Landslide Mitigation Informatics (LIMIT): Effective decision-making for complex landslide geohazards.

Landslides or the threat of landslides can cause significant economic disruption and pose a risk to life. Relatively small events can affect wide areas, particularly where the primary road network is sparse and there is limited scope for rerouting and diversion. Rainfall triggers the majority of landslides in the U.K. and national level 24-hr forecasts exist (for emergency response agencies), but there is uncertainty surrounding what combination(s) of duration and intensity trigger slope failures on a site specific level and why similar events do not always lead to the same event/no-event outcome. These knowledge gaps are critical where decisions must actively be made to warn users of (or close) linear infrastructure such as roads and rail in order to saves lives and costs. This lack of specificity, combined with the high costs of traditionally instrumenting known 'at risk' locations, hinders effective decision-making for key authorities and their partners. As a result many essential components of the environment are not monitored in advance, or on a wide-scale / high-resolution (spatial and temporal) basis. LIMIT will make use of and develop the next generation of low-cost and low-power integrated network (and networks of networks) sensors combined with edge processing and multi-threshold trigger based streaming of key data in near real-time to allow decisions underpinned by advanced theories of failure mechanics. The result is low cost, wide coverage provision of data that analyses the state of the environment and forecasts future behaviour at higher spatial and temporal resolutions than previously possible, integrated into a seamless 'data chain' from site to decision-makers. Data and key derivations based on fundamental process science are automatically ingested/shared into a newly constructed digital environment via an intelligent hierarchical platform. The outputs are fit for national data sets and modelling; policy makers deciding on sensor networks for monitoring evolving risk due to long-term environmental changes; operational decision-makers tasked with real-time management of acute threats to life; right though to data provision and two-way engagement with the individuals at risk. Innovative low-cost, in situ near real-time data streaming/processing sensors resiliently linked to an integrated portal with automated reporting offers a viable and transformative solution to end-user challenges.

The LIMIT feasibility study will generate new field validated intelligent monitoring informatics, underpinned by advanced theories of failure mechanics, to provide critical data on the increasing likelihood and then the occurrence of slope failures in real-time.

WP3 output white paper will be used by the Scottish Government and Transport Scotland (TS), and their operating companies / contractors to review the acute response and long-term monitoring strategy for hazardous slopes effecting trunk-road infrastructure in Scotland. The Geotechnical Manager for TS is the primary user, who is responsible for advising TS / Scottish Government and directing the operating company's landslide response. Improved planning and decision making will be evidence-based via a business case and the outputs of WP1-WP3 on the required investment in monitoring partnered to infrastructure works to deliver processed data in real and near real-time.

WP1-WP3 will be used throughout the 12 month project by TS and their operating companies to respond to detected landslides, and the increased threat of landslides using our new and integrated sensors and processing. This will be used in the deployment of additional monitoring / staff resources.

Short-term impact will be measured and evidenced by appropriate responses of both TS and the operating company to detected events or quiescence in assumed unstable areas using the newly constructed digital environment. We anticipate a dramatic reduction in false alarms (warnings activated but no landslides occurring) and far more proactive investigations of areas of concern as we implement our monitoring approach, responsively document events, and refine the protocols for follow up monitoring after an 'event'.

Medium-term to long-term impact and Partner benefits can be measured with the acceptance of monitoring recommendations as part of TS policy, and, follow-on monitoring contracts and implementations to third parties, the operating companies, or Universities. In addition journey delays and their economic impacts can be evaluated against former best practice decision making chains.

Although we do not directly engage with the final end-users, the general public, at this feasibility and validation stage they will be directly impacted through decreased risk. In the short-term increased knowledge of areas of concern may actually trigger more road closure days and use of the diversion route, but, this potentially negative impact has to be viewed against the overall lowering of individual risk and long-term improvements in the reliability and effectiveness of mitigation measures.