Mitigating present and future climate risks to winemaking

Climatic changes and advances in wine production techniques have aided a rapid increase in the production of high quality sparkling wines in the UK. In the 1970s, the northern limits of commercial wine growing did not extend to the UK, but there are now 470 commercial vineyards in the UK, with over 100 established in SW England. In 2004, the majority of awards for sparkling wines in Europe were awarded to English wines and the rapid growth in the production of high-quality wine seems set to continue. However, grapevine-growing in marginal climates is especially susceptible to variation in weather and the success and quality of wine is much affected by local climatic conditions. This, coupled with the fact the UK winemaking sector is mostly made-up of small enterprises with high variation in relevant skills and experience, means that there is a clear need to map climatic suitability and quantify the risks of unfavourable weather events occurring at high spatial resolutions both now and under near-future climate change.

As part of NERC-funded and related research activities the project team has developed a series of state-of-the-art high-resolution climate models that can be used to estimate climatic conditions at hourly intervals at spatial scales down to one metre, which when coupled with the latest down-scaled climate models, can be also be used to assess the likelihood of key climatic conditions occurring in the future. The great attraction of this approach is that the model outputs can be used to calculate the aspects of climate that are actually meaningful for the success of wine at the scale of individual fields within vineyards. Examples include the risk of frost damage after spring budbreak, the likelihood of suitably warm and dry conditions during flowering and berry set, or the probabilities of exposure to unfavourably high rainfall during harvest.

Our project partners are (1) the nationally and internationally recognized body representing the wine industry in South West England (the South West Vineyard Association), (2) a world-leading vineyard consultant (Smart Viticulture), (3) several individual vineyards based in the South West of England (Camel Valley, Polgoon, Torview Wines Ltd), and (4) a body with core strategic responsibility for developing food and land-based industries regionally (the Cornwall Agri-food Council). We will work with our partners to determine exactly which weather and climatic events most affect the success of grapevine growing. The climate models will then be used to generate high resolution maps, quantifying local climatic suitability and the likelihood of adverse conditions occurring across South West England both now and under future climate scenarios. We will work with our partners to hone and develop the outputs of our models so that they are useful, practical tools that can be used easily by vineyard managers and future investors. We will ensure the tools are made available to the UK wine industry, particularly those in the south-west, and will work with our partners to increase uptake and application of the tool.

Key words: climate risk, weather, grapevine growing, high-quality sparkling wine, microclimate, mesoclimate, viticulture

In the short-term, our project will provide a fine-resolution quantitative tool that maps climate suitability and presents probabilistic measures of climate-related risks to wine growing, providing an objective background to the decisions that can be taken by wine growers regarding the siting of vineyards, selection of grape varieties, and management of grape vines. A number of approaches can be taken at a farm or field scale to adapt to climate risks, but the models developed and disseminated by this project will provide a tool that has been tailored specifically to provide a more detailed set of information to help enable grapevine growers to determine when, where and how to carry out these adaptation measures. The project will heighten awareness among current vineyard owners, winemakers and potential investors in the industry of the capacity for topographic variation to modify mesoclimate, the spatial scales at which this occurs, and how important this could be for the adaptation of wine growing to climate change. The eventual and hoped-for outcome would be for wine growers to be able to increase their economic productivity by taking better informed decisions regarding the risks and opportunities for wine quality and productivity in specific locations caused by current and future climates.

In addition, the tool would represent an objective means to determine whether wine growing is indeed likely to be a productive enterprise in areas which coarser resolution climate models have suggested will become suitable for wine growing in South West England. We envisage this will help the regional wine industry to reach its full potential, as well as informing debates regarding future land-use, and ideally alleviating the risk of land-use conflicts caused by future attempts to locate vineyards in places that are unlikely to be suitable for wine growing based on local topographic variation. Practically this might be able eventually to be worked into local planning decisions.

Less directly, our outputs will be of potential to benefit in other agricultural sectors, particularly other perennial speciality crops, such as the fruit growing industry. We anticipate that this project will provide a valuable test-bed for the application of mesoclimate models across larger parts of the UK and in other agricultural sectors, and will help form a foundation upon which further collaborative ventures may be developed.