Hydrology-phosphorus interactions under changing climate and land-use: overcoming uncertainties and challenges for prediction to 2050 (Nutcat 2050)
Lead Research Organisation:
Lancaster University
Department Name: Lancaster Environment Centre
Abstract
The proposal aims to advance our understanding and predictions of interactions between hydrology and nutrient transfers in headwater catchments in the UK, under climate and land use change scenarios to 2050, using the very latest data and modeling approaches available for the UK. The study catchments will be the UK Demonstration Test Catchments (DTCs) and the aims will be achieved through: (1) using existing climate model scenarios to set baseline outcomes for change; (2) localized DTC-focused stakeholder elicitation workshops to develop scenarios for land use changes in response to the climate scenarios; (3) simulating current hydrological events and future changes in catchment hydrology in response to changing climate/land use; (4) new understanding of phosphorus (P) behaviour in extreme hydrological conditions, using experiments and newly available high resolution observations from the DTCs to inform model development; (5) improved prediction (with uncertainty) of future P behaviour scenarios arising from the new understanding of hydrology-P interactions; (6) attempting to scale up the information from headwater-catchment to full basin scale, and; (7) compare model performance with existing P models and assess uncertainties involved in this process, with further iterations of stakeholder consultation. We shall focus on the 10 km2 scale because this matches the size of the nine study catchments of the Defra DTCs (from the Eden, Wensum and Avon DTCs), which are our chosen study areas; this scale also represents the ideal size for studying processes along the mobilisation-delivery-in-stream impact 'transfer continuum'. These integrated studies will produce a prototype quantitative assessment and prediction of nutrient fluxes.
Our hypothesis is that increased seasonal variability in storm patterns (more extreme events, long drought periods), combined with interactions with land use change, will greatly alter future dissolved and particulate P fluxes across the land-water continuum and subsequent retention in-stream and downstream eutrophication risk. We shall extend our initial 'Systems Evidence Based Assessment Methodology (SEBAM)' study that focused on mobilization of P at the farm scale (recently published by the team), into a prototype modeling framework that includes source, mobilization, delivery and in-stream processing functions for predicting P fluxes from UK headwater catchments, and considers land use change, and use this framework (combined with knowledge from other projects involving the team) to scale up our information to define the potential for predicting other nutrient behaviours at the full basin scale.
We will capitalize on the new and unique high quality, high temporal resolution P monitoring data that is starting to emerge from the nine Defra DTC sub-catchments. A unique and exciting aspect of the work will be the use of expert elicitation procedures that incorporate fuzzy uncertainty-based analyses to develop tailored land use scenarios (building on the UK Land Use Foresight Initiative) for each of the unique landscape typologies for the 9 DTC focus catchments. Combining this information with the latest climate scenarios for the UK, we will include new developments in high-resolution numerical weather prediction. We shall then use these scenarios to study the impacts of climate and land use change to 2050 on hydrology, P mobilization, delivery and in-stream processing, informed from new empirical learning and experimentation. Model outputs will then be validated for other catchments in the wider UK (Conwy, Ribble, Tarland) using data from linked projects and our partners. Throughout the project, the outcomes will be tested with stakeholders. This will deliver a locally owned knowledge-based framework for understanding and managing future nutrient transfers from rural catchment systems, and some exciting new science on P transfers.
Our hypothesis is that increased seasonal variability in storm patterns (more extreme events, long drought periods), combined with interactions with land use change, will greatly alter future dissolved and particulate P fluxes across the land-water continuum and subsequent retention in-stream and downstream eutrophication risk. We shall extend our initial 'Systems Evidence Based Assessment Methodology (SEBAM)' study that focused on mobilization of P at the farm scale (recently published by the team), into a prototype modeling framework that includes source, mobilization, delivery and in-stream processing functions for predicting P fluxes from UK headwater catchments, and considers land use change, and use this framework (combined with knowledge from other projects involving the team) to scale up our information to define the potential for predicting other nutrient behaviours at the full basin scale.
