The Age Structure of the Greenland ice sheet from Airborne Radar Data (ASGARD)

Recent observations suggest that the Greenland Ice Sheet, is losing ice at an accelerating rate. Because the ice sheet contains 2.85 million cubic km, equivalent to a global sea level rise of 7.2 m, this melting could contribute substantially to future sea level rise. Despite this, current sea level projections specifically exclude changes in the ice flow of the Greenland ice sheet. This is because of difficulties in knowing whether projected changes in the ice sheet are being correctly modelled. Improving the ability to be able to model ice flow dynamics in Greenland is an urgent problem.

To quantify the potential threat that Greenland poses to longer-term global sea-level rise we need a more profound understanding of the internal ice sheet structure. This will help inform how the ice sheet may responses to changing climate.

Airborne geophysics provides a means to observe the internal structure of the Greenland ice sheet. Previously, technical difficulties in extracting information, have prevented the use of existing aerogeophysical data. Here, it is proposed to apply new means to overcome these difficulties. The new methods are based on using techniques which have been developed in other research fields. They will be applied here to this new ice sheet aerogeophysical problem, thereby helping to make the best use of pre-existing expensive aerogeophyscial observations. The new methods will describe quantitatively the internal ages of the ice sheet.

The new age information extracted will allow glaciologists to test, at the continental-scale, whether models of ice flow are correct. This will help to provide a better understanding of ongoing Greenland ice sheet changes, helping to understand the past and predict the future. This is a necessary step in reducing uncertainties on Greenland mass loss predictions.

Sea level change will have impacts on many international societal issues including land loss, flooding, coastal water supplies and a host of other issues. These impacts mean that policy-relevant information at national and international government level is required. This will be achieved through two routes: (i) The British Antarctic Survey Communications Team will provide plain language, relevant copy for briefing policy-makers. (ii) Several EU ice sheet modelling programmes provides a direct route for proposal scientific results to be included in major policy-relevant programme reports. These programme reports will be directly provided to the UK government.

The techniques and datasets produced by this proposal will be provided to several relevant international programmes. Some of these programmes are based at the British Antarctic Survey, whilst others are run by international collaborators. Impacts on technical radar development proposals are also possible. Scientific knowledge exchanges will be facilitated by a specialist EGU session will be convened. This will be arranged with a range of collaborators.

Dialogue with other stakeholders will be pursued through a variety of means. Routes to impact will include: (i) The highly visited BAS website provides a valuable online communication opportunity. A BAS ASGARD web page will be jointly constructed by the PI and the BAS Communications Team for the BAS website, and additional communications techniques will be used to drive traffic direct to this content. Similar web pages, with links to data resources, will also be supplied to PAGES and ResearchPages.net, where the PI already maintains web pages. (ii) An ongoing program, talking with school children. (iii) Public talks with the WI, the U3A, and other bodies. (iv) Press releases using engaging, plain language copy will be used to communicate the results and importance of the end of project high impact peer-reviewed paper. This will be co-written by the PI and BAS Communications Team, and used to maximise the potential for media take-up of the findings and ultimate dissemination to the general public. The PI has past experience in successfully writing press releases which have been widely picked up by print, broadcast and online media outlets, communicating key messages throughout. (v) Past experiences in helping to develop features for Planet Earth Online will also be applied to ASGARD.

The impacts of these routes should be to: help foster public understanding of science; facilitate dialogue with children and young people; help secure the next generation of scientists; and reassure the public that the UK remains at the forefront of cutting-edge polar and climate science.

Milestones for impacts will include the publication of, and conference communications of, peer-reviewed papers and datasets. Evaluation of other types of activity will be carried out in accordance with BAS/NERC metrics. The British Antarctic Survey Communications Team already captures outputs from educational and public engagement activity, which are reported annually to the BAS Board and in NERC's RODS database. A brief evaluation report of this project will illustrate how well public engagement objectives are met, and indicate the impact that each has on its target audience. Analysis of impact is conducted through measurement of visitor numbers, media outputs and visitor feedback forms. The BAS Communications Team will also monitor scientific engagement through citation counts, records of articles, programmes, and IPCC citations. As an example of the metrics produced, the BAS website averages 1,800 unique users per day, rising to more than 5,000 when it is used to publish BAS news. BAS press releases generate, on average, 110 media articles giving 19 million opportunities to see, read or hear about the work.