Toolkit to improve resilience of critical ports and dependent national supply chain systems against extreme sea level rise (storm surge) events

As a first stage in the analysis of storm surge risks to UK port infrastructure and supply chain operation, this project aims to improve the resilience of the port of Immingham and its critical biomass/coal transport link to power stations.
The project includes the following three activities:
WF1: To refine and operationalize an innovative artificial neural network (ANN) extreme sea-level prediction model (NE/M008150/1) for application at Immingham (with potential application for other UK ports, especially within estuaries).
WF2: To translate predicted surge height and duration to risks to infrastructure (equipment, facilities) and operations (i.e. impacts on biomass/coal flows) through stakeholder engagement.
WF3: Incorporate railway infrastructure and freight train movements to UCL's MARS model (used in NE/M008150/1) to predict the cascading impacts on the power sector.

1. Our toolkit and stakeholder workshops will provide the Port of Immingham (which sustains around 17% of national electricity generation, ABP's Humber ports contribute c.£2.2bn to the UK economy per annum and incurred damage to assets of more than £10M in direct cost during Dec 2013 storm surge event) with more detailed knowledge of surge magnitude, inundation extent and impacts on infrastructure elements, and the effectiveness of specific risk mitigation measures. They will enable ports to protect key equipment/infrastructure from sea level rise by identifying them and providing increased protection, permanent relocation or facilitating short-term relocation.
2. The current culture of ports is "wait until a problem happens" because, due to lack of knowledge and appropriate prediction tools, the costs of proactive risk mitigation measures cannot be internally justified. The toolkit will give more detailed information about potential sea level rise and its cost, allowing ports to justify proactive risk mitigation measures. The project will eventually promote a proactive risk management culture.
3. By quantifying impacts of port flooding on them, the rail and energy sectors will be able to work more closely with the port sector, enhancing the resilience of port to power station supply chains. The section outside Immingham Port is one of the busiest freight traffic routes in the UK (Network Rail, 2013) and is regarded as a core trunk route of its Strategic Freight Network.
4. An easy-to-use toolkit for prediction of surge inundation and its knock-on effects on both port and supply chain operations will empower operators and consultancy firms and allow them to engineer solutions at a low cost without running expensive simulations.