Atmospheric hazard in developing Countries: Risk assessment and Early Warning (ACREW)
Lead Research Organisation:
University of Leeds
Department Name: National Centre for Atmospheric Science
Abstract
The overarching aim of ACREW is to develop the UK's capacity for building the resilience of developing countries to atmospheric hazards. The proposed programme of work will focus on two hazards: air pollution and adverse weather - both of which disproportionately impact poor people. Air pollution is a critical problem in many developing economies, reducing life expectancy by up to a decade, and GDP by up to 5% per year. Weak infrastructure and dependence on rain fed agriculture render the populations of developing countries critically vulnerable to variation in the weather.
Recent technological and scientific developments offer opportunities to build the resilience of developing countries to hazards related both to air quality and to climate/weather. In the case of air quality, new sensor technology promises a revolution in our ability to measure pollution on all scales, at low cost. Reduced computing costs and readily available open-source software, furthermore, offer opportunities for scientists in developing countries to run their own air quality simulations. In the case of climate and weather, newly available models, observational datasets and analysis tools have the potential to improve early warning of weather-related hazard on time-scales of days to seasons. Users must, however, understand how much confidence can be placed in state-of-the-art models and technologies, if such systems are to be exploited safely in operational settings. This relies on sound scientific understanding of underpinning mechanisms, as well as on close engagement between researchers and end users.
All of the proposed work in ACREW contributes to the promotion of economic development and improved human welfare and health in developing countries. The specific activities have been chosen to exploit new scientific developments and existing expertise within NCAS. The air quality work packages (WPs) focus on the development of a new, affordable sensor for monitoring of air quality; liquid fuel composition and its effect on air pollution; and the formulation of evidence-based emissions policies through simulation of air quality in major cities. The climate/weather WPs focus on early warning of agricultural drought; the risks associated with tropical cyclones; prediction of intense rainfall; and the utility of forecast information for managing complex systems, such as renewable energy supply and demand. Each WP includes elements of science and application, although the balance varies depending on the activity. Both the air quality and climate/weather components of ACREW include operational pilots of new technology, which will be carried out in partnership with on-the-ground organizations.
Strengthening and building of partnerships are key objectives for ACREW, and crucial for the project's success. To this end, ACREW is centered round a series of workshops and exchange visits. These engagement activities will cement collaborations and facilitate co-development of new technologies and research applications. The participation of international organizations, such as the WMO, WHO, ECMWF and the Met Office in annual workshops will enhance the uptake ACREW scientific findings - widening impact beyond immediate project partnerships and pilots, and securing long-term development outcomes.
Recent technological and scientific developments offer opportunities to build the resilience of developing countries to hazards related both to air quality and to climate/weather. In the case of air quality, new sensor technology promises a revolution in our ability to measure pollution on all scales, at low cost. Reduced computing costs and readily available open-source software, furthermore, offer opportunities for scientists in developing countries to run their own air quality simulations. In the case of climate and weather, newly available models, observational datasets and analysis tools have the potential to improve early warning of weather-related hazard on time-scales of days to seasons. Users must, however, understand how much confidence can be placed in state-of-the-art models and technologies, if such systems are to be exploited safely in operational settings. This relies on sound scientific understanding of underpinning mechanisms, as well as on close engagement between researchers and end users.
All of the proposed work in ACREW contributes to the promotion of economic development and improved human welfare and health in developing countries. The specific activities have been chosen to exploit new scientific developments and existing expertise within NCAS. The air quality work packages (WPs) focus on the development of a new, affordable sensor for monitoring of air quality; liquid fuel composition and its effect on air pollution; and the formulation of evidence-based emissions policies through simulation of air quality in major cities. The climate/weather WPs focus on early warning of agricultural drought; the risks associated with tropical cyclones; prediction of intense rainfall; and the utility of forecast information for managing complex systems, such as renewable energy supply and demand. Each WP includes elements of science and application, although the balance varies depending on the activity. Both the air quality and climate/weather components of ACREW include operational pilots of new technology, which will be carried out in partnership with on-the-ground organizations.
Strengthening and building of partnerships are key objectives for ACREW, and crucial for the project's success. To this end, ACREW is centered round a series of workshops and exchange visits. These engagement activities will cement collaborations and facilitate co-development of new technologies and research applications. The participation of international organizations, such as the WMO, WHO, ECMWF and the Met Office in annual workshops will enhance the uptake ACREW scientific findings - widening impact beyond immediate project partnerships and pilots, and securing long-term development outcomes.
