Towards Forecast-based Preparedness Action (ForPAc): Probabilistic forecast information for defensible preparedness decision-making and action

Lead Research Organisation: Met Office
Department Name: Government Business

Abstract

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Planned Impact

ForPAc is carefully designed to have direct and measurable impact during, and well beyond the timeframe and location of the project activities in Kenya. We will utilise a Participatory Impact Pathways Analysis (PIPA) framework and method to plan, monitor and evaluate the impact of our project. This will be rooted in, and flow from a coherent 'Theory of Change' established early in the project. Management structures include; 1). An impact sub-group led by co-I APHRC. 2) An advisory Panel (contingent on advice from SHEAR KE) providing strategic guidance, with representation from key regional organisations, civil society, donors and multi-laterals. ForPAc will generate impact because (i) we will improve existing EWS (ii) we include the key decision-making agencies and intermediaries to communities, building on partnerships already well established. The case study method of co-production of knowledge and stakeholder-driven deliberative processes will result in co-ownership of the process, direct applicability and development impact. We will strengthen the 'community of practice' in Kenya and beyond including 'champions' in relevant organisations, for continued legacy.
Benefits will accrue at 3 levels
(i) Local stakeholders. 1) 'delivery agencies' at Kenya county level e.g. government (agriculture, emergency services), and NGOs' operatives 2) communities themselves. Benefits: greater awareness of ForPAc innovations in early warning information and tools/approaches for preparedness planning. Method: enabling process of deep stakeholder engagement from the outset, starting with EWS mapping processes, and iterative process of EWS and portal development, within our continuous monitoring and evaluation.
(ii) National mandated agencies. The NDMA, KMD, Red Cross Kenya and NGOs within ALERT network. Operational practices will be directly influenced by the project's forecast-based action research e.g. improved methods of risk forecast production, early warning advice based on agreed decision "triggers" and improved standard operating procedures through new and improved tools. Through collaboration, iteration and co-production ForPAc will ensure a real sense of ownership of these innovations. Enhanced EWS capacity will strengthen national trust in the mandated agencies - encouraging uptake across government support in the future and will inform policy planning on DRR by government ministries. Outputs (products, portals training modules and decision tools) and lessons will be shared: Across IGAD nations through ICPAC the Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum process; Across Africa through the wider networks of the team. In this way legacy impact is ensured.
(iii) 'Advocacy' level. Regional and international agencies that set agendas for DRR, such as ISDR, FAO, WMO, WFP, FEWSNet and national donors including DfID, utilising the extensive existing policy network of the project consortium. We will inform key policy makers and forums of best practice, cutting edge science, emerging challenges in the science and implementation of our innovations in EWS. Method: a programme of policy engagement including workshops and meetings with invited high-level agency representatives, interventions at forums, policy briefings.
Our UK/Kenya team has an excellent track record of delivering impact and policy engagement (see CVs and track records). Our Co-I's Pelling and Visman have experience in NERC Knowledge Exchange. ForPAc impact will draw on lessons from a wide array of related projects with Co-I involvement e.g. FCFA IMPALA and consortia; AdA consortium; ALERT; Urban-Ark; the Red Cross-Kenya Resilience Initiative; BRACED projects; WISER projects; International forecast initiatives of the WMO (SWFDP, S2S); EUROSIP and Copernicus seasonal predictions; Foresight 'Reducing Risks of Future Disasters'. These projects will also be cross-fertilised by ForPAc potentially multiplying our impact considerably.
 
Description Findings:
- the potential of the Met Office Global Hazard Map to assist accuracy of Kenya Met Department warnings of heavy rain has been demonstrated in trials (Kilavi et al 2018, MacLeod, Kilavi et al. 2021)
- the potential of dynamical model 1-month range (sub-seasonal) forecasts to provide KMD and other East Africa Met services with valuable information on likely weather trends at 2 week and sometimes 3 week range has been demonstrated (Kilavi et al 2018, MacLeod, Dankers et al. 2021, and in project trials)
- the skill of seasonal forecasts for the GHA region's OND season from climate model-based systems varies considerably. There is potential to improve the quality of ICPAC's seasonal forecast output through selecting the most skilful of the available prediction models (paper in preparation)
- statistical calibration (adjustment/correction) of climate model-based seasonal forecasts can significantly improve prediction skill (Colman et al 2019)
- new discoveries (from FCFA-IMPALA) on the drivers of the East Africa Long Rains have been used to develop a new forecasting tool.
- new understanding into the interplay of remote drivers of rainfall variability in the East Africa Short-Rains season has strengthened interpretation of model forecasts and the basis of practical prediction (MacLeod et al. 2020).

