Influence of energetic particle precipitation and meteorology on NOx and ozone variability in the Arctic middle atmosphere

Predicting future climate change is intimately linked to understanding what is happening to the climate system in the present, and in the recent past. Studies in the Polar Regions provide vital clues in our understanding of global climate, and early indications of changes arising from the coupling of natural processes, such as variability in the amount of energy from the Sun reaching the Earth, and man-made factors. For example, the polar winter provides the extreme cold, dark conditions in the atmosphere which, combined with chemicals released from man-made chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) gases, has led to destruction of the ozone layer 18-25 km above the ground every spring-time since the 1980's. The Southern hemisphere ozone 'hole' is now linked to observed changes in surface temperature and sea-ice across Antarctica, decreased uptake of carbon dioxide by the Southern Ocean, and perturbations to the atmospheric circulation that can affect weather patterns as far away as the Northern hemisphere. Ozone loss over the Arctic is generally lower and much more variable, but there is increasing evidence that different meteorology in this region can lead to interactions between regions of the atmosphere from the ground to over 100 km up, on the edge of space. Recovery of the ozone layer is expected now that CFC's are banned by international protocols, but this may be delayed by other greenhouse gases we are releasing into the atmosphere and natural processes such as changes in the Sun's output. Although the total amount of energy as sunlight changes by a small amount (~0.1%) over the typical 11-year solar cycle, the energetic particles - electrons and protons - streaming from the Sun changes dramatically on timescales from hours to years. These particles are guided by the Earth's magnetic field and can enter the upper atmosphere, most intensely over the Polar Regions. A visible effect is the aurora, but the particles can significantly modify the chemistry of the atmosphere down to the ozone layer. Powerful solar storms can also damage satellites and disrupt electrical power networks. However the mechanisms by which energetic particles generated by the Sun enter the Earth's atmosphere, and the complex, interacting processes that affect stratospheric ozone are not well understood, which limits our ability to accurately predict future ozone changes and impacts on climate. We propose answering major unresolved questions about energetic particle effects on ozone by making observations of the middle atmosphere from the prestigious ALOMAR facility in northern Norway. This location, close to the Arctic Circle, is directly under the main region where energetic particles enter the atmosphere, making it ideal to observe the resulting effects. We will install a state-of-the-art microwave radiometer there alongside other equipment run by scientists from all round the world. By analysing the microwaves naturally emitted by the atmosphere high above us we can work out how much ozone there is 30-90 km above the ground as well as measuring chemicals produced in the atmosphere by energetic particles. We will make observations throughout a complete Arctic winter (2011/12) and interpret them with the help of data from orbiting spacecraft measuring the energetic particles entering the atmosphere. We will use the Arctic observations and computer-based models to better understand the impact of energetic particles on the atmosphere. The ultimate goal is to further understanding of the processes that lead to climate variability in the Polar Regions and globally - highly relevant for UK environmental science, the BAS programme, and collaborative research at an international level in which BAS plays a key role.