Planned Impact
The pathway to impact envisaged in ACREW is:
-to carry out relevant scientific research in partnership with in-country organizations
-to develop methods and/or guidance for practical application of scientific findings
-to demonstrate applications through a variety of engagement activities
1. Relevance of the scientific research
The scientific research in ACREW is centered around atmospheric hazard in DAC-listed countries. There are two components to ACREW: hazards related to air quality; hazards related to weather/climate. The proposed research focuses on improving capacity to monitor and model hazards (WPA1, WPA3, WPB2, WPB3); understand the drivers of hazardous conditions (WPA2, WPA3, WPB1, WPB3); quantify the risks posed by hazards (WPA1, WPA3, WPB2); and investigate the utility of state-of-the-art models and observations for management of hazard in DAC-listed countries (WPA3, WPB1, WPB2, WPB3, WPB4).
2. Methods and/or guidance for practical application of scientific findings
Where applicable, ACREW will produce guidelines and policy briefs to facilitate uptake of research. These will be developed in partnership with in-country collaborators, such as the IITM. New instruments (eg WPA1), decision support tools (eg WPB1) and datasets (eg WPB2) will provide a means for agencies in DAC-listed countries to exploit fundamental ACREW research, for example on the representation of drought in land surface models (WPB1).
3. Demonstration of applications through engagement activities
ACREW will be centered around annual workshops, which will include ACREW Investigators, ACREW collaborators and representatives from well-established programmes and international organizations, such as the World Meteorological Organization and the World Health Organization (see spheres of influence diagram in the Pathways to Impact). The workshops will be a forum for stakeholders to direct ACREW research, and hence to facilitate the integration of tools and applications into existing platforms, such as RAINWATCH.
On a day-to-day level, pilot projects carried out in partnership with on-the-ground organizations, such as the Ghana Meteorological Agency, Risk Shield and the One Acre Fund, will enable deep engagement and immediate impact on local communities.
A key objective of ACREW is to build new collaborations, including in areas of research where partnerships with DAC-listed countries are less mature. Participation in workshops organized by other programmes, such as Future Climate for Africa, Climate and Clean Air Coalition, and the Walker Institute Adaptive Sahel Information platform, will facilitate this.
Finally, a substantial budget has been allocated for exchange visits to be undertaken by ACREW Investigators and in-country partners. These visits will cement partnerships and facilitate the practical application of ACREW research - greatly enhancing impact.
-to carry out relevant scientific research in partnership with in-country organizations
-to develop methods and/or guidance for practical application of scientific findings
-to demonstrate applications through a variety of engagement activities
1. Relevance of the scientific research
The scientific research in ACREW is centered around atmospheric hazard in DAC-listed countries. There are two components to ACREW: hazards related to air quality; hazards related to weather/climate. The proposed research focuses on improving capacity to monitor and model hazards (WPA1, WPA3, WPB2, WPB3); understand the drivers of hazardous conditions (WPA2, WPA3, WPB1, WPB3); quantify the risks posed by hazards (WPA1, WPA3, WPB2); and investigate the utility of state-of-the-art models and observations for management of hazard in DAC-listed countries (WPA3, WPB1, WPB2, WPB3, WPB4).
2. Methods and/or guidance for practical application of scientific findings
Where applicable, ACREW will produce guidelines and policy briefs to facilitate uptake of research. These will be developed in partnership with in-country collaborators, such as the IITM. New instruments (eg WPA1), decision support tools (eg WPB1) and datasets (eg WPB2) will provide a means for agencies in DAC-listed countries to exploit fundamental ACREW research, for example on the representation of drought in land surface models (WPB1).
3. Demonstration of applications through engagement activities
ACREW will be centered around annual workshops, which will include ACREW Investigators, ACREW collaborators and representatives from well-established programmes and international organizations, such as the World Meteorological Organization and the World Health Organization (see spheres of influence diagram in the Pathways to Impact). The workshops will be a forum for stakeholders to direct ACREW research, and hence to facilitate the integration of tools and applications into existing platforms, such as RAINWATCH.
On a day-to-day level, pilot projects carried out in partnership with on-the-ground organizations, such as the Ghana Meteorological Agency, Risk Shield and the One Acre Fund, will enable deep engagement and immediate impact on local communities.
A key objective of ACREW is to build new collaborations, including in areas of research where partnerships with DAC-listed countries are less mature. Participation in workshops organized by other programmes, such as Future Climate for Africa, Climate and Clean Air Coalition, and the Walker Institute Adaptive Sahel Information platform, will facilitate this.
