DYNamics and predictability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning and Climate (DYNAMOC)

The 'Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation', or AMOC, describes a large scale circulation of the North Atlantic Ocean which carries warm surface waters northward and cooler deeper waters southwards. This circulation carries huge amounts of heat, and variations in its strength can have a substantial influence on European climate. The DYNAMOC project aims to improve understanding of how this circulation has varied in the past and how it has affected climate, and also to assess the potential for useful predictions months to years ahead.

DYNAMOC will make use of new advanced computer simulations and forecasting systems which are able to simulate the AMOC in unprecedented detail. It will also make use of the RAPID observations of the AMOC strength at 26 degrees North, available since 2004, as a benchmark for testing the models and predictions. The research will test some specific hypotheses about how the AMOC works, how it is changing now. It will investigate how a slow down or speed up in the AMOC affects summers and winters in the UK and other countries. DYNAMOC will provide an assessment of the likely behaviour of the AMOC, and its impacts on climate, over the next decade. It will also produce recommendations for improving forecasting systems in the future.

DYNAMOC is a collaboration between the National Centre for Atmospheric Science at the University of Reading, the National Oceanography Centre and the UK Met Office.

The beneficiaries of DYNAMOC will include:

1. Government Departments: (e.g. DECC, Defra and DFID, cabinet office) who are customers for Met Office seasonal-to-decadal forecasts and will benefit from improved forecasts. Furthermore, because the AMOC is one of the major mechanisms via which abrupt climate change may take place over the N Atlantic it is of extreme relevance to UK policymakers. DYNAMOC will provide new insights into the likelihood of a significant slowdown in the AMOC in the near term, and the likely impacts on the climate of Europe and other regions.

2. Businesses: seasonal forecasts are of increasing interest to businesses affected by weather and climate risks. The energy industry in particular requires information about future weather to manage supply and demand. Businesses will benefit from improved forecasts and specific advice concerning potential future changes in the AMOC and the likely consequences for businesses.

3. Met Office (MO): DYNAMOC outcomes will benefit the Met Office by i) Improving understanding of the role of the AMOC in climate variability and predictability and the representation of the relevant processes in the Met Office's models; ii) Assessing MO seasonal-to-decadal predictions and identifying opportunities for improvement; iii) Assessing the impact of the RAPID array observations on predictions.

4. International Customers: will benefit from the improved quality of the Met Office contribution to the coordinated international dissemination of seasonal forecasts (www.wmolc.org)

5. NERC: DYNAMOC outcomes will affect NERC's strategy through the project's input into the international review of the RAPID array in 2018.

6. General Public: Climate variability, such as droughts and flooding are of interest to the general public, but the AMOC's role in climate variability is still uncertain. DYNAMOC will engage the public on the AMOC's role in regional variability that affects the UK.

7. Trained Staff: DYNAMOC will train scientists in climate research and to engage with the public.