Knowledge Exchange Fellowship: Forecast-based Action for Conservation (ForCon)
Lead Research Organisation:
University of Reading
Department Name: Meteorology
Abstract
Wildlife is threatened by climate change. One way in which climate change affects wildlife is by increasing the frequency of extreme weather events including drought, heat waves and storms. These weather events can cause wildlife losses which are detrimental for the proper functioning of our planet.
Fortunately, many extreme weather events can now be predicted by weather forecasts. Weather forecasts can provide early warnings of upcoming extreme events, allowing people to prepare before the event occurs. An example might be: if a weather forecast identifies an incoming hurricane, homeowners can prepare for the hurricane by boarding windows and evacuating. These actions, taken before the hurricane hits, will reduce damage to buildings and will save lives.
In a similar way, preparatory actions can be taken to lessen the effects of extreme weather on wildlife, but currently, this approach is not routinely used by wildlife conservation organisations. Why? It is probably because weather forecasts do not directly predict wildlife losses. Rather, there is a gap between the weather forecasts available and the information wildlife conservation organisations actually need. More regular use of weather forecasts could allow conservation organisations to better prepare for extreme weather and ultimately protect wildlife.
This fellowship aims to address the under use of weather forecasts in wildlife conservation. Specifically, the fellowship will focus on a particular conservation issue, human-elephant conflict (HEC). HEC occurs when elephants eat farmers' crops or kill cattle or people when sharing water sources. Low rainfall, leading to drought, increases the occurrence of HEC.
Working closely with weather forecasters and conservation organisations, the fellowship will adapt weather forecast information so that it is suitable for conservation organisations trying to prevent HEC. In this way, forecasts for low rainfall and drought can provide early warnings of HEC. The fellowship will also seek expert guidance from the Red Cross, who regularly use weather forecasts to plan their humanitarian activities. The Red Cross will help to develop plans outlining conservation actions to be taken based on weather forecasts.
The fellowship will test the use of forecasts for managing HEC and will report the findings to other conservation organisations working to prevent HEC. Fellowship partners will also help in the development of reports to share with international governing conservation bodies. In this way, it is hoped that lessons learnt during the fellowship can be shared so that forecasts can be used by other conservation organisations to protect other wildlife around the world from extreme weather.
Fortunately, many extreme weather events can now be predicted by weather forecasts. Weather forecasts can provide early warnings of upcoming extreme events, allowing people to prepare before the event occurs. An example might be: if a weather forecast identifies an incoming hurricane, homeowners can prepare for the hurricane by boarding windows and evacuating. These actions, taken before the hurricane hits, will reduce damage to buildings and will save lives.
In a similar way, preparatory actions can be taken to lessen the effects of extreme weather on wildlife, but currently, this approach is not routinely used by wildlife conservation organisations. Why? It is probably because weather forecasts do not directly predict wildlife losses. Rather, there is a gap between the weather forecasts available and the information wildlife conservation organisations actually need. More regular use of weather forecasts could allow conservation organisations to better prepare for extreme weather and ultimately protect wildlife.
This fellowship aims to address the under use of weather forecasts in wildlife conservation. Specifically, the fellowship will focus on a particular conservation issue, human-elephant conflict (HEC). HEC occurs when elephants eat farmers' crops or kill cattle or people when sharing water sources. Low rainfall, leading to drought, increases the occurrence of HEC.
Working closely with weather forecasters and conservation organisations, the fellowship will adapt weather forecast information so that it is suitable for conservation organisations trying to prevent HEC. In this way, forecasts for low rainfall and drought can provide early warnings of HEC. The fellowship will also seek expert guidance from the Red Cross, who regularly use weather forecasts to plan their humanitarian activities. The Red Cross will help to develop plans outlining conservation actions to be taken based on weather forecasts.
The fellowship will test the use of forecasts for managing HEC and will report the findings to other conservation organisations working to prevent HEC. Fellowship partners will also help in the development of reports to share with international governing conservation bodies. In this way, it is hoped that lessons learnt during the fellowship can be shared so that forecasts can be used by other conservation organisations to protect other wildlife around the world from extreme weather.