We will capitalize on the new and unique high quality, high temporal resolution P monitoring data that is starting to emerge from the nine Defra DTC sub-catchments. A unique and exciting aspect of the work will be the use of expert elicitation procedures that incorporate fuzzy uncertainty-based analyses to develop tailored land use scenarios (building on the UK Land Use Foresight Initiative) for each of the unique landscape typologies for the 9 DTC focus catchments. Combining this information with the latest climate scenarios for the UK, we will include new developments in high-resolution numerical weather prediction. We shall then use these scenarios to study the impacts of climate and land use change to 2050 on hydrology, P mobilization, delivery and in-stream processing, informed from new empirical learning and experimentation. Model outputs will then be validated for other catchments in the wider UK (Conwy, Ribble, Tarland) using data from linked projects and our partners. Throughout the project, the outcomes will be tested with stakeholders. This will deliver a locally owned knowledge-based framework for understanding and managing future nutrient transfers from rural catchment systems, and some exciting new science on P transfers.
Planned Impact
There are many groups of potential beneficiaries of the proposed research, these include:
- Policymakers (Defra in particular, Scottish and Welsh Governments, EU): who are responsible for setting policies for sustainable rural land and water use now and the future, this project will directly support policy development;
- Water Companies in the UK (private and public): who are increasingly using catchment based approaches to manage water quality, need the approaches and data from this project to manage the risks from future climate and land use change on their water resources;
- Private enterprises and businesses (e.g. environmental consultancies): require information from this project about how to link climate and hydro-biogeochemical models and the relative performance of alternative modeling approaches to deliver projects to a broad range of clients;
- Food chain suppliers and supermarkets: require better information that this project will provide on how future climate scenarios will affect sustainable land use;
- Farming advisors (including Rivers Trusts) and extension officers: will benefit directly from the approaches, data and knowledge generated from this project on how rural land management influences P transfers from land to water now and in the future; and
- Farmers and land managers: require greater knowledge on possible future changes in climate and how this will affect their operations and losses of valuable P stocks from their soils.
These stakeholders will benefit because the work aims to improve our understanding of nutrient transfers from land to water and we shall provide new methods of predicting (and thus mitigating) what may happen in future events. They will also benefit from improved the knowledge of uncertainty and this will help them make more robust judgments about future management scenarios. All of these will contribute towards a reduction of nutrient pollution that contributes towards eutrophication of rivers, lakes and estuaries and, potentially, an increase in biodiversity.
- Policymakers (Defra in particular, Scottish and Welsh Governments, EU): who are responsible for setting policies for sustainable rural land and water use now and the future, this project will directly support policy development;
- Water Companies in the UK (private and public): who are increasingly using catchment based approaches to manage water quality, need the approaches and data from this project to manage the risks from future climate and land use change on their water resources;
- Private enterprises and businesses (e.g. environmental consultancies): require information from this project about how to link climate and hydro-biogeochemical models and the relative performance of alternative modeling approaches to deliver projects to a broad range of clients;
- Food chain suppliers and supermarkets: require better information that this project will provide on how future climate scenarios will affect sustainable land use;
- Farming advisors (including Rivers Trusts) and extension officers: will benefit directly from the approaches, data and knowledge generated from this project on how rural land management influences P transfers from land to water now and in the future; and
- Farmers and land managers: require greater knowledge on possible future changes in climate and how this will affect their operations and losses of valuable P stocks from their soils.
These stakeholders will benefit because the work aims to improve our understanding of nutrient transfers from land to water and we shall provide new methods of predicting (and thus mitigating) what may happen in future events. They will also benefit from improved the knowledge of uncertainty and this will help them make more robust judgments about future management scenarios. All of these will contribute towards a reduction of nutrient pollution that contributes towards eutrophication of rivers, lakes and estuaries and, potentially, an increase in biodiversity.
