calculate near-term (2021-2040) trends and variability in climatic factors important for the UK vine-growing season. We model the projected spatial and temporal repetition of the UK's highest yielding season - 2018 and use a comparative approach to model the 1999-2018 mean growing season temperatures from Champagne (France), Burgundy (France) and Baden (Germany) over the UK during 2021-2040.
Our results show that growing season precipitation is projected to reduce in most UK vine growing areas but is not modelled as a limiting factor on production. High year to year weather variability remains a consistent feature of the UK grape growing-climate and early season frost risk is likely to advance. Accounting for change in vine variety suitability and wine styles will be essential to maximise opportunities and build resilience within this rapidly expanding wine region. Interviews with stakeholders in the sector highlight the importance of taking climate change in to account in present-day decisions about vine selection and other investments that will be subject to different climate conditions in the coming 2-3 decades.
Exploitation Route The results are informing project partner ongoing interactions with the wine sector, particularly in the UK, through presentations at meetings, advisories to businesses and sector bodies. The web-outputs and research papers will increasingly inform practice in the sector by highlighting risks and giving insights into how adaptation can be approached effectively.
Sectors Agriculture

Food and Drink

Environment

 
Description Our initial blog contributed to increasing interest in our research from grape growers and winemakers, as well as from academic and other practitioner audiences. It has also helped us establish a visible online project presence, to support our broader interactions with sectoral actors. For example, we have been invited to present the results of our research at DEFRA later in the year and were approached by The Guardian newspaper to offer advice on an article they were running on climate change and viticulture. It has also offered a resource that we have been able to share, to set the tone for the analysis that we are doing, as we recruit research participants from within the sector and we have received good feedback on this when we have done so. We are now writing up results to profile key findings after serious delays due to Covid. In the meantime we have profiled our unpublished results through a Webinar and short feature in NERC Planet Earth. Our CREWS-UK findings, published in 2022 in the journal OENO-One, showed how the climate of a larger area of England and Wales is projected to become suitable for reliably growing sparkling wine grape varieties, and how the potential for high quality still wine production is rapidly emerging. A UEA Press Release helped to generate widespread coverage (245 items), including the front page of the Times Printed Edition. Later, the research also featured on Farming Today on Radio 4 and also on the BBC's Countryfile TV programme. The research findings are now being integrated into the viticulture-climate consultancy services offered by Vinescapes. With a typical lifetime of 30+ years, vines planted today need to be matched to the anticipated climate of 2021-50. A second paper was published in late 2023 and this has been accompanied by an engagement event with WineGB - The national association for the English and Welsh wine industry and plans agreed to produce a policy brief and another dissemination event in 2024.
First Year Of Impact 2020
Sector Agriculture, Food and Drink,Environment
Impact Types Societal

Economic

 
Description Our research findings are profiled in the Third UK Climate Change Risk Assessment Technical Report - Box 6.7 (page 150).
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Citation in systematic reviews
URL https://www.lse.ac.uk/granthaminstitute/resilient-wine/
 
Description Invitation from WineGB to take up the position of Chair of their Special Interest Group (SIG) on R&D in Grapegrowing and Winemaking 
Organisation Wines of Great Britain
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Private 
PI Contribution A measure of the esteem associated with our research can be gauged by Dr Alistair Nesbitt accepting an invitation from WineGB, in August 2020, to take up the position of Chair of their Special Interest Group (SIG) on R&D in Grapegrowing and Winemaking - Prof Dorling is also a member of this SIG. During 2022, Nesbitt and Dorling ran consultation workshops with WineGB Regional groups to compile stakeholder research priorities.
Collaborator Contribution Recognition of project contribution to industry body; In his Introduction to WineGB's Industry report 2021-22, WineGB CEO Simon Thorpe said "Change is a constant partner to our industry. This can be so clearly seen by the difference in growing conditions between 2022 and 2021. Last year we were looking at potentially needing to chaptalize still wines above the norm, this year we are wondering whether some acid adjustments would be useful. Of course, climate change, as illustrated in the recent report by Alistair Nesbitt and Steve Dorling, is having, and will continue to have an impact on the quality and styles of wine that we produce."
Impact This R&D group develops ongoing guidance and advice to disseminate to the WineGB community.
Start Year 2020
 
Description Academic/practitioners conference presentation 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Other audiences
Results and Impact Dr Nesbitt and Prof Dorling were invited to present the CREWS-UK findings at the International Cool Climate Wine Symposium at Brock University in Canada in July 2022.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2022
URL https://iccws2022.ca/
 