Organisations
- University of Reading (Lead Research Organisation)
- Kenya Meteorological Department (Collaboration)
- National Drought Management Authority (Collaboration)
- International Committee of the Red Cross (Collaboration)
- Save the Elephants (Collaboration)
- ICPAC (Collaboration)
- Amboseli Trust for Elephants (Collaboration)
Publications
Black E
(2023)
Application of TAMSAT-ALERT soil moisture forecasts for planting date decision support in Africa
in Frontiers in Climate
Boult V
(2022)
The Climate Science for Ecological Forecasting symposium
in Weather
Boult VL
(2023)
Forecast-based action for conservation.
in Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology
Garaï ME
(2023)
Identifying the Effects of Social Disruption through Translocation on African Elephants (Loxodonta africana), with Specifics on the Social and Ecological Impacts of Orphaning.
in Animals : an open access journal from MDPI
Description | TAMSAT-ALERT Training - East African Forecasters (October 2022) |
Geographic Reach | Africa |
Policy Influence Type | Influenced training of practitioners or researchers |
Impact | Drought is a major problem for people and wildlife in East Africa. Advances in subseasonal-to-seasonal meteorological forecasting now mean drought can be anticipated. Such early warnings provide a window of opportunity in which early actions, triggered by forecasts, can help to prepare for drought and minimise its impacts. TAMSAT-ALERT provides drought forecasts for key seasons across Africa. By training forecasters in the use of TAMSAT-ALERT software, drought forecasts can be issued nationally across the region, allowing preparatory decision making and action prior to impacts being felt. Such early warnings are of value to the agricultural, humanitarian and wildlife management sectors. |
Description | TAMSAT-ALERT Drought Forecasting Training |
Amount | £7,000 (GBP) |
Organisation | National Centre for Atmospheric Science (NCAS) |
Sector | Charity/Non Profit |
Country | United Kingdom |
Start | 10/2022 |
End | 11/2022 |
Description | Amboseli Elephant Research Project |
Organisation | Amboseli Trust for Elephants |
Country | Kenya |
Sector | Charity/Non Profit |
PI Contribution | Modelling of elephant demographic and movement data; provision of satellite data and calibration with ground-based surveys. ForCon: Provision of drought early warnings. |
Collaborator Contribution | Expertise and intellectual input; facilitated field site visit; access to data and project partners. |
Impact | Two articles published in international journals; one publication currently under review at another international journal; |
Start Year | 2015 |
Description | ICPAC |
Organisation | ICPAC |
Country | Kenya |
Sector | Private |
PI Contribution | Expertise in drought forecasting and forecast-based action. |
Collaborator Contribution | Expertise in operational forecasting and early warning. |
Impact | Publications: Boult, V.L., Black, E., Saado Abdillahi, H., Bailey, M., Harris, C., Kilavi, M., Kniveton, D., MacLeod, D., Mwangi, E., Otieno, G., Rees, E., Rowhani, P., Taylor, O. & Todd, M.C., 2022. Towards drought impact-based forecasting in a multi-hazard context. Climate Risk Management, 35: 100402. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2022.100402 Boult, V.L., Asfaw, D.T., Young, M., Maidment, R., Mwangi, E., Ambani, M., Waruru, S., Otieno, G., Todd, M.C. & Black, E., 2020. Evaluation and validation of TAMSAT-ALERT soil moisture and WRSI for use in drought anticipatory action. Meteorological Applications, 27: e1959. https://doi.org/10.1002/met.1959 |
Start Year | 2019 |
Description | Kenya Meteorological Department |
Organisation | Kenya Meteorological Department |
Country | Kenya |
Sector | Public |
PI Contribution | Expertise in drought forecasting. |
Collaborator Contribution | Expertise in operational forecasting. |
Impact | Publications: Boult, V.L., Black, E., Saado Abdillahi, H., Bailey, M., Harris, C., Kilavi, M., Kniveton, D., MacLeod, D., Mwangi, E., Otieno, G., Rees, E., Rowhani, P., Taylor, O. & Todd, M.C., 2022. Towards drought impact-based forecasting in a multi-hazard context. Climate Risk Management, 35: 100402. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2022.100402 Boult, V.L., Asfaw, D.T., Young, M., Maidment, R., Mwangi, E., Ambani, M., Waruru, S., Otieno, G., Todd, M.C. & Black, E., 2020. Evaluation and validation of TAMSAT-ALERT soil moisture and WRSI for use in drought anticipatory action. Meteorological Applications, 27: e1959. https://doi.org/10.1002/met.1959 |
Start Year | 2019 |
Description | Kenya Red Cross Society |
Organisation | International Committee of the Red Cross |
