International Partnership for Collaboration and Training in Earthquake Hazard Assessment and Mitigation in the Alpine-Himalayan Belt and Central Asia

As a series of high-impact earthquakes has made clear over the last few years, a stark contrast exists today between the effects of earthquakes in rich and developing nations. In terms of human life, the risk is overwhelmingly concentrated in the developing world, and predominantly in continental interiors, with the Alpine-Himalayan region and central Asia being particularly threatened. Many communities and cities in that region are known to be vulnerable because of past earthquakes, but now have considerably larger exposed populations.

A first, and essential, step in reducing that vulnerability is to improve the level of knowledge and characterization of the hazard concerned; which is far below, for example, California or Japan. That task requires the engagement of scientists in the countries concerned, but would be greatly aided by the expertise available in the international scientific community, even in countries where the local scientific base is already strong.

In particular, two geological effects contribute to continental Asia's special vulnerability. (1) Earthquakes in continental interiors typically occur on widely distributed faults that are poorly known and move relatively infrequently. By comparison, those on plate boundaries adjacent to oceans (such as Japan, Chile) occur on faults that are more localized, better known, and move more often. (2) Many human settlements in continental interiors concentrate (and then grow) in locations related to earthquake-generating faults, which control topography, water supply or trade routes.

Improving knowledge and understanding of the earthquake hazard is therefore inescapably linked to the first-order scientific question of how continental tectonics works - a cutting-edge priority at the highest level in international science, which also requires the full range of observational, theoretical and technical capabilities now available to the scientific community.

The issues involved in addressing earthquake hazard and earthquake science in the Alpine-Himalayan region and central Asia are therefore best tackled by international partnerships of scientists, which can help bring an appropriate mixture of expertise, technology, man-power and training to bear in each area or country. That is the point of the Partnership proposed here.

The UK-based investigators in this proposal, principally from COMET+ *, the BGS (British Geological Survey) and Durham, are in a unique position to lead this Partnership, having been engaged on the ground or remotely in nearly all the countries concerned for a decade or more. This proposal originates from that point being made by non-UK participants at an international workshop in 2011, held specifically to address issues related to increasing resilience to earthquake hazard.

This proposal is to facilitate the functioning of the Partnership through funding meetings, workshops and training activities, including a summer school and exchange visits, principally of young scientists between the UK and participating countries. The principal Project Partners, who will also contribute substantially to the costs, are Italy, Kazakhstan and China. Supporting members include Greece, Turkey, Iran, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and Kyrgyzstan. Others may join later. The intention is that the benefits and functioning of the Partnership continue well beyond the duration of the IOF award.

*COMET+ is the Dynamic Earth and Geohazards Group of NERC's National Centre for Earth Observation (NCEO): see (http://comet.nerc.ac.uk)

Who will benefit?
The principles beneficiaries are:
1. The countries participating in the partnership.
2. The relations between UK government institutions, NGOs and foreign equivalents.
3. International institutions and organizations concerned with earthquake hazard.
4. The Insurance and Risk Industry concerned with earthquake hazard and catastrophe planning.
5. The wider public understanding of science.

How will they benefit?
The countries participating in the partnership include a number of government-funded or -run institutions charged with advising on earthquake risk, such the INGV (Italy), GSI (Iran), CEA (China), and Ministry of Emergencies (Kazakhstan). This proposal is to stimulate and enhance their earthquake science capabilities - but these organizations are well aware of the importance of that science in helping them with their government advisory roles (see supporting letters). Our scientific input will aid them in this important additional function, as will the experience we can bring of government and inter-government interaction through our colleagues in the British Geological Survey (BGS), including its Director and a KE Fellow.
Some UK institutions are likely to benefit through increased contacts and interaction with their overseas equivalents that are likely to lead to other cooperative activities or contracts. The most obvious is the BGS, which has a lot of experience and advice to offer countries concerned with enhancing their national capabilities, such as monitoring networks. They may well involve other UK institutions in this endeavour.
This project will provide input to international institutions and organizations concerned with earthquake hazard. The most obvious is the Global Earthquake Model (GEM), concerned with a global characterization of potentially earthquake-generating faults - essentially an international scientific data-gathering project. NERC and BGS are partners in GEM, and some COMET+ investigators are already contributing their own inputs on faults and countries they have been studying. Several of our overseas Partners are also their own national representatives on GEM, so there are multiple and clear links to make sure the new science from this Partnership, which will be highly relevant, is channelled effectively into the GEM project.
The Insurance and Risk Industry, both in the UK and overseas, is concerned with earthquake hazard and catastrophe planning. It is a principal driver behind the GEM project and is clearly interested in the constantly-evolving understanding of earthquake hazard. We are well connected to this industry through: (1) the BGS and NERC Council, which includes Mr. Rowan Douglas of Willis Re; (2) the COMET+ Advisory Board, which includes Dr. Andrew Coburn of Risk Management Solutions (RMS); (3) Prof. Robin Spence of Cambridge Architectural Research Ltd, who is a member of the Willis Research Network and on the Scientific Board of GEM.
Large, damaging earthquakes are rarely out of the news for long, and so the potential for engagement with the public understanding of science is considerable. There is a constant demand for COMET+ and BGS investigators to appear on radio and television broadcasts, to write articles in the popular press, and to give public lectures. All the investigators on this proposal are regularly engaged in this activity, even when the earthquake is not in a country where we work directly. The public appetite for informed, clear, understandable and jargon-free explanations of natural catastrophes is insatiable. Such events are virtually certain to occur during the duration of an IOF award. We will pursue energetically the opportunities to engage with the public through lectures, broadcasts, web sites and briefings to UK government agencies and NGOs.