Developments:
A key development is ICPAC's move to an objective seasonal forecasting approach based on dynamical models. This move has been aided by ForPAc's evaluation work on models, by work on model calibration (Colman et al. 2019) and by support at the workshops that produce the forecasts. The previous approach included substantial forecaster judgement - and was shown in early work (see Walker et al 2019) to result in forecasts with undesirable subjective characteristics.
Exploitation Route The above findings and tools developed/introduced can be put to use by ICPAC, KMD and other National Meteorological Services in the Greater Horn of Africa region to improve weather and climate services to stakeholders and increase resilience to weather and climate variability

The findings on the skill of GCM seasonal forecasts and benefits of calibration influenced the adoption at ICPAC of objective and approach to seasonal forecasting - based on GCM outputs. The methodology and experience can be used by other Regional Climate Centres moving (under WMO recommendation) to a objective forecast procedure.

Learning on communication of forecast information, particularly probabilistic information, has been embodied in an online course through collaboration with the SHEAR Integration and Impact project L2CP and can be used in future training initiatives.
Sectors Agriculture, Food and Drink,Energy,Environment,Healthcare,Transport
URL https://sites.google.com/view/forpac-shear/home
 
Description There are no confirmed social or economic impacts at this stage, however emerging socio/economic impacts include: - Access to the Global Hazard Map is considered to have contributed to improved quality of sort-range (3days) heavy rain warnings by the Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD) (MacLeod, Kilavi et al . 2021). A notable example is the warnings for heavy rain that triggered landslides in West Pokot in November 2019 and resulted in over 70 fatalities. However, an effective linkage from warning to action is required for socio/economic benefit and the degree to which actions were taken on the basis of the warning is currently unclear. - The objective seasonal forecasting system introduced by ICPAC (with ForPAc assistance) is a transformational organisational change - a major paradigm change after over two decades of using the semi-subjective consensus approach still employed by many regional centres. The change is widely perceived to have improved the quality of forecasts for the GHA region. While it is too early to confirm this for certain, there is no doubt that forecast probabilities are "bolder", which aids decision making. This in turn increases uptake of the forecast and thus potential for socio/economic benefit. - The development, with KMD, of customized seasonal forecasts of Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and work with the National Drought Management Authority (NDMA) on integrating them into risk assessment for drought is an important step in bringing forecast information into the drought planning process. The initiative has had significant scale with a real-time pilot of the forecasts over two Short-Rains seasons increasing to cover 7 arid and semi-arid counties. Significant organisational change has occurred in that senior management at NDMA (the director) has fully supported the initiative and is eager for it to continue and expand in scale (together with the other ForPAc forecast products of Soil Moisture and Vegetation Condition Index). Thus there is emerging potential socio/economic benefit through enhanced resilience to drought. - The technical capacity for seasonal forecasting at KMD has been enhanced through centring the means of production for the SPI forecasts as well as the skills required "in-house", both through co-working with KMD and through support of formal training for over 15 staff members. This has potential for wider benefit to KMD in meeting requirements for seasonal forecasts in other sectors and thus for socio/economic benefit.
First Year Of Impact 2019
Sector Agriculture, Food and Drink,Energy,Environment,Healthcare,Security and Diplomacy
Impact Types Societal,Economic,Policy & public services
 