Organisations
- Lancaster University (Lead Research Organisation)
- Anglia Ruskin University (Collaboration)
- James Hutton Institute (Collaboration, Project Partner)
- Rothamsted Research (Collaboration)
- Eden Rivers Trust (Collaboration)
- EdenDTC (Collaboration)
- University of East Anglia (Collaboration)
- Agricultural Development Advisory Service (United Kingdom) (Project Partner)
- University of East Anglia (Project Partner)
- Anglia Ruskin University (Project Partner)
Publications
Bellarby J
(2017)
Strategies for sustainable nutrient management: insights from a mixed natural and social science analysis of Chinese crop production systems
in Environmental Development
Bellarby J
(2018)
The stocks and flows of nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium across a 30-year time series for agriculture in Huantai county, China.
in The Science of the total environment
Benskin C
(2014)
Review of the A nnual P hosphorus L oss E stimator tool - a new model for estimating phosphorus losses at the field scale
in Soil Use and Management
Chan S
(2018)
Projected changes in extreme precipitation over Scotland and Northern England using a high-resolution regional climate model
in Climate Dynamics
Chan SC
(2020)
Europe-wide precipitation projections at convection permitting scale with the Unified Model.
in Climate dynamics
Cuttle S
(2016)
A method-centric 'User Manual' for the mitigation of diffuse water pollution from agriculture
in Soil Use and Management
Doody D
(2016)
Optimizing land use for the delivery of catchment ecosystem services
in Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment
Dupas R
(2016)
Uncertainty assessment of a dominant-process catchment model of dissolved phosphorus transfer
in Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
Elser
(2021)
Phosphorus: Past and Future
Forber K
(2018)
The Phosphorus Transfer Continuum: A Framework for Exploring Effects of Climate Change
in Agricultural & Environmental Letters
Forber KJ
(2017)
Determining the Effect of Drying Time on Phosphorus Solubilization from Three Agricultural Soils under Climate Change Scenarios.
in Journal of environmental quality
Haygarth PM
(2014)
Sustainable phosphorus management and the need for a long-term perspective: the legacy hypothesis.
in Environmental science & technology
Haygarth PM
(2021)
Local solutions to global phosphorus imbalances.
in Nature food
Hollaway M
(2018)
The challenges of modelling phosphorus in a headwater catchment: Applying a 'limits of acceptability' uncertainty framework to a water quality model
in Journal of Hydrology
Hollaway M
(2018)
A method for uncertainty constraint of catchment discharge and phosphorus load estimates
in Hydrological Processes
Hollaway, M.J.
(2014)
A multi-model uncertainty assessment of phosphorus transport using high-frequency data from the River Eden catchment, Cumbria
in TERENO 2014
Kusmer A
(2018)
Watershed Buffering of Legacy Phosphorus Pressure at a Regional Scale: A Comparison Across Space and Time
in Ecosystems
M.L. Villamizar
Lattice-Boltzmann method for in-stream phosphorus cycle
M.L. Villamizar
Lattice-Boltzmann method for in-stream phosphorus cycle
Ma J
(2018)
The long-term soil phosphorus balance across Chinese arable land
in Soil Use and Management
Macdonald G
(2016)
Guiding phosphorus stewardship for multiple ecosystem services
in Ecosystem Health and Sustainability
Macintosh KA
(2019)
Transforming phosphorus use on the island of Ireland: A model for a sustainable system.
in The Science of the total environment
Macintosh KA
(2019)
Transforming soil phosphorus fertility management strategies to support the delivery of multiple ecosystem services from agricultural systems.
in The Science of the total environment
McDowell RW
(2023)
A Global Database of Soil Plant Available Phosphorus.
in Scientific data
Nicholson F
(2018)
Long-term Effects of Biosolids on Soil Quality and Fertility
in Soil Science
Ockenden M
(2017)
Prediction of storm transfers and annual loads with data-based mechanistic models using high-frequency data
in Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
Ockenden MC
(2017)
Major agricultural changes required to mitigate phosphorus losses under climate change.
in Nature communications
Ockenden MC
(2016)
Changing climate and nutrient transfers: Evidence from high temporal resolution concentration-flow dynamics in headwater catchments.
in The Science of the total environment
Ockenden, M.C.