Description Blog on the need for climate change to be integrated into sector planning as the sector grows. 
Form Of Engagement Activity Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact We wrote a blog drawing on initial learning from within the project, as well as earlier research from within the team on the importance of integrating climate change projections and resilience planning into the UK sector now, given how quickly the sector is growing within the UK. The blog reflected on the relative opportunities for UK viticulture to be structured in ways that are responsive to climate change projections and to build resilience within the sector as it emerges - in comparison to more established viticulture landscapes which have already produced lock-in and thus face additional barriers to adaptation. The blog highlighted the risks of recreating this lock-in and reducing future flexibility and adaptive capacity within UK viticulture landscapes, if climate projections are not taken into account in key decisions around vineyard planting and the location of vineyards. The blog was published to align with UK Wine Week 2019.
The blog was published on the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, featured on the home page and located on the project-specific webpage developed for the project. It was viewed 524 unique times. It was also republished by LSE business review and featured on the front page.
The primary audience was academic. Nevertheless, it was also accessed by sector practitioners and producers, as well as journalists. For example, the article it was shared by WineGB, the national grape grower and wine producer association on social media.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
URL http://www.lse.ac.uk/GranthamInstitute/news/for-sustainable-growth-in-the-uks-wine-producing-industr...
 
Description Conference presentation 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Other audiences
Results and Impact Conference presentation of project results; Creativity and critical thinking in climate change adaptation: what can education learn from the UK wine sector?
The 8th Nordic Conference on Subject Education: Creativity, Literacy and Critical Thinking in Subject Education: Issues and Trends for the 21st Century, May 2021 https://www.hvl.no/en/research/conference/nofa8/
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2021
URL https://www.hvl.no/en/research/conference/nofa8/
 
Description Invited presentation at specially arranged Webinar organised by WINE GB (practitioners' professional organisation) 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Industry/Business
Results and Impact As an example of ongoing GB wine sector vulnerability to the variable climate, May 2020 saw damaging air frost events coinciding with the vulnerable budburst period, leading to partial or total yield losses in some GB vineyards. WineGB invited project members Steve Dorling and Alistair Nesbitt to speak at a specially arranged Webinar the following week, which attracted 150 vineyard managers and support staff.
This quickly triggered an online survey to capture the impacts and to learn lessons, to which Dorling contributed climate information - see url below.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2022
URL https://mapmanltd.maps.arcgis.com/apps/dashboards/666d3bd57872445f923603d8cff2779c
 
Description Invited presentations to British Beet Research Organisation 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Regional
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Two invited talks to the British Beet Research Organisation's BeetTech20 events (East Anglia). Approx 150 sugar beet growers at each event. The video of the presentation is available here:
https://bbro.co.uk/events/
The presentations were to provide information on climate and farming and to highlight aspects of this research project on climate change and wine growing in the UK.
There was subsequent coverage of the presentation in the Eastern Daily Press:
https://www.edp24.co.uk/business/farming/climate-change-has-made-norfolk-a-hotspot-for-wine-says-uea-professor-1-6504526
https://www.edp24.co.uk/business/farming/prof-steve-dorling-of-uea-and-weatherquest-speaks-at-bbro-beettech20-conference-1-6504363
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
URL https://bbro.co.uk/events/
 
Description Online seminar presentation for UK Climate Resilience Programme webinar series. 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Other audiences
Results and Impact Presentation (October 21st) - UK Climate Resilience Programme webinar series.
Joint presentation between academics and practitioners aiming to highlight the applications of the research. Positive feedback from several members of the audience.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2020
URL https://www.ukclimateresilience.org/news-events/characterising-and-adapting-to-climate-risks-in-the-...
 
Description Online video capturing research findings 
Form Of Engagement Activity A broadcast e.g. TV/radio/film/podcast (other than news/press)
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact The video captures the main aims of the projects and key findings relating to impacts of climate change and how to adapt.
The video is available on our Institute website and Youtube page.
It has been viewed 152 times as of March 2022.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2021,2022
URL https://www.lse.ac.uk/granthaminstitute/resilient-wine/
 
Description Presentation and survey with member of WineGB at National AGM event 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Industry/Business
Results and Impact A presentation was made giving an overview of the issue and the project aims. An outline of potential activities and products was given and feedback sought. An interactive survey was conducted with the members using electronic voting equipment - the questions were designed to asses interest in different types of project outputs. The results of the survey and discussion informed subsequent design of the research.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
URL https://thefruitgrower.co.uk/winegb-agm-and-climate-change-sustainability-conference/
 
