Extinction risks and invasiveness in the British flora

Plants are the basis of life on earth and provide multiple ecosystem services. However, scientific research on the underlying biology of extinction risks is developing piecemeal, and has mostly focused on vertebrates. To date, the IUCN Red List provides the most widely used and well-known system for assessing extinction risks (1). Initially, it was not intended to set conservation priorities, but in practice it often feeds directly into this process. Recent research by the PI of this proposal showed that the processes of extinction and speciation are linked in the Cape flora of South Africa - seemingly the most vulnerable species are often the youngest (2). This research revived debates about how best to employ IUCN Red Lists: indeed, young species may appear at high risk of extinction simply because their populations have not yet had time to grow and spread (2, 3). However, it is also possible that some plant species might be doomed to extinction from their very inception. Critically, Savolainen and co-workers found that the most vulnerable plant species are nonetheless marching towards extinction at a more rapid pace, but surprisingly, independently from human impact (2).

Encroachment by invasive alien plants is another major source of threat to ecosystems. Indeed, up to half a million species are classified as 'invasive aliens' worldwide, causing costs of over 1 trillion euros per year (4). So far, it has not been possible to predict whether an introduced species will become invasive, and it is unclear whether certain traits promote invasiveness. Recent research by the PI in a subtropical archipelago (Azores) showed that introduced plant species are likely to become invasive when there are no closely related species in the area (5). Using phylogenetic information, some measures of evolutionary relatedness turned out to a reliable predictor of invasiveness. Also, using analyses at different geographic scales, Savolainen and co-workers argued that enemy release plays an important role in biological invasions in the Azores (5).

Although British plants are by far some of the best-known anywhere in the world in terms of taxonomy, geography and ecology - astoundingly, the causes of their extinction risks as well as threats by 'alien taxa' (currently outnumbering native species in the UK) are understudied. Following methodologies developed by the PI in subtropical areas, and building on preliminary phylogenetic data available at the host, we will fill this knowledge gap - aiming to identify correlates of extinctions and predictors of invasions in the British flora. Undoubtedly comparisons between the UK and the subtropics will also prove pertinent.

Outreach Activities:

Events:

We will organise a workshop with representatives of our major stakeholders (IUCN, DEFRA, JNCC, learned societies, NERC's Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Natural England, etc). This workshop will be held at RBG Kew in Month 13, so that there is scope for our stakeholders to influence the planned analyses for the last five months, maybe suggesting some particularly ones relevant to their remits. We will invite the participants via RBG Kew, which has considerable experience in this sort of cross-sectors meeting. During this workshop, we will present our results and seek feedback, while also organising a science/policy debate under the hospice of the GSPC. A public lecture in the Jodrell Laboratory at RBG Kew by one of us will conclude this day. The lecture will be filmed and available to view/download on our institutional websites and on YouTube.

At the end of the project, we will organise a public exhibition in the Gardens at RBG Kew - presenting our results to visitors, on large panels mounted outside the Jodrell Laboratory. The exhibition will last two weeks, when we expect about 40,000 people to visit RBG Kew. These panels will also be reused during open days at Imperial College London.

Press and Communication Activities:

We will write at least two scientific papers, targeting high impact, open access journals such as Nature, Science, PNAS, PLoS Biology. Publications will be publicised by press releases and podcasts from our press offices (Imperial and Kew). We will also have dedicated pages on Savolainen's website, where data, reports, ppt figures, potential teaching material, etc, will be available freely. An executive summary report of our research will also be posted on our website and Nature Preceedings, and available to stakeholders at the end of the project.

A Popular article will be published in Kew Magazine, the quarterly magazine of the RBG Kew. The contribution of top writers and photographers, combined with outstanding design, high production values and editorial quality, has made Kew Magazine a finalist and winner of the Garden Media Guild Awards several times in the past. One article about our research will be written by one of the regular contributors of the magazine, and commissioned by RBG Kew.

Finally, we will present our research with an oral communication at one international conference, such as the European Symposium of Evolutionary Biology (ESEB 2013).