Description Change in forecasting practice: the ICPAC seasonal forecast for the Greater Horn of Africa changed from semi-objective to objective methodology
Geographic Reach Africa 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
Impact ForPAc has contributed significantly to transformational change in the way ICPAC prepares its seasonal forecasts. The forecast are now prepared using an objective, repeatable and documented approach based on output from dynamical model systems. Previously, the forecast represented a semi-subjective mix of statistical methods, dynamical model outputs and forecaster judgement. The move to an objective procedure is in line with WMO recommendations for WMO-designated Regional Climate Centres, and ICPAC is the first African centre to adopt the approach. It has been applied successfully to generate 3 forecasts: for the JJAS 2019, OND 2019 and MAM 2020 seasons. Met Office supported ICPAC in these changes through leading evaluation work on contributing models, and advising on objective procedures during the forecast preparation.
URL https://medium.com/@icpac/improved-seasonal-forecast-for-eastern-africa-57872645f449
 
Description Introduction of new prediction practice for East Africa Long Rains prediction
Geographic Reach Local/Municipal/Regional 
Policy Influence Type Influenced training of practitioners or researchers
 
Description Report to the W2SIP Technical Advisory Committee on GCM evaluation
Geographic Reach Africa 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
 
Title The Global Hazard Map (GHM) 
Description The Met Office Global Hazard Map (GHM) is a system previously developed to visualise forecasts (up to 10 days ahead) for High Impact Events (HIE) together with a range of vulnerability information (e.g. degree of land surface saturation as well as non-meteorological data such as population density) to help gauge impact. The GHM uses forecasts from the Met Office and ECMWF short-range ensembles (out to 7 days) to predict and visualise the probability of a range of HIE. ForPAc is customising the GHM for the Kenya/GHA region. A first version of the East Africa version was set up in preparation for the visit of KMD staff to the UK in September 2018, which will form the basis for further customisation in the coming months. Meanwhile ForPAc partners KMD and ICPAC, as well as a number of WMO Severe Weather Forecast Demonstration Projects (SWFDP) regional centres (including Nairobi and Dar Es Salaam) have been given access to the current external version of the GHM on a trial basis. An online google form has been developed for partners, including KMD and ICPAC, to feedback on the forecasts and the impacts of HIE. KMD in particular has made use of the GHM in their operational warning process, for example during the 2018 MAM season as described in the Kilavi et al. (2018) paper. The external GHM has been migrated to an Amazon cloud server in preparation for providing KMD and ICPAC access to the EAHM. 
Type Of Material Improvements to research infrastructure 
Year Produced 2017 
Provided To Others? Yes  
Impact The GHM has been used actively by KMD with other available tools to trigger issuance of early warnings. 
URL https://ghm.dev.globalhazardmap.metoffice.cloud/globalhazardmap
 
Description ForPAc partners 
Organisation ICPAC
Country Kenya 
Sector Private 
PI Contribution The Met Office research team is leading WP3 of ForPAc: "Understanding and forecasting High Impact Events (HIE): strengthening seamless forecast components for national for and regional Early Warning Systems to serve Forecast-based Action". In this WP the Met Office, with University of Oxford and also with regional partners KMD and ICPAC and in co-production with user partners NDMA and Kenya Red Cross are researching methods and tools to strengthen KMD and ICPAC forecasts for use in Forecast-based Action.
Collaborator Contribution University of Sussex (project leaders) and KCL are working primarily in other WPs to map the current Early Warning Systems, define the HIE of priority interest and to integrate resulting methodology into Forecast-based Action systems and trials. NDMA and Kenya Red Cross are climate information user partners in the project - providing e.g. inputs on requirements, data for co-production, participating in trials.
Impact A baseline review of forecast procedures at KMD and ICPAC; Initial trial use of the Met Office Global Hazard Map and feedback; Emerging picture of the HIE required to be forecast.
Start Year 2017
 
