Consequences of Arctic Warming for European Climate and Extreme Weather
Lead Research Organisation:
UNIVERSITY OF EXETER
Department Name: Mathematics
Abstract
The Arctic region is undergoing dramatic changes, in the atmosphere, ocean, ice and on land. The Arctic lower atmosphere is warming at more than twice the rate of the global average, the Arctic sea ice and Greenland Ice Sheet melt have accelerated in the past 30 years. Notable observed changes in the ocean include the freshening of the Beaufort Gyre, and 'Atlantification' of the Barents Sea and of the Eastern Arctic Ocean. Such profound environmental change is likely to have implications across the globe - it is often said, "What happens in the Arctic doesn't stay in the Arctic". Past work has indicated that Arctic amplification can, in principle, affect European climate and extreme weather, but a clear picture of how and why is currently lacking. The 2019 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Oceans and Cryosphere concluded "changes in Arctic sea ice have the potential to influence midlatitude weather, but there is low confidence in the detection of this influence for specific weather types".
ArctiCONNECT brings together experts in climate dynamics, polar and subpolar oceanography, and extreme weather, in order to transform understanding of the effects of accelerating Arctic warming on European climate and extreme weather, through an innovative and integrative program of research bridging theory, models of varying complexity, and observations. It will (i) uncover the atmospheric and oceanic mechanisms of Arctic influence on Europe; (ii) determine the ability of state-of-the-art climate models to simulate realistic Arctic-to-Europe teleconnections; and (iii) quantify and understand the contribution of Arctic warming to projected changes in European weather extremes and to the hazards posed to society.
ArctiCONNECT brings together experts in climate dynamics, polar and subpolar oceanography, and extreme weather, in order to transform understanding of the effects of accelerating Arctic warming on European climate and extreme weather, through an innovative and integrative program of research bridging theory, models of varying complexity, and observations. It will (i) uncover the atmospheric and oceanic mechanisms of Arctic influence on Europe; (ii) determine the ability of state-of-the-art climate models to simulate realistic Arctic-to-Europe teleconnections; and (iii) quantify and understand the contribution of Arctic warming to projected changes in European weather extremes and to the hazards posed to society.
Organisations
Publications
Cai Z
(2024)
Assessing Arctic wetting: Performances of CMIP6 models and projections of precipitation changes
in Atmospheric Research
Cottrell F
(2024)
Signal-to-noise errors in free-running atmospheric simulations and their dependence on model resolution
in Atmospheric Science Letters
Zhang R
(2022)
Arctic and Pacific Ocean Conditions Were Favorable for Cold Extremes over Eurasia and North America during Winter 2020/21
in Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
Delhaye S
(2023)
Dominant role of early winter Barents-Kara sea ice extent anomalies in subsequent atmospheric circulation changes in CMIP6 models
in Climate Dynamics
Cornish SB
(2023)
Impact of sea ice transport on Beaufort Gyre liquid freshwater content.
in Climate dynamics
Lewis N
(2024)
The Response of Surface Temperature Persistence to Arctic Sea-Ice Loss
in Geophysical Research Letters
Lo Y
(2023)
Changes in Winter Temperature Extremes From Future Arctic Sea-Ice Loss and Ocean Warming
in Geophysical Research Letters
Zhang R
(2021)
Diverse Eurasian Winter Temperature Responses to Barents-Kara Sea Ice Anomalies of Different Magnitudes and Seasonality
in Geophysical Research Letters
McCrystall M
(2021)
Arctic Winter Temperature Variations Correlated With ENSO Are Dependent on Coincidental Sea Ice Changes
in Geophysical Research Letters
Geen R
(2023)
An Explanation for the Metric Dependence of the Midlatitude Jet-Waviness Change in Response to Polar Warming
in Geophysical Research Letters
Title | Lagrangian trajectory dataset for AMOC lower limb |
Description | These Lagrangian trajectory files were generated by TRACMASS, a Lagrangian parcel tracing algorithm, using data from a high-resolution (1/12o) ocean sea-ice hindcast. Two set of experiments were performed to trace the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) lower limb; 1) Initiated only southward trajectories across the Fram Strait (fs) that corresponds to Arctic outflow and 2) traced only northward trajectories across the easten Subpolar North Atlantic (SPNA) Section which corresponds to Atlantic inflow and associated with the North Atlantic Current (nac). _ini.csv = store positions and properties of trajectories at the starting location _run.csv = store positions and properties of trajectories during the trajectory simulation _out.csv = store positions and properties of trajectories at the ending location _rerun.csv = This file is used to select trajectories that have reached a particular ending section. Column 2 in this file contain kill zone flag. Flag 1 means trajectories reaching the surface, 2 indicates trajectories reaching the Fram Strait , 3 means trajectories reaching the eastern SPNA section and finally 4 illustrate trajectories aprroaching the Barents Sea. TRACMASS documentation is available at https://www.tracmass.org/docs.html |
Type Of Material | Database/Collection of data |
Year Produced | 2023 |
Provided To Others? | Yes |
URL | https://zenodo.org/doi/10.5281/zenodo.7924419 |