Delivering Food Security on Limited Land (DEVIL)
Lead Research Organisation:
University of Aberdeen
Department Name: Inst of Biological and Environmental Sci
Abstract
We will examine the challenge of delivering food security now and in the future on limited area, which will entail examining feedback interactions between land use change and food security dynamics. We will use the high resolution, spatially disaggregated global models and databases of soils, land-use, crops and livestock, developed by consortium partners as the basis for the analysis. We will use the global FEEDME model, informed by FAO statistics and nutritional demand, to derive country level dietary demands for food products. We will develop and use a country-level agent based model, that includes economic and sociopolitical constraints on food production and trade between countries, to satisfy the demand for food either locally, or through trade (constrained by international trade statistics), given the soil, crop and livestock resources available. Performance of the modeling system will be tested against current statistics on food (in)security, and spatial data on hotspots of land use change. The system will be considered adequate if it is able to replicate the current status. Once evaluated, the modeling system will be used to examine a range of scenarios including a) production side measures to improve food security, through: i) sustainable intensification (closing the yield gap; improving livestock), ii) redistribution and trade, and b) demand side measures through i) changing diets, ii) reduced waste (pre- and post-harvest). The feedback interactions between these drivers of change and land use, and the feedback to food supply will be examined globally. Additional regional analysis will examine impacts on food security, land use change and selected ecosystem services in three regions that are key for food security and land use change: South Asia, sub-Saharan Africa and South America. We anticipate that this work will yield high impact papers and information critical to policy makers, industry and other stakeholders. The project will contribute to Future Earth, CCAFS, the Global Land Project and the Programme for Ecosystem Change and Society.
Planned Impact
Methods for engaging with users and exchanging / disseminating data / knowledge / skills: There are five main mechanisms for knowledge and skill exchange, participatory project development, and data dissemination: 1) stakeholder meetings with high level stakeholder group (mainly policy makers, influencers and food chain decision makers), 2) regional stakeholder meetings in South Asia, South America and sub-Saharan Africa with regional stakeholders from production, extension, processing and retail (mainly farm management, best land practices, regional impacts, food processing industry and retailers); 3) provision of extension materials in the appropriate languages to support KE in Asia, South America and Africa; 4) dedicated Summer Schools for Under- and Post-Graduate students and stakeholders from partner institutes and impact study regions; 5) website including links to data and model repository (including meta-data to describe what is available) and all support materials, which will include computer access to data / models and cell-phone web-access to all support materials (more detail below). Identifying the relevant regional stakeholders will be done in close collaboration with the project partners working in South Asia, South America and Africa, but also via the networks already present within the consortium towards policy, industry and NGOs. Summer Schools will be announced internationally, via dedicated list-servers and webpages. Selection of participants will be based on a variety of criteria, including existing expertise, motivation, balanced representation of country of origin, gender and occupation within the world food system. Since food security demands a trans-disciplinary approach to achieve capacity building for viable solutions, stakeholder engagement will be at the core of both Summer Schools. Summer School programs will include lectures, workshops, computer labs, field trips, visits to extension services and companies, link to NGOs and policy, depending on the locations (which will be decided early in the project), and allow ample time for discussions, group work and networking among the participants. Thus, this project aims to build the capacity of the next generation of decision makers who can provide leadership in all issues related to sustainable intensification and food security. An Alumni community will be developed, following the example at the WFSC.
Organisations
Publications
Abdalla M
(2018)
Critical review of the impacts of grazing intensity on soil organic carbon storage and other soil quality indicators in extensively managed grasslands.
in Agriculture, ecosystems & environment
Adams MA
(2018)
Contrasting responses of crop legumes and cereals to nitrogen availability.
in The New phytologist
Anderson CM
(2019)
Natural climate solutions are not enough.
in Science (New York, N.Y.)
Bai Z
(2021)
Food and feed trade has greatly impacted global land and nitrogen use efficiencies over 1961-2017.
in Nature food
Balmford A
(2018)
The environmental costs and benefits of high-yield farming
in Nature Sustainability
Basso B
(2018)
Soil Organic Carbon and Nitrogen Feedbacks on Crop Yields under Climate Change
in Agricultural & Environmental Letters
Bossio D
(2020)
The role of soil carbon in natural climate solutions
in Nature Sustainability
Carlson K
(2016)
Greenhouse gas emissions intensity of global croplands
in Nature Climate Change
Chabbi A
(2017)
Aligning agriculture and climate policy
in Nature Climate Change
Chaplin-Kramer R
(2015)
Degradation in carbon stocks near tropical forest edges.
in Nature communications
De Ruiter H
(2017)
Total global agricultural land footprint associated with UK food supply 1986-2011
in Global Environmental Change
De Ruiter H
(2016)
Global cropland and greenhouse gas impacts of UK food supply are increasingly located overseas.