Description ForPAc partners 
Organisation International Committee of the Red Cross
Department Kenya Red Cross Society
Country Kenya 
Sector Charity/Non Profit 
PI Contribution The Met Office research team is leading WP3 of ForPAc: "Understanding and forecasting High Impact Events (HIE): strengthening seamless forecast components for national for and regional Early Warning Systems to serve Forecast-based Action". In this WP the Met Office, with University of Oxford and also with regional partners KMD and ICPAC and in co-production with user partners NDMA and Kenya Red Cross are researching methods and tools to strengthen KMD and ICPAC forecasts for use in Forecast-based Action.
Collaborator Contribution University of Sussex (project leaders) and KCL are working primarily in other WPs to map the current Early Warning Systems, define the HIE of priority interest and to integrate resulting methodology into Forecast-based Action systems and trials. NDMA and Kenya Red Cross are climate information user partners in the project - providing e.g. inputs on requirements, data for co-production, participating in trials.
Impact A baseline review of forecast procedures at KMD and ICPAC; Initial trial use of the Met Office Global Hazard Map and feedback; Emerging picture of the HIE required to be forecast.
Start Year 2017
 
Description ForPAc partners 
Organisation Kenya Meteorological Department
Country Kenya 
Sector Public 
PI Contribution The Met Office research team is leading WP3 of ForPAc: "Understanding and forecasting High Impact Events (HIE): strengthening seamless forecast components for national for and regional Early Warning Systems to serve Forecast-based Action". In this WP the Met Office, with University of Oxford and also with regional partners KMD and ICPAC and in co-production with user partners NDMA and Kenya Red Cross are researching methods and tools to strengthen KMD and ICPAC forecasts for use in Forecast-based Action.
Collaborator Contribution University of Sussex (project leaders) and KCL are working primarily in other WPs to map the current Early Warning Systems, define the HIE of priority interest and to integrate resulting methodology into Forecast-based Action systems and trials. NDMA and Kenya Red Cross are climate information user partners in the project - providing e.g. inputs on requirements, data for co-production, participating in trials.
Impact A baseline review of forecast procedures at KMD and ICPAC; Initial trial use of the Met Office Global Hazard Map and feedback; Emerging picture of the HIE required to be forecast.
Start Year 2017
 
Description ForPAc partners 
Organisation King's College London
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution The Met Office research team is leading WP3 of ForPAc: "Understanding and forecasting High Impact Events (HIE): strengthening seamless forecast components for national for and regional Early Warning Systems to serve Forecast-based Action". In this WP the Met Office, with University of Oxford and also with regional partners KMD and ICPAC and in co-production with user partners NDMA and Kenya Red Cross are researching methods and tools to strengthen KMD and ICPAC forecasts for use in Forecast-based Action.
Collaborator Contribution University of Sussex (project leaders) and KCL are working primarily in other WPs to map the current Early Warning Systems, define the HIE of priority interest and to integrate resulting methodology into Forecast-based Action systems and trials. NDMA and Kenya Red Cross are climate information user partners in the project - providing e.g. inputs on requirements, data for co-production, participating in trials.
Impact A baseline review of forecast procedures at KMD and ICPAC; Initial trial use of the Met Office Global Hazard Map and feedback; Emerging picture of the HIE required to be forecast.
Start Year 2017
 
Description ForPAc partners 
Organisation National Drought Management Authority
Country Kenya 
Sector Public 
PI Contribution The Met Office research team is leading WP3 of ForPAc: "Understanding and forecasting High Impact Events (HIE): strengthening seamless forecast components for national for and regional Early Warning Systems to serve Forecast-based Action". In this WP the Met Office, with University of Oxford and also with regional partners KMD and ICPAC and in co-production with user partners NDMA and Kenya Red Cross are researching methods and tools to strengthen KMD and ICPAC forecasts for use in Forecast-based Action.
Collaborator Contribution University of Sussex (project leaders) and KCL are working primarily in other WPs to map the current Early Warning Systems, define the HIE of priority interest and to integrate resulting methodology into Forecast-based Action systems and trials. NDMA and Kenya Red Cross are climate information user partners in the project - providing e.g. inputs on requirements, data for co-production, participating in trials.
Impact A baseline review of forecast procedures at KMD and ICPAC; Initial trial use of the Met Office Global Hazard Map and feedback; Emerging picture of the HIE required to be forecast.
Start Year 2017
 