Department | Kenya Red Cross Society |
Country | Kenya |
Sector | Charity/Non Profit |
PI Contribution | Expertise in drought forecasting. |
Collaborator Contribution | Expertise in forecast-based action and operational humanitarian action. |
Impact | Publications: Boult, V.L., Asfaw, D.T., Young, M., Maidment, R., Mwangi, E., Ambani, M., Waruru, S., Otieno, G., Todd, M.C. & Black, E., 2020. Evaluation and validation of TAMSAT-ALERT soil moisture and WRSI for use in drought anticipatory action. Meteorological Applications, 27: e1959. https://doi.org/10.1002/met.1959 Boult, V.L., Black, E., Saado Abdillahi, H., Bailey, M., Harris, C., Kilavi, M., Kniveton, D., MacLeod, D., Mwangi, E., Otieno, G., Rees, E., Rowhani, P., Taylor, O. & Todd, M.C., 2022. Towards drought impact-based forecasting in a multi-hazard context. Climate Risk Management, 35: 100402. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2022.100402 Impact: Supported development of drought early action protocol to better anticipate and prepare for drought hazards in Kenya. |
Start Year | 2019 |
Description | National Drought Management Authority |
Organisation | National Drought Management Authority |
Country | Kenya |
Sector | Public |
PI Contribution | Expertise and data for drought forecasting. |
Collaborator Contribution | Dissemination channels for drought early warning and expertise in drought management. |
Impact | Publications: Boult, V.L., Black, E., Saado Abdillahi, H., Bailey, M., Harris, C., Kilavi, M., Kniveton, D., MacLeod, D., Mwangi, E., Otieno, G., Rees, E., Rowhani, P., Taylor, O. & Todd, M.C., 2022. Towards drought impact-based forecasting in a multi-hazard context. Climate Risk Management, 35: 100402. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2022.100402 Boult, V.L., Asfaw, D.T., Young, M., Maidment, R., Mwangi, E., Ambani, M., Waruru, S., Otieno, G., Todd, M.C. & Black, E., 2020. Evaluation and validation of TAMSAT-ALERT soil moisture and WRSI for use in drought anticipatory action. Meteorological Applications, 27: e1959. https://doi.org/10.1002/met.1959 Impact: TAMSAT-ALERT drought forecasts now issued monthly through NDMA bulletins. Increased access to forecast data. |
Start Year | 2019 |
Description | Save the Elephants |
Organisation | Save the Elephants |
Country | Kenya |
Sector | Charity/Non Profit |
PI Contribution | Expertise and data related to drought forecasting and forecast-based action. |
Collaborator Contribution | Expertise and data related to elephant conservation. |
Impact | No outputs or outcomes yet. |
Start Year | 2021 |
Title | TAMSAT-ALERT Drought Forecasting API |
Description | The TAMSAT-ALERT Drought Forecasting API provides a simplified way for users to extract TAMSAT-ALERT drought forecasts for their region and season of interest. The Python code is freely available on GitHub, along with extensive training materials, enabling users to access the tool freely and easily. The software itself is designed to be run on a standard laptop and only requires the input of a single line of code, reducing technical and capacity barriers for entry. |
Type Of Technology | Software |
Year Produced | 2021 |
Impact | The TAMSAT-ALERT Drought Forecasting tool has underpinned several training courses on drought forecasting. Individuals from national meteorological services across East Africa were trained on the use of the API in October 2022, meaning TAMSAT-ALERT forecasting capability has now been transferred to Kenya, Ethiopia, Somalia, Sudan, South Sudan and Burundi. Other organisations that have picked up and are using the tool including Madagascar and Ghana's national meteorological services. |
URL | https://github.com/TAMSAT/TAMSAT-ALERT_API |
Description | Children's Christmas Lecture |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Local |
Primary Audience | Schools |
Results and Impact | Roughly 100 people attended the University of Reading's 2021 Children's Christmas lecture: Elephants on the Move. Audiences were much reduced due to COVID but the video has been made freely available on YouTube since. Interactive displays and lecture. Raised awareness of elephant conservation challenges amongst younger audiences. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
URL | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7bZY5l_s5uo |
Description | Wiltshire Wildlife Trust |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Local |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | Talk to around 20 members of the Wiltshire Wildlife Trust on The Future for Elephants in Africa. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |