Developing a drought narrative resource as a multi-stakeholder decision making utility in drought risk management
Lead Research Organisation:
NERC CEH (Up to 30.11.2019)
Department Name: Water Resources (Wallingford)
Abstract
This innovative interdisciplinary project aims to develop an easy-to-use, evidence-based resource which can be used in decision-making in drought risk management. To achieve this, we will bring together information from drought science and scenario-modelling (using mathematical models to forecast the impacts of drought) with stakeholder engagement and narrative storytelling. While previous drought impact studies have often focused on using mathematical modelling, this project is very different. The project will integrate arts, humanities and social science research methods, with hydrological, meteorological, agricultural and ecological science knowledge through multi-partner collaboration. Seven case study catchments (areas linked by a common water resource) in England, Wales and Scotland will be selected to reflect the hydrological, socio-economic and cultural contrasts in the UK. Study of drought impacts will take place at different scales - from small plot experiments to local catchment scale. Citizen science and stakeholder engagement with plot experiments in urban and rural areas will be used as stimuli for conversations about drought risk and its mitigation.
The project will: (i) investigate different stakeholder perceptions of when drought occurs and action is needed; (ii) examine how water level and temperature affect drought perception; (iii) explore the impact of policy decisions on drought management; (iv) consider water users' behaviours which lead to adverse drought impacts on people and ecosystems and; (v) evaluate water-use conflicts, synergies and trade-offs, drawing on previous drought experiences and community knowledge.
The project spans a range of sectors including water supply; health, business, agriculture/horticulture, built environment, extractive industries and ecosystem services, within 7 case-study catchments. Through a storytelling approach, scientists will exchange cutting edge science with different drought stakeholders, and these stakeholders will, in turn, exchange their knowledge. Stakeholders include those in: construction; gardeners and allotment holders; small and large businesses; local authorities; emergency planners; recreational water users; biodiversity managers; public health professionals - both physical and mental health; and local communities/public.
The stakeholder meetings will capture various data including:
- different stakeholder perceptions of drought and its causes
- local knowledge around drought onset and strategies for mitigation (e.g. attitudes to water saving, responses to reduced water availability)
- insights into how to live with drought and increase individual/community drought resilience
- the impact of alternating floods and droughts
The information will be shared within, and between, stakeholder groups in the case-studies and beyond using social media. This information will be analysed, and integrated with drought science to develop an innovative web-based decision-making utility. These data will feedback into the drought modelling and future scenario building with a view to exploring a variety of policy options. This will help ascertain present and future water resources availability, focusing on past, present and future drought periods across N-S and W-E climatic gradients. The project will be as far as possible be 'open science' - maintaining open, real-time access to research questions, data, results, methodologies, narratives, publications and other outputs via the project website, updated as the project progresses.
Project outputs will include: the decision-making support utility incorporating science-narrative resources; hydrological models for the 7 case-study catchments; a social media web-platform to share project resources; a database of species responses/management options to mitigate drought/post-drought recovery at different scales, and management guidelines on coping with drought/water scarcity at different scales.
The project will: (i) investigate different stakeholder perceptions of when drought occurs and action is needed; (ii) examine how water level and temperature affect drought perception; (iii) explore the impact of policy decisions on drought management; (iv) consider water users' behaviours which lead to adverse drought impacts on people and ecosystems and; (v) evaluate water-use conflicts, synergies and trade-offs, drawing on previous drought experiences and community knowledge.
The project spans a range of sectors including water supply; health, business, agriculture/horticulture, built environment, extractive industries and ecosystem services, within 7 case-study catchments. Through a storytelling approach, scientists will exchange cutting edge science with different drought stakeholders, and these stakeholders will, in turn, exchange their knowledge. Stakeholders include those in: construction; gardeners and allotment holders; small and large businesses; local authorities; emergency planners; recreational water users; biodiversity managers; public health professionals - both physical and mental health; and local communities/public.
The stakeholder meetings will capture various data including:
- different stakeholder perceptions of drought and its causes
- local knowledge around drought onset and strategies for mitigation (e.g. attitudes to water saving, responses to reduced water availability)
- insights into how to live with drought and increase individual/community drought resilience
- the impact of alternating floods and droughts
The information will be shared within, and between, stakeholder groups in the case-studies and beyond using social media. This information will be analysed, and integrated with drought science to develop an innovative web-based decision-making utility. These data will feedback into the drought modelling and future scenario building with a view to exploring a variety of policy options. This will help ascertain present and future water resources availability, focusing on past, present and future drought periods across N-S and W-E climatic gradients. The project will be as far as possible be 'open science' - maintaining open, real-time access to research questions, data, results, methodologies, narratives, publications and other outputs via the project website, updated as the project progresses.
Project outputs will include: the decision-making support utility incorporating science-narrative resources; hydrological models for the 7 case-study catchments; a social media web-platform to share project resources; a database of species responses/management options to mitigate drought/post-drought recovery at different scales, and management guidelines on coping with drought/water scarcity at different scales.
Planned Impact
This research will have high impact in theoretical, policy and practical terms in local/national/international contexts. In policy terms, drought is now one of the major risks facing the UK. The project aims to mitigate drought impacts, and through a new innovative multi-stakeholder decision-making utility, to make different stakeholders more resilient to drought risk and drought events.
The project's impact strategy is driven and strengthened by the engaged nature of the research process. Key target groups/beneficiaries within, and beyond, those immediately engaged within the project have been identified. These include: stakeholders working at local and regional levels in different domains (health and wellbeing, urban design/built environment, agriculture/horticulture, utilities, government, business, tourism and ecosystem services) to manage the impacts of drought and water scarcity in the 7 case-study catchments; educational organisations (formal/informal); wider inter-professional groups in the UK with interests/concerns in drought risk management/mitigation of impacts, including communities and the general public.
Developing organisational stakeholders and communities that are resilient to living with drought risk and water scarcity, and resilient to future drought is of the highest priority. A multi-stakeholder shared recognition of drought risk, and a developing attitude of coping/living with flood events, are vital components of drought risk planning/resilience. This research will make a significant contribution to drought policy discourses and practices in the way it brings different stakeholder drought narratives into thinking about and developing drought resilience.