(2014)
Phosphorus transport under extreme events: analysis of high-frequency data from the River Eden catchment, Cumbria
in British Hydrological Society National Symposium 2014
Outram F
(2014)
High-frequency monitoring of nitrogen and phosphorus response in three rural catchments to the end of the 2011-2012 drought in England
in Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
Perks MT
(2015)
Dominant mechanisms for the delivery of fine sediment and phosphorus to fluvial networks draining grassland dominated headwater catchments.
in The Science of the total environment
Powers S
(2016)
Long-term accumulation and transport of anthropogenic phosphorus in three river basins
in Nature Geoscience
Rech I
(2018)
Solubility, Diffusion and Crop Uptake of Phosphorus in Three Different Struvites
in Sustainability
Roberts WM
(2020)
Phosphorus leaching from riparian soils with differing management histories under three grass species.
in Journal of environmental quality
Ross, K.J.
(2014)
Phosphorus transfer from soil to water under dry / wet extremes and potential climate and land use changes in catchments
in British Society of Soil Science Annual meeting 2014
Smith L
(2017)
Mitigation of diffuse water pollution from agriculture in England and China, and the scope for policy transfer
in Land Use Policy
Snell MA
(2019)
Strong and recurring seasonality revealed within stream diatom assemblages.
in Scientific reports
Terry JA
(2014)
Temporal dynamics between cattle in-stream presence and suspended solids in a headwater catchment.
in Environmental science. Processes & impacts
Tweedie A
(2021)
Soil phosphorus over a period of agricultural change in Scotland
in European Journal of Soil Science
Van Soest MAJ
(2022)
Grazing and topography control nutrient pools in low Arctic soils of Southwest Greenland.
in European journal of soil science
Withers P
(2018)
Achieving Sustainable Phosphorus Use in Food Systems through Circularisation
in Sustainability
Withers P
(2017)
Reducing soil phosphorus fertility brings potential long-term environmental gains: A UK analysis
in Environmental Research Letters
Zhou JG
(2016)
Lattice Boltzmann method for the fractional advection-diffusion equation.
in Physical review. E
| Description | Phosphorus losses from land to water will be impacted by climate change and land management for food production, with detrimental impacts on aquatic ecosystems. Here we have used a unique combination of methods to evaluate the impact of projected climate change on future phosphorus transfers, and to assess what scale of agricultural change would be needed to mitigate these transfers. We combine novel high-frequency phosphorus flux data from three representative catchments across the UK, a new high-spatial resolution climate model, uncertainty estimates from an ensemble of future climate simulations, two phosphorus transfer models of contrasting complexity and a simplified representation of the potential intensification of agriculture based on expert elicitation from land managers. We show that the effect of climate change on average winter phosphorus loads (predicted increase up to 30% by 2050s) will be limited only by large-scale agricultural changes (e.g., 20-80% reduction in phosphorus inputs). |
| Exploitation Route | The work has significant implications for policy makers and practitioners managing the landscape and the impact or agriculture on water quality because it shows that climate change is affecting the transfer of phosphorus from land to water. Please see here some of the findings http://landwaterblog.blogspot.com/2017/08/an-uncertain-future-major-agricultural.html and also I was invited to give a webinair to the US-EPA http://landwaterblog.blogspot.com/2018/08/us-environmental-protection-agency.html |
| Sectors | Agriculture, Food and Drink,Environment,Leisure Activities, including Sports, Recreation and Tourism |
| URL | http://nutcat2050.org.uk/ |
| Description | Other new papers are emerging in high profile Nature family journals and new funding has been attained. Other talks and engagement activities added. Findings are continuing to emerge in publication and presentation and have been made available for the scientific community and general public. Papers and spin off or related findings are still emergin into publication and added this year. The media coverage raised awareness of the impacts of heavy rainfall and flooding, with greater acceptance of the need for adaptation in farming and living practices. The stakeholder workshops (in all three National Demonstration Test Catchment regions), included farmers, farm managers and farm advisors, as well as project members. the workshops raised awareness of the possible climate change scenarios in different parts of the UK, and allowed discussion and two-way feedback on the relationships between farm management practices, water quality and running a profitable farm business. Part of the science approach in NUTCAT-2050 was presented at an Exeter Initiative on Science and Technology conference on food security, by P Falloon: http://www.exetersciencepark.co.uk/component/rseventspro/event/17-exist-conference-2014?Itemid=events The talk raised business, academic and other users awareness of the relationship between soil, agriculture, climate, land use and water quality, and discussed how state of the art climate projections being used in the project might affect these issues. A new book raising awareness on the subject "Phosphorus, Past and Future" has been published. In January 2022 the work featured in the Defra at the UK Agriculture Partnership Launch Event: Impacts of agriculture on water quality in the UK - challenges and solutions Royal Agricultural University, Cirencester |
