RAPID-RAPIT
Lead Research Organisation:
University of Reading
Department Name: Meteorology
Abstract
North west Europe has a relatively mild climate in part because of heat pulled north through the Atlantic by the overturning. There is a risk that global warming will cause this circulation to rapidly decrease with consequences involving not only colder winters for Europe but also changes in sea level and precipitation. This project will carry out a risk assessment of rapid changes of the Atlantic overturning. We will use two models of the climate system, HADCM3, the Hadley Centre model used in the IPCC AR4, and CHIME, a global climate model developed at the National Oceanography Centre, Southampton. This has the same atmospheric model as HADCM3 but has a very different structure to the ocean component. Making use of the resources of climateprediction.net we will run a large ensemble of both models to assess the uncertainties in the system. We will then use modern Bayesian statistical techniques to combine model output, data and expert opinion in our risk assessment. The utility of the data from the RAPID-WATCH arrays is an important aim of the project.
Publications
Woollings T
(2012)
On the role of the ocean in projected atmospheric stability changes in the Atlantic polar low region
in Geophysical Research Letters
Williamson D
(2013)
History matching for exploring and reducing climate model parameter space using observations and a large perturbed physics ensemble
in Climate Dynamics
Jackson L
(2015)
Global and European climate impacts of a slowdown of the AMOC in a high resolution GCM
in Climate Dynamics
Hawkins E
(2011)
Bistability of the Atlantic overturning circulation in a global climate model and links to ocean freshwater transport BISTABILITY OF THE ATLANTIC MOC
in Geophysical Research Letters
Allison L
(2014)
An event-based approach to understanding decadal fluctuations in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation
in Climate Dynamics
| Description | This project is investigating the impacts of changes in ocean circulation in the North Atlantic on regional climate. One focus has been on examining natural rapid changes in the ocean which occur in climate models, to see if different models agree on the impact of these events on climate. The general result is that these events do have a detectable influence on climate, but there is still disagreement between models which limits the predictability of these impacts in the real world. Another piece of work has further highlighted the importance of changes in this ocean circulation in response to climate change. Small scale polar storms are projected to become less common in the future, and our work shows that this change is driven by the changes in the ocean circulation in climate models. |
| Exploitation Route | There is further potential for these results to inform the planning and adaptation communities, particularly with regard to coastal planning and shipping (re polar storms). Work from this project has contributed to DECC/DEFRA assessments of the importance of ocean circulation and its monitoring. |
| Sectors | Environment |
| Description | RAPID-WATCH programme reviews |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Policy Influence Type | Contribution to a national consultation/review |
| Description | Collaboration between climate scientists and statisticians |
| Organisation | Durham University |
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Sector | Academic/University |
| PI Contribution | Provided input for the paper led by WP3 (Williamson et al 2013) on history matching for exploring and reducing climate model parameter space. |
| Start Year | 2012 |
| Description | Fluids lab for school children |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | Regional |
| Primary Audience | Schools |
| Results and Impact | Dr Allison ran a fluids lab activity for visiting groups of 14-16 year-old school pupils. This involved practical experiments to introduce the students to density currents and rotating convection, and discussing real-world examples in the atmosphere and ocean. The contribution was made to this annual event over three successive years. Positive feedback from the schools such that the programme was repeated in following years. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2010,2011,2012 |
| Description | Online discussions |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A magazine, newsletter or online publication |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
| Results and Impact | This project involved members of the public running climate model simulations on their computers in the climate prediction.net project. Members of the team contributed to online discussions with members of the public to inform them of the science underlying the experiments. This engagement activity motivated members of the public to participate in the climate prediction.net online climate experiments. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2010,2011,2012 |
| Description | Science highlights on NCAS website |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A magazine, newsletter or online publication |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Media (as a channel to the public) |
| Results and Impact | Dr Allison developed a template for NCAS science highlights for a public audience. She wrote one of these highlights about her work on climate model experiments investigating the potential for large, irreversible changes in ocean circulation. These are available on the public engagement part of the NCAS website. She also helped to develop the content for the climate aspects of the NCAS public engagement web pages. N/a |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2012 |