The interdisciplinary and narrative based research methods are designed to enhance and dovetail with the impact strategy giving opportunities for new and innovative approaches to achieving impact. This integrates: how mesocosms and social media tools can engage new/different audiences, and how the inclusion of lay voices and narrative data might incentivise the policy process. Policy makers have to balance all these competing interests - so, rather than handing policymakers the science, the project supplies 'the whole data package'. For further detail on beneficiaries, benefits and methods, see the Pathways to impact document. These include:
- Project partners and stakeholders working at local and regional levels in different domains (water supply, health and wellbeing, urban design/built environment, agriculture/forestry, government, business, tourism and ecosystem services) and the policy/governance communities (Environment Agency, SEPA, National Resources Wales and local/regional/national levels)
- General public and communities (e.g. Local Resilience Forums with responsibilities for community lead adaptation planning)
- Scientists and artists working as part of different professional organisations (e.g. environmental regulators/wildlife conservation)
- Individuals and collectives of creative practitioners and cultural activists whose work focuses on related environmental and sustainability issues
- Educational organisations (schools, further/higher education but also less formal learning).
The case-study based research design will identify 7 catchments with a wide range of physical/socio-economic-cultural characteristics that will form a platform for wider stakeholder engagement across the UK. The project will have an integrated dissemination/impact strategy that targets different stakeholders for awareness, information and action for behaviour change. Impact will be delivered by on-going dialogue/exchange; a culture of co-production of knowledge, and working with key organisational gatekeepers/ communities in catchments and beyond. Impact strategies will include website/social media; open access research outputs for end users; participatory activities (seminars, workshops, conference) and a science-storytelling e-workbook for schools.
The project's impact strategy is driven and strengthened by the engaged nature of the research process. Key target groups/beneficiaries within, and beyond, those immediately engaged within the project have been identified. These include: stakeholders working at local and regional levels in different domains (health and wellbeing, urban design/built environment, agriculture/horticulture, utilities, government, business, tourism and ecosystem services) to manage the impacts of drought and water scarcity in the 7 case-study catchments; educational organisations (formal/informal); wider inter-professional groups in the UK with interests/concerns in drought risk management/mitigation of impacts, including communities and the general public.
Developing organisational stakeholders and communities that are resilient to living with drought risk and water scarcity, and resilient to future drought is of the highest priority. A multi-stakeholder shared recognition of drought risk, and a developing attitude of coping/living with flood events, are vital components of drought risk planning/resilience. This research will make a significant contribution to drought policy discourses and practices in the way it brings different stakeholder drought narratives into thinking about and developing drought resilience.
The interdisciplinary and narrative based research methods are designed to enhance and dovetail with the impact strategy giving opportunities for new and innovative approaches to achieving impact. This integrates: how mesocosms and social media tools can engage new/different audiences, and how the inclusion of lay voices and narrative data might incentivise the policy process. Policy makers have to balance all these competing interests - so, rather than handing policymakers the science, the project supplies 'the whole data package'. For further detail on beneficiaries, benefits and methods, see the Pathways to impact document. These include:
- Project partners and stakeholders working at local and regional levels in different domains (water supply, health and wellbeing, urban design/built environment, agriculture/forestry, government, business, tourism and ecosystem services) and the policy/governance communities (Environment Agency, SEPA, National Resources Wales and local/regional/national levels)
- General public and communities (e.g. Local Resilience Forums with responsibilities for community lead adaptation planning)
- Scientists and artists working as part of different professional organisations (e.g. environmental regulators/wildlife conservation)
- Individuals and collectives of creative practitioners and cultural activists whose work focuses on related environmental and sustainability issues
- Educational organisations (schools, further/higher education but also less formal learning).
The case-study based research design will identify 7 catchments with a wide range of physical/socio-economic-cultural characteristics that will form a platform for wider stakeholder engagement across the UK. The project will have an integrated dissemination/impact strategy that targets different stakeholders for awareness, information and action for behaviour change. Impact will be delivered by on-going dialogue/exchange; a culture of co-production of knowledge, and working with key organisational gatekeepers/ communities in catchments and beyond. Impact strategies will include website/social media; open access research outputs for end users; participatory activities (seminars, workshops, conference) and a science-storytelling e-workbook for schools.
Publications
McEwen; L
(2019)
(Un)natural drought
in Environmental Scientist - Journal of the Institution of Environmental Sciences
Ragab R
(2020)
Application of Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) at different temporal scales to reduce the uncertainty level in modelled river flows
in Hydrological Sciences Journal
McEwen L
(2022)
Building local capacity for managing environmental risk: a transferable framework for participatory, place-based, narrative-science knowledge exchange
in Sustainability Science
Afzal M
(2020)
How do climate and land use changes affect the water cycle? Modelling study including future drought events prediction using reliable drought indices
in Irrigation and Drainage
Afzal M
(2020)
Impact of the Future Climate and Land Use Changes on the Hydrology and Water Resources in South East England, UK.