Description ForPAc partners 
Organisation University of Oxford
Department Department of Physics
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution The Met Office research team is leading WP3 of ForPAc: "Understanding and forecasting High Impact Events (HIE): strengthening seamless forecast components for national for and regional Early Warning Systems to serve Forecast-based Action". In this WP the Met Office, with University of Oxford and also with regional partners KMD and ICPAC and in co-production with user partners NDMA and Kenya Red Cross are researching methods and tools to strengthen KMD and ICPAC forecasts for use in Forecast-based Action.
Collaborator Contribution University of Sussex (project leaders) and KCL are working primarily in other WPs to map the current Early Warning Systems, define the HIE of priority interest and to integrate resulting methodology into Forecast-based Action systems and trials. NDMA and Kenya Red Cross are climate information user partners in the project - providing e.g. inputs on requirements, data for co-production, participating in trials.
Impact A baseline review of forecast procedures at KMD and ICPAC; Initial trial use of the Met Office Global Hazard Map and feedback; Emerging picture of the HIE required to be forecast.
Start Year 2017
 
Description ForPAc partners 
Organisation University of Sussex
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution The Met Office research team is leading WP3 of ForPAc: "Understanding and forecasting High Impact Events (HIE): strengthening seamless forecast components for national for and regional Early Warning Systems to serve Forecast-based Action". In this WP the Met Office, with University of Oxford and also with regional partners KMD and ICPAC and in co-production with user partners NDMA and Kenya Red Cross are researching methods and tools to strengthen KMD and ICPAC forecasts for use in Forecast-based Action.
Collaborator Contribution University of Sussex (project leaders) and KCL are working primarily in other WPs to map the current Early Warning Systems, define the HIE of priority interest and to integrate resulting methodology into Forecast-based Action systems and trials. NDMA and Kenya Red Cross are climate information user partners in the project - providing e.g. inputs on requirements, data for co-production, participating in trials.
Impact A baseline review of forecast procedures at KMD and ICPAC; Initial trial use of the Met Office Global Hazard Map and feedback; Emerging picture of the HIE required to be forecast.
Start Year 2017
 
Description Regional technical guidance for ICPAC 
Organisation World Meteorological Organization
Country Switzerland 
Sector Public 
PI Contribution The WMO has recently published guidance for Regional Climate Centres on production of objective seasonal forecasts "Guidance on Operational Practices for Objective Seasonal Forecasting" (WMO No. 1246). Richard Graham (Met Office) was offered and accepted a short consultancy to customise the guidance to the East Africa region. This has provided a good opportunity to add value to ForPAc's work under WP3.4 "Strengthening forecast tools and procedures at ICPAC (and KMD)" The report to WMO includes recommendations emerging from ForPAc work on model evaluation (e.g. on selecting the most skilful models) and on awareness raising regarding the different skill levels of the MAM and OND seasons.
Collaborator Contribution WMO set the parameters for the regional customisation of the guidance.
Impact So far a draft report on regional guidance to WMO. WMO will use the report to guide ongoing initiatives to strengthen ICPAC's operations. It is a climate prediction collaboration (not multidisciplinary)
Start Year 2020
 
Description SHEAR Impact and Integration project: Learning to CoProduce (L2CP) 
Organisation University College London
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution L2CP, a project under the SHEAR Integration and Impact programme, was led by UCL. L2CP developed an online course for post-graduate meteorological students (or those engaged in studies related to meteorology, such as hydro-met and agri-met) to strengthen their engagement with decision-makers and users. Met Office contribution was to prepare one of the modules of the course, specifically on the "The probabilistic nature of weather and climate information: quantifying, interpreting and communicating forecast uncertainty". Training materials developed and rehearsed in ForPAc (as well as other projects) formed the basis of this. L2CP thus provided a means to increase ForPAc impact by upscaling the capacity to training to other learners and countries. The online course is available via the Walker Academy, University of Reading portal and has had one extensive trial.
Collaborator Contribution UCL led the project and contributed to other modules of the course. Reading Uinversity, Walker Academy contributed to other modules and hosted the course on its learning portal. University of Oxford, ICPAC, KMD, ANACIM and Kenya Red Cross all contributed to other modules
Impact An online course for post-graduate meteorological students (or those engaged in studies related to meteorology, such as hydro-met and agri-met) to strengthen their engagement with decision-makers and users. Multi-disciplinary: climate scientists and social scientists
Start Year 2020
 