| Sector | Agriculture, Food and Drink,Environment |
| Impact Types | Societal,Policy & public services |
| Description | Influence at UKAP Defra Policy Event with MPs and Cabinet Members |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Policy Influence Type | Participation in a guidance/advisory committee |
| Impact | Influence on Government behaviours for managing land and water quality |
| URL | https://youtu.be/hvbGMDfwm5g |
| Description | PI Haygarth contribution to Defra Soil Consultation |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Policy Influence Type | Contribution to a national consultation/review |
| Description | PI Haygarth membership of Defra Policy Group |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Policy Influence Type | Membership of a guideline committee |
| Description | EdenDTC Funding |
| Amount | £320,000 (GBP) |
| Organisation | Department For Environment, Food And Rural Affairs (DEFRA) |
| Sector | Public |
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Start | 04/2018 |
| End | 04/2019 |
| Title | Extension of Lattice Boltzmann methodology to study the transport of sediments and solutes by advection and diffusion in water'. |
| Description | Development of the Lattice Boltzmann method to solve the fractional advection-diffusion equation (FADE), an efficient model with similar accuracy to other numerical methods |
| Type Of Material | Improvements to research infrastructure |
| Provided To Others? | No |
| Impact | This opens a wide range of application of the FADE in hydrology and environmental engineering |
| Title | Extension of uncertainty analysis (limits of acceptability approach) to water quality data |
| Description | The Generalised Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) approach has been extended for use with water quality data by defining limits of acceptability for the model output |
| Type Of Material | Improvements to research infrastructure |
| Provided To Others? | No |
| Impact | The method allows a multi-model comparison of phosphorus transfer, including the uncertainties due to the model parameters and data input |
| Title | LBM-SWAT model for water quality |
| Description | The Lattice-Boltzmann model (LBM) has been modified to solve the advection-dispersion equation to water quality together with the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) output data. |
| Type Of Material | Improvements to research infrastructure |
| Provided To Others? | No |
| Impact | The method allows further study of in-stream phosphorus cycle |
| Title | A Global Database of Soil Plant Available Phosphorus |
| Description | Soil phosphorus drives food production that is needed to feed a growing global population. However, knowledge of plant available phosphorus stocks at a global scale is poor but needed to better match phosphorus fertiliser supply to crop demand. We collated, checked, converted, and filtered a database of c. 575,000 soil samples to c. 33,000 soil samples of soil Olsen phosphorus concentrations. These data represent the most up-to-date repository of freely available data for plant available phosphorus at a global scale. We used these data to derive a model (R2 = 0.54) of topsoil Olsen phosphorus concentrations that when combined with data on bulk density predicted the distribution and global stock of soil Olsen phosphorus. We expect that these data can be used to not only show where plant available P should be boosted, but also where it can be drawn down to make more efficient use of fertiliser phosphorus and to minimise likely phosphorus loss and degradation of water qualit |
| Type Of Material | Database/Collection of data |
| Year Produced | 2023 |
| Provided To Others? | Yes |
| Impact | A new first time dataset of soil Olsen phosphorus |
| URL | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-023-02022-4 |
| Title | Fortnightly nutrient sampling at six sites upstream and downstream of Morland outlet |
| Description | Fortnightly sampling of phosphorus, nitrogen and chloride in streamwater at all joining tributaries in Morland catchment and downstream to River Lyvennet. Used alongside discharge data this will allow determination of loads from different parts of the catchment, and also in-stream retention of phosphorus. |
| Type Of Material | Database/Collection of data |
| Provided To Others? | No |
| Impact | Collection has only just started (beginning of hydrological year 2014/15), no results or impacts yet |
| Title | Stream discharge at six sites upstream and downstream of Morland outlet |
| Description | Water level is being monitored at six sites at 15 minute resolution, with stage-discharge relationships being built up over a range of water levels |
| Type Of Material | Database/Collection of data |
| Provided To Others? | No |
| Impact | . |
| Description | Collaboration with Anglia Ruskin University |