Finally, a substantial budget has been allocated for exchange visits to be undertaken by ACREW Investigators and in-country partners. These visits will cement partnerships and facilitate the practical application of ACREW research - greatly enhancing impact.
Organisations
- University of Leeds (Lead Research Organisation)
- National Institute for Space Research Brazil (Collaboration)
- National Autonomous University of Mexico (Collaboration)
- ONE ACRE FUND (Collaboration)
- World Food Programme (Italy, Sudan, Senegal) (Collaboration)
- International Committee of the Red Cross (Collaboration)
- African Risk Capacity (Collaboration)
- INFORM GmbH (Collaboration)
- ICPAC (Collaboration)
- Pula Advisors (Collaboration)
- Ghana Meteorological Agency (Collaboration)
- Nigerian Meteorological Agency (Collaboration)
Publications
Acton W
(2020)
Surface-atmosphere fluxes of volatile organic compounds in Beijing
in Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
Acton W
(2020)
Surface-atmosphere fluxes of volatile organic compounds in Beijing
in Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
Ascott M
(2020)
In Situ Observations and Lumped Parameter Model Reconstructions Reveal Intra-Annual to Multidecadal Variability in Groundwater Levels in Sub-Saharan Africa
in Water Resources Research
Asfaw D
(2018)
TAMSAT-ALERT v1: a new framework for agricultural decision support
in Geoscientific Model Development
Ayesiga G
(2020)
The observed synoptic scale precipitation relationship between Western Equatorial Africa and Eastern Equatorial Africa
in International Journal of Climatology
Barker P
(2020)
Airborne measurements of fire emission factors for African biomass burning sampled during the MOYA campaign
in Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
Bickle M
(2021)
Understanding mechanisms for trends in Sahelian squall lines: Roles of thermodynamics and shear
in Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society
Biggart M
(2020)
Street-scale air quality modelling for Beijing during a winter 2016 measurement campaign
in Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
Biggart M
(2020)
Street-scale air quality modelling for Beijing during a winter 2016 measurement campaign
in Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
Black E
(2020)
Cocoa plant productivity in West Africa under climate change: a modelling and experimental study
in Environmental Research Letters
Black E
(2023)
Application of TAMSAT-ALERT soil moisture forecasts for planting date decision support in Africa
in Frontiers in Climate
Boult V
(2020)
Evaluation and validation of TAMSAT -ALERT soil moisture and WRSI for use in drought anticipatory action
in Meteorological Applications
Boult V
(2022)
Towards drought impact-based forecasting in a multi-hazard context
in Climate Risk Management
Boyd D
(2018)
What Is the Added Value of a Convection-Permitting Model for Forecasting Extreme Rainfall over Tropical East Africa?
in Monthly Weather Review
Boyd D
(2018)
What Is the Added Value of a Convection-Permitting Model for Forecasting Extreme Rainfall over Tropical East Africa?
in Monthly Weather Review
Braghiere R
(2020)
Influence of sun zenith angle on canopy clumping and the resulting impacts on photosynthesis
in Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
Brean J
(2019)
Observations of highly oxidized molecules and particle nucleation in the atmosphere of Beijing
in Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
Bryant D
(2020)
Strong anthropogenic control of secondary organic aerosol formation from isoprene in Beijing
in Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
Burton R
(2022)
Satellite-Based Nowcasting of West African Mesoscale Storms Has Skill at up to 4-h Lead Time
in Weather and Forecasting
Chapman S
(2023)
Climate Change Impacts on Extreme Rainfall in Eastern Africa in a Convection-Permitting Climate Model
in Journal of Climate
Chapman S
(2020)
Impact of climate change on crop suitability in sub-Saharan Africa in parameterized and convection-permitting regional climate models
in Environmental Research Letters
Chevuturi A
(2021)
Subseasonal prediction performance for South American land-atmosphere coupling in extended austral summer
in Climate Resilience and Sustainability
| Description | 1. Development and implementation of an integrated drought forecasting and agricultural decision support system: TAMSAT-ALERT. The TAMSAT-ALERT system has been evaluated for Eastern and Southern Africa. Forecasts from the system have been integrated into operational activities by a range of NGOs, commercial organisations, regional centres and international programmes. For example, the forecasts are now integrated into the Kenya Red Cross early action protocols. The system has been adapted for agricultural decision support, via a major social enterprise (the One Acre Fund). Through this activity, over 1 Million farmers are now receiving evidence-based advice on when to plant, via SMS text message. 