Global scale impacts of climate change: a multi-sectoral analysis
Lead Research Organisation:
University of Southampton
Department Name: School of Geography
Abstract
Climate policy should be informed by robust and credible information on the impacts of climate change across the global domain; a global perspective also places local and regional impacts in context, and helps identify potential 'hotspots' for further scientific investigation.The project assesses the global-scale impact of climate change using a range of linked impact modules and impact indicators, representing impacts on water resources, flood risk, food production, biodiversity and human health and well-being on land, at the coast, and at sea. The project will synthesise and aggregate across sectors and regions, using a variety of approaches, and allow the identification of the risks of specific impacts occurring at different rates of climate change.The methodology and results of the project also provide a framework for the assessment of the impacts of defined climate policies. First, it allows detailed geographically-explicit assessments of specific climate scenarios or climate policies, using the suite of linked models. Second, it allows the more rapid assessment of a very large number of climate outcomes (based for example on a probabilistic assessment of the climate effects of an emissions policy) using regionalised functions relating climate impact to indices of climate forcing.The project will be undertaken by a consortium of twelve lead partners, all with international reputations in the field of climate impact assessment.
Organisations
Publications
Xu H
(2010)
Hydrological modeling of River Xiangxi using SWAT2005: A comparison of model parameterizations using station and gridded meteorological observations
in Quaternary International
Nicholls RJ
(2011)
Sea-level rise and its possible impacts given a 'beyond 4°C world' in the twenty-first century.
in Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences
Gosling SN
(2010)
Global hydrology modelling and uncertainty: running multiple ensembles with a campus grid.
in Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences
Poppy GM
(2014)
Achieving food and environmental security: new approaches to close the gap.
in Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences
Poppy GM
(2014)
Food security in a perfect storm: using the ecosystem services framework to increase understanding.
in Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences
Arnell N
(2013)
A global assessment of the effects of climate policy on the impacts of climate change
in Nature Climate Change
Yeh P
(2011)
Multimodel Estimate of the Global Terrestrial Water Balance: Setup and First Results
in Journal of Hydrometeorology
Arnell N
(2013)
The impacts of climate change on river flow regimes at the global scale
in Journal of Hydrology
Kingston D
(2011)
Uncertainty in climate change projections of discharge for the Mekong River Basin
in Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
Thorne R
(2011)
Uncertainty in the impacts of projected climate change on the hydrology of a subarctic environment: Liard River Basin
in Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
Kingston D
(2010)
Sources of uncertainty in climate change impacts on river discharge and groundwater in a headwater catchment of the Upper Nile Basin, Uganda
in Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
Arnell N
(2011)
Uncertainty in the relationship between climate forcing and hydrological response in UK catchments
in Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
Xu H
(2011)
Quantifying uncertainty in the impacts of climate change on river discharge in sub-catchments of the Yangtze and Yellow River Basins, China
in Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
Nóbrega M
(2011)
Uncertainty in climate change impacts on water resources in the Rio Grande Basin, Brazil
in Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
Singh C
(2010)
Modelling the impact of prescribed global warming on runoff from headwater catchments of the Irrawaddy River and their implications for the water level regime of Loktak Lake, northeast India
in Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
Gosling S
(2011)
A comparative analysis of projected impacts of climate change on river runoff from global and catchment-scale hydrological models
in Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
Todd M
(2011)
Uncertainty in climate change impacts on basin-scale freshwater resources - preface to the special issue: the QUEST-GSI methodology and synthesis of results
in Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
Hughes D
(2011)
Uncertainty in water resources availability in the Okavango River basin as a result of climate change
in Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
Gosling S
(2011)
Simulating current global river runoff with a global hydrological model: model revisions, validation, and sensitivity analysis
in Hydrological Processes
Arnell N
(2011)
The implications of climate policy for the impacts of climate change on global water resources
in Global Environmental Change
Kingston D
(2009)
Uncertainty in the estimation of potential evapotranspiration under climate change
in Geophysical Research Letters
Simelton E
(2009)
Typologies of crop-drought vulnerability: an empirical analysis of the socio-economic factors that influence the sensitivity and resilience to drought of three major food crops in China (1961-2001)
in Environmental Science & Policy
Lloyd SJ
(2011)
Climate change, crop yields, and undernutrition: development of a model to quantify the impact of climate scenarios on child undernutrition.