in American Journal of Water Resources
Afzal M
(2021)
Modelling study to quantify the impact of future climate and land use changes on water resources availability at catchment scale
in Journal of Water and Climate Change
McEwen L
(2021)
Science-Narrative Explorations of "Drought Thresholds" in the Maritime Eden Catchment, Scotland: Implications for Local Drought Risk Management
in Frontiers in Environmental Science
| Title | Animation of DiCaSM model Output for Stakeholders |
| Description | For engagement purpose, animation plots of model results (stream flow, recharge, evaporation, soil moisture deficit, wetness index, etc.) have been successful in engaging participants in DRY project meetings. A code has been added to the DiCaSM model and a supporting software to capture the model animation plots and placing them into presentation were integrated. |
| Type Of Art | Film/Video/Animation |
| Year Produced | 2017 |
| Impact | The animation plots of model results (stream flow, recharge, evaporation, soil moisture deficit, wetness index, etc.) have been successful in engaging participants in DRY project meetings. A comparison of dry versus wet year side by side in animation plots sent a clear message to audiences and triggered good feedback and fruitful discussion. |
| Description | 1. Model development A distributed catchment scale model DiCaSM has been developed to represent different hydrological features (including reservoirs) in each catchment, accommodate the climate change data and include uncertainty analysis. The model was able to quantify the river flows and ground water recharge within 6 catchments, Eden, Don, Pang, Frome, Fowey and Ebbw. Those catchments extend from north to south and from east to west of the UK, representing rainfall and temperature gradient. The model calibration and validation results showed a good agreement between the observed the simulated flow with high overall model efficiency values for the 52 years study period (1961-2012). In addition to the stream flow, the DiCaSM model identified all historical drought events such as those of 1970s, 1990s and 2000's. using the drought indices: Reconnaissance Drought Index, RDI, Soil Moisture Deficit, SMD and Wetness Index, WI. 2. Climate Change Impact on water resources The Climate change scenarios under the UKCP09 projected more rain in winter and reduced rain in summer. However, the increased level in winter rain did not produce a similar increase level in the stream flow or ground water recharge due to the increase in temperature and subsequently increase in evapotranspiration, soil moisture deficit which in turn reduce water available for stream flow and groundwater recharge. In general, the projection of the climate change scenario is a decreases in summer river flows, groundwater recharge and increases in winter river flows and groundwater recharge with time and with increasing emissions levels. Also, soil moisture deficit, SMD increasing in all seasons, with emissions and time period; modest winter SMD projected. The climate change scenarios up to 2099 indicated that, the severity of the drought events significantly increased over time and the high emission scenario for the second half of 2080's projected more frequent drought events likely to take place in all catchments. Climate change projection indicated that. all the applied drought indices (SMD, WI, and RDI) identified an increase in the severity of the drought under future climatic change scenarios. Under high emission scenarios, the severity was higher as this severity was associated with the increasing temperature and subsequently increasing water losses by evapotranspiration, thus reducing soil moisture availability, surface runoff to streams and recharge to groundwater. 3. Developing Drought Indicators A more accurate drought Index (Reconnaissance Drought Index, RDI adjusted) has been developed. It is based on actual values of net rainfall (total rain minus intercepted rain by land cover) and actual evapotranspiration instead of the commonly used index which is based on potential values. Application of a wider range of drought indices could be used to identify different types of droughts. For example, in agriculture, when soil moisture deficit, SMD or Wetness Index, WI of the root zone, reach a critical level, crops will require irrigation, particularly during the summer months. This will require reliable water supplies to secure adequate yield. The WI value, if close to 1, would indicate a wet catchment with a possible runoff generation during the next rainfall event, therefore, it is a help to reservoir managers to know the WI in real time. RDI would be helpful for short and long-term planning by water authorities and water companies. Therefore, the findings from the modelling work could be used to review the future surface water abstraction regulations to be in line with the water resources availability as predicted by the hydrological models and in possible planning of building new water infrastructure to increase the water storage to meet future water demand. 4. Land use change The hypothetical changes in land use indicated that, increasing broad leaf woodland area would reduce river flows and groundwater recharge as well as increase evapotranspiration Increasing heather or grass or crops areas replacing trees would increase river flows, groundwater recharge and reduce evapotranspiration. 5. Impact of Climate Change versus Land Use change on water resources The results of the studied catchments indicated that the impact of climate change on water resources was greater than the impact of land use changes on water resources. 6. The Uncertainty analysis of river flow prediction Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation, GLUE was implemented in the DiCaSM model. The calculation of the containment ratio of the observed stream flow within the simulated stream flow uncertainty bounds (envelope of 5 and 95% likelihood-weighted quantiles), indicated that the model captures above 70% of the observed river flow quite well (i.e. more than 70% observed values are included in the 5%-95% envelope). This gives confidence in model stream flow prediction. 7. Identifying the gap between future water demand versus projected future water supply Future water supply/availability as calculated from the hydrological model when compared with future projected water demand obtained from the local authorities, indicated that in all catchments apart from Eden in Scotland, there will be a gap between future water supply and future water demand and that gap is widening over time up to 2099 if water demand is not sustainably managed and controlled. |
| Exploitation Route | Will lead to better understanding and identification of the occurrence of the drought and severity of the drought now and in the future and drought impact on water resources availability. The latter will help water authorities to derive a plan that takes into account the drought events and how to sustainably manage the water resources now and in the future. |
| Sectors | Agriculture, Food and Drink,Chemicals,Communities and Social Services/Policy,Construction,Creative Economy,Digital/Communication/Information Technologies (including Software),Education,Energy,Environment,Healthcare,Leisure Activities, including Sports, Recreation and Tourism,Manufacturing, including Industrial Biotechology,Culture, Heritage, Museums and Collections,Pharmaceuticals and Medical Biotechnology,Transport |
| URL | http://dryproject.co.uk/ |
| Description | CEH has set up an ecological experiment at two sites in each river catchment. On each site there are 15 plots called 'mesocosms', which are used to measure the effects of drought on grassland plants and insects and will be scaled-up to generate catchment-level information. At each site, 12 mesocosms have roofs which intercept 50% of rainfall and simulate drought. 6 have roofs which allow rain through (to monitor the influence of the frame on plant growth) and 12 have no roof or frame ('controls' which allow us to compare plant growth in the absence of drought). The experiment was set up in autumn 2015 and citizen science data collection began in February 2016. Volunteering summary ? Since the start of 2016 eighteen citizen scientist volunteers have contributed over 160 hours of their time collecting data at the Simms Hill site in the Frome catchment. ? Citizen scientist volunteers visited several times a month during 2016, with weekly visits during the summer. ? They collected data on plant height, flowering dates and presence of pollinators, worked in the lab, helped with site maintenance and recorded their digital stories. Preliminary results were published as two pages flyer "The DRY Project Citizen Science Summary for 2016 (P. Ramirez) 25.1.2017 " http://dryproject.co.uk/ |
| First Year Of Impact | 2016 |
| Sector | Communities and Social Services/Policy,Creative Economy,Education,Environment,Healthcare |
| Impact Types | Societal,Policy & public services |
| Title | DiCaSM input databases for 7 catchments: Bevils Lean, Fowey, Don, Eden, Frome, Ebbw and Pang |