| Organisation | Anglia Ruskin University |
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Sector | Academic/University |
| PI Contribution | We share the progress and results of the project with the partners |
| Collaborator Contribution | The partner provides many years of experience in monitoring and assessment of soil erosion and runoff in England and Wales |
| Impact | No outputs yet, although joint publications are expected |
| Start Year | 2013 |
| Description | Collaboration with Avon DTC |
| Organisation | Rothamsted Research |
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Sector | Academic/University |
| PI Contribution | We share progress and results of the project with the partners |
| Collaborator Contribution | The partner shares experience of high frequency monitoring of nutrients in the Avon DTC Project, and shares the data with NUTCAT2050. Avon DTC also allows NUTCAT 2050 to access the stakeholder network which has been developed. |
| Impact | No outputs yet, although joint publications are expected |
| Start Year | 2013 |
| Description | Collaboration with Eden Demonstration Test Catchment Project |
| Organisation | EdenDTC |
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Sector | Charity/Non Profit |
| PI Contribution | We share knowledge on catchment function, share results from additional phosphorus sampling and stream gauging |
| Collaborator Contribution | Eden DTC shares all data from their catchment monitoring: weather data, stream discharge and water quality data |
| Impact | . |
| Start Year | 2013 |
| Description | Collaboration with Eden Rivers Trust |
| Organisation | Eden Rivers Trust |
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Sector | Charity/Non Profit |
| PI Contribution | We provide evidence of diffuse pollution which Eden Rivers Trust can use to help farmers understand how to plan mitigation measures |
| Collaborator Contribution | Eden Rivers Trust has helped with gaining land access permissions for installing and maintaining equipment, and has been a vital link in contacting farmers for stakeholder workshops |
| Impact | Stakeholder workshop in Morland, Cumbria, jointly organised by NUTCAT and Eden Rivers Trust |
| Start Year | 2013 |
| Description | Collaboration with James Hutton Institute |
| Organisation | James Hutton Institute |
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Sector | Charity/Non Profit |
| PI Contribution | We share the progress and results of the research with the partners |
| Collaborator Contribution | The partner provides guidance and expertise on stakeholder engagement and catchment hydro-biogeochemical functioning, and resources in the form of catchment monitoring data |
| Impact | No outcomes yet, although joint publications are expected |
| Start Year | 2013 |
| Description | Collaboration with Wensum DTC |
| Organisation | University of East Anglia |
| Department | School of Environmental Sciences UEA |
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Sector | Academic/University |
| PI Contribution | We share progress and results of the project with the partners |
| Collaborator Contribution | The partner provides experience of high-frequency monitoring in an intensive arable catchment, and shares the Wensum DTC data with NUTCAT2050 in order to work together in a coordinated manner to help understand hydrological processes, phosphorus mobility and to influence policy |
| Impact | No outputs yet, although joint publications expected |
| Start Year | 2013 |
| Description | Article on Observer and Guardian Newspapers and Online |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
| Results and Impact | Intereviewed and quoted in paper |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2023 |
| URL | https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/mar/12/scientists-warn-of-phosphogeddon-fertiliser-shor... |
| Description | Audience with George Eustice MP, Secretary of State, Defra at the UK Agriculture Partnership Launch Event |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
| Results and Impact | Prof Phil Haygarth was an invited speaker and panellist with George Eustice MP, Secretary of State, Defra at the UK Agriculture Partnership Launch Event: Impacts of agriculture on water quality in the UK - challenges and solutions Royal Agricultural University, Cirencester 27 January 2022. The feedback received was: "Thank you again for taking part in yesterday's launch and such an excellent panel. I've already heard a lot of praise for panel 1. We've had a huge amount of positive feedback for the event so far - stakeholders who attended are extremely enthused. Also, numerous requests to join the next event. It has sparked a lot of discussion and thinking - and I have been told our Secretary of State and Ministers 'could not have been more' complimentary/ excited by the presentations, having come away full of ideas and wanting to hear more." - Valentina Hargrave | Devolution and International Team Lead | Future Farming and Countryside Programme | Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs | 2 Marsham Street, 28th Jan 2022 |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
| URL | https://youtu.be/hvbGMDfwm5g |