2. Evaluation of seasonal forecast skill over Africa at a range of spatial scales: We have assessed seasonal forecast skill at a range of lead times, and spatial scale, focusing on the impact and implications of the complex spatial variability of seasonal rainfall across SSA on the use of forecast information for rainfall monitoring and integration within drought-risk assessments. We have found that at a three month lead time, the only regions where any numerical forecasting systems have skill are the Horn of Africa and West Africa, during the main rainy seasons. There is more skill at a sub-seasonal time scale, but it is crucial that the spatial scale at which forecasts are issued is representative of the conditions experienced at the community level. This work has highlighted the importance of understanding the relevance and skill of weather forecasts for monitoring and early-warning systems to help mitigate drought risk well in advance. Our findings will be disseminated to regional forecasting agencies, to inform their decisions on the most effective scale to issue seasonal forecasts. 3. The climate of Lake Victoria is complex, and difficult to model. This has implications for climate services relevant to the population of the region. During 2019, the first known above-surface observations of the Lake Victoria diurnal circulation collected during the HyVic-pilot project, allowing evaluation of the Met Office Unified Model, a model used operationally in the region. 4. Climate change assessments: ACREW has supported the Future Climate for Africa programme - especially HyCRISTAL. The HyCRISTAL climate change summary brings together HyCRISTAL climate change research for scientists and practitioners. Wider engagement with relevant user-communities is occurring through pilot studies on: urban water & sanitation, rural livelihoods, lake-levels (HyTpp for WOld Bank) and tea production (CI4Tea), with new communication products published. HyCRISTAL has led to new NCAS-Leeds NCAS-Reading collaboration. 5. Observation of lake processes: An observational campaign, delivered by HyCRISTAL and supported by ACREW has produced the first ever airborne observations of the Lake Victoria lake-land breeze, evaluating the Met Office model,, a model used operationally in the region. This was achieved through collaboration and financial support from WMO HIGHWAY, HyCRISTAL, Met Office and NCAS. The Lake Victoria basin is a population and population growth hot-spot and the lake breeze controls precipitation over 100s of km. The on-lake precipitation is the dominant source of water to the lake, the level of which is expected to change under climate change. 6. Tropical cyclones: Following the objectives of ACREW, we are focusing on the Philippines area for TC variability analysis. Outputs of seven reanalysis are investigated to determine their performance in simulating the observed TC variability in the region. The analysis will be extended to model output, for present and future climate, to determine whether the state-of-the-art models simulate the drivers and variability of TCs in the Philippines area sufficiently well to enhance risk zoning maps. 7. Renewable power in Mexico: Currently, the wind power industry does not make use of any short or long term forecasts. Work carried out with a wind farm operator (Grupo Dragon) has demonstrated the skill and utility of such forecasts for managing supply. Further work has led to the derivation of large-scale patterns to describe the weather over the region. It has been shown that these patterns are closely linked to the wind characteristics near the surface and therefore to wind energy production. Considering the huge growth in renewables in Mexico, improvements in management of supply could provide significant economic developments at the national scale. 8. Modulation of heavy precipitation by Equartorial Waves: ACREW has supported work under the Newton Fund WCSSP SE Asia programme to identify the role of equatorially trapped waves in modulating heavy precipitation in South East Asia and found that high amplitude equatorially trapped Waves can increase the likelihood of heavy (> 95 percentile) precipitation by a upto 3-4 times for certain phases of waves. Within the wider WCSSP SE Asia programme this work is being used to develop tools to support forecasters in issuing forecasts of high impact weather, including the development of a. Ongoing work is developing methodologyies to identify waves in observations and forecasts in real-time. 9. Sub-seasonal prediction in South America: ACREW has supported work under the Newton Fund CSSP Brazil programme to evaluate subseasonal (1-5 weeks ahead) forecasts of South American summer rainfall in four leading forecasting systems, including forecasts from Brazil and the UK. The research concluded that models struggle to predict rainfall more than two weeks ahead, even during strong externally forced conditions, such as El Nino or La Nina events. Within CSSP Brazil, this work will contribute to ongoing model development and evaluation for subseasonal predictions, including development of a new atmosphere-ocean coupled configuration of the Brazilian subseasonal forecast model to improve performance. 10. Weather regimes in Southeast Asia: ACREW has supported work under the Newton Fund WCSSP Southeast Asia to derive weather regimes for the region, determine the links of these patterns to large-scale modes of variability and to the occurrence of high-impact weather, and assess the potential enhancement in heavy precipitation forecasting skill of models at sub-seasonal time scales. 