FATHUM: Forecasts for AnTicipatory HUManitarian action

Disaster managers and development planners from around the world have realized that their skills and expertise could be put into action well before an extreme event happens, to enormously reduce suffering and avoid catastrophe. While this type of action was historically not possible, new "Forecast-based Financing" systems are now being piloted in more than 15 countries. These pilots automatically trigger preparedness actions based on a forecast of an extreme event, providing financing before a potential disaster actually happens.

However, in many flood-prone locations in sub Saharan Africa, the dynamics of flooding are not well understood, nor is there clarity on what should be done if certain types of flooding are forecasted. What is driving the flooding, and the flood forecasts? What preparedness actions build resilience, and which ones undermine local capacities?

The FATHUM team proposes to bring together a group of interdisciplinary researchers who will work with the existing pilots to analyze and research how this new type of Forecast-based Financing system can quickly respond to forecasts of extreme events, while still contributing to long-term resilience goals and reducing the need for disaster response.

The first group of researchers will tackle flooding itself. A mixed group of hydrologists and climate scientists will explore the causes of different types of floods, and identify what atmospheric patterns could allow the most important types of floods to be predicted. Opening two positions for "Applied Forecasting Impact Fellows", much of the research will be carried out by scientists from the African regions that are being studied, and will culminate in recommendations and maps for predictability in other regions that could also implement such Forecast-based Financing systems.

The second group of researchers, will explore further the "why" of flooding. They will investigate the reasons behind the fact that certain floods are more impactful than others, and identify patterns of resilience stemming from local and indigenous knowledge. This will be grounded in an understanding of the rapidly changing environment in sub-Saharan Africa, ultimately helping identify what forecast-based actions can contribute to long-term meaningful change. While there is a good deal of research on both resilience building and disaster response, disaster managers in the existing 15 pilots are struggling to understand what types of action can meaningfully fit in this "forecast-based" middle ground. FATHUM researchers will work directly with the practitioners to explore these answers.

The third research group builds on the first two, examining more concretely how humanitarian systems are currently structured, and where Forecast-based Financing can fit in. Why do humanitarians not already make use of the many types of flood forecasts around the world? FATHUM will map the science-policy-practice interface to identify what promotes or inhibits the use of forecast information, and what "successful" use of such information really looks like.

Lastly, the fourth research stream is an interdisciplinary group of researchers that will explore the potential and constraints for scaling up the concept of Forecast-based Financing. Integration with existing systems, such as safety nets and risk insurance schemes, will be explored collaboratively with the existing pilot projects.

Ultimately, FATHUM is a novel combination: expertise from academia that is integrated seamlessly into existing disaster risk management projects, allowing practitioners to work with scientists to self-examine and reflect on a game-changing new way of working in the humanitarian sector. Critical scrutiny of the hydrometeorological aspects as well as the socioeconomic implications of taking action based on a forecast will provide a foundation for humanitarians and development practitioners worldwide to build on in their own applications of this concept.

The research proposed in FATHUM has been designed to both strengthen the significant investment in 'Forecast-based Financing' pilot studies from several governmental donors and to inform policy within UN initiatives which feature FbF, such as 'Anticipate, Absorb, Reshape' (A2R), launched at COP21. FATHUM will combine research excellence with development and capacity-building impact. These joint considerations are embedded in the programme of work from the outset.
The intended beneficiaries of the research are spread across a variety of scales.
FATHUM will enable national Red Cross Societies and the World Food Programme to reach local communities with targeted and appropriate humanitarian action in advance of a disaster occurring, thereby reducing the impact of disasters on lives and livelihoods
FATHUM will strengthen the national capacity of the Mozambique Red Cross Society and Uganda Red Cross Society to implement and evaluate ongoing Forecast-based Financing pilot studies, as well as linking with similar pilot projects in Tanzania, Ethiopia and Togo through the Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre. It will also help to develop operational forecasting capabilities and influence national policymakers to strengthen early warning systems in these countries.
FATHUM will grow the capabilities of international actors such as Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre, the World Food Programme, the Food and Agricultural Organisation (FAO) and others to integrate the best scientific-expertise into their Forecast-based Financing operations.
FATHUM will make a timely contribution to international disaster risk reduction and resilience frameworks and policy development, including the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction and A2R. It will produce findings that will influence policies around early-warning, preparedness and anticipation within organisations such as the UK Department for International Development, the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies, and the UN Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, Food and Agriculture Organisation and World Food Programme.
The research findings are intended to inform the future development and implementation of international development and humanitarian policies and mechanisms, and to provide current and potential FbF donors with recommendations and tools to better understand and engage with mechanisms for science-based decision-making to help apply uncertain forecasts for early and informed action before a disaster, thereby benefitting those people most vulnerable to climate-related disasters.