The North Atlantic Climate System Integrated Study
Lead Research Organisation:
National Oceanography Centre
Department Name: Science and Technology
Abstract
Major changes are occurring across the North Atlantic climate system: in ocean and atmosphere temperatures and circulation, in sea ice thickness and extent, and in key atmospheric constituents such as ozone, methane and particles known as aerosols. Many observed changes are unprecedented in instrumental records. Changes in the North Atlantic directly affect the UK's climate, weather and air quality, with major economic impacts on agriculture, fisheries, water, energy, transport and health. The North Atlantic also has global importance, since changes here drive changes in climate, hazardous weather and air quality further afield, such as in North America, Africa and Asia.
ACSIS is a 5 year strategic research programme that brings together and exploits a wide range of capabilities and expertise in the UK environmental science community. It's goal is to enhance the UK's capability to detect, attribute (i.e. explain the causes of) and predict changes in the North Atlantic Climate System. ACSIS will deliver new understanding of the NA climate system by integrating new and old observations of atmospheric physics and chemistry, of the ocean state and of Arctic Ice. The observations will be complemented by detailed data analysis and numerical simulations. Observations will come from existing networks, from NERC's own observational sites in the North Atlantic, and from space. Seasonal surveys using the NCAS FAAM aeroplane will further enhance our observational strategy. A key dimension of the observational opportunity is that data records of sufficient length, for multiple variables, are becoming available for the first time. The modelling component will involve core numerical simulations with cutting-edge atmosphere, ocean, sea ice, chemistry and aerosol models using the latest parameterizations and unprecedented spatial detail, as well as bespoke experiments to investigate specific time periods or to explore and explain particular observations.
ACSIS will provide advances in understanding and predicting changes in the NA climate system that can be exploited to assess the impact of these changes on the UK and other countries - for example in terms of the consequences for hazardous weather risk, the environment and businesses. ACSIS outputs will also inform policy on climate change adaptation and air quality.
ACSIS is a 5 year strategic research programme that brings together and exploits a wide range of capabilities and expertise in the UK environmental science community. It's goal is to enhance the UK's capability to detect, attribute (i.e. explain the causes of) and predict changes in the North Atlantic Climate System. ACSIS will deliver new understanding of the NA climate system by integrating new and old observations of atmospheric physics and chemistry, of the ocean state and of Arctic Ice. The observations will be complemented by detailed data analysis and numerical simulations. Observations will come from existing networks, from NERC's own observational sites in the North Atlantic, and from space. Seasonal surveys using the NCAS FAAM aeroplane will further enhance our observational strategy. A key dimension of the observational opportunity is that data records of sufficient length, for multiple variables, are becoming available for the first time. The modelling component will involve core numerical simulations with cutting-edge atmosphere, ocean, sea ice, chemistry and aerosol models using the latest parameterizations and unprecedented spatial detail, as well as bespoke experiments to investigate specific time periods or to explore and explain particular observations.
ACSIS will provide advances in understanding and predicting changes in the NA climate system that can be exploited to assess the impact of these changes on the UK and other countries - for example in terms of the consequences for hazardous weather risk, the environment and businesses. ACSIS outputs will also inform policy on climate change adaptation and air quality.
Planned Impact
Policy makers: Advances in understanding the role of natural and anthropogenic drivers in North Atlantic climate change delivered by ACSIS will contribute to the next Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Assessment Report (AR6) and to national and international policy-making on climate change adaptation and mitigation. Improved understanding of the impact of stratospheric ozone change on tropospheric composition and climate will inform assessments for the Montreal Protocol. Advances in understanding the role of emissions, relative to other factors, in shaping UK air quality will benefit policy formulation in Defra. Representatives of relevant government departments will be invited to the Community Meetings that are a planned part of the programme. These meetings will include specific sessions on stakeholder needs.
The Met Office and its customers will benefit from the process-based evaluation of their models and forecast systems. Improvements in modelling and understanding will be exploited to improve the accuracy and reliability of climate forecasts and projections. This will happen efficiently through the co-delivery of ACSIS by Met Office and NERC scientists.
The EU Copernicus Climate Change Service will benefit from advances in observations, models, understanding and predictions of changes in the regional climate of the North Atlantic/European region. ACSIS partners are already directly engaged in the development of relevant services and this engagement will increase through the programme.
Businesses concerned with changing weather and weather-related risks will benefit from advances in understanding the drivers of changing risk. ACSIS partners have established collaborations with the insurance and energy industries in particular, and these collaborations will provide an important pathway for communication of ACSIS findings. These interactions will be enhanced internationally through related work in the EU PRIMAVERA programme, as well as through the Community Meetings mentioned above.