11. Subseasonal Prediction over Africa: In collaboration with GCRF-African SWIFT we have carried out a comprenhensive assessment of sub-seasonal forecast skill for weekly precipitation over Africa in three leading operational sub-seasonal prediction systems, we have shown that for most of Africa there is skill for weekly precipitation out lead times of 2-3 weeks, during the wet season, and over East Africa in particular this skill extends to 3-4 weeks. Analysis has shown that both interannual (ENSO, Indian Ocean Dipole) and intraseasonal (MJO) modes of variability contribute to this skill, but that skill could be improved by an improved representation in forecast models of the local response to these drivers. 12. Short-range prediction over Africa: ACREW has supported generation NWCSAF satellite products and short-range predictions ("nowcasts") over Africa and sharing these with AFrican Met Services. Given the very low skill of NWP for rainfall over much of AFrica there is much opportunity for use of nowcasts, where research is showing skill to at least 4 hours. African Met Services in SWIFT are now generating these products themselves, partly supported by in country University-NMHC partnerships supported by SWIFT. |
| Exploitation Route | 1. The TAMSAT-ALERT decision support system is being adopted by international agencies, NGOs and National meteorological services for monitoring of agricultural drought. 2. Our findings on seasonal forecast skill and scale will be used by regional forecasting centres to inform their practices on issuing seasonal forecasts. |
| Sectors | Agriculture, Food and Drink,Environment |
| Description | The decision support systems developed during this award have been used for assessment of agricultural risk, and subsequently to develop risk management instruments, such as large scale drought insurance. The ultimate beneficiaries of this work are smallholder farmers in Africa. To reach these people, we have engaged with a number of partners, including international organisations (World Food Programme, Red Cross), commercial partners (Risk Shield, Blue Marble), non-governmental organisations (One Acre Fund) and national/regional meteorological agencies (Ghana Meteorological Agency, Kenya Meteorological Department, ICPAC and Agrhymet). Our impact to date includes new insurance schemes, providing drought protection to 2.6Million farmers in Zambia, over two years, and enhanced capacity of national meteorological services to provide early warning of agricultural drought in West Africa. We are currently working with NGOs in Kenya and Southern Africa to develop new decision support systems and associated risk management instruments, which will help smallholders manage their farms more effectively. TAMSAT-ALERT drought forecasts have facilitated insurance schemes and drought monitoring throughout Africa, benefiting over 2M farmer households per year. The forecasts are now being used more widely by governmental and non-governmental organisations for early warning and early action. This includes the Red Cross, World Food Programme and Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. More widely, the forecast evaluations and developments (in support of SWIFT and ForPAc) are already having demonstrable impact on policy and practice in Africa. For example, there are now active discussions about incorporating forecasts into early warning protocols in East Africa. The long term support from NCAS and ACREW is key to assuring our partners that our efforts are sustainable. |
| First Year Of Impact | 2019 |
| Sector | Agriculture, Food and Drink,Environment |
| Impact Types | Societal,Policy & public services |
| Description | Emerging sensor technologies for developing countries |
| Geographic Reach | Multiple continents/international |
| Policy Influence Type | Influenced training of practitioners or researchers |
| Impact | Development work on low cost sensors has been influential in setting the national and international agenda and NCAS has provided guidelines for the use of sensors for air pollution measurement in developing countries. Publications on the performance of sensors have been used by the World Meteorological Organisation in an advice note to governments on the application of sensors. Evidence has been provided to Defra and to Go-Science in the UK on the applicability and use of low cost NO2 sensors for regulatory measurements. |
| Description | A new drought model for Pakistan |
| Amount | £37,500 (GBP) |
| Organisation | Start Network |
| Sector | Charity/Non Profit |
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Start | 04/2020 |
| End | 12/2020 |
| Description | Discipline hopping for environmental solutions |
| Amount | £20,692 (GBP) |
| Organisation | Natural Environment Research Council |
| Sector | Public |
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Start | 01/2022 |
| End | 03/2022 |
| Description | Exploiting environmental data for food security in Africa: a new rainfall dataset for monitoring and early action |
| Amount | £160,351 (GBP) |
| Organisation | University of Reading |
| Sector | Academic/University |
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Start | 08/2019 |
| End | 07/2021 |
| Description | GCRF - financial instruments for resilience |