Description SHEAR-FATHUM 
Organisation University of Reading
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution The FATHUM (Forecasts for Anticipatory Humanitarian Action) project led by University of Reading is working on flood early warning in Uganda, Mozambique and South Africa. At present the collaboration comprises sharing of plans and methodologies. Exact roles of partners is still to be defined.
Collaborator Contribution The FATHUM (Forecasts for Anticipatory Humanitarian Action) project led by University of Reading is working on flood early warning in Uganda, Mozambique and South Africa. At present the collaboration comprises sharing of plans and methodologies. Exact roles of partners is still to be defined. During the KMD visit to the UK in January 2019, a meeting a ForPAc/FATHUM meeting took place at ECMWF between KMD, Met Office, Reading University and ECMWF to identify benefits of further collaboration on flood forecasting for Africa (including East Africa).
Impact At ForPAc/FATHUM meeting KMD were introduced to the GloFAS system
Start Year 2019
 
Description The GCRF African SWIFT (Science for Weather Information and Forecasting Techniques) project 
Organisation University of Reading
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution Kenya is one of the 4 African countries that are partners in SWIFT, and KMD are partners - so there is synergy with ForPAc. The contributions have been primarily around the SWIFT forecast "test-bed" activities, specifically those done in April 2019 for short-range forecasts and in November 2019 for sub-seasonal (1-month ahead) forecasts. The SWIFT test-beds are intensive, live, real-time forecasting exercises at which weather forecasters from different institutions come together with researchers and forecast users for a limited period of time to advance towards co-production of forecast products tailored to the requirement of users. 1. April 2019: as part of ForPAc, Met Office provide MOGREPS-G rainfall forecasts for Nairobi County and the Nzoia river basin. These forecasts are delivered in CSV format, providing forecasters with ensemble statistics that can be used as input for flood forecasting models. For Nzoia, the forecasts provide daily rainfall acumulations (in mm) from the 10th, 50th and 90th percentile ensemble members. These percentiles can then be used as best-, average- and worst-case inputs into the GFFS (Galway Flood Forecasting System); forecasts must be entered into this system manually, so this "3 member forecast" approach saves a lot of time and reduces potential for human error when entering values. The Nzoia region-average rainfall is a weighted average of all model grid points which fall within a shapefile of the Nzoia basin; grid points which are only partly enclosed within the basin are weighted based on the proportion of the grid point that falls within the basin. For Nairobi, the MOGREPS-G forecasts provide the probabilities of daily rainfall accumulations exceeding 10, 20 and 30 mm over Nairobi. The Nairobi region-average rainfall is an average of all model grid points which fall within a 0.25 x 0.25 degree region centred on Nairobi (1.29° S, 36.82° E). These forecasts are being delivered 4 times per day (once for each MOGREPS-G cycle). 2. November 2019: ForPAc and SWIFT (as well as WISER-W2SIP - see other collaborations) collaborated on a workshop on sub-seasonal forecasting and coproduction. ForPAc trained 3 KMD forecasters in sub-seasonal prediction and facilitated 6 ForPAc users (MRCS, NDMA, Min of Agriculture Kitui, Disaster Management and Coordination (Nairobi) and the Daraja project (aiding resilience of informal dwellings) to participate in the SWIFT-led coproduction sessions
Collaborator Contribution 1. April 2019: SWIFT partners organised and led the test-bed providing ForPAc with an opportunity to trial and gain feedback on the MOGREPS products developed provided 2. November 2019: SWIFT partners led the coproduction side of the workshop, introducing ForPAc users to the opportunities and challenges of sub-seasonal range prediction, enabling them to learn and exchange views with other users from Nigeria, Ghana and Sengal.
Impact Feedback on MOGREPS rainfall products (multi-disciplinary with KMD hydrology expert) User inputs to inform development of sub-seasonal forecast products (not yet user specific)
Start Year 2019
 