General public and the media. The observations of declining Arctic sea-ice have become an iconic symbol of our changing climate system for the media and the general public. The ACSIS Essential Climate Variables, presented in accessible form and updated regularly on the ACSIS website, will provide a similar but broader based snap-shot of how the climate system is changing in the UK's backyard. The presentation of multiple variables in a consistent format will provide an important regular opportunity for ACSIS scientists to discuss and explain the complex nature of changes in a way that is accessible and engaging. We anticipate a high level of media interest in this dimension of the programme.
ACSIS is specifically designed to enable as well as deliver research and as such there is a wide community of academic beneficiaries (see separate summary), who will themselves contribute to enhancing the overall impacts of the programme.
The Met Office and its customers will benefit from the process-based evaluation of their models and forecast systems. Improvements in modelling and understanding will be exploited to improve the accuracy and reliability of climate forecasts and projections. This will happen efficiently through the co-delivery of ACSIS by Met Office and NERC scientists.
The EU Copernicus Climate Change Service will benefit from advances in observations, models, understanding and predictions of changes in the regional climate of the North Atlantic/European region. ACSIS partners are already directly engaged in the development of relevant services and this engagement will increase through the programme.
Businesses concerned with changing weather and weather-related risks will benefit from advances in understanding the drivers of changing risk. ACSIS partners have established collaborations with the insurance and energy industries in particular, and these collaborations will provide an important pathway for communication of ACSIS findings. These interactions will be enhanced internationally through related work in the EU PRIMAVERA programme, as well as through the Community Meetings mentioned above.
General public and the media. The observations of declining Arctic sea-ice have become an iconic symbol of our changing climate system for the media and the general public. The ACSIS Essential Climate Variables, presented in accessible form and updated regularly on the ACSIS website, will provide a similar but broader based snap-shot of how the climate system is changing in the UK's backyard. The presentation of multiple variables in a consistent format will provide an important regular opportunity for ACSIS scientists to discuss and explain the complex nature of changes in a way that is accessible and engaging. We anticipate a high level of media interest in this dimension of the programme.
ACSIS is specifically designed to enable as well as deliver research and as such there is a wide community of academic beneficiaries (see separate summary), who will themselves contribute to enhancing the overall impacts of the programme.
Publications
Andersson T
(2022)
Seasonal Arctic sea ice forecasting with probabilistic deep learning
Bateson A
(2022)
Sea ice floe size: its impact on pan-Arctic and local ice mass and required model complexity
in The Cryosphere
Bell M
(2021)
Wind-Driven Oscillations in Meridional Overturning Circulations near the Equator. Part II: Idealized Simulations
in Journal of Physical Oceanography
Blaker A
(2021)
Wind-Driven Oscillations in the Meridional Overturning Circulation near the equator. Part I: Numerical Models
in Journal of Physical Oceanography
Blaker A
(2020)
FORTE 2.0: a fast, parallel and flexible coupled climate model
Blaker A
(2021)
FORTE 2.0: a fast, parallel and flexible coupled climate model
in Geoscientific Model Development
Boland E
(2023)
Ocean Heat Content Responses to Changing Anthropogenic Aerosol Forcing Strength: Regional and Multi-Decadal Variability
in Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans
Bryden H
(2020)
Reduction in Ocean Heat Transport at 26°N since 2008 Cools the Eastern Subpolar Gyre of the North Atlantic Ocean
in Journal of Climate
Cattrell A
(2018)
Can Rogue Waves Be Predicted Using Characteristic Wave Parameters?
in Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans
Dacre H
(2020)
Extratropical-cyclone-induced sea surface temperature anomalies in the 2013-2014 winter
in Weather and Climate Dynamics
Desbruyères D
(2020)
Importance of Boundary Processes for Heat Uptake in the Subpolar North Atlantic
in Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans
Diabaté S
(2021)
Western boundary circulation and coastal sea-level variability in Northern Hemisphere oceans
in Ocean Science
Docquier D
(2019)
Impact of model resolution on Arctic sea ice and North Atlantic Ocean heat transport
in Climate Dynamics
Duchez A
(2016)
Drivers of exceptionally cold North Atlantic Ocean temperatures and their link to the 2015 European heat wave
in Environmental Research Letters
Florindo-López C
(2020)
Arctic Ocean and Hudson Bay Freshwater Exports: New Estimates from Seven Decades of Hydrographic Surveys on the Labrador Shelf
in Journal of Climate
Germe A
(2022)
Chaotic Variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation at Subannual Time Scales
in Journal of Physical Oceanography
Grist J
(2019)
Re-emergence of North Atlantic subsurface ocean temperature anomalies in a seasonal forecast system
in Climate Dynamics
Grist J
(2018)
Increasing Atlantic Ocean Heat Transport in the Latest Generation Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Models: The Role of Air-Sea Interaction
in Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans
Grist J
(2021)
Future Evolution of an Eddy Rich Ocean Associated with Enhanced East Atlantic Storminess in a Coupled Model Projection
in Geophysical Research Letters
Hallam S
(2021)
Increasing tropical cyclone intensity and potential intensity in the subtropical Atlantic around Bermuda from an ocean heat content perspective 1955-2019
in Environmental Research Letters
| Description | We have investigated the record sea surface temperatures that have developed in the North Atlantic Ocean over the last two years (popularly known as the Big Blue Blob) and found that much of this can be related to the effect of the atmospheric circulation which was characterised by anomalously cold air and strong winds which cooled the ocean. We have also found evidence that the Blob, once it was formed, may have favoured the occurrence of the 2015 European heatwave by influencing the position and strength of the atmospheric jet stream. Further we have uncovered the importance of freshwater discharge from the Arctic via changes to sea ice and freshwater export and/or river runoff/glacier melt. These provide a cap on the surface which prevents mixing and allows the surface to become warmer than it would otherwise be. The resulting changes to surface temperature gradients are able to modify the Jet Stream and favour the development of heatwaves as explained above. A linked set of studies have focussed on understanding why there are large variations over one or more decades in the amount of heat which is stored in the subpolar North Atlantic Ocean as these variations have profound implications for the climate (temperatures and rainfall) of the UK and Europe. The three studies have been conceived and performed by researchers from NOC, BAS and NCAS. We found that on decadal/multidecadal timescales, changes in the Atlantic ocean circulation, specifically the strength of vertical overturning are the main driver of ocean heat content in the Subpolar North Atlantic. Changes in the heat content of the western subpolar region (westwards of Cape Farewell, the tip of Greenland) always occur near the surface initially and only arrive at depth many years later. The penetration to deep levels happens mainly due to continuous downwelling and diffusion at the continental boundaries around Greenland and Labrador, contrary to the previous consensus that intermittent deep convection in the central Labrador Sea plays the dominant role in modifying deep ocean properties. The long timescales uncovered suggest that the ocean heat content and to some extent the sea surface temperatures in the region could potentially be predicted several decades in advance provided the mechanisms involved are captured by forecast models (e.g. realistic representation of downwelling along the boundaries). We know from previous studies that the climate of UK, western and central Europe, West and North Africa and eastern North America are strongly affected by decadal variations in subpolar gyre heat content and SST so there could be great societal benefit from such predictions. Our results were achieved by combining ocean observations of heat content going back to the 1950s, output from state of the art ocean only and climate model simulations. The work builds on two advanced diagnostic techniques: decomposition of temperature anomalies into a heave component which affects density and a spice component which does not; and use of an ocean adjoint model which allows one to compute the sensitivity of the heat content to earlier conditions and external forcing, such as air-sea heat fluxes or windstress. This work has therefore drawn on expertise across the ACSIS programme and would have been much more difficult to achieve if the ACSIS connections had not been in place Going back to the shorter timescales, we have found that sometimes winter atmospheric conditions cool the North Atlantic Ocean more than normal and that the subsurface ocean then remains unusually cool for the whole of the subsequent summer. This extra cold subsurface