Mechanisms and consequences of tipping points in lowland agricultural landscapes

Ecosystems provide a number of benefits to people, including food and timber production, areas for recreation, pollination of crops, fresh water, and the storage of carbon, which can help reduce the risk of climate change. People also benefit from wildlife, including both plant and animal species, both in terms of their aesthetic value, and from the functional role that such species play in the ecosystems of which they are a part. Many ecosystems in the UK, as in many other parts of the world, are currently at risk because of the combined effects of climate change, aerial pollution, changing patterns of land use and other forms of human disturbance. These factors can interact with each other, leading to major changes in ecosystems, which can affect their ability to provide benefits to people. Research is needed to identify which ecosystems are at risk of rapid transitions occurring, so that appropriate management and policy responses can be identified. Information is also needed on the potential impacts of such ecosystem "tipping points" on humans, through changes in the provision of ecosystem benefits. This project aims to provide this information, by studying the landscapes of Dorset, a southern English county. Here we will examine data that have been collected over a period of 80 years in a variety of different types of ecosystem, to analyse the changes that have occurred. We will use this information to see whether any tipping points have occurred in the past, or might occur in the future, which could affect human society. We will also study tipping points by comparing ecosystems along gradients of environmental degradation. In addition, we will explore whether the environmental degradation that has already happened in Dorset, or might happen in future, could affect employment and prospects for economic development. We will test the idea that factors such as climate change, aerial pollution and land use change could cause a tipping point in ecosystems, which could have major economic consequences. We will achieve this using a combination of field data and computer models, which we will use to forecast how such impacts might occur at the landscape scale. The project will help increase understanding of how major ecological changes occur in agricultural landscapes typical of much of the UK, and their potential impacts. This information will be of value for identifying which ecosystems are particularly at risk of tipping points, what are the processes that cause such tipping points, and what the implications of them might be for human society. We will also examine how such problems might be averted in future, through the development of appropriate management and policy responses.

We identify the following potential users of this research, together with the benefits to be provided to each user group by this project. (i) Academic community, both in the UK and at the global scale. The project is particularly relevant to the interests of conservation ecologists, environmental scientists, community ecologists, ecosystem scientists, landscape ecologists, economists and geographers. These researchers will benefit from new knowledge generated and scientific advancement on a topic of global importance; and the development and implementation new methodologies, specifically relating to spatially explicit models of ecosystem service dynamics to understand the mechanisms and consequences of tipping points in ecosystem benefits. The project will also help develop expertise and strengthen research capacity in the developing multi-disciplinary area of ecosystem service science, through training of highly skilled researchers and through participation in the Valuing Nature programme. (ii) Public Sector organisations, including policy-makers, government agencies and regulators. The project will contribute towards evidence based policy-making and influencing public policies and legislation at local, regional, national and international scales. Policy makers at the international and national scales will benefit from new knowledge on the likelihood of tipping points occurring in lowland landscapes, and their potential impacts on provision of ecosystem services, economic development and human wellbeing. The research will also provide evidence of the links between biodiversity and provision of ecosystem services. Results will have implications for identifying how agricultural landscapes can be managed effectively to achieve resilience under conditions of environmental change. Information on the functional importance of ecosystems will also help inform the prioritisation of conservation and management actions, such as ecological restoration. At the local scale, the project will help support the effective management of ecosystems in Dorset, an area of exceptional importance to the natural heritage of the UK. (iii) Private sector, particularly those businesses that are highly dependent on natural capital, such as agricultural and forest industries, and the tourism industry. The project will identify how tipping points in ecosystems can occur, and provide guidance on assessing the likelihood of such events. This has practical implications for the sustainable management and monitoring of ecosystems, including risk analysis and business planning, and for achieving corporate and social responsibility targets. The project has significant economic implications, as ecosystem tipping points could potentially threaten the long term viability of the UK economy. (iv) Third sector organisations, particularly conservation NGOs and CSOs with an interest in biodiversity conservation and management, and their use for recreation and amenity. The project will provide evidence of the importance of conserving biodiversity for the provision of ecosystem services, and will identify how biodiversity may be threatened by environmental change as a result of positive feedbacks and thresholds. (v) General public. Rural landscapes are of exceptional importance as a source of cultural enrichment, quality of life, health and well-being. The research will identify how such benefits may be threatened by environmental change, thereby increasing societal awareness of the importance of natural capital, and strengthening societal engagement in conservation of biodiversity and sustainable development.