in Environmental health perspectives
Fraser E
(2011)
Assessing Vulnerability to Climate Change in Dryland Livelihood Systems: Conceptual Challenges and Interdisciplinary Solutions
in Ecology and Society
Hagemann S
(2013)
Climate change impact on available water resources obtained using multiple global climate and hydrology models
in Earth System Dynamics
Fraser E
(2008)
Quantifying socioeconomic characteristics of drought-sensitive regions: Evidence from Chinese provincial agricultural data
in Comptes Rendus Geoscience
Arnell N
(2014)
The impacts of climate change on river flood risk at the global scale
in Climatic Change
Dawson T
(2014)
Modelling impacts of climate change on global food security
in Climatic Change
Gosling S
(2013)
A global assessment of the impact of climate change on water scarcity
in Climatic Change
Arnell N
(2016)
The global-scale impacts of climate change: the QUEST-GSI project
in Climatic Change
Arnell N
(2014)
Global-scale climate impact functions: the relationship between climate forcing and impact
in Climatic Change
Brown S
(2013)
Spatial variations of sea-level rise and impacts: An application of DIVA
in Climatic Change
Gottschalk P
(2012)
How will organic carbon stocks in mineral soils evolve under future climate? Global projections using RothC for a range of climate change scenarios
in Biogeosciences
Fraser E
(2013)
"Vulnerability hotspots": Integrating socio-economic and hydrological models to identify where cereal production may decline in the future due to climate change induced drought
in Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
Osborne T
(2013)
Variation in the global-scale impacts of climate change on crop productivity due to climate model uncertainty and adaptation
in Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
| Description | Influence on UK climate policy negotiators |
| Geographic Reach | Multiple continents/international |
| Policy Influence Type | Citation in other policy documents |
| Impact | The paper (Arnell et al., 2013) has been used by DECC to support its position on climate change temperature targets. The paper describes the impacts avoided by different climate change pathways, and was produced during the DECC-funded AVOID project which built upon QUEST-GSI. Subsequent research based on QUEST-GSI has been used by DECC to inform its position during the 2015 COP21 Paris climate negotiations. |
| URL | http://www.avoid.uk.net/ |
| Description | AVOID |
| Amount | £800,000 (GBP) |
| Organisation | Department of Energy and Climate Change |
| Sector | Public |
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Start | 03/2009 |
| End | 03/2013 |
| Description | AVOID2 |
| Amount | £1,450,000 (GBP) |
| Organisation | Department of Energy and Climate Change |
| Sector | Public |
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Start | 03/2014 |
| End | 03/2016 |
| Description | Impacts of climate change |
| Amount | £31,500 (GBP) |
| Organisation | Committee on Climate Change (CCC) |
| Sector | Charity/Non Profit |
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Start | 03/2015 |
| End | 06/2015 |
| Title | QUEST-GSI global impacts |
| Description | The QUEST-GSI project produced estimates of the impacts of climate change across a range of metrics at gridded (0.5x0.5o) and regional scales. The gridded data are available through BADC, and the regional data are provided as Supplementary Material in published papers. |
| Type Of Material | Database/Collection of data |
| Year Produced | 2014 |
| Provided To Others? | Yes |
| Impact | None yet |
| URL | http://badc.nerc.ac.uk |
| Description | Groundwater, Climate Change & Adaptation |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
| Results and Impact | Lead presentation at a side event at COP15 in Copenhagen n/a |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2009 |