water is then mixed back up to the surface by stormy weather the next winter and modifies the atmospheric weather systems so that less warm subtropical air is transported towards the British Isles and Western Europe resulting in an increased likelihood of a cold winter. This result could be of help in improving forecasts of winter weather on seasonal timescales. We have also been monitoring the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) since 2004. This circulation brings warm near-surface waters up from the tropics to the sub polar regions between Britain and Labrador and even further north to Norway, whilst bringing colder waters back southwards at great depths (greater than 1000m). We have found that the overturning has weakened substantially (by about 30%) since 2008 (i.e. for more than a decade) and it looks like it was more of a sudden shift rather than a slow trend. This means that currently, the ocean is delivering less heat to the sub polar regions. We are exploring the implications for climate in these regions. We have also been analysing data from the new monitoring array, OSNAP, which goes right across the subpolar North Atlantic. A new result is that much of the variability in the overturning at this latitude is due to changes in the eastern part of the subpolar North Atlantic, rather than in the Labrador Sea (the western part). Associated with this we have also begun to find evidence in models and observations that the surface heat fluxes in the eastern region are important in driving water mass transformation and may be a major driver of the AMOC. |
| Exploitation Route | Understanding the origin and fate of cold sea surface temperature anomalies in the Atlantic might ultimately improve our forecasts of phenomena such as heatwaves and cold winters - with corresponding societal benefit. On longer timescales, separating out the effects of short term (year-to-year) variations due to natural atmospheric variability will help to pin down and understand much longer term trends related to anthropogenic warming and to multidecadal variability of the ocean overturning circulation. Additionally on decadal timescales, there will be considerable societal benefit in being able to predict average sea surface temperature conditions (and associated climatic effects such as hurricane season intensity) over successive ten year (or longer) periods. |
| Sectors | Agriculture, Food and Drink,Energy,Environment,Leisure Activities, including Sports, Recreation and Tourism |
| URL | http://acsis.ac.uk |
| Description | Some of the findings have been cited in the IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate. This has fed into a greater awareness of the severity and impacts of climate change on the part of both the general public and policymakers. Findings have also been cited in the IPCC 6th Assessment Report (AR6) published in 2021. |
| First Year Of Impact | 2021 |
| Sector | Aerospace, Defence and Marine,Environment,Government, Democracy and Justice |
| Impact Types | Societal,Policy & public services |
| Description | Citation in the IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate |
| Geographic Reach | Multiple continents/international |
| Policy Influence Type | Citation in systematic reviews |
| Impact | This report is part of the IPCc series of report and as such has helped to change public and government attitudes to climate change and its impacts. This report is expected to have substantial impacts on government policy in respect of climate change adaptation and mitigation policies, both nationally and internationally. |
| URL | https://www.ipcc.ch/srocc/ |
| Description | Citation in the Marine Climate Change Impacts Partnership |
| Geographic Reach | Multiple continents/international |
| Policy Influence Type | Citation in systematic reviews |
| URL | http://www.mccip.org.uk/media/2013/10_sea_ice_2020.pdf |
| Description | Reports for the Marine Climate Change Impacts Partnership |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Policy Influence Type | Citation in systematic reviews |
| Impact | UK Businesses and Local Governments use the MCCIP Science Review for formulating and implementing adaptation policy with respect to climate change. |
| URL | http://www.mccip.org.uk/climate-smart-adaptation/ |
| Description | (Blue-Action) - Arctic Impact on Weather and Climate |
| Amount | € 8,103,125 (EUR) |
| Funding ID | 727852 |
| Organisation | European Commission |
| Sector | Public |
| Country | European Union (EU) |
| Start | 12/2016 |
| End | 02/2021 |
| Description | (COMFORT) - Our common future ocean in the Earth system - quantifying coupled cycles of carbon, oxygen, and nutrients for determining and achieving safe operating spaces with respect to tipping points |
| Amount | € 8,482,147 (EUR) |
| Funding ID | 820989 |
| Organisation | European Commission |
| Sector | Public |
| Country | European Union (EU) |
| Start | 09/2019 |
| End | 08/2023 |
| Description | Atmospheric Composition and Radiative forcing changes due to UN International Ship Emissions regulations (ACRUISE) |
| Amount | £391,261 (GBP) |
| Funding ID | NE/S005390/1 |
| Organisation | Natural Environment Research Council |
| Sector | Public |
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Start | 01/2019 |
| End | 01/2023 |
| Description | Consequences of Arctic Warming for European Climate and Extreme Weather |
| Amount | £290,138 (GBP) |
| Funding ID | NE/V004875/1 |