| Description | Established 7 databases for the 7 study catchments to include for each 1km grid square and for 1961-2012 period, the following: 1. Soil types and hydraulic properties within each 1km grid square 2. Land cover distribution within each 1km grid square 3. Rainfall distribution 4. Meteorological distributed data (wind speed, temperature, relative humidity, radiation, Vapour pressure) 5. Land cover parameters 6. Elevation 7. Observed stream flows and stream geometry 8. Limited data for some catchments on abstraction and discharge into rivers. The data were quality controlled then tested using the Distributed Catchment Scale hydrological Model, DiCaSM. |
| Type Of Material | Database/Collection of data |
| Year Produced | 2016 |
| Provided To Others? | No |
| Impact | The databases were used as input to the DiCaSM model. The model results indicated that between 1961 and 2012 , the 7 catchments were subjected to a number of drought events. This is largely based on the model time series of rainfall, stream flows and evaporation supported by observations. Excellent hydrological modelling work took place using such data basis. Three catchments (Fowey, Ebbw and Bevills Leam) modelling work have been completed and the remaining four are underway. The modelling work evaluated the surface water and ground water availability during drought periods and successfully identified the drought years. |
| URL | http://dryproject.co.uk/ |
| Title | DiCaSM output databases for 6 catchments: Fowey, Don, Eden, Frome, Ebbw and Pang |
| Description | DiCaSM model results are now saved in results SQL databases. This includes results of 1961-2012 period, baseline 1961-1991 period, climate change scenario periods of 2010-2039, 2040-2069, 2070-2099 periods (each period has 3 emission level scenarios, high, medium & low) using UKCP09 scenarios of Joint Probability and weather generator. . |
| Type Of Material | Database/Collection of data |
| Year Produced | 2018 |
| Provided To Others? | No |
| Impact | The database will help identifying the possible future Drought frequency for different future years and under different emission scenarios as well as the magnitude of the change in surface and groundwater resources in each study catchment. These important information will help water resources managers and policy makers to develop suitable management schemes for water use by different sectors. . |
| Title | SQL Input databases for 6 UK catchments established |
| Description | SQL databases for Don, Fowey, Pang, Frome, Ebbw and Eden catchments were created to include 52 years of data per catchment:: Meteorological data , rainfall, river flow, land cover, soil cover, Elevation , river network, reservoirs, wetlands and water bodies such as lakes. |
| Type Of Material | Data handling & control |
| Year Produced | 2018 |
| Provided To Others? | Yes |
| Impact | Enabled the project to reproduce the historical drought events such as those of 1976, 1990's and 2012 which gained the confidence of the stakeholders in the data used and the model prediction for future possible drought events. |
| Title | The Hydrological Distributed Catchment Scale Model, DiCaSM |
| Description | The Distributed Catchment Scale model, DiCaSM, is physically based model, distributed (default 1km by 1km grid squares), calculates the hydrological cycle elements: Evaporation, plant transpiration, runoff, recharge, infiltration, stream flow, soil moisture and plant growth. Recently the model has been adapted to the 7 study catchments by: 1.Adding two options to calculate base flow 2.Accounting for abstractions, irrigation and discharges from other sources such as treated wastewater 3.Using SQL server instead of Microsoft Access 4.Adding fast calibration option 5.Adding more figure plotting facility e.g. base flow 6.Adding two extra "Goodness of fit parameters" to the classical Nash Sutcliffe Efficiency, NSE namely the coefficient of determination, R2 and the NSE based on logarithmic values of the observed and simulated stream flows 7. Adding monthly climate change factors to the model and creating a separate tab for climate change. |
| Type Of Material | Computer model/algorithm |
| Provided To Others? | No |
| Impact | Preliminary results of the DiCaSM model results have been presented to the Local Advisory Group (LAG) in each catchment, discussed and the feedback was great. the LAG is composed of stakeholders and includes the regional water company, the local Environment Agency, EA , the local representative of the National Farmers Union, NFU, Drought and Flood forums, Environmental group, small businesses and local schools. Every 6 months, a LAG meeting is held locally at the catchment and the modelling results are presented to the LAG's of the 7 catchments: Bevils Lean, Fowey, Don, Eden, Frome, Ebbw and Pang. The modelling results so far have been well received, stimulated discussions and suggestions. Excellent impact so far. The Hydrological modelling of Fowey, Bevills Leam and Ebbw catchments have been completed and these three catchments are now running with UKCP09 climate change future scenarios. |
| URL | http://dryproject.co.uk/ |
| Description | Citizen Science and MSc student projects in collaboration with UWE |
| Organisation | University of the West of England |
| Department | Department of Nursing and Midwifery |
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Sector | Hospitals |
| PI Contribution | CEH has set up an ecological experiment at two sites in each river catchment. On each site there are 15 plots called 'mesocosms', which are used to measure the effects of drought on grassland plants and insects and will be scaled-up to generate catchment-level information. At each site, 12 mesocosms have roofs which intercept 50% of rainfall and simulate drought. 6 have roofs which allow rain through (to monitor the influence of the frame on plant growth) and 12 have no roof or frame ('controls' which allow us to compare plant growth in the absence of drought). The experiment was set up in autumn 2015 and citizen science data collection began in February 2016. |
| Collaborator Contribution | Volunteering summary ? Since the start of 2016 eighteen citizen scientist volunteers have contributed over 160 hours of their time collecting data at the Simms Hill site in the Frome catchment. ? Citizen scientist volunteers visited several times a month during 2016, with weekly visits during the summer. ? They collected data on plant height, flowering dates and presence of pollinators, worked in the lab, helped with site maintenance and recorded their digital stories MSc student of UWE are carrying out research projects at the Bristol sites using the facilities of CEH. Good partnership and cooperation practice. |
| Impact | A flyer (2 pages) summarizing the preliminary results of the Citizen Science volunteers was produced and made available at the DRY project web site. The title of the Flyer is: The DRY Project Citizen Science Summary for 2016 (P. Ramirez) 25.1.2017 |
| Start Year | 2015 |
| Title | Code for uncertainty Analysis |
| Description | Code written in R language to estimate the uncertainty level in the stream flow produced by the hydrological model DiCaSM. |
| Type Of Technology | Software |
| Year Produced | 2018 |
| Impact | The stake holders gained confidence in stream flow results when the uncertainty level shown to be low as indicated by a number of uncertainty level indicators. |
| Title | IHMS-Integrated Hydrological Modelling System. |
| Description | The Integrated Hydrological Modelling System (IHMS) has been developed to study the impact of changes in climate, land use and water management on groundwater and seawater intrusion (SWI) into coastal areas. The system represents the combination of three models, which can, if required, be run separately. It has been designed to assess the combined impact of climate, land use and groundwater abstraction changes on river, drainage and groundwater flows, groundwater levels and, where appropriate, SWI. The approach is interdisciplinary and reflects an integrated water management approach. The system comprises three packages: the Distributed Catchment Scale Model, DiCaSM, MODFLOW and SWI models. In addition to estimating all water balance components, DiCaSM, produces the recharge data that are used as input to the groundwater flow model of the US Geological Survey, MODFLOW. The latter subsequently generates the head distribution and groundwater flows that are used as input to the SWI model. Thus, any changes in land use, rainfall, water management, abstraction, etc. at the surface are first handled by DiCaSM, then by MODFLOW and finally by the SWI. The three models operate at different spatial and temporal scales and a facility (interface utilities between models) to aggregate/disaggregate input/output data to meet a desired spatial and temporal scale was developed allowing smooth and easy communication between the three models. MODFLOW and SWI are in the public domain. DiCaSM, has been developed for unsaturated zone at Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, CEH and equally important, is the interfacing utilities between the three models. DiCaSM simulates a number of hydrological processes: rainfall interception, evapotranspiration, surface runoff, infiltration, soil water movement in the root zone, plant water uptake, crop growth, stream flow and groundwater recharge. Input requirements include distributed data sets of rainfall, climate data, land use, soil types and elevation. The model produces distributed and time series output of all water balance components including potential evapotranspiration, actual evapotranspiration, rainfall interception, infiltration, plant water uptake, transpiration, soil water content, soil moisture (SM) deficit, groundwater recharge rate, stream flow and surface runoff. The first version was released in 2010 ( Ragab and Bromley, 2010) but under the Dry project, it has been subjected to further developments that included: 1. Adding two options to calculate base flow 2. Accounting for abstractions, irrigation and discharges from other sources such as treated wastewater 3. Using SQL server instead of Microsoft Access 4. Adding fast calibration option 6. Adding more figure plotting facility e.g. base flow 7. Adding two extra "Goodness of fit parameters" to the classical Nash Sutcliffe Efficiency, NSE namely the coefficient of determination, R2 and the NSE based on logarithmic values of the observed and simulated stream flows 8. Adding a special tab for monthly climate change factors (rainfall, temperature, radiation, wind speed, vapor pressure) |