Description Presentation of key findings and recommendations to sector body - WineGB 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Industry/Business
Results and Impact Invited online presentation of project results and recommendations to WineGB - the national association for the English and Welsh wine industry. The audience of roughly 20 members were highly engaged, and very positive feedback was given around importance of the work for members. Requested we present at upcoming members conference to share results much more widely with actors across the sector. Agreed to produce a policy brief to disseminate results wider still within the sector.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2024
 
Description Presentation to Practitioners' Annual Conference; WineGB Winemaking Conference, November 2022 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Presentation on the main results of the project to WineGB Winemaking Conference (Denbies in Surrey, 29th November) about 100 attendees (mainly winemakers). The presentation was covered in the Vineyard Magazine that goes to at least 600 producers.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2021
 
Description Presentation to Practitioners' Meeting, November 2022 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Presentation about the project main findings to practitioner/trade group - Vineyard and Winery Show (24th Nov 2021 at the Kent Showground) roughly 200 people (producers, potential producers, Journalists, suppliers, Policy Actors). Purpose was awareness raising about climate risk and information about how to respond.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2021,2022
 
Description Presentation to stakeholders; Southeast England WineGB members at AGM 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Regional
Primary Audience Industry/Business
Results and Impact A presentation was given to key stakeholders to present the aims of the project and to seek feedback on the aims, design and outputs, and to raise awareness about planned activities.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
 
Description Press release to promote first research paper. 
Form Of Engagement Activity A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Media (as a channel to the public)
Results and Impact A Press Release to promote our first research paper helped to generate widespread coverage (245 items), including the front page of the Times Printed Edition.
Aim - awareness raising and information provision.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2022
URL https://www.uea.ac.uk/news/-/article/study-predicts-growth-in-uk-wine-production-due-to-climate-chan...
 
Description Prof Dorling presented CREWS-UK findings at the 40th London Wine Fair in June 2022 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Industry/Business
Results and Impact Presented CREWS-UK findings at business practitioners' Annual Meeting.
Aim - awareness raising, guidance about climate change risk.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2022
 
Description Research also featured on Farming Today on Radio 4 
Form Of Engagement Activity A broadcast e.g. TV/radio/film/podcast (other than news/press)
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Research results profiled on Farming Today on Radio 4
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2022
URL https://www.vinescapes.com/vineyard-establishment/bbc-4-wine-in-a-changing-climate/
 
Description Research results featured on the BBC's Countryfile TV programme. 
Form Of Engagement Activity A broadcast e.g. TV/radio/film/podcast (other than news/press)
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Research also featured on the BBC's Countryfile TV programme.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2022
URL https://www.vinescapes.com/vineyard-establishment/vinescapes-features-on-bbc-countryfile/
 
Description The project was featured in the latest issue of Plant Earth 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Other audiences
Results and Impact The project was featured in the latest issue of Plant Earth to highlight the topic of research and emerging findings.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2020
URL https://nerc.ukri.org/planetearth/stories/1945/
 
Description We have developed a range of other written communication tools to share preliminary research findings with wine sector actors 
Form Of Engagement Activity Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact We have developed a range of other written communication tools to share preliminary research findings with wine sector actors, raise interest in our research and communicate our activities with sector-specific, as well as academic audiences. These include:
- a dedicated Climate Resilience in the UK Wine Sector (CREWS-UK) project webpage, hosted on the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment (LSE) website;
- A project flyer, also hosted on the project website and disseminated directly to growers in email communication to support participant recruitment;
- A written introduction to our project in the WineGB, the national grape growers and wine makers association, newsletter.
These communication products have provided online visibility to our work, allowed us to communicate our research goals and preliminary finding and problem framings and receive feedback from audiences. As one outcome of this, our team was approached by The Guardian newspaper to provide guidance on an article they were writing on climate change and viticulture. The contents of these communications has also been discussed with grape growers and wine producers during one on one engagements, which has generated additional interest in the research results. And the project flyer has been used to generate discussion and build relationships in person at WineGB events.
These communication products have provided online visibility to our work, allowed us to communicate our research goals and preliminary finding and problem framings and receive feedback and enquiries from a range of audiences including sector actors and journalists.
The contents of these communications has also been discussed with grape growers and wine producers during one on one engagements, which has generated additional interest in the research results and supported the development of conducive relationships, to support research into use and communication of wider research project findings.
These products have also been used to recruit participants, including at a WineGB annual general meeting, and to spark discussion with these audiences.
As of March 10th 2020 the project landing page had 577 page views and the project flyer PDF downloaded 68 times.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
URL http://www.lse.ac.uk/GranthamInstitute/resilient-wine/