| Organisation | Natural Environment Research Council |
| Sector | Public |
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Start | 11/2020 |
| End | 11/2023 |
| Description | Emergence of Climate Hazards |
| Amount | £1,600,000 (GBP) |
| Funding ID | NE/S004602/1 |
| Organisation | Natural Environment Research Council |
| Sector | Public |
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Start | 02/2019 |
| End | 01/2022 |
| Description | Wider Impacts of Subpolar nortH atlantic decadal variaBility on the OceaN and atmospherE' (WISHBONE) |
| Amount | £285,007 (GBP) |
| Funding ID | NE/T013540/1 |
| Organisation | Natural Environment Research Council |
| Sector | Public |
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Start | 09/2020 |
| End | 08/2023 |
| Title | Climate modelling with resolved ocean eddies |
| Description | We have developed a climate model with 25km resolution in the atmosphere and 1/12 degree resolution in the ocean - the latter is sufficient to resolve mesoscale eddies. This is the first time such a capability has been available to UK researchers and our model is one of a handful of such models worldwide. The new model simulates Earths climate with unprecedented fidelity and can be used to investigate a wider number of questions (regional effects of climate change without the need for downscaling, mechanisms and predictability of extreme weather and climate events and many more). The development of this capability keeps the UK at the cutting edge of climate science internationally. |
| Type Of Material | Improvements to research infrastructure |
| Year Produced | 2016 |
| Provided To Others? | Yes |
| Impact | The development of this tool has resulted in a number of publications, published, submitted and in prep. Two published papers are referenced here: Hewitt, Helene T.; Roberts, Malcolm J.; Hyder, Pat; Graham, Tim; Rae, Jamie; Belcher, Stephen E.; Bourdallé-Badie, Romain; Copsey, Dan; Coward, Andrew; Guiavarch, Catherine; Harris, Chris; Hill, Richard; Hirschi, Joël J.-M.; Madec, Gurvan; Mizielinski, Matthew S.; Neininger, Erica; New, Adrian L.; Rioual, Jean-Christophe; Sinha, Bablu; Storkey, David; Shelly, Ann; Thorpe, Livia; Wood, Richard A.. 2016 The impact of resolving the Rossby radius at mid-latitudes in the ocean: results from a high-resolution version of the Met Office GC2 coupled model. Geoscientific Model Development, 9 (10). 3655-3670.10.5194/gmd-9-3655-2016 Roberts, Malcolm J.; Hewitt, Helene T.; Hyder, Pat; Ferreira, David; Josey, Simon A.; Mizielinski, Matthew; Shelly, Ann. 2016 Impact of ocean resolution on coupled air-sea fluxes and large-scale climate. Geophysical Research Letters, 43 (19). 10,430-10,438.10.1002/2016GL070559 |
| URL | http://acsis.ac.uk |
| Title | Intermediate resolution climate model FORTE2 |
| Description | This is a significantly updated version of a fast, inexpensive and low resolution coupled climate model developed previously at the National Oceanography Centre and used for idealised climate experiments.The updated version now runs on parallel processors using MPI software, has a more advanced atmospheric component including a resolved stratosphere and can simulate 300+ model years in 1 day of real time. This opens up the possibility of investigating paleaoclimate with a full primitive equation model, as well as studying contemporary climate and performing climate projections at a fraction of the cost of standard CMIP-style climate models. In particular the model is readily configurable, allowing control over land geometry and orography, ocean topography, and geophysical parameters such as rotation rate, solar input, orbital parameters etc. |
| Type Of Material | Improvements to research infrastructure |
| Year Produced | 2021 |
| Provided To Others? | Yes |
| Impact | As it has just been released, impact is restricted to the publication which documents the model performance |
| URL | https://zenodo.org/record/4108373#.YijBQb3P3rI |
| Title | 1/12 degree ocean/25km atmosphere coupled historical climate simulation |
| Description | Output from a historical climate model simulation of unprecedented resolution, including fields such as ocean and atmosphere temperature, winds, ocean currents and a large number of other variables. |
| Type Of Material | Database/Collection of data |
| Year Produced | 2019 |
| Provided To Others? | Yes |
| Impact | Improved understanding of the influence of resolution climate variability, including the importance of including small scale processes such as mesoscale eddies in order to realistically model air-sea interaction on climate timescales. |
| Title | 1/4 degree historical forced ocean simulation |
| Description | Output from ocean model simulation forced by CORE2 estimates of surface atmospheric conditions. Fields stored are monthly temperature, salinity, ocean currents and other fields for 1958-2007. |
| Type Of Material | Database/Collection of data |
| Year Produced | 2021 |
| Provided To Others? | Yes |
| Impact | Understanding of the proximate cause of the observed variability (increase up to the mid 1990s, and then an ongoing decrease) of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. This has been written up as a journal article: Megann, Alex ; Blaker, Adam ; Josey, Simon ; New, Adrian ; Sinha, Bablu. 2021 Mechanisms for late 20th and early 21st century decadal AMOC variability. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 126 (12). https://doi.org/10.1029/2021JC017865 |