| Type Of Technology | Software |
| Year Produced | 2017 |
| Impact | The early version of 2010 has been applied on the Pang catchment in the UK and on other catchments in Cyprus, Italy and Brazil to study the impact of climate change and land use changes on water resources. The studies highlighted the gap between supply and demand in those catchments up to 2050. Also quantified the possible impact of climate change on water resources. Particular interest was given to impact of changing land use to account for more durum wheat areas in Italy, use of Sugar Cane as biofuel in Brazil on water resources. The results were published and communicated by the National Researchers to their authorities in those countries for actions. More details can be found at: Ragab et al. 2010, D'Agostino et al. 2010, Montenegro and Ragab 2010, Montenegro and Ragab 2011. |
| URL | http://dryproject.co.uk/ |
| Title | IHMS-Integrated Hydrological Modelling System. (2018) with added in Climate Change Scenarios and Uncertainty Analysis. |
| Description | The early version dedicated for the Hydrological processes at catchment scale (2015-2017) did not include a code for sophisticated climate change scenarios or uncertainty analysis of model stream flows In late 2017- early 2018, a code to help selecting the relevant flows out of numerous number of iterations for the Uncertainty level of model results calculation by the GLUE methodology "Generalised Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation". This included setting up a threshold value of Nash Sutcliff Efficiency factor above which the model will keep the results of the relevant iteration and discard those below the threshold. In late 2017- early 2018, a code to allow the model to use the Climate change scenarios and data generated by the UKCP09 Weather Generator.. This includes runs of 100's of realization input files of climate change scenarios (three , 30 years periods: 2020's (2010-2039), 2050's (2040-2069), 2080's (2070-2099) and three emission scenarios (high, medium & low) for each period. to study the climate changes impact on catchment hydrology using the 1961-1990 as a baseline. Model software was adapted to run 900 input files per catchment and record 900 output files. |
| Type Of Technology | Software |
| Year Produced | 2018 |
| Impact | The current version 2018 has now two new applications: Uncertainty level of model results calculation by the GLUE methodology "Generalised Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation". A second feature is to allow the model to use the Climate change scenarios and data generated by the UKCP09 Weather Generator. These new features are important for decision makers and water resources planners. |
| Title | Improved Distributed Hydrological Catchment Scale Model, DiCaSM |
| Description | The software is designed to model the catchment water balance elements (Evaporation, runoff, ground water recharge, river flows, soil moisture, water uptake by plants, infiltration, rainfall interception by the land cover). Also allows the user to simulate the impact of future climate and land use change on water resources. In addition the model predicts future droughts or flood events as well as produce an array of drought indicators such as river flows, recharge to aquifers and drought Indices (wetness Index, Soil moisture deficit, SMD, Standardized Precipitation Index, SPI, Reconnaissance Drought Index, RDI). In addition, the model runs with a new application to quantify the uncertainty level in model results. |
| Type Of Technology | Software |
| Year Produced | 2019 |
| Impact | Some stakeholders showed interest in adopting this tool. |
| Description | A green and pleasant land: (Jill Thompson, Sarah Ayling and Nevil Quinn). Presentation at DRY (Drought Risk and You) Final Conference, University of West of England, Bristol, UK |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Share methodology and findings on grassland drought from DRY research Most significant outcome/impact: Dissemination of research to wider than academic audience |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2019 |
| Description | Application of hydrological models to assess the impact of climate and land use changes using Don an urbanized catchment in Sheffield area of England, UK (Afzal, M and Ragab, R) . Presentation at "Urban River Flood and Restoration" School of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering, Wuhan University, China |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Share methodology and findings from DRY research Most significant outcome/impact: Wider application of the physical based hydrological model to study flood risk |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2019 |
| URL | http://blogs.nottingham.ac.uk/geography/2019/05/28/researcher-links-workshop-china-august-2019/ |
| Description | Bevills Leam Catchment Local Advisory Group, LAG Drought science update |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | Regional |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Update on progress with drought risk modelling, with opportunities to co-develop methodology via feedback on potential drought impact indices and future climate, land use and water management scenarios.Most significant outcome/impact: Feedback to ensure the impact indices and scenarios are locally relevant. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2015,2016,2017 |
| Description | Bevills Leam catchment Local Advisory Group, LAG meeting - Drought Risk Scenario Modelling |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | Regional |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Share land use, climate change and catchment hydrological management scenario results from the DRY drought risk modelling, with opportunities to interactively explore specific stakeholder areas of interest and provide accessible summaries of outputs for the non-technical to improve drought risk and drought mitigation communication methodologies. Most significant outcome/impact: Improved strategies to mitigate drought risk and a broader understanding of the multifaceted interlinked nature of drought risk and mitigation |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2019 |
| Description | British Innovation and Drought Solution meeting with South Africa Government Officials, London |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
| Results and Impact | presenting DRY project and its results to the South Africa Minister of Water Resources and his Team in a meeting hosted by the Foreign and Commonwealth Office, Westminster, London. Regional Minister Meeting - British Innovation and Drought Solution. Most significant outcome/impact: Possible research and capacity building collaboration between UK and South Africa |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2017 |
| Description | Citizen Science vegetation assessment Eden Catchment |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an open day or visit at my research institution |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | Local |
| Primary Audience | Supporters |
| Results and Impact | Training in vegetation assessment and assessment of grassland experiments. Most significant outcome/impact: Development of skills and experience of field work. Opportunities for discussion of drought and information exchange. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2017 |
| Description | Co-producing local drought impact indices - linking scenario-ing to the catchment (McEwen, L. and Blake, J.R.) |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Description, purpose, outputs impacts: Share methodology and findings from DRY research Most significant outcome/impact: Improved strategies to communicate and mitigate drought |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2019 |
