GLobal Insect Threat-Response Synthesis (GLiTRS): a comprehensive and predictive assessment of the pattern and consequences of insect declines
Lead Research Organisation:
University College London
Department Name: Genetics Evolution and Environment
Abstract
With increasing recognition of the importance of insects, there are growing concerns that insect biodiversity has declined globally, with serious consequences for ecosystem function and services. Yet, gaps in knowledge limit progress in understanding the magnitude and direction of change. Information about insect trends is fragmented, and time-series data are restricted and unrepresentative, both taxonomically and spatially. Moreover, causal links between insect trends and anthropogenic pressures are not well-established. It is, therefore, difficult to evaluate stories about "insectageddon", to understand the ecosystem consequences, to devise mitigation strategies, or predict future trends.
To address the shortfalls, we will bring together diverse sources of information, such as meta-analyses, correlative relationships and expert judgement. GLiTRS will collate these diverse lines of evidence on how insect biodiversity has changed in response to anthropogenic pressures, how responses vary according to functional traits, over space, and across biodiversity metrics (e.g. species abundance, occupancy, richness and biomass), and how insect trends drive further changes (e.g. mediated by interaction networks).
We will integrate these lines of evidence into a Threat-Response model describing trends in insect biodiversity across the globe. The model will be represented in the form of a series of probabilistic statements (a Bayesian belief network) describing relationships between insect biodiversity and anthropogenic pressures.
By challenging this "Threat-Response model" to predict trends for taxa and places where high-quality time series data exist, we will identify insect groups and regions for which indirect data sources are a) sufficient for predicting recent trends, b) inadequate, or c) too uncertain. Knowledge about the predictability of threat-response relationships will allow projections - with uncertainty estimates - of how insect biodiversity has changed globally, across all major taxa, functional groups and biomes.
This global perspective on recent trends will provide the basis for an exploration of the consequences of insect decline for a range of ecosystem functions and services, as well as how biodiversity and ecosystem properties might be affected by plausible scenarios of future environmental change.
GLiTRS is an ambitious and innovative research program: two features are particularly ground-breaking. First, the collation of multiple forms of evidence will permit a truly global perspective on insect declines that is unachievable using conventional approaches. Second, by validating "prior knowledge" (from evidence synthesis) with recent trends, we will assess the degree to which insect declines are predictable, and at what scales.
To address the shortfalls, we will bring together diverse sources of information, such as meta-analyses, correlative relationships and expert judgement. GLiTRS will collate these diverse lines of evidence on how insect biodiversity has changed in response to anthropogenic pressures, how responses vary according to functional traits, over space, and across biodiversity metrics (e.g. species abundance, occupancy, richness and biomass), and how insect trends drive further changes (e.g. mediated by interaction networks).
We will integrate these lines of evidence into a Threat-Response model describing trends in insect biodiversity across the globe. The model will be represented in the form of a series of probabilistic statements (a Bayesian belief network) describing relationships between insect biodiversity and anthropogenic pressures.
By challenging this "Threat-Response model" to predict trends for taxa and places where high-quality time series data exist, we will identify insect groups and regions for which indirect data sources are a) sufficient for predicting recent trends, b) inadequate, or c) too uncertain. Knowledge about the predictability of threat-response relationships will allow projections - with uncertainty estimates - of how insect biodiversity has changed globally, across all major taxa, functional groups and biomes.
This global perspective on recent trends will provide the basis for an exploration of the consequences of insect decline for a range of ecosystem functions and services, as well as how biodiversity and ecosystem properties might be affected by plausible scenarios of future environmental change.
GLiTRS is an ambitious and innovative research program: two features are particularly ground-breaking. First, the collation of multiple forms of evidence will permit a truly global perspective on insect declines that is unachievable using conventional approaches. Second, by validating "prior knowledge" (from evidence synthesis) with recent trends, we will assess the degree to which insect declines are predictable, and at what scales.
Publications

Blüthgen N
(2023)
Insect declines in the Anthropocene
in Nature Reviews Earth & Environment

Bowler D
(2023)
Idiosyncratic trends of woodland invertebrate biodiversity in Britain over 45 years
in Insect Conservation and Diversity

Luke SH
(2023)
Grand challenges in entomology: Priorities for action in the coming decades.
in Insect conservation and diversity

Millard J
(2023)
Key tropical crops at risk from pollinator loss due to climate change and land use.
in Science advances

Outhwaite C
(2022)
Agriculture and climate change are reshaping insect biodiversity worldwide
in Nature

Roy H
(2024)
The global reach of citizen science for monitoring insects
in One Earth

Sarah H. Luke
(2023)
Grand challenges in entomology: Priorities for action in the coming decades