| URL | https://catalogue.ceda.ac.uk/uuid/119a5d4795c94d2e94f610647640edc0 |
| Title | Monthly ocean and sea-ice output from 1/4° NEMO GO6 integration forced by CORE2 data |
| Description | Monthly output from an integration of the GO6 configuration of the NEMO (Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean) ocean and sea-ice model, forced by the CORE2 (Coordinated Ocean-ice Reference Experiments version 2.0) corrected inter-annual forcing (CIAF) surface field dataset. UK Global Ocean GO6 consists of version 3.6 of NEMO and version 5.2.1 of the CICE (Community Ice CodE) sea-ice model, and the present simulation is on the global eORCA025 1/4° grid. The ocean is initialised from a climatology based on the EN3 monthly objective analysis (Ingleby and Huddleston, 2007) averaged over years 2004-2008, and is integrated from 1958 to 2007. The model was run on the Archer supercomputing platform through the Rose/Cylc interface on Puma, and the run ID on the Puma system is u-ap795. The integrations were funded by the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) under the Atlantic Climate System Integrated Study (ACSIS) project (NE/N018044/1). |
| Type Of Material | Database/Collection of data |
| Year Produced | 2021 |
| Provided To Others? | Yes |
| Impact | The data were used to write a paper on AMOC variability 1948-2020: 10.5285/119a5d4795c94d2e94f610647640edc0 |
| URL | https://catalogue.ceda.ac.uk/uuid/119a5d4795c94d2e94f610647640edc0 |
| Title | Monthly ocean and sea-ice output from 1/4° NEMO GO6 integration forced by DFS5.2 data |
| Description | Monthly output from an integration of the UK Global Ocean, GO6, configuration of the NEMO (Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean) ocean and sea-ice model, forced by the DFS5.2 (Drakkar Forcing Set: Dussin et al, 2016) surface field dataset. GO6 consists of version 3.6 of NEMO and version 5.2.1 of the CICE (Community Ice CodE) sea-ice model, and the present simulation is on the global eORCA025 1/4° grid. The ocean is initialised from a climatology based on the EN3 monthly objective analysis (Ingleby and Huddleston, 2007) averaged over years 2004-2008, and is integrated from 1958 to 2015. The sea-ice fields are only available for the period 1958 to 2008. The model was run on the Archer supercomputing platform through the Rose/Cylc interface on Puma, and the run ID on the Puma system is u-ao882. The integrations were funded by the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) under the Atlantic Climate System Integrated Study (ACSIS) project (NE/N018044/1). |
| Type Of Material | Database/Collection of data |
| Year Produced | 2021 |
| Provided To Others? | Yes |
| Impact | The data has been used to write a paper on historical AMOC variability 1948-2020: Megann, Alex ; Blaker, Adam ; Josey, Simon ; New, Adrian ; Sinha, Bablu. 2021 Mechanisms for late 20th and early 21st century decadal AMOC variability. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 126 (12). https://doi.org/10.1029/2021JC017865 |
| URL | https://catalogue.ceda.ac.uk/uuid/a0708d25b4fc44c5ab1b06e12fef2f2e |
| Title | Monthly ocean and sea-ice output from 1/4° NEMO GO6 integration forced by JRA55 data |
| Description | Monthly output from an integration of the UK Global Ocean, GO6, configuration of the NEMO (Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean) ocean and sea-ice model, forced by the JRA-55 (Japanese 55-year atmospheric reanalysis: Tsujino, 2018) surface field dataset. GO6 consists of version 3.6 of NEMO and version 5.2.1 of the CICE (Community Ice CodE) sea-ice model, and the present simulation is on the global eORCA025 1/4° grid. The ocean is initialised from a climatology based on the EN3 monthly objective analysis (Ingleby and Huddleston, 2007) averaged over years 2004-2008, and is integrated from 1958 to 2020. The sea-ice fields are only available for the period 1989 to 2001. The model was run on the Archer supercomputing platform through the Rose/Cylc interface on Puma, and the run ID on the Puma system is u-ba494. The integrations were funded by the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) under the Atlantic Climate System Integrated Study (ACSIS) project (NE/N018044/1). |
| Type Of Material | Database/Collection of data |
| Year Produced | 2021 |
| Provided To Others? | Yes |
| Impact | The data has been used to write a paper on AMOC variability 1948-2020: Megann, Alex ; Blaker, Adam ; Josey, Simon ; New, Adrian ; Sinha, Bablu. 2021 Mechanisms for late 20th and early 21st century decadal AMOC variability. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 126 (12). https://doi.org/10.1029/2021JC017865 |
| URL | https://catalogue.ceda.ac.uk/uuid/4c545155dfd145a1b02a5d0e577ae37d |
| Title | North Atlantic Climate System Integrated Study (ACSIS) Atlantic Ocean medium resolution SST dataset: Reconstructed 5-day, ½ degree, Atlantic Ocean SST (1950-2014) |