in Journal of the Royal Society, Interface
De Ruiter H
(2018)
Moving beyond calories and protein: Micronutrient assessment of UK diets and land use
in Global Environmental Change
Eyhorn F
(2019)
Sustainability in global agriculture driven by organic farming
in Nature Sustainability
Fetzel T
(2017)
Seasonality constraints to livestock grazing intensity.
in Global change biology
Fetzel T
(2017)
Quantification of uncertainties in global grazing systems assessment
in Global Biogeochemical Cycles
Fitton N
(2019)
The vulnerabilities of agricultural land and food production to future water scarcity
in Global Environmental Change
Frank S
(2017)
Reducing greenhouse gas emissions in agriculture without compromising food security?
in Environmental Research Letters
Frank S
(2018)
Structural change as a key component for agricultural non-CO2 mitigation efforts.
in Nature communications
Fry JP
(2016)
Environmental health impacts of feeding crops to farmed fish.
in Environment international
Ge J
(2021)
Food and nutrition security under global trade: a relation-driven agent-based global trade model.
in Royal Society open science
Gerber JS
(2016)
Spatially explicit estimates of N2 O emissions from croplands suggest climate mitigation opportunities from improved fertilizer management.
in Global change biology
Godde C
(2020)
Soil carbon sequestration in grazing systems: managing expectations
in Climatic Change
Grant M
(2018)
Tackling Food System Challenges through Experiential Education: Criteria for Optimal Course Design
in GAIA - Ecological Perspectives for Science and Society
Griscom B
(2020)
National mitigation potential from natural climate solutions in the tropics
in Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences
Gu Baojing
(2019)
Four steps to food security for swelling cities
in NATURE
Hall C
(2019)
The relationship between forest cover and diet quality: a case study of rural southern Malawi
in Food Security
Hall C
(2021)
The impact of climate and societal change on food and nutrition security: A case study of Malawi
in Food and Energy Security
Hall C
(2017)
The impact of population growth and climate change on food security in Africa: looking ahead to 2050
in International Journal of Agricultural Sustainability
Hepburn C
(2019)
The technological and economic prospects for CO2 utilization and removal.
in Nature
Herrero M
(2016)
Greenhouse gas mitigation potentials in the livestock sector
in Nature Climate Change
Herrero M
(2017)
Farming and the geography of nutrient production for human use: a transdisciplinary analysis.
in The Lancet. Planetary health
Herrero M
(2020)
Innovation can accelerate the transition towards a sustainable food system
in Nature Food
Horton P
(2021)
Technologies to deliver food and climate security through agriculture.
in Nature plants
J.S Gerber
(2016)
Room to grow: is crop production keeping up with potential?
Jeong JH
(2016)
Random Forests for Global and Regional Crop Yield Predictions.
in PloS one
Jones GD
(2017)
Selenium deficiency risk predicted to increase under future climate change.
in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
Kayatz B
(2019)
"More crop per drop": Exploring India's cereal water use since 2005.
in The Science of the total environment
Lamb A
(2016)
The potential for land sparing to offset greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture
in Nature Climate Change
Lapola D
(2018)
Limiting the high impacts of Amazon forest dieback with no-regrets science and policy action
in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
Lassaletta L
(2016)
Nitrogen use in the global food system: past trends and future trajectories of agronomic performance, pollution, trade, and dietary demand
in Environmental Research Letters
Ledo A
(2020)
Changes in soil organic carbon under perennial crops.
in Global change biology
Lippe M
(2019)
Using agent-based modelling to simulate social-ecological systems across scales
in GeoInformatica
Macdiarmid J
(2018)
Assessing national nutrition security: The UK reliance on imports to meet population energy and nutrient recommendations
in PLOS ONE
| Description | New agent based modelling framework developed - coupled with state-of-the-art spatial datasets on production, trade, GHG emissions, water and land use. Final papers in preparation for submission to high impact journal to complement the 97 publications arising from this project |
| Exploitation Route | Datasets have been made available for others to use in future analysis. Final synthesis paper still in development. |
| Sectors | Agriculture, Food and Drink,Environment |
| URL | https://deliveringfoodsecurity.org/ |
| Description | Stakeholder engagement events in South Africa in 2017 and in Brazil in October 2018. The DEVIL project was featured in the 10 year anniversary conference of FACCE-JPI (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iev_fbbqP_Y&list=PLtgyZ0PvgvO-24FStUbSOTmAauDR96Ieg?dex=3) using a co-developed animated film. Presented highlights of DEVIL project at 10 year anniversary of FACCE-JPI Programme (2021) |
| First Year Of Impact | 2018 |
| Sector | Agriculture, Food and Drink,Environment |
| Impact Types | Societal |
| Title | Projections of water scarcity in croplands, 2050 |
| Description | Projections of global changes in water scarcity with the current extent of croplands were combined to identify the potential country level vulnerabilities of cropland land to water scarcity in 2050. The data relate to an analysis of the impact changes in water availability will have on cropland availability in 2050. |
| Type Of Material | Database/Collection of data |
| Year Produced | 2019 |
| Provided To Others? | Yes |
| Description | Consumerism and Climate Change: How the Choices You Make Can Help Mitigate the Effects of Climate Change |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A magazine, newsletter or online publication |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Other audiences |
