DRIER-China: Drought Resilience In Ecosystem services and Rural communities in China.

Drought is a major hazard in developing countries, especially in Asia and Africa, and in many countries is becoming a growing challenge as demand for water rises and the climate changes. In China, major droughts regularly occur over large areas of the country. These droughts have impacts on water supplies to rural (and urban) communities, on crop growth and on local ecosystems. Ecosystem impacts of drought can then indirectly further influence rural communities, for example through increases in soil erosion or dust storms. The onset of drought can be defined in a number of ways (e.g. by lack of rainfall, impact on river flows, crop failure or lack of water supply for communities). The relationships between these different forms of drought and their impacts on rural communities in China are not fully understood. In addition, improved methods to forecast drought, assess risks and understand often complex impacts on rural communities, as well as assess the risks and benefits of potential solutions, are urgently needed if drought issues are to be tackled effectively and economic, social and environmental impacts are to be reduced.

This project aims to address these challenges, by building an international network of researchers and end-users from across a range of disciplines (including humanities and social sciences) to identify key research gaps and build a research plan for a large integrated research programme to build the resilience of rural communities in China to drought events.

Initial research will examine patterns of drought over the past 30 years, by bringing together weather data, hydrological models, signs of vegetation stress from satellite data and century-long records of impacts on communities and their past responses to disasters, to determine the relationships between drought impacts on crops, ecosystems, communities and the economy. In addition, through engagement with local people and stakeholders, a framework for understanding drought impacts on local communities and for assessing and communicating the risks and benefits of potential solutions (including economic, cultural and ethical risks and benefits) will be developed. Finally, a stakeholder workshop, involving key governmental, industry and non-governmental organisations, such as the UN Development Programme for China, will be held in China, to ensure developed tools and research plans meet end-user needs and to develop routes to ensure uptake of research findings.

The project involves a number of key Chinese partners, including the National Engineering Research Centre for Information Technology in Agriculture (NERCITA) and the National Disaster Reduction Centre of China (NDRCC). NDRCC is a key organisation providing support to government for disaster response in China and the tools and methods developed in the project will be integrated into their existing risk assessment and impact assessment services, to allow improved, evidence-based responses to drought events. With assistance from NERCITA, new methods of predicting drought impacts on crop production and monitoring the impacts of on-going drought events on agriculture will be developed and the project partners will work closely with agricultural service providers in China to ensure such tools benefit Chinese farmers and the agricultural industry. The project will also work with local communities, to enhance their understanding of drought hazards and potential solutions, and of the historical impacts of drought on their region.

In the longer term, the project is expected to lead to a large-scale international research programme to develop a full, integrated risk and impact assessment system for use in disaster management and to develop needs-driven and equitable solutions to build drought resilience in rural communities in China and other developing countries.

The DRIER-China project will result in a number of outputs with potential benefits for the Chinese economy, society and the environment. Firstly, the project will develop a framework for research under a longer-term international research programme with an aim of developing a fully integrated risk and impact assessment system for drought hazards in China and of developing approaches (including policy changes, land and resource management and technological innovations) to build the resilience of rural communities to drought. Many of these tools and approaches are anticipated to be transferable to other developing countries, ultimately leading to far-reaching societal and economic benefits, such as improved water and food security.
In the shorter term, the project will provide new insights into the drivers of drought in China and the socio-economic and environmental impacts of drought on Chinese rural communities, and will develop new methods to estimate vegetation drought stress from satellite data and to integrate this data with crop models for agricultural risk assessment. A number of immediate impacts of the project are anticipated from these research findings and tools and are described below.

The National Disaster Reduction Center of China (NDRCC) is a key project partner with a leading role in national responses to drought hazards. Improved quantitative approaches to drought forecasting, risk and impact assessment, generated during DRIER-China, will directly increase their capacity to respond to drought disasters, when integrated into existing operational systems. Uptake of such risk assessment tools by other agencies involved in disaster relief, such as NGOs, can help to ensure optimal distribution and use of resources.

Chinese government institutions responsible for agriculture, environment and rural development can benefit from an improved understanding of the characteristics and impacts of drought, to help to inform national policy decisions and mitigation strategies at regional and local scales. The frameworks developed through the project can be adopted by government agencies and other organisations (such as UNDP China) engaged in poverty alleviation, environmental protection and disaster prevention, to assess impacts of both drought and drought resilience measures on rural communities, and to understand socio-economic barriers to implementation. In addition, the project will help to determine the best methods of communicating drought risks and the benefits of potential solutions to rural communities, helping to increase uptake of technological solutions and policy innovations.

Agricultural and Geospatial Service Providers, including SMEs, can benefit from the development of products to improve prediction of drought impacts on agricultural production and provide early detection of crop drought stress, which have significant commercial potential. Local farmers will ultimately benefit from these services and from improved understanding of potential benefits of agri-technology or crop management solutions to drought and agricultural insurers will benefit from a better understanding of risks to crops and rural economies and the ability to quantitatively assess drought impacts over large areas.

Local communities in China will benefit directly from an improved understanding of their local resilience to drought and the efficacy of historical responses, potential risk/benefits of solutions, as well as from an insight into their local history. Wider society can also stand to benefit from an improved understanding of the negative impacts of drought and the importance of evidence-based, community-focussed mitigation.