Saiga antelope (Saiga tatarica tatarica) mortality in Kazakhstan 2015: emergency investigation of disease outbreak to improve knowledge of drivers

Catastrophic disease events can be devastating for the survival of threatened species, and can reverse years of conservation effort. When populations are already small and vulnerable, due to poaching or habitat loss, disease can be the final straw. Examples of disease as a conservation issue include the Ethiopian wolf, which is susceptible to distemper and rabies from domestic dogs, and rinderpest, which decimated the wild and domestic ungulate populations of Africa in the 19th century. Recently it has been recognised that disease is best understood and tackled in a wider context than just the individual species of host and pathogen; resilient ecosystems are better able to accommodate disease outbreaks, and human-caused environmental change can make species more vulnerable.

The saiga antelope is a migratory ungulate which gathers to give birth in large aggregations. It is critically endangered due to a >95% decline in population size over <10 years due to poaching for its horns and meat. However one population (Betpak-dala) has recovered well, to about 250,000 individuals in April 2015. Mass die-offs from disease occur regularly in this species, but the causes and contributing factors have never been properly investigated. In May 2015, 120,000 saigas died within a few days in the Betpak-dala population, about half this population, and >1/3 of the global population. For the first time, a rapid response team was able to attend and collect samples from the affected saigas and their environment. Initial observations suggest that the deaths were a result of a complex interaction between particular environmental conditions (wet weather, lush grass) and the weakness of females which had just given birth, causing pathogens which were present but latent within the saigas to take hold. This is not the whole story, however, which may also include toxins in plants or water, an insect-carried disease, or a directly-transmitted virus.

In this project, we will analyse the already-collected samples to diagnose the causes of and contributing factors to this mass die-off. We will run an urgent mission to the field, to collect supplementary information which will help us to home in on the triggers for this disease. We will visit both affected and unaffected areas, to understand what the differences are. We will talk to local herders, and get weather records for the days leading up to the deaths. Next, we will compile everything we know about this outbreak, and about previous outbreaks (recent and historical, in saigas and similar species), to get an overall picture of the pattern of events and environmental conditions which leads to mass saiga deaths. Combining this understanding with projections of future environmental conditions (e.g. climate change) and emerging infectious diseases (e.g. peste des petits ruminants, which is entering Central Asia from Africa), we will explore scenarios of risk from a range of diseases to both saigas and livestock, and how risks could be mitigated (e.g. through vaccination or changes in land use practices).

Having assembled this evidence, we will help the Government of Kazakhstan to prepare for future disease outbreaks; we will design surveillance protocols so they can have early warning of potential triggers for mortality, and help them to examine whether, and which, interventions might reduce the risk of outbreaks, or mitigate them. We will run a technical workshop at the upcoming meeting of the UN Convention on Migratory Species' Memorandum of Understanding on saiga conservation, and support signatories (governments and NGOs) to develop and ratify an action plan.

This project is a unique chance to investigate a dramatic and complex disease event of huge conservation importance, which will also shed light on the relationship between environmental change and disease. This makes it of wide general interest for ecologists, and an opportunity which it is vital to take while there is still time to act.

The results of this project will be of major global interest, evidenced by the huge amount of press coverage worldwide, e.g. the New York Times, the Australian Broadasting Corporation, Liberation (France), Scientific American, New Scientist, Nature, Guardian, Independent, BBC (several branches). Team members R. Kock (RVC), S. Zuther (ACBK), E.J. Milner-Gulland (Imperial) and A. Kuhl-Stenzel (CMS) have been interviewed extensively. The coverage highlights the mystery surrounding the cause of death. As this project is specifically aimed at clarifying this, there is significant potential for substantial impact.

Range state governments, particularly Kazakhstan, require guidance and support to plan effective disease surveillance and control, and to conserve this species given its proneness to mass mortality events. The Kazakhstan government has set up a Commission to investigate the saiga deaths and make recommendations, with RVC as a member and RIBSP as coordinator; this will be a key avenue for engagement. Specific relevant branches of government are: the Ministry of Agriculture, National Reference Veterinary Centre, State Veterinary Laboratories, Forestry and Hunting Committee (wildlife management authority), Analytic Control Department of Ecology, Kazakhstan Environment Ministry. Other range state governments will also benefit from understanding the potential for disease and the appropriate response.

The general public internationally, and particularly in Kazakhstan, will benefit from information on the causes and response to this outbreak, and about future planning to mitigate future outbreaks. The project's scientific approach will reassure the public about the transparency of the assessment. Frequent references in the media to possible transnational influences, rocket testing and historic toxicologies is liable to raise tensions and political heat without a sound open research programme. The independence of UK engagement will provide a strong signal to Kazakhstan's political and civil society that the Ministry is acting in a responsible and transparent manner in its investigation.

Scientific institutions: Currently there is a lack of capacity for wildlife disease monitoring and diagnosis in Kazakhstan. The project will benefit partners RIBSP by tying them into international support. It will also provide the UK's Pirbright Institute an opportunity to use new technologies in their refurbished laboratories, including next generation sequencing to screen for possible immunosuppressive viral pathogens.

International organisations: Project partner CMS, which coordinates the MOU on saiga conservation, will draw lessons from this research for other species in its portfolio. IUCN - the World Conservation Union's Species Survival Commission will benefit from improved understanding of the conservation implications of disease in threatened species. The project will benefit FAO's newly establishing Astana office, supporting their role in the country and improving understanding of the threats to saigas in the context of emerging agricultural development policy on the steppe.

NGOs: Project partner ACBK is the main conservation organisation in Kazakhstan, and works closely with government on saiga conservation. It will benefit from a better understanding of the issues surrounding saiga disease and how to prepare for and respond to future outbreaks. Internationally, the Saiga Conservation Alliance (chaired by co-I EJMG) and project partner FFI will benefit from better understanding of saiga disease, supporting engagement with donors and the general public to build a basis for future conservation action. Other beneficiary NGOs working on saigas include Frankfurt Zoological Society, Birdlife, Wildlife Conservation Society, WWF.

The research will provide full results in the short time frame of a year, but we hope to provide an initial diagnosis and report by the time of the CMS's technical meeting in early September.