Mathematical Modelling Tools for Conservation and Disease Management

As well as being important in human and agricultural populations, it is increasingly recognised that infectious disease has important impacts in natural systems. In particular it is now clear that infectious disease can be important in conservation and may affect the ability of foreign organisms to invade natural communities. Ecological theory has been important in showing the general importance of disease in natural systems, but has only been rarely used to direct conservation programs. The project investigators have a track record in translating established research on disease-mediated ecological invasion into mathematical tools that can be used to direct conservation management decisions and policy. This project will answer current, pressing questions outlined by conservation agencies on the red-grey-squirrelpox system in Scotland. The objectives in the project have been specified by the project partners (Scottish Natural Heritage, Scottish Wildlife Trust) who need to know the potential impact of squirrelpox on remaining red squirrel populations, whether grey squirrel control can prevent squirrelpox spread and the critical locations and effort at which control is required. This information is essential to allow our conservation partners to formulate current and future management plans that allocates limited resources in a manner that maximises red squirrel protection. The modelling framework, which predicts temporal and spatial disease dynamics on large-scale, complex landscapes, is the best tool available to underpin these conservation efforts. Therefore, this NERC Innovations proposal provides a unique opportunity to translate established research into effective conservation strategies that provide direct tangible benefits to end-users.

The mathematical modelling tools will provide essential information to help safeguard the remaining red squirrel populations in Scotland. As an outcome of this project conservation strategies will be employed with the aim of preventing squirrelpox spread beyond Central Scotland. The model output will also be used to develop contingency plans to minimise the risk and impact of squirrelpox throughout Scotland and the model findings will provide key information for the most efficient use of resources.

Agencies that are responsible for the conservation of red squirrels (Scottish Natural Heritage, Scottish Wildlife Trust, Forestry Commission Scotland, Saving Scotland's Red Squirrels) will benefit directly from this project. Moreover there will be a two-way transfer of ideas that will allow conservation policy and practice to be underpinned by current research. The work proposed in the project will play a key role in safeguarding the future of red populations in Scotland and in optimising the use of limited resources. The work will play a key role in developing long term sustainable strategies for red squirrel conservation.

The project outcomes will also foster public engagement. Red squirrel conservation is also undertaken by many charitable and voluntary organisations and the outcomes of the model will help coordinate the effort of these bodies (through our dialogue with project partners). The long-term viability of red populations will be of benefit to the general public, who show strong support for protecting red squirrels (the red squirrel was recently voted the 2nd most popular species in Scotland behind the golden eagle).

The modelling tools developed in this project are applicable beyond Scotland and we will showcase the results to conservation agencies in England, Wales, Ireland and mainland Europe (Italy) which all suffer from grey squirrel invasions that threaten native reds. The modelling methodology will also be suitable for understanding and developing conservation practice in other invasive systems. The previous collaboration with Scottish Natural Heritage has already been successful in initiating new collaborations and in particular a project that will use similar modelling techniques to manage the spread of bovine TB in wild boar in Spain will begin in March 2015 (in collaboration with Sanidad y Biotecnologia).

The work in this project will therefore have direct impacts for end-users by shaping policy and practice but will also serve to advertise the applicability of the methods for answering key questions in applied conservation and species management.