Assessing Risks of Investment in Groundwater Resources in Sub-Saharan Africa

Decision-makers in the developing and developed world are notoriously poor at considering the risk that an investment or intervention could fail to achieve its objectives. This is also true for groundwater development projects in African drylands. Social and environmental sustainability of groundwater refers to a fair distribution of this natural asset between users and across generations. Aquifers are one component of groundwater and require particularly careful management, particularly fossil aquifers, which do not replenish naturally. The risk is that current use of an aquifer will draw down on the water needs of future generations. To achieve sustainability, there is a need to properly assess any new water abstraction infrastructure, such as a pipeline to supply a town. The accuracy of such assessments is weakened by the fact that the current practice inadequately addresses uncertainties surrounding the impacts of increased groundwater use, particularly the impact of groundwater development on the aquifer and the people that relying upon it. Uncertainties around the impacts of groundwater development are particularly high for aquifers in dryland areas since information on the current geo-hydrological parameters and how these will evolve under future change is typically scarce. Thus, the proposed research will first develop a conceptual framework on how to address uncertainties around ground water development in data scarce areas. Second, it will use this to model the uncertainties around investments that significantly increase groundwater use. Third, the project aims to assess the social impacts of these increased water abstractions. To this end, it will assemble information, including the visions and perspectives of various stakeholders and groundwater users to support dialogue on how to achieve sustainable water use for Kenya's largest aquifer, the fossil Merti aquifer in arid northeastern Kenya. This aquifer provides water to the world's largest refugee camp, population 630,000, and may already be over-utilized. Furthermore, it feeds the Juba River, which runs through southern Somalia, the discharge of which is decreasing. The project will focus on plans -- already far advanced -- to increase abstractions from the Merti aquifer to supply drinking water to the city of Wajir. The initiation of a dialogue is complicated by scarce and unreliable data and lack of synthetic insight into the consequences of current and future use. Thus the challenge is to develop the information, which acknowledges uncertainties around the outcomes of the planned groundwater development to support a sustainable management approach in a data-scarce environment. The models that will be developed will assess the level of uncertainty and value of information of the basic geo-hydrological parameters. This value of information approach will serve as guidance for selection of key parameters to focus on for a follow up proposal to the next UPGro round with a view to supporting initiatives to manage the aquifer to achieve greater social sustainability including intergenerational equity.

The proposed research has the following beneficiaries and envisaged impacts:

1 - To investors in groundwater development the project will provide a method to assess the uncertainties and risks around investing in the development of groundwater resources. The approach will be equally interesting to investments in the developing and developed world, because uncertainties are high in both;
2 - To practitioners in groundwater engineering and impact assessment the method offers an innovative approach how to provide a best possible forecast of the impacts of groundwater development in data scarce and uncertain environments;
3 - To water management authorities responsible for the allocation of abstraction permits as the model allows assessment of the immediate and long term hydrological and social impacts;
4 - To M&E experts and managers of groundwater resources, because the value of information approach allows them to assess which variables to monitor and where to focus relatively greater effort in order to reduce uncertainties most efficiently
5 - Ultimately the project will have an impact on groundwater users across the African continent, because the models allow evaluation of the possible impact of investment and management decisions on the benefits that they derive from groundwater, with the potential such information holds to influence and affect the decisions ultimately made.
6 - Finally, the specific application of the thinking to the Merti aquifer will be of immense importance to, among others, aid agencies supporting the refugees in Dadaab; the government of Kenya, which seeks inter alia to provide for pastoralists and their livestock as well as providing water to a growing township, Wajir; and across the border, the government of Somalia and aid agencies seeking to restore agriculture and prevent further degradation of the fragile ecosystem.