Description WISER2 Support to ICPAC project (W2SIP) 
Organisation ICPAC
Country Kenya 
Sector Private 
PI Contribution There are synergies between ForPAc objectives in strengthening forecast processes at ICPAC and W2SIP objectives to develop a consolidated ICPAC forecasting process. Met Office is acting as a link between the two activities, in part through Met Office place on the W2SIP Technical Advisory Committee. Some W2SIP resource (in addition to ForPAc resource) is used to facilitate this collaboration.
Collaborator Contribution There are synergies between ForPAc objectives in strengthening forecast processes at ICPAC and W2SIP objectives to develop a consolidated ICPAC forecasting process. Met Office is acting as a link between the two activities, in part through Met Office place on the W2SIP Technical Advisory Committee. ICPAC resource for this work is from ForPAc.
Impact A report on GCM evaluation results (reported under "Other Outputs & Knowledge/Future Steps")
Start Year 2018
 
Description ForPAc event at the 48th Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum, Mombasa, Nairobi, 12-13 February 2018 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Regional
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact ForPAc personnel from the Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD), The IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC), the Kenya Red Cross Society (KRCS) and the Met Office (UK) participated in the 48th Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF48), 12-13 February 2018, Mombasa Kenya. The Forum was attended by NMHSs from the region, including most of the NMHS directors, as well as users from Agriculture, Livestock, Food Security, Health, Water and Energy, Conflict Early Warning, DRR, Media and other sectors. NGOs and donors also participated. The Forum discussed the performance of the OND 2017 consensus forecast and reviewed the responses to the forecast and ensuing climate impacts across the user community. The consensus forecast for the MAM 2018 season was released and users prepared their planned responses with cross-sectoral discussion in plenary. With kind facilitation from ICPAC the ForPAc team also held a side event/stall in the poster/refreshment area. The team engaged with users and other forum participants in one-on-one question and answer sessions on ForPAc objectives and Forecast-based Action. Participants were invited to complete a questionnaire gathering information on High Impact Events of particular concern across the GHA region. The ForPAc event/stall was advertised in the plenary stage on the first day. The stall, which included posters on ForPAc structure and objectives, received a great deal of attention with many ForPAc flyers and information sheets disseminated and many lively conversations.
Additionally, outputs from the current form of the GCM forecast calibration procedures described in "Other Outputs & Knowledge/Future Steps" contributed to discussions in the pre-GHACOF48 workshop that prepared the MAM 2018 GHA regional consensus outlook. ForPAc is acknowledged in the published forecast document.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
URL http://www.icpac.net/
 
Description Greater Horn Of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF) 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Regional
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Met Office participated in the 49th, 50th and 51st GHACOFs with part funding from ForPAc. GHACOF is a two-stage process. First there is a pre-COF workshop in which NMHS representatives of 10 ICPAC member-state countries assemble at ICPAC (Nairobi) for capacity training in seasonal forecasting and to prepare the regional consensus prediction; Second a forum between climate scientists and users from a wide range of sectors is convened. Sectors participating include: Agriculture; Food Security; Water & Energy; Conflict Early Warning; Livestock; Disaster Risk Management; Health; and Media. At the forum the consensus outlook is provided to users and there is a multi-disciplinary discussion on how stakeholders will respond to the predicted climate signals.

Met Office engagement has been both with both the pre-COF and the GHACOF. At the pre-COF training the 10 NMHS representatives have been trained on the GCM calibration process as well as the new prediction procedure for March-May season (at GHACOF51) - see the section on "Other Outputs & Knowledge/Future Steps".