| Description | Avon DTC Stakeholder workshop, with NUTCAT session on land use/management changes under climate change |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | Regional |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Around 50 stakeholders attended a NUTCAT presentation on historic and future changes in climate in the Avon, and participated in discussion on possible land use and land management changes in the Avon in the future. Following the discussion, participants completed a questionnaire. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2015 |
| URL | http://nutcat2050.org.uk/news |
| Description | Biology Experience Day for local schools at Lancaster University |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an open day or visit at my research institution |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | Regional |
| Primary Audience | Schools |
| Results and Impact | 80 pupils (year 12 Biology Students) came to LEC and each group of approximately 10 students received a 10 minute 'hands-on' demonstration on our research on ' Diffuse Pollution in Agriculture' and one on 'Nutrient Cycling in ecosystems'. Feedback from students and teachers was very positive, showing that the year 12 Biology Students were deeply inspired by the research activities developed in LEC. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2014 |
| URL | http://www.lancaster.ac.uk/lec/about-us/supporting-schools-and-community/biology-experience-days/ |
| Description | Eden farmers Stakeholder workshop - has the weather changed the way you farm? |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | Regional |
| Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
| Results and Impact | 33 farmers and stakeholders attended a talk on historic weather changes in the Eden catchment, and provided feedback and discussion on several specific questions relating to weather-induced and non-weather-induced changes in farming in Cumbria. The workshop helped to build trust between the farming community and the scientists with sharing of knowledge and learning on both sides. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2014 |
| URL | http://nutcat2050.org.uk/news |
| Description | Effective Phosphorus Management BASIS Podcast |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A broadcast e.g. TV/radio/film/podcast (other than news/press) |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | In this month's episode of the BASIS Agronomy Matters Podcast, our Business Development Executive, Jade Prince hones in on effective phosphorus management as an essential part of producing high quality profitable crops whilst also protecting the wider environment and as this year's topic for the FACTS online assessment, phosphorus management is of particular interest to our FACTS Qualified Advisers. We have some great speakers who tell us more about phosphorus application, use efficiency and potential impacts on the environment. First, we have Tim Kerr, crop nutrition manager at Hutchinsons who speaks about the importance of phosphate for plant growth and building and protecting phosphate reserves in our soils. Our second speaker is Professor Phil Haygarth from the University of Lancaster, who talks about the risks and potential mitigation strategies for phosphates in the environment and finally we have Matt Taylor from the Biosolids assurance scheme who tells us a bit more about the contribution that biosolids can make to phosphate in soils as well as other benefits and potential concerns around biosolids use. Make sure you listen to the end to find out how to claim one BASIS CPD point via the members' area on the BASIS website. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
| URL | https://open.spotify.com/episode/5q6cUOiuptqx0JMYi1yzrB?si=341e400033894007 |
| Description | Enhancing food productivity in a changing climate? |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | In November 2018 I had the pleasure to be invited to talk at the 2018 Amarican Society of Agronomy and Crop Science Society of America joint meeting in Baltimore, USA. The session was entitled a Megaposium on 'Cross Cutting Issues on Environmental Policy' organized by Jeppe H. Kjaersgaard and my close colleague Doug Smith. When preparing the talk I was excited to have to think about integreated response of phosphorus and (less common for me....) nitrogen too. It was a useful experience and my conclusions were: Huge reductions in phosphorus inputs are required to maintain water quality - what does this mean for production? Nitrogen emissions contribute to climate change in the short and medium term, plus N emissions in turn respond to climate (it's complicated!) Phosphorus emissions are mostly a responder to changes in rainfall (climate effect is more long term?) We need to determine the interactions. Enhancing productivity and environmental quality in a changing climate is going to be a massive challenge in the future. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2018 |
| URL | http://landwaterblog.blogspot.com/2018/11/enhancing-productivity-in-changing.html |
| Description | Flooding, sediment and nutrient transport on BBC and ITV television and radio |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Media (as a channel to the public) |