| Description | The North Atlantic Climate System Integrated Study (ACSIS) Atlantic Ocean medium resolution SST dataset is a 5-day field of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) on a ½ degree by ½ degree grid from 1950 to 2014 and covers the Atlantic Ocean. The dataset is based on in situ ship and buoy SST observations from the International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set (ICOADS) Revision 3. Measurements which fail initial quality control checks are rejected and for each grid box where there is data a trimmed mean and sample standard deviation are calculated to produce super-observations. These are then expressed as anomalies from the 1981-2014 Climatology (mean, annual, semi-annual and tri-annual) from the European Space Agency (ESA) Climate Change Initiative (CCI) SST dataset (version 2.0) derived from satellite observations. The measurements are then interpolated using Kriging to infill gaps and estimate uncertainties. The spatial covariance used in the Kriging was derived from the CCI SST analysis residuals (CCI SST analysis minus the CCI SST climatology). After interpolation, bias corrections derived from the HadSST.4.0.0.0 dataset are applied. The dataset is available as annual CF complaint NetCDF files, with a total of 65 annual files available. Each file contains: the 5 day mean sea surface temperature; the corresponding climatological value, the sea surface temperature anomaly and the uncertainty in the sea surface temperature. The new dataset has been developed as part of the UK North Atlantic Climate System Integrated Study (ACSIS) for use in validation and comparison with regional climate models. Other potential uses include boundary forcing for regional reanalyses, monitoring and assessment of regional climate change and other studies requiring SST at a resolution higher than typical for the in situ products (i.e. < 1 month, < 1°) and spanning the satellite and pre-satellite era. |
| Type Of Material | Database/Collection of data |
| Year Produced | 2020 |
| Provided To Others? | Yes |
| Impact | Awaiting Impacts |
| URL | https://catalogue.ceda.ac.uk/uuid/83b0cd7e7cc6495a90b4cb967ead3577 |
| Title | Simulations with the sea ice model CICE documenting the impact of improved sea ice physics |
| Description | Sea ice thickness data (CryoSat-2) have been used to identify and correct shortcomings in simulating winter ice growth in the widely used sea ice model CICE. Here, we provide the data from CICE simulations documenting the impact of improved sea ice physics and the sensitivity to forcing and initial data. Adding a model of snow drift and using a different scheme for calculating the ice conductivity improve model results. Sensitivity studies demonstrate that atmospheric winter conditions have little impact on winter ice growth, and the fate of Arctic summer sea ice is largely controlled by atmospheric conditions during the melting season. A full description of the data processing and uncertainties is given by Schröder et al. (2018), 'New insight from CryoSat-2 sea ice thickness for sea ice modelling', in The Cryosphere. All simulations are listed in Tables 1 to 3 of this paper. |
| Type Of Material | Database/Collection of data |
| Year Produced | 2018 |
| Provided To Others? | Yes |
| Title | Subpolar North Atlantic ocean heat content (surface to 1000m) using objectively mapped Argo profiling float data. |
| Description | Monthly ocean heat content (surface to 1000m) in the North Atlantic Subpolar region calculated using objectively mapped Argo profiling float data. This calculation of ocean heat content used potential enthalpy (from TEOS10) instead of potential temperature, which removes the need for a fixed specific heat capacity. Density was from in situ density rather than a fixed value. This was funded by the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) under the Atlantic Climate System Integrated Study (ACSIS) project (NE/N018044/1). |
| Type Of Material | Database/Collection of data |
| Year Produced | 2021 |
| Provided To Others? | Yes |
| Impact | used as an Atlantic Climate Indicator by the NERC ACSIS Programme |
| URL | https://www.bodc.ac.uk/data/published_data_library/catalogue/10.5285/d23c26bc-6e6c-5bbf-e053-6c86abc... |
| Title | Subpolar North Atlantic ocean heat content (surface to 1000m) using the EN4.2.2 temperature data set. |
| Description | Monthly ocean heat content (surface to 1000m) in the North Atlantic Subpolar region, from 1950 to 2020, calculated using the EN4.2.2 temperature data set. This calculation of ocean heat content used potential enthalpy (from TEOS10) instead of potential temperature, which removes the need for a fixed specific heat capacity. Density was from insitu density rather than a fixed value. This was funded by the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) under the Atlantic Climate System Integrated Study (ACSIS) project (NE/N018044/1). |
| Type Of Material | Database/Collection of data |
| Year Produced | 2021 |
| Provided To Others? | Yes |
| Impact | used as an Atlantic Climate Indicator by the ACSIS programme |
| URL | https://www.bodc.ac.uk/data/published_data_library/catalogue/10.5285/d09552c1-5e31-55e1-e053-6c86abc... |
| Description | GreenBlock |
| Organisation | University of Lincoln |
| Department | School of Geography |
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Sector | Academic/University |
| PI Contribution | providing high resolution coupled model output and advice on how to use it |
| Collaborator Contribution | expertise in atmospheric processes related to Greenland Blocking and implications for regional weather and climate |
| Impact | The collaboration has only just started so output and outcomes will occur int he next 2-3 years. The collaboration involves two disciplines: oceanography and meteorology |
| Start Year | 2022 |
| Title | Fast, Parallel intermediate complexity climate model (FORTE 2.0) |
