Towards a Fire Early Warning System for Indonesia (ToFEWSI)

The severe El Niño episode of 2015 led to a major and damaging increase in Indonesian peatland fire, highlighting an urgent need to develop operational systems to forecast potentially severe fire events in order to mitigate the impacts of fire and haze. 10 ASEAN states have formally agreed to control peatland and forest fires and urgently need an early fire warning system: a need that we address in this proposal. An operational 'early warning' system for forecasting dangerous burning conditions is within reach using state-of-the-art modelling tools, such as the ECMWF's System 4 seasonal forecast model, but is currently hampered by insufficient knowledge about the influence of fluctuations in peat moisture on fire, particularly during periods of extreme drought, highlighted by the 1997-98 and 2015 El Niño episodes- the strongest and second strongest on record. The majority of present-day fires in Indonesia result from deliberate burning for land clearance, and this human factor means that burning can be influenced by policy and altered land management practice. The translation of scientific research into evidence-based policy and the official regulation and restriction of burning do not work well in Indonesia and new approaches are needed. We plan to both develop a new scientific forecasting tool for fire danger and to influence policy and fire regulations: a novel combination of urgent science and policy research.
This project will develop a suite of climate-, hydrological- and agent-based modelling to predict the incidence of peat fires based on computations and observations for the period 1997 to 2014, and will use the 2015 El Niño event to benchmark the forecast tools. Our working hypothesis is that the increased fire risk associated with dry peat does not trigger appropriate changes in the management practices adopted by local landowners in their use of fire, if there are no incentives provided by policy. Our anticipated outputs are:
* An operational model of peatland fire occurrence, based on a tropical peatland hydrology model, an agent-based model, and seasonal climate data derived from state-of-the-art reanalysis data and seasonal forecasts, and Earth Observation Data.
* An operational early fire warning system for peatlands based on seasonal climate forecasts.
* A more complete understanding of how climate, socio-economic and geographic factors interact to drive peatland fires.
* Evidence-based policy tools for reducing the number of fires and area burned each year in Riau province, Sumatra.
* Evidence-based proposals towards new Indonesian fire reduction management strategies and policy input.
The forecasting system will be web-based and accessible, and will predict the risk of peatland fire occurrence up to three months ahead, enabling sufficient time to spread awareness of the impending risk through the community, and to mobilise fire-fighting resources and other fire prevention measures if required. Consideration of non-climate drivers of peatland fire occurrence is critically important because this will help us capture the spatio-temporal patterns in fire in different regions displaying similar climate regimes. Non-climate driven factors also present the most tractable means to develop mitigation actions. We will combine the results of our work on climate, socio-economic and geographic factors to generate a multi-factorial model for peatland fire occurrence. The model system will be developed in close collaboration with Indonesian stakeholders following the operational needs of agencies, municipalities and companies in the area. Key stakeholders include the Indonesian peatland restoration agency, Indonesia ministry, ASEAN Regional Haze Support Unit, local communities, forestry companies, local and international researchers. The model system will be robust and simple enough for in-house daily use by our Indonesian stakeholders, who will take over the system, and run and maintain it on their own servers.

Fire is a good servant but a bad master. Fire has long been used in Indonesia on a small scale to clear forest and replace it with an agricultural system that is of greater use for local populations. However, fire is now so prevalent in parts of Indonesia that particulates pose health risks to local people and uncontrolled burning exacerbated by extensive drainage is causing irreversible biological and commercial damage to peatland ecosystems. Indonesian fires also contribute to transnational emission problems of haze particulates and CO2 that threaten current climatic, ecological and socio-economic conditions in southeast Asia and beyond.

ToFEWSI will develop a link between researchers from the UK and Indonesia to generate a scientific policy framework for the control of fire and its atmospheric emissions which are major environmental and health concerns in southeast Asia. Modelling tools embedded within clear policy guidelines will be developed to improve forecasting of fire risk and design regulations that will minimise unnecessary fire damage. Relationships will be strengthened with private, commercial and national stakeholders to obtain a broad consensus over national fire control policy. Work with local and commercial forest fire protection organisations will develop broad support for fire management strategies developed. The project goal of this project is to reduce peatland fire, and hence emissions of dangerous greenhouse and particulate emissions from biomass burning. This project will help Indonesia achieve atmospheric emission goals, alleviate respiratory problems, protect biodiversity and peatlands and contribute to Indonesian sustainable development. At the regional and global levels, this project will demonstrate preemptive and sustainable ways to reduce haze pollution and spikes in emissions occurring in tropical peatlands from fires during El Niño episodes.

Restriction of peatland burning will immediately improve ecosystems, air quality and health of local and regional populations. Our fire forecast modelling tools will directly benefit the Indonesian Peatland Management Agency on risks and opportunities for peatland protection and restoration under current and seasonal climate conditions; as well as the ASEAN Haze Coordination and Support Unit regarding impending disastrous haze conditions, leading to clear and beneficial societal and human welfare impacts not only locally, but also regionally e.g. haze-affected cities of Singapore and Kuala Lumpur.

Local farmers in Sumatra can earn far more from oil palm than traditional forms of land-use and this drives rapid forest clearance through both legal and illegal burning (Tata et al 2014). ToFEWSI aims to restrict the use of fire to periods of suitable weather and to locations where land clearance causes the least long-term ecological impact, thereby protecting the ability of the land to deliver ecosystem services such as local food supply in the future. Furthermore, while present economic development in the study area is linked with oil palm cultivation, this is a risky long-term strategy as world markets are likely to change in a medium time-frame and adoption of a wider range of land-use options is a prudent economic strategy. ToFEWSI will engage with local farmers to maintain and develop alternative land-use systems, such as home gardens and agroforestry. These systems keep land and its produce under local control and should be more stable long-term economic options. Home gardens ensure local food security and incorporate social benefits such as family employment. Increased use of forest certification (mandatory and/or voluntary) will improve forest management in Indonesia and may draw attention of foreign consumers to local production conditions in Indonesia (Nurrochmat et al 2016).

References
Tata HL et al. (2014) Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change 19:693-713.
Nurrochmat DR et al (2016). Journal of Forest Policy and Economics, 68: 54-64.