| Description | Conference on water resources management under climate change, Luxor Egypt |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | presenting DRY project and its results with particular focus on the impact of climate change scenarios of UKCP09 on water resources availability up to 2099. Most significant outcome/impact: Possible research and capacity building collaboration between UK and Egypt. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2018 |
| Description | Don Catchment Local Advisory Group, LAG Drought science update, Sheffield |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | Regional |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Update on progress with drought risk modelling, with opportunities to co-develop methodology via feedback on potential drought impact indices and future climate, land use and water management scenarios. Most significant outcome/impact: Feedback from stakeholders to ensure the impact indices and scenarios are locally relevant |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2019 |
| Description | Don Catchment Local Advisory Group, LAG Drought science update, Sheffield |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | Regional |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Update on progress with drought risk modelling, with opportunities to co-develop methodology via feedback on potential drought impact indices and future climate, land use and water management scenarios. Most significant outcome/impact: Feedback from stakeholders to ensure the impact indices and scenarios are locally relevant |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2015,2016,2017 |
| Description | Don Catchment Science day |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an open day or visit at my research institution |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | Regional |
| Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
| Results and Impact | Discussion of drought risk and local narratives on drought in the Don catchment. Demonstration of grassland drought experiments. Reservoir walk and demonstration of grassland mesocosms. Most significant outcome/impact: Information exchange on local drought issues with diverse stakeholders. Contributing to the development of songs and narratives for communication exchange. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2017 |
| Description | Drought Risk Scenario Modelling Stakeholders Competency Group [SCG meeting], Bristol UK |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Present and debate the drought risk modelling, with opportunities to improve methodology via feedback from the national stakeholders. National stakeholders included water companies, Environment Agency, National Farmers Union, National River Trust and academics. Most significant outcome/impact: Approval of the the methodologies and Feedback to improve drought risk results communication |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2018 |
| Description | Drought Risk Scenario Modelling [Stakeholders Competency Group, SCG meeting] |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
| Results and Impact | Update on progress with drought risk modelling, with opportunities to co-develop methodology via feedback on improved visualisation of drought risk modelling outputs as an aid to improved communication. Most significant outcome/impact: Feedback to improve drought risk communication |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2015,2016,2017 |
| Description | Drought Risk Show case, Birmingham |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Presenting the modelling results to stakeholders as well as to a wider audiences including academics, Students, and other professional groups.Presenting drought risk modelling, with opportunities to co-develop methodology via feedback on improved visualization of drought risk modelling outputs as an aid to improved communication. Attended by National Professional practitioners, Policy Makers, Academics, Students, Environment Agency, Farmers Union, water Companies, Universities, and more. Most significant outcome/impact: Feedback to improve drought risk communication. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2018 |
| Description | Drought Risk and Farming in the UK - Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, CEH - Wallingford |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | Regional |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Brief farmers from Berkshire and Oxfordshire on possible future climate change and possible occurrence of drought. Drought indicators and possible strategies to combat drought such as the use and reuse of non-conventional water resources e.g. treated waste water, roof top water, fish farming waste water, etc.), selection of drought tolerant crops such as quinoa, Lucerne and barley, communication. Most significant outcome/impact: Feedback to improve drought risk communication with farming community |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2018 |
| Description | Drought in the Fowey catchment: Past, Present and Future [Environment Group Workshop] |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | Regional |
| Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
| Results and Impact | Presented historic and potential future drought risk in the Fowey catchment, Cornwall, including hydrological model development and climate and land use scenario modelling. Stimulus for narrative public engagement. Publicising project locally and seeking feedback. Most significant outcome/impact: Lead to improvements to public engagement strategy to develop 'bite-sized' science as part of DRY. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2017 |
| Description | Drought project presentation at Freshwater Ecoservices Workshop organised by British Council, in S Florianopolis Southern Brazil Santa Catarina State, Brazil |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Presentation based on DiCaSM model results to show the impacts of the land use practices on the hydrology, this activity provided an opportunity of research collaboration with the researchers from different Universities of Brazil and the UK. Most significant outcome/impact: Collaboration and publicizing DRY project and CEH models internationally |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2019 |
| Description | Ebbw Catchment Local Advisory Group,LAG Drought science update, Ebbw valley, Wales |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | Regional |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Update on progress with drought risk modelling, with opportunities to co-develop methodology via feedback on potential drought impact indices and future climate, land use and water management scenarios. Most significant outcome/impact: Feedback from stakeholders to ensure the impact indices and scenarios are locally relevant. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2015,2016,2017 |
| Description | Ebbw catchment Local Advisory Group, LAG meeting - Drought science update, Ebbw valley, Wales |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | Regional |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Update on progress with drought risk modelling, with opportunities to co-develop methodology via feedback on potential drought impact indices and future climate, land use and water management scenarios. Local stakeholders, academics from DRY consortium, Welsh water, EA, Council Environment Officers. Feedback from stakeholders to ensure the impact indices and scenarios are locally relevant. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2018 |
| Description | Eden Catchment Mesocosm Experiment site visit |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an open day or visit at my research institution |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | Regional |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Field visit to demonstrate the grassland mesocosm experiments and discuss the potential results after the dry 2018 summer. Methods of drought mitigation by farmers and land owners was discussed around the question "is this what climate change will be like?" .Farmers and land managers, Scottish Wildlife Trust, SEPA, SNH, LAG members and public.attended. Most significant outcome/impact: Sharing drought research methods and exchanging information on potential mitigating actions for farmers and land owners to deal with future drought, and further research needs. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2018 |
| Description | Eden Catchmnet Local Advisory Group, LAG meeting Drought Risk Scenario Modelling, Fife, Scotland |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | Regional |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Update on drought risk modelling under climate change scenarios for the Eden catchment. Most significant outcome/impact: Feedback on how to communicate drought with a diverse group of stakeholders. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2015,2016,2017,2018 |