| Results and Impact | Following unprecedented rainfall in NW England, Phil Haygarth was filmed by television and radio, including ITV Border and BBC 'Inside Out', and spoke about flooding and sediment and nutrient loss: 30.11.15 ITV Border 07.12.15 BBC NWT 08.12.15 BBC Radio 5 Live 04.01.16 ITV Border 11.01.16 BBC Radio 4 'Today' 13.01.16 BBC 1 'Inside Out' |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2015,2016 |
| Description | Geography Experience Day for local schools at Lancaster University |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an open day or visit at my research institution |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | Regional |
| Primary Audience | Postgraduate students |
| Results and Impact | 60 pupils (Year 12) attended for an Experience Day. Groups of 30 attended a 90 minute laboratory workshop investigating runoff, sediment and nutrient loss from soil boxes with different 'land use', with associated examples of ecological diversity from each 'land use' type |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2015 |
| URL | http://www.lancaster.ac.uk/lec/about-us/supporting-schools-and-community/ |
| Description | NUTCAT2050 on BBC Science News and other media channels |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Media (as a channel to the public) |
| Results and Impact | Following a press release on phosphorus transfer in storms and the likely increase in phosphorus transfer under climate change, Prof Phil Haygarth was contacted by Victoria Gill of BBC. Victoria filmed Phil in the Eden catchment talking about water quality in rivers under climate change. The film appeared on BBC Science News on 24 March 2014. The BBC article resulted in enquiries from other media channels and Prof Phil Haygarth, Prof Paul Withers and Dr Bob Evans all gave radio interviews, including Radio 4 Farming Today, Radio Lancashire, Radio Cumbria. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2014 |
| URL | http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-26682750 |
| Description | NUTCAT2050 project website |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A magazine, newsletter or online publication |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.) |
| Results and Impact | A project website was launched in November 2013, and updated regularly after that date. The website received an increased number of hits following the press release in March 2014 . |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2013,2014 |
| URL | http://nutcat2050.org.uk/ |
| Description | Past Present and Future Phosphorus Cycling: From the Mine to the Deep Sea |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | On 10-18th June 2018 I was invited to attend and talk at the 2018 ASLO (Association of Limnology and Oceanography) summer meeting in Victoria, Canada, called "Water Connects!". Specifically, I was asked to give a tutorial in a session Called "Past Present and Future Phosphorus Cycling: From the Mine to the Deep Sea" |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2018 |
| URL | http://landwaterblog.blogspot.com/2018/07/invited-phosphorus-tutorial-at-aslo.html |
| Description | Phosphorus future? |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Presentation of vision for the future of phosphorus, soil and water quality in a changing climate, joint with Prof Jim Elser of the University of Montana. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2019 |
| URL | https://twitter.com/merrinm/status/1082409234644357120 |
| Description | Podcast on Science for the Anthropocene |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A broadcast e.g. TV/radio/film/podcast (other than news/press) |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Podcast on phosphorus and climate change |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
| URL | https://open.spotify.com/episode/3I2bgqwKi4q3NmxvQkmGQs?si=TehsjpHWQIO63V3c8mtP_g |
| Description | US EPA Invited Webinair on Nutrients and Future Catchment Management |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
| Results and Impact | Live web webinair broadcast to US Policy Makers |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2018 |
| URL | http://landwaterblog.blogspot.com/2018/08/us-environmental-protection-agency.html |
| Description | USA Phosphorus Research Cordination Meeting Attendance and Conribution |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | The first part of the week was a scientist meeting in Washington DC, followed by a platform presentatin by the greoup to stakeholders invited from Washington DC |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2017 |
| URL | https://phosphorusalliance.org/files/2017/05/NSF_Report_Weintraub.pdf |
| Description | Workshop with stakeholders (Wensum DTC) |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | Regional |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Around 30 farmers and stakeholders from around the Wensum catchment attended a workshop including presentation of historic climate trends in the Wensum area and discussion of likely future land use and land management changes in the Wensum catchment. At the end, participants completed a questionnaire, which contributed to decisions on how to include land use and land management change in numerical modelling. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2016 |
| URL | http://nutcat2050.org.uk/ |