At GHACOF51 these climate prediction advances were also conveyed in lay terms to the user community
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
URL http://icpac.net/wp-content/uploads/GHACOF51_Statement.pdf
 
Description Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forums 2019/2020 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Met Office participated in the 52nd, 53rd and 54th GHACOFs with part funding from ForPAc. GHACOF is a two-stage process. First there is a pre-COF workshop in which NMHS representatives of 10 ICPAC member-state countries assemble at ICPAC (Nairobi) for capacity training in seasonal forecasting, to assist in preparation of the GHACOF regional seasonal outlook which will inform their national seasonal outlooks; Second a forum between climate scientists and users from a wide range of sectors is convened. Sectors participating include: Agriculture; Food Security; Water & Energy; Conflict Early Warning; Livestock; Disaster Risk Management; Health; and Media. At the forum the forecast developed at the pre-COF is provided to users and there is a multi-disciplinary discussion on how stakeholders will respond to the predicted climate signals.
Met Office ForPAc engagement has been both with both the pre-COF and the GHACOF. At the pre-COF training the 10 NMHS representatives have been trained on the GCM calibration process (see WP3.2 2019).

Specific activities included:
Pre-COF and GHACOF52: ForPAc contributed to the transition from the former semi-objective seasonal forecasting method used by ICPAC to an objective methodology based on dynamical model outputs. The forecast period was June-September 2019. This is reported in detail in WP3.4 (2019), with the associated dynamical model verification work reported under WP3.3 (2019). ForPAc contributions also leveraged Met Office membership of the WMO Ad hoc Task Force on Regional Climate Forecast Operationalisation.

Pre-COF and GHACOF53: ForPAc inputs and guidance on procedures for objective forecasting were contributed. The forecast period was October-December 2019. In addition Met Office contributed to an event to promote the Forecast-based Action (FbA) approach attended by about 50 persons.

Pre-COF and GHACOF54: ForPAc inputs and guidance on procedures for objective forecasting were contributed. The forecast period was March-May 2020.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
URL https://medium.com/@icpac/improved-seasonal-forecast-for-eastern-africa-57872645f449
 
Description Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forums 2020 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Regional
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Met Office participated in the 55th and 56th GHACOFs with part funding from ForPAc. For the first time these forums were hosted online because of covid19 travel restrictions. GHACOF is a two-stage process, hosted by ForPAc partners ICPAC. Part 1 is a pre-COF workshop in which NMHS representatives of 10 countries of the GHA collaborate with ICPAC to generate the regional seasonal outlook which will inform their national seasonal outlooks. The Met Office as a WMO-designated provider of seasonal forecast data advise this process, including through use of model verification studies of WP3.3. Capacity training is also delivered to the NMHSs at the pre-COF and Met Office have trained Kenya personnel as well as representatives of other GHA countries on the model calibration techniques of WP3.2. Part 2, is a forum between climate scientists and users from a wide range of sectors (see previous year's entries) the prime purpose is to foster engagement between the climate information producers and information users and to communicate the forecast and jointly prepare response strategies. Met Office assist in preparation of the GHACOF Technical Statement which describes the forecast and the methods of its production.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2020
URL https://www.icpac.net/ghacof56/
 
Description Presentation and panel discussion at the African Climate Risks Conference, Addis Ababa, 7-9 October 2019 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Held under the theme 'Dismantling barriers to urgent climate change adaptation actions,' the first African Climate Risks Conference (ACRC), provided an open platform for sharing the latest climate research in Africa among researchers, policy makers, practitioners, and development partners.

A presentation "Climate Services - some examples, with lessons, challenges and opportunities was presented in a Keynote and Discussion session on "Climate Services Initiatives in Africa". The presentation included examples from the FbA approach followed in the Kitui drought case study (see WP3.2 (2019)).
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
URL https://www.africanclimaterisksconference2019.org
 
Description WISER Support to ICPAC (W2SIP) Technical Advisory Committee meeting 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Richard Graham (Met Office) sits on the W2SIP Technical Advisory Committee. Its terms of reference include:
- Review and advise on the project's GPC evaluation methodology (aimed at informing choice of inputs to the consolidated seasonal forecast multi-model)
- Review and advise on results of evaluations, the implications for composition of the multi-model used by ICPAC, and changes to operational procedures
- Review and advise on strategies to increase forecast objectivity in the GHACOF consensus and alignment with WMO recommendations for RCCs and RCOFs

At the meeting of the TAC on 13 February 2019 the results of GCM evaluations (conducted in large part within ForPAc and described under the section on "Other Outputs & Knowledge/Future Steps) were presented and discussed.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018