| Description | This is a climate model with relatively low resolution (2.8 degrees in the atmosphere and 2 degrees in the ocean), but optimised for MP and open MP parallel processing so that it is fast enough to multicentennial and millennial climate simulations. It is easily configurable so that different continental and orographic/ocean bathymetry configurations can be explored. The model can be run with our without a stratosphere. There are basic thermodynamic sea ice and land soi/vegetation models |
| Type Of Technology | Software |
| Year Produced | 2021 |
| Open Source License? | Yes |
| Impact | As this has only just been released, we are expecting impacts to build up over time. A paper has been published describing the model: FORTE 2.0: a fast, parallel and flexible coupled climate model. Blaker, A., Joshi, M., Sinha, B., Stevens, D., Smith, R. & Hirschi, J., 19 Jan 2021, In : Geoscientific Model Development. 14, 1, p. 275-293 19 p. |
| URL | http://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3632569 |
| Description | ACSIS - OSNAP - RAPID meeting in Oxford |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Other audiences |
| Results and Impact | Talk about state of the art coupled ocean-atmosphere simulations to study the Atmospheric Response to the 2015 cold anomaly in the North Atlantic Ocean. The meeting was attended by 100+ international scientists |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2017 |
| Description | Article Daily Mail |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Media (as a channel to the public) |
| Results and Impact | Interview with Daily Mail following publication of our article on the Jet Stream in Climate Dynamics. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
| URL | https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-10543985/Jet-stream-brought-storms-UK-sped-8-century... |
| Description | Article and Interview RTE |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
| Results and Impact | Article and interview RTE |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
| URL | https://www.rte.ie/news/2022/0222/1282333-jet-stream/ |
| Description | CLIVAR talk |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Presentation given in the framework of the CLIVAR seminar series on the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
| URL | https://youtu.be/CcQ4qCV2L_U |
| Description | Interview - Neu Zürcher Zeitung |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Media (as a channel to the public) |
| Results and Impact | Interview given to journalist Sven Titz who works for the Neue Zürcher Zeitung. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2020 |
| URL | https://www.nzz.ch/wissenschaft/golfstrom-noch-zeigt-die-atlantikzirkulation-keine-schwaeche-ld.1583... |
| Description | Interview ITV Meridian News |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A broadcast e.g. TV/radio/film/podcast (other than news/press) |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
| Results and Impact | Interview ITW Meridian News |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
| URL | https://www.itv.com/news/meridian/2022-02-22/uk-could-get-more-storms-like-eunice-as-study-shows-jet... |
| Description | Interview Irish Times |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
| Results and Impact | Interview with Irish Times following publication of our article on the Jet Stream. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
| URL | https://www.irishtimes.com/news/environment/change-in-atlantic-jet-stream-making-for-more-powerful-s... |
| Description | Interview New York Times |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Media (as a channel to the public) |
| Results and Impact | Interview with the NY Times journalist Moises Velasquez-Manoff to discuss a possible slowdown of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. Given the large readership of the NY Times I suppose that many people will have read the article even if I cannot put a number on it. More than 400 people have commented though, so it is fair to assume that many thousands read the piece. I think this article sparked quite a bit of discussion in the public but it also highlighted that even within the scientific community there are differing views regarding the AMOC, it's slowdown and likely climatic impacts. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
| URL | https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/03/02/climate/atlantic-ocean-climate-change.html |
| Description | Interview for a movie made by Cornwall Climate Care |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A broadcast e.g. TV/radio/film/podcast (other than news/press) |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
| Results and Impact | Thomas Bell (PML) interviewed with people from Cornwall Climate Care (https://www.cornwallclimate.org/) for a movie at the Penlee Point Atmospheric Observatory. The movie is currently being edited. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2020 |
| URL | https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCaXeARL6x-TKMnqUgZB_lvQ |
| Description | policy briefing for MEPs |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
| Results and Impact | Policy briefing on Extreme Events & Tipping Points to MEPs. Intended to raise awareness of these issues in European Parliament. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2020 |
| URL | http://blue-action.eu/policy-feed/extreme-events-tipping-points |