Sarah H. Luke
(2023)
Grand challenges in entomology: Priorities for action in the coming decades
Description | Charlie Outhwaite and Tim Newbold published a paper in Nature on the impacts on insect biodiversity change of interactions between land use and climate change. This paper showed that insect abundance and richness was lower in areas of high-intensity land use and climate warming. This paper was featured in many news outlets and Charlie carried out a number of interviews for national and international audiences (e.g., BBC News, iNews, NBC News, The Associated Press, New Scientist), including written media and radio. Tim and Charlie also wrote an article about this paper for The Conversation, which has been read over 120,000 times. Research taking this work forward, to assess differing responses between insect Orders, is well underway. It shows that responses are variable across insect Orders and that the global average is not necessarily representative of all insect groups. We plan to submit this work to Ecology Letters very soon. A perspective piece written by the GLiTRS group that is being co-led by Charlie Outhwaite is soon to be submitted to Science. This highlights the challenges in assessing insect biodiversity change and the need to combine multiple forms of evidence. Work has started on the spatial analyses of the impacts of key threats on insect biodiversity for Work Package 2. The threats to be focussed on have been determined via an initial expert elicitation process. Global threat maps have been collated to investigate impacts on insect biodiversity. The first paper focusing on Hymenoptera is well underway with a second paper on a broader set of insect Orders in preparation. Alongside these projects, Charlie and Tim have contributed to the work of the wider GLiTRS project. Within WP2, this includes participation in the running of the expert elicitation process and contributing to the meta-analytical portion of the work package. A preregistration document has been published presenting the meta-analytical protocol to be used for the project. Charlie has supervised a UCL masters student who is working on a meta-analysis assessing the impacts of droughts on Odonata as part of the GLiTRS project and co-supervised an Imperial University masters student who is working on a spatial analysis of the impact of droughts and extreme temperatures on insects. A team of UCL undergraduates have also been working with GLiTRs managed by Charlie on a range of meta-analyses. Most recently, Charlie was asked to contribute to a paper published in Nature Reviews Earth & Environment titled "Insect declines in the Anthropocene" which brought together a number of experts on insect biodiversity change. |
Exploitation Route | Research is still ongoing, so not totally clear what the outcomes will be yet. However, Charlie Outhwaite has developed ideas related to this project for a NERC Independent Research Fellowship submission. |
Sectors | Environment |
URL | https://glitrs.ceh.ac.uk/ |
Description | Educational impact - The GLiTRS team have been engaging with UCL students through various independent research projects, group projects and summer studentships. This has included both undergraduate and masters-level students. This has provided students with an opportunity to learn more about the world of insects biodiversity and the challenges associated with this area of research. A number of students have gone on to undertake other projects with an insect focus since working with the team. Public engagement - Charlie Outhwaite has given a talk on the work of the GLiTRS project at the Royal Entomological Society annual meeting (ENTO23, Sept 2023) and at the UK Moth Recorders Meeting (Jan 2024). These meetings have included members of the public interested in insect ecology. The talks have highlighted the important role of volunteers and the key gaps in insect research. |
First Year Of Impact | 2023 |
Sector | Education,Environment |
Impact Types | Societal |
Title | A global dataset of likely animal pollinators |
Description | First citable Zenodo release |
Type Of Material | Database/Collection of data |
Year Produced | 2022 |
Provided To Others? | Yes |
Impact | No known impact, as yet |
URL | https://zenodo.org/record/7385950 |
Description | Freshwater ecologists working group |
Organisation | UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology |
Country | United Kingdom |
Sector | Public |
PI Contribution | Charlie Outhwaite has contributed to a working group sessions and is contributing to writing a paper. |
Collaborator Contribution | UK CEH have brought together freshwater ecologists from across the UK to discuss and write a paper on the status of freshwater invertebrates. |
Impact | We are drafting a commentary paper on the status of UK freshwater invertebrates. |
Start Year | 2023 |
Description | Land use - Climate change interactions working group |
Organisation | Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences |
Country | Sweden |
Sector | Academic/University |
PI Contribution | Tim Newbold and Charlie Outhwaite have been invited to contribute to this working group focussing on land use and climate change interactions. So far, the working group has met in January 2024 and has started drafting a perspective paper. |
Collaborator Contribution | Organised a workshop bringing together researchers focussed on land use - climate change interactions. Leading the writing of a paper. |
Impact | Paper being drafted |
Start Year | 2024 |
Description | Article in The Conversation |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A magazine, newsletter or online publication |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | Tim Newbold and Charlie Outhwaite wrote an article for The Conversation. In one year since publication it has had 117,453 reads. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
Description | Article written - Antenna |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A magazine, newsletter or online publication |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | Charlie Outhwaite wrote a piece for the Antenna magazine run by the Royal Entomological Society. This was about the results in the Nature paper. It was published in November 2022. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
Description | BBC television interview on bumblebees |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Media (as a channel to the public) |
Results and Impact | Tim Newbold was interviewed by the BBC on his paper about climate change and bumblebees. This interview was broadcast on the BBC One lunch-time news. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2020 |
Description | BES Macroecology SIG annual meeting - presentation |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Other audiences |
Results and Impact | Presented the results from the work on order level responses to climate and land use interactions. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
Description | British Ecological Society Annual Meeting - presentation |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Other audiences |
Results and Impact | Presentation on latest work in the GLiTRS project. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
Description | British Ecological Society conference talk |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Postgraduate students |