| Results and Impact | Article published as part of the UNAI Food Security and Climate Change series |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2016 |
| URL | https://academicimpact.un.org/content/consumerism-and-climate-change-how-choices-you-make-can-help-m... |
| Description | Environment Reports: Food Matters |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
| Results and Impact | Published by the Institute on the Environment at the University of Minnesota, Environment Reports is a collaboration between an international group of scientists, writers, and designers to combine incisive narratives about environmental challenges, backed up by cutting-edge data. The website to targeted at educators, a business leader, a policymaker, or an engaged citizen and Food Matters provides a powerful means to understand and communicate environmental problems and solutions. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2016,2017 |
| URL | http://www.environmentreports.com/about/ |
| Description | FACCE-JPI 10 year anniversary conference - featured project |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A broadcast e.g. TV/radio/film/podcast (other than news/press) |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Other audiences |
| Results and Impact | FACCE-JPI 10 year anniversary conference - featured project - the conference was recorded and is available on the FACCE-JPI Youtube Channel (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iev_fbbqP_Y&list=PLtgyZ0PvgvO-24FStUbSOTmAauDR96Ieg?dex=3&t=5s) |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2020 |
| URL | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iev_fbbqP_Y&list=PLtgyZ0PvgvO-24FStUbSOTmAauDR96Ieg&index=3&t=5s |
| Description | Food Systems in Transition: summer school in Africa |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Schools |
| Results and Impact | World Food Systems Center, based in ETH zurich, Executive Director Michelle Grant and Education Manager Jonna Cohen put together and intensive two-week program guiding the participants along the food value chain and offering numerous possibilities to interact with food system stakeholders and experts. DEVIL researchers Nina Buchmann, Bob Scholes and Luciana Soler were among the many contributors. Follow up schools are planned for Brazil in 2018/2019 |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2017 |
| URL | http://deliveringfoodsecurity.org/news/2017/11/20/successful-summer-school-in-south-africa |
| Description | Grazed and Confused? How much can grazing livestock help to mitigate climate change? |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
| Results and Impact | Food Climate Research Network (FCRN). 2018. Grazed and Confused? How much can grazing livestock help to mitigate climate change? |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2014,2018 |
| URL | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nub7pToY3jU&feature=youtu.be |
| Description | How Supply Chain Innovation Can Contribute to Sustainability |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
| Results and Impact | West, PC. 2017. Panelist for Institute for Food Technologies' "How Supply Chain Innovation Can Contribute to Sustainability" virtual meeting. December 14, 2017 |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2017 |
| Description | Promoting soil health to ensure global food and nutrition security. |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
| Results and Impact | Elias, P, G Truitt Nakata, PC West, J Seale. 2018. Panel discussion: Promoting soil health to ensure global food and nutrition security. Moderated by R Thurow. FAO Liaison Office for North America, Washinton, DC. November 28, 2018. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2018 |
| Description | Story Map of the Month "Diverse Farms, Diverse Foods" June 1, 2017 by Peder Engstrom and the University of Minnesota team. |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
| Results and Impact | The story map related to the Food Matters report entitled "Small Farms: Stewards of Global Nutrition?" is featured as ESRI's "Story Map of the Month" in June. The report and the story map highlight the key findings of a study by Mario Herrero with contributions of Co-PIs James Gerber and Paul West. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2017 |
| URL | http://umn.maps.arcgis.com/apps/Cascade/index.html?appid=a48c26df4577490ba8b92d410df2e1fd |
| Description | Sustainable Food Production in a Changing Climate: Causes and Effects. Webinar lecture to climate change and agriculture class |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | Local |
| Primary Audience | Postgraduate students |
| Results and Impact | West, PC. 2018. Sustainable Food Production in a Changing Climate: Causes and Effects. Webinar lecture to climate change and agriculture class, University of Galway. Galway, Ireland. March 28, 2018. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2018 |
| Description | Sustainably feeding a growing population on a warming planet. |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | Local |
| Primary Audience | Third sector organisations |
| Results and Impact | West, PC. 2018. Sustainably feeding a growing population on a warming planet. Montana Institute on Ecosystems Distinguished Visiting Lecture Series. Montana State University. Boseman, MT. September 26, 2018. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2018 |
| Description | The Intimate Relationship between Food Security and Land |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A magazine, newsletter or online publication |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
| Results and Impact | Article published as part of the UNAI 'Food Security and Climate Change' series. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2016 |
| URL | https://academicimpact.un.org/content/intimate-relationship-between-food-security-and-land |