Strengthening Resilience in Volcanic Areas (STREVA)

STREVA will bring together researchers from universities, research institutes and volcano observatories, to explore methods for reducing the negative consequences of volcanic activity on communities. We will work both with the communities facing volcanic threats, and with those responsible for monitoring, preparing for and responding to those threats. Our main partners are volcano monitoring agencies and observatories in Colombia, the Caribbean and Ecuador, and through them, disaster managers and disaster researchers throughout the region, as well as residents of communities at risk. We will use a number of techniques to build links between the project and the wider community, including workshops, running scenario exercises, and using social media to report our results. Our aim, by working collaboratively across different disciplines, is to develop and apply a risk assessment framework that will generate better plans to reduce the negative consequences of volcanic activity on people and assets.

Volcanic risk is a complex problem, which we shall understand by investigating a number of volcanoes, at-risk communities, emergencies and policy responses across the region. These case studies will help us to identify common issues in volcanic disaster risk and ultimately develop regional risk assessment processes. These will be crucial for long-term planning to reduce exposure to volcanic hazards. The countries in which we will work are all middle income and face multiple volcanic threats, often in close proximity to large towns and cities. The main focus will be on six volcanic sites across the Lesser Antilles, Ecuador and Colombia.

We will begin the project by reviewing the secondary literature on three well monitored and active volcanoes, to analyse what has already been done to understand and reduce risk to the surrounding population. Through in-depth empirical research in these volcanic areas we shall begin to develop, test and apply our new risk assessment framework and methods for application. We will then take these lessons and apply them to three high-risk volcanoes where monitoring and understanding is less advanced.

STREVA's work will generate improvements in:
(i) methods for forecasting the start of eruptions and changes in activity during eruption;
(ii) prediction of areas at-risk (the "footprint") from different volcanic hazards;
(iii) understanding of the factors that make people and their assets more vulnerable to volcanic threats;
(iv) understanding of institutional constraints and capacities and how to improve incentives for risk reduction

By the end of the project, our new knowledge will help us to measure volcanic risk more accurately and monitor how that risk is changing. The practical results will be a strengthening in the capacity of stakeholders at different scales (staff in volcano observatories, local and national governments and NGOs) to produce risk assessments for high-risk volcanoes and use them to improve preparedness and response to volcanic emergencies and build resilience in the surrounding communities through long-term planning. In adopting this approach, STREVA will have real impacts in real places, and will significantly advance the fields of volcanic risk analysis and disaster risk reduction.

STREVA intends to achieve a set of research aims that will create new knowledge for the improved analysis of volcanic risk. This analysis, focussed around 3 'forensic' and 3 'trial' volcanic settings will help shape the process of integrating volcanic risk management in appropriate policies at local, national and regional level.
This will depend on forging trusted relationships with key stakeholders, having compelling and clearly communicated information on the components and dynamics of risk and developing a solid understanding of the complexity of policy processes. In turn, if implemented well, such policies will help to strengthen the resilience of people and assets exposed to volcanic hazards. Policies may include restricting land use, improving early warning systems, developing new building code guidance, supporting particular approaches to relocation and investing in improved education or new communications protocols during crises. In working towards such an impact, we intend to show by example that interdisciplinary research can be applied in volcanic settings in ways that lead to an increase in community resilience.
Outputs of the research undertaken by STREVA will benefit a number of end users, both immediately and over the longer term. By working with a range of local and regional stakeholders to achieve a better understanding of the components and dynamics of risk in volcanic areas, STREVA aims to improve the policies and practices of businesses, public sector agencies and non-government organisations responsible for reducing disaster risk and building resilience. Those benefitting directly from this research include local governments and other public sector agencies based or working close to the 'trial' volcanoes (such as civil defence authorities), observatories and local elected officials. Although there have been recent signs of unrest, no eruptions have taken place hence local authorities have little experience managing the associated risks. They will be consulted throughout the project and involved in work on forecasting and characterising vulnerability and institutional capacity to deal with different aspects of volcanic risk and will participate in volcanic unrest simulation exercises.
Risk assessments produced by WPs 1-4 can be used immediately by these stakeholders to improve decision making, in particular with regard to evacuations and land-use planning in high risk areas. Information from the 'forensic' studies will be made available to local decision makers at the trial volcanoes to help them understand the interactions between different dimensions of risk. These outputs will continue to be of use over the longer term as risk conditions change, as STREVA will develop innovative methods for incorporating broader understandings of risk into quantitative risk assessments and applying these to dynamic, changing risk situations.
National public sector agencies will also benefit indirectly from this research. National DRR policies are likely to be strengthened from the inclusion of new approaches to volcanic risk analysis and risk communication. Within the private sector, insurance companies will benefit from information produced by the volcanic risk assessments, which may help to support the development of parametric insurance products for inclusion with the Caribbean Catastrophic Risk Insurance Facility for example. Other likely beneficiaries include international and local NGOs working on disaster risk reduction at community and policy level, whose projects could be improved by more detailed analysis of exposure, vulnerability, capacity and policy processes in study regions, enabling them to develop enhanced advocacy strategies or community-based disaster risk reduction plans. Ultimately, the most important beneficiaries are people whose lives and livelihoods are threatened by volcanic hazards. Their resilience is expected to increase as a result of our work on the trial volcanones.