| Description | Eden catchment Local Advisory Group, LAG meeting - Drought Risk Scenario Modelling, Fife, Scotland |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | Regional |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Update on drought risk modelling under climate change scenarios for the Eden catchment. Presentations and discussions about the DRY project utility. Production of story boards about future actions to mitigate drought, and to add to the DRY utility. Attended by National stakeholders, academics from DRY consortium, Local organizations, council members, SEPA and Scottish Water, Scottish Wildlife Trust. Feedback on how to communicate drought with a diverse group of stakeholders |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2019 |
| Description | Fowey Catchment Local Advisory Group , LAG Drought Risk Scenario Modelling, Cornwall |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | Regional |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Share land use, climate change and catchment hydrological management scenario results from the DRY drought risk modelling, with opportunities to interactively explore specific stakeholder areas of interest and provide accessible summaries of outputs for the non-technical to improve drought risk and drought mitigation communication methodologies. This event led to Improved strategies to mitigate drought risk and a broader understanding of the multifaceted interlinked nature of drought risk and mitigation |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2018 |
| Description | Fowey Catchment Local Advisory Group, LAG Drought science update |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | Regional |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Update on progress with drought risk modelling, with opportunities to co-develop methodology via feedback on potential drought impact indices and future climate, land use and water management scenarios. Most significant outcome/impact: Feedback to ensure the impact indices and scenarios are locally relevant. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2015,2016,2017 |
| Description | Fowey catchment Final Workshop Drought Risk Scenario Modelling - Cornwall |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | Regional |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Share land use, climate change and catchment hydrological management scenario results from the DRY drought risk modelling, with opportunities to interactively explore specific stakeholder areas of interest and provide accessible summaries of outputs for the non-technical to improve drought risk and drought mitigation communication methodologies. Attended by general public, local stakeholders and academics from DRY consortium. Most significant outcome/impact: Improved strategies to mitigate drought risk and a broader understanding of the multifaceted interlinked nature of drought risk and mitigation |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2018 |
| Description | Frome Catchment Local Advisory Group, LAG Drought science update, South Gloucestershire |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | Regional |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Update on progress with drought risk modelling, with opportunities to co-develop methodology via feedback on potential drought impact indices and future climate, land use and water management scenarios. Most significant outcome/impact: Feedback from stakeholders to ensure the impact indices and scenarios are locally relevant. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2015,2016,2017 |
| Description | Frome catchment Local Advisory Group, LAG meeting - Drought science update, Yate, South Gloucestershire |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | Regional |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Update on progress with drought risk modelling, with opportunities to co-develop methodology via feedback on potential drought impact indices and future climate, land use and water management scenarios. The meeting was well attended by Local stakeholders, academics from DRY consortium, Local organizations, council members, Residents, Environment Agency, Bristol Water company and local Councillors. Feedback from stakeholders to ensure the impact indices and scenarios are locally relevant. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2018 |
| Description | Impact of climate change on water Resources availability |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Climate change is a hot topic nowadays. I was invited and sponsored by the UN Organization for Food and Agriculture, FAO to give a presentation in Cairo water Week, October 2019. The topic included possible occurrence, frequency, and severity of future drought events as well as the impact on water resources availability. The gap between future water supply and demand was of interest to the participants. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2019 |
| URL | https://www.google.com/search?q=Cairo+water+Week+2019&rlz=1C1GCEU_enGB863GB863&tbm=isch&source=iu&ic... |
| Description | Impact of future climate and land use changes on water resources availability at catchment scale: Final results of "DRY" project. Presented at Oxford University, Ragab R & Afza, M. March 21, 2019 |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | The final modelling results of the "DRY" project was presented by the PI, Dr. Ragab Ragab (details are given in the Key Findings section). |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2019 |
| URL | https://www.yumpu.com/en/document/view/62475921/delegatepack-droughtconference-20-21march2019 |
| Description | Impact of reduced rainfall on the growth and development of plants in British semi-natural grassland: a rainfall manipulation study; Jill Thompson, Sarah. Presentation at Drought conference, University of Oxford, UK and Nevil Quinn. |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Share methodology and findings on grassland drought from DRY research Most significant outcome/impact: Dissemination of research to wider than academic audience |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2019 |
| Description | Impacts of the climatic change on the hydrology of the Eden catchment in Scotland, UK using DiCaSM model approach-submitted to the European Geophysical Union, EGU |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Abstract has been accepted and drought results will be shared at EGU 2018 conference, which will provide an opportunity to share the results with a wide range of audience at international conference and to promote CEH research activities at international level. Most significant outcome/impact: Possible research collaboration and Publicising project and CEH models internationally. Source: URL https://meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU2018/EGU2018-9346.pdf |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2018 |
| Description | Lessons in laying open drought risk modelling (Black, A., Afzal, M. and Blake, J.R.) |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Share methodology and findings from DRY research Most significant outcome/impact: Improved strategies to communicate and mitigate drought |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2019 |
| Description | Local Advisory Group, LAG regular meetings every 6 months at the 7 study catchments |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | Local |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | In the Dry project we hold 6 monthly regular meeting at each study catchment: Bevils Lean, Fowey, Don, Eden, Frome, Ebbw and Pang. These meeting include the stakeholders, general public, the local Environment Agency officer, the local water company officer, the local farmers, the local Environment enthusiasts, small businesses, local school representative and local ex professional hydrologists. We present the modelling results, identifying problems and gap in our information and understanding. These often lead to a debate and most of the times, we receive feedback and extra support from the LAG. In 2016, a member of the Pang catchment LAG organized a guided tour to the gauging stations and showed where the stream flow of the Pang can be affected by the River Thames during the high flow periods. This also was followed by receiving reports on the historical flows at several gauging stations from a new member of the LAG. Example of last year meeting March 2016-February 2017: Stakeholders meetings i. Presentation to the national Stakeholders meeting at UWE on June 9, 2016. ii. Presentations every 6 months to local Stakeholders. Local Advisory Group "LAG" meetings: ? Eden catchment: May 19, 2016 and February 6, 2017, SCG meeting , February 7, 2017 ? Pang catchment: July 6, 2016 and February 17, 2017 ? Fowey catchment: February 18, 2016 and November 1, 2016 ? Bevills Leam catchment: July 5, 2016 and January 17, 2017 ? Frome catchment: June 7, 2016 and January 24, 2017 ? Don catchment: March 7, 2016 and October 11, 2016 ? Ebbw catchment: July 4, 2016, January 19, 2017 |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2014,2015,2016,2017 |
| URL | http://dryproject.co.uk/ |
| Description | Outreach to school children (Jill Thompson) . Preparation for the Hay festival |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A magazine, newsletter or online publication |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Schools |
