UK - China Initiative to Develop Predictive Multi-Scale Ocean Modelling as a Key Aspect of a Joint Environmental Modelling Centre

China is increasingly taking the lead in solutions to environmental problems and this will continue as substantial Chinese investment is scheduled for this purpose. The Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP) in Beijing is an internationally leading organisation in this area and will substantially benefit from this additional investment. The Applied Modelling and Computational Group at Imperial College London (AMCG-ICL) is an environmental modelling group developing next generation methods. We propose a two year starter project with a combination of training and scientific effort in the UK and China synchronized with a range of supporting activities that will build the foundation for a subsequently self supporting (combination of UK and Chinese funds) 'International Research Centre'. The Centre will combine our world leading technologies and manpower to accelerate research excellence and delivery of numerical modelling insights and solutions to grand challenge environmental problems in the UK and China way beyond the capability of the UK alone. A relatively small investment would leverage China's massive past, current and future investments in IAP and past UK investments in next generation environmental flow models (particularly the multi-scale ocean model Fluidity-ICOM). This collaboration will develop a world leading predictive modelling framework. The starter project funded here will provide the focus for the training and collaboration so as to apply IAP's data assimilation methods to our multi-scale ocean model Fluidity-ICOM.

Next Generation Ocean-Atmosphere Model:

A Grand Challenge in Earth System Science is modelling the global circulation across the full range of relevant spatial and temporal scales. For climate prediction, this means resolving both basin scale and smaller scale features such as boundary currents, mixing; chemical interactions and transport, overflows, and mesoscale eddies. Such simulations will lie well beyond the capability of traditional ocean and atmosphere models. It is now generally recognised that the next generation of ocean models will be based on unstructured mesh technology as currently this is the only feasible way of resolving the important range of scales in coastal regions. As identified by the NERC strategy document 'oceans 2025 WP9', unstructured mesh ocean models are the key ocean modelling technology for the future modelling of multi-scale ocean to estuary and smaller scale modelling. Among existing unstructured mesh models, ICOM-Fluidity is the only model that can be used for simulation of flow on all scales using adaptive mesh resolution and is therefore an ideal platform for the next generation of data assimilation models to be developed on. One result of the training program will be that ICOM-Fluidity will be used to form a forward model of the China Sea. There will be a large amount of data to assimilate into the model e.g. satellite, argo floats and ship tracks. Ensemble Kalman Filter EnKF and gradient or adjoint based data assimilation methods will be used with ICOM-Fluidity to provide forecasts and to interpolate available data.

Planned activities that will support the IAP - AMCG-ICL research:

1) Training courses, workshops and Summer schools.
2) PhD students, PDRAs and senior staff time to apply (and help develop) the model e.g. set up the UK and China sea model and develop uncertainty, reduced order and data assimilation methods.
3) Exchanges of academic staff and PhD students.
4) Development of a new substantial funding grant in China and the UK to fund the centre.
5) Strengthened UK link and development of further initiatives with the Chinese Academy of Sciences.
6) Formalised visiting status for key Imperial College researchers

The proposed work will build upon an established infrastructure to develop a collaborative relationship between AMCG-ICL and IAP. This project will include extensive training in model use and development with apprentice-piece projects focused on tidal modeling and data assimilation. This initial collaborative work will form the foundation for an 'International Centre' to tackle grand challenge environmental problems. This centre will ultimately focus on establishing a world leading predictive environmental modelling framework. This will enable observations and experimental measurements to be used within models. This predictive framework will allow optimisation of the type and location of expensive observations/measurements and provide optimal control (with feedback from observations) of climate/pollution. One of the best examples of this was performed by IAP to generate the 'blue skies' for the Beijing Olympics. A key advantage of forming a joint centre between AMCG-ICL and IAP is that the combined science and infrastructure puts the Centre in a position to win substantial grants/awards and generate large scientific and economic impacts.

Our partner organizations from across the world would use and develop model technology from the resulting framework and this synergy will further develop the capability of the model and center.

This work will benefit the following: Consulting Companies; Engineers; Observational Data Centers/Companies; Designers in Organizations/Industries; Power Companies; Environmental Agencies/Industries; Government Security Bodies; Government, Regulatory Bodies and Stakeholders.

Planned activities to ensure good engagement and communication with beneficiaries in ocean modelling and wider fields include: exchanges between AMCG and IAP; documentation and tools to improve the user experience; code packaging; post processing tools; improved web presence; training events; publications; collaboration with Universities and industries.

IAP provides a route for exploitation of the proposed technology through its research work and government/industry links. The UK is also committed to developing unstructured mesh ocean models (Oceans 2025) and provides similar routes (e.g. through AMCG-ICL and UK labs NOCS, NOCL and HR Wallingford) for exploitation and application. In addition, ICL has a subsidiary Imperial Innovations with the remit of promoting and commercializing innovation and expertise developed within the University, for the benefit of industry and the wider community. Imperial Innovations supports the transfer of expertise and knowledge into industry and has experience of many software spin-outs. This expertise will be used to negotiate the type of flexible agreements that would be required for research consultancy and collaborative work, or expanding the commercial use of our tools.

Scientists will benefit from this research through improved prediction of the multi-scale coastal flow processes, especially the prediction of extreme weather and climate phenomena such as storms and floods. In particular the ability to determine the sensitivity of these events to key variables will provide reliable information to both the public, and the policy decision-makers at regional, national, and international levels. Individuals in academia would be expected to develop and help deliver an open source, easy-to-use model with which they can perform their own studies. The rapidly growing academic user base of the Imperial College Ocean Model (ICOM) will benefit from the enhanced predictive/analysis ability provided by data assimilation, sensitivity and uncertainty analysis.

We highlight the following academic beneficiaries: Geoscientific computational fields; Meteorology, Oceanography communities; Multi-physics applications; Computer science; and established collaborating Institutes in the UK and globally.