Results and Impact | 12-minute conference talk on interacting effects of climate change and land use on bumblebees |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
Description | Conversation article - climate change and bumblebee declines |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A magazine, newsletter or online publication |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | I contributed to an article in The Conversation on climate change and bumblebee declines. The article has been read by more than 20,000 people worldwide. Members of the public have been in touch with myself and the other authors for further information. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2020 |
URL | https://theconversation.com/covid-19-shutdowns-will-give-wildlife-only-short-term-relief-from-climat... |
Description | ECCB presentation |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Other audiences |
Results and Impact | Presentation on the latest results of the project. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
Description | ENTO2021, Annual meeting of the Royal Entomological Society |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | Invited speaker at ENTO2021 presenting work from BIOTA/GLiTRS projects. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
Description | ENTO23 |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Postgraduate students |
Results and Impact | Charlie was invited to be a keynote speaker at the Royal Entomological Society annual meeting. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2023 |
Description | Ecological Society of America talk |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Postgraduate students |
Results and Impact | A 12-minute conference talk on the impacts of habitat loss and climate change on insect biodiversity |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
Description | Economist podcast |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A broadcast e.g. TV/radio/film/podcast (other than news/press) |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | I was interviewed for The Economist's Babbage podcast, about the use of biodiversity modelling. I am not aware of any outcomes arising directly from my appearance on the podcast |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
URL | https://www.economist.com/podcasts/2021/06/22/can-technology-help-solve-the-biodiversity-crisis |
Description | Environmental Research Conference 2021 |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | Invited speaker at the Environmental Research 2021 virtual conference. Presented work from the BIOTA/GLiTRS projects. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
Description | Living Planet Report |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A magazine, newsletter or online publication |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
Results and Impact | Tim Newbold and two members of his team contributed two sections to the Living Planet Report 2020: one on the drivers of biodiversity loss on land, and one on climate change impacts on biodiversity. The report received very widespread reporting in the media. I am not aware of any specific impacts yet. This report is estimated to have a reach of around 100 million, including the public, policymakers and the private sector. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2020 |
URL | https://livingplanet.panda.org/en-gb/ |
Description | Media enquiries/press coverage of paper on climate change and bumblebee declines |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Media (as a channel to the public) |
Results and Impact | I was interviewed by journalists at The Times, The Telegraph, i, The Daily Mail, BBC News, The Independent, and New Scientist. The paper was ultimately covered in all of these outlets and many others, having an enormous international reach. I have received many emails since from members of the public enquiring further about the work. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2020 |
URL | https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-51375600 |
Description | Media interview regarding Nature paper |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | A number of interviews were given by Charlie Outhwaite after the publication of the paper in Nature. This included national and international outlets. Included interviews for written pieces and also for radio. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
Description | Online Schools Presentation |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Regional |
Primary Audience | Schools |
Results and Impact | Tim Newbold gave an online presentation to several schools through the STEM Ambassadors |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
URL | https://www.stem.org.uk/news-and-views/news/stem-ambassadors-live |
Description | Royal Society - land-use decisions public workshop |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Regional |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | Tim was one of three experts at a workshop on UK land-use decisions. The workshop was attended by around 20 members of the public from the East of England. When we discussed the environmental and biodiversity issues around land-use decisions (both in the UK and abroad), participants expressed a change of opinion about the priorities for land-use decisions toward more environmental concerns. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2020 |
Description | Savage Minds podcast |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A broadcast e.g. TV/radio/film/podcast (other than news/press) |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | I was interviewed for the Savage Minds podcast, about my work on biodiversity and agriculture interactions. I don't know of any outcomes as yet that have followed directly from my appearance on this podcast |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
URL | https://savageminds.substack.com/p/tim-newbold |
Description | TRT World interview on bumblebees |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Media (as a channel to the public) |
Results and Impact | Tim Newbold gave a television interview about his paper on climate change and bumblebees on the international television network TRT World. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2020 |
Description | Talk at CEE event |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Regional |
Primary Audience | Postgraduate students |
Results and Impact | Charlie gave a presentation on recent research at the Centre for Evolution and Environment annual meeting. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2023 |
Description | UCL Lunch-hour lecture |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Regional |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | Tim Newbold gave a public UCL Lunch-hour lecture on his work on bumblebees. The talk was well attended and the audience very engaged. The talk is now available on the UCL Lunch-hour lectures YouTube channel. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2020 |
URL | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QdWQXSBW2JY |
Description | UK Moth Recorders Meeting |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | Charlie was invited to be a speaker at the UK Moth Recorders Meeting. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2023 |