| Results and Impact | Preparation for the Hay festival. Developing a story for teenagers, about drought. Working with a children's book author. In preparation for public performance and recording at the Hay festival |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2019 |
| URL | https://www.hayfestival.com/home |
| Description | Pang Catchment Local Advisory Group, LAG Drought science update, Oxfordshire |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | Regional |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Update on progress with drought risk modelling, with opportunities to co-develop methodology via feedback on potential drought impact indices and future climate, land use and water management scenarios. Most significant outcome/impact: Feedback from stakeholders to ensure the impact indices and scenarios are locally relevant. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2015,2016,2017 |
| Description | Pang catchment Local Advisory Group, LAG meeting - Drought science update, Sheepdrove, Oxfordshire |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | Regional |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Update on progress with drought risk modelling, with opportunities to co-develop methodology via feedback on potential drought impact indices and future climate, land use and water management scenarios. Attended by Local stakeholders, academics from DRY consortium, Thames water, EA, River Trust, Flood Group and locals. Most significant outcome/impact: Feedback from stakeholders to ensure the impact indices and scenarios are locally relevant. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2019 |
| Description | Poster presentation at European Geosciences Union, EGU: Impacts of the climatic change on the hydrology of Eden catchment in Scotland, UK using DiCaSM model approach |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Description, purpose, outputs impacts: Abstract has been accepted and drought results were shared at EGU 2018 conference, which provide an opportunity to share the results with a wide range of audience at international conference and to promote CEH research activities at international level. Conference was attended by University academics, post graduate students, environment Agencies, water authorities, researchers, Funding organizations, Publishers and consultancy firms. Most significant outcome/impact: Possible research collaboration and publicizing DRY project and CEH models internationally |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2018 |
| URL | https://meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU2018/EGU2018-9346 |
| Description | Poster: Developing the DRY (Drought Risk and You) project's Catchment Local Advisory Groups (DRY-LAGs) (McEwen, L., Blake, J.R., Grove, I., Roberts, L., Liguori, A., Sardo, M., Taylor, T., McGuinness, M., Thompson, J., Ragab, R. and Black, A.) |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Share methodology and findings from DRY research Most significant outcome/impact: Improved strategies to communicate and mitigate drought risk |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2019 |
| Description | Poster: Hydrological modelling: Fowey and Bevills Leam catchments (Blake, J.R., Moyano, J., Dumont, E., Weigang, Y., Afzal, M., Remesan, R. and Ragab, R.) |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Poster presentation: Share methodology and findings from DRY research Most significant outcome/impact: Improved strategies to communicate and mitigate drought risk, improved drought risk modelling approaches |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2019 |
| Description | Presentation at Cairo Water Week, Egypt, October 27 2021 |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Invited Keynote Speaker to Cairo Water Week. The Presentation was entitled " Global Changes Impact on Water Resources: Possible adaptation and mitigation measures" |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2017,2018,2019,2021 |
| URL | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ToGk_s7qRlQ&t=52s |
| Description | Presentation at Climate Change Conference COP26, Glasgow, UK October 29 2021 |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
| Results and Impact | Invited Keynote Speaker to the Climate Change Conference COP26, Glasgow, UK. Presentation entitled: "Agricultural Water Management under Changing Climate" |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
| URL | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GHhz23QncY0 |
| Description | Presentation at Saudi Water Week, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, March 7, 2022 |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
| Results and Impact | Invited Keynote Speaker presentation entitled " Management of Water Resources For Irrigation: Issues, Approaches, and Policies" in workshop 7: Irrigation Sector; Development Policies and Plans. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
| URL | https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/?keywords=%D9%8A%D8%AD%D8%AF%D8%AB_%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A2%D9%86 |
| Description | Presentation at University of Agriculture, Faisalabad, Pakistan on the 23rd of August 2022 |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Postgraduate students |
| Results and Impact | M. Afzal was invited to present a talk on "Seeing the unseen: The Value of water" at the University of Agriculture Faisalabad in Pakistan on the 23rd of August 2022. This incorporated slides from DRY papers in the context of the 2022 drought in UK/Europe. The event was organised by WWF Pakistan. Purpose was to share current research understanding into droughts and water scarcity. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
| Description | Public Engagement Don Catchment |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an open day or visit at my research institution |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | Local |
| Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
| Results and Impact | Information exchange discussion of potential drought indicators river walk, tree measurements in Graves park, follow up and reporting back on narratives and songs as communication from June science day. Development of skills and experience of field work. Opportunities for discussion of drought and information exchange. Discussion of songs and means of communication and drought information exchange. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2017 |
| Description | Science and stories as data (Wilson, M. and Blake, J.R.) |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Share methodology and findings from DRY research Most significant outcome/impact: Improved strategies to communicate and mitigate drought |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2019 |
| Description | Seminar based on Eden results at UFMS, Campo Grande, Brazil |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Other audiences |
| Results and Impact | Presentation based on DiCaSM & SALTMED model results, this provided an opportunity of research collaboration with the university, and received a very positive feedback. Most significant outcome/impact: Collaboration and Publicising project and CEH models internationally. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2017 |
| Description | Visualising drought futures - bite-sized science as a stimulus for storyboarding (Blake, J.R. and Wilson, M.) |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Share methodology and findings from DRY research Most significant outcome/impact: Improved strategies to communicate and mitigate drought risk |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2019 |
| Description | Visualising drought, Ebbw catchment as example (Afzal M, Andrew Black , Blake, J.R. & Ragab, R). Presentation at DRY (Drought Risk and You) Final Conference, University of West of England, Bristol, UK |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Share methodology and findings from DRY research Most significant outcome/impact: Improved strategies to communicate and mitigate drought risk |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2019 |
| Description | Webinar: Conceiving Narrative as Data (Wilson, M., McEwen, L., Blake, J.R. and Liguori, A.) |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Share methodology and findings from DRY research Most significant outcome/impact: Improved strategies to communicate and mitigate drought risk |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2019 |
| Description | Webinar: Grassland drought : Sarah Ayling with help of Jill Thompson |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Share methodology and findings on grassland drought from DRY research Most significant outcome/impact: Disseminate research on grassland drought |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2019 |
| Description | When drought stories are drought myths: the challenge of myth busting (Weitkamp, E., McEwen, L., Blake, J.R. and Elson, J.) |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Share methodology and findings from DRY research Most significant outcome/impact: Improved strategies to communicate and mitigate drought |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2019 |