| Amount | £343,529 (GBP) |
| Funding ID | NE/R014116/1 |
| Organisation | Natural Environment Research Council |
| Sector | Public |
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Start | 01/2018 |
| End | 12/2019 |
| Description | GCRF African Science for Weather Information and Forecasting Techniques (African SWIFT) |
| Amount | £7,971,410 (GBP) |
| Funding ID | NE/P021077/1 |
| Organisation | Natural Environment Research Council |
| Sector | Public |
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Start | 09/2017 |
| End | 12/2021 |
| Description | INtegrated FORecasting for Mitigation of risk |
| Amount | £152,782 (GBP) |
| Organisation | UK Department for International Development |
| Sector | Public |
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Start | 01/2020 |
| End | 12/2020 |
| Description | Weather and Climate Science for Services Partnership - Southeast Asia |
| Amount | £164,886 (GBP) |
| Organisation | Meteorological Office UK |
| Sector | Academic/University |
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Start | 04/2020 |
| End | 03/2021 |
| Title | Skillful spatial scales and representativity of seasonal rainfall forecasts over Africa |
| Description | This dataset contains gridded estimates of the skillful spatial scales of seasonal rainfall forecasts (tercile probabilities) over Africa and a measure of how representative these skillful spatial scales are for anticipating local rainfall conditions (as described by terciles). The skillful spatial scales presented apply to tercile probability hindcasts (re-forecasts) of seasonal total rainfall derived from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) seasonal forecasting System 5 (SEAS5). The SEAS5 hindcasts analysed here are initialised at a lead time of 1 month ahead of the start of a given season. The representativity of the SEAS5 skillful spatial scales is computed using observed seasonal rainfall terciles from the Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station data (CHIRPS) version 2.0 dataset. The skillful spatial scales and representativity data are combined to delineate regions where the SEAS5 seasonal hindcasts are both skillful and representative for anticipating local seasonal rainfall conditions. Note that the these data are specific to tercile probabilities derived from the SEAS5 hindcasts and different skillful scales and representativity results are likely to be found when applying this methodology to other dynamical weather forecasting systems and event/quantile categories. A subset of this dataset is presented in Figure 6 of Young, M., Heinrich, V., Black, E., and Asfaw, D., 2020: Optimal spatial scales for seasonal forecasts over Africa, Environmental Research Letters. In press https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab94e9. |
| Type Of Material | Database/Collection of data |
| Year Produced | 2020 |
| Provided To Others? | Yes |
| URL | https://researchdata.reading.ac.uk/id/eprint/252 |
| Title | TAMSAT-ALERT decision support framework |
| Description | TAMSAT-ALERT (The TAMSAT Agricultural Early Warning System) outputs community level agricultural risk assessments based on multiple streams of data, including Earth Observation, Reanalysis and meteorological forecasts. In essence, the system addresses the question: 'Given the state of the land surface, the stage in the growing season and the meteorological forecast, what is the chance of some adverse agricultural outcome?'. So far the system has been implemented for seasonal drought risk assessment, planting date decision support and probabilistic crop yield forecasting. |
| Type Of Material | Computer model/algorithm |
| Year Produced | 2018 |
| Provided To Others? | Yes |
| Impact | - Early warning of agricultural drought in northern Ghana during 2017 (system also run in 2018) - Plans for field trials of the planting date decision support |
| Title | Winter wheat yield prediction model for Pakistan |
| Description | An NDVI-based yield prediction model was developed for the Punjab, Sindh and Balochistan provinces of Pakistan. The model takes high resolution, publicly available NDVI data as input and uses the TAMSAT-ALERT approach to predict the evolution of NDVI at district scale over a season. A machine learning approach is used to relate the NDVI to district crop yields. This enables us to anticipate which districts in the three provicnes are likely to experience low winter wheat yield. The model has proved highly skillful at predicting winter wheat yield from February onwards (winter wheat is planted in November and harvested in April). In 2020-2021 season, the model was successfully implemented for Punjab and Sindh and it was extended to Balochistan in 2021-2022. The model is the basis for the START Networks Disaster Risk Financing scheme for Pakistan winter drought. |
| Type Of Material | Computer model/algorithm |
| Year Produced | 2020 |
| Provided To Others? | No |
| Impact | The model enabled a disaster risk financing scheme to be implemented for Pakistan by the START Network for the first time, with significant impact on the rural populations of Punjab, Sindh and Balochistan. |
| Description | Agricultural decision support |
| Organisation | One Acre Fund |
| Country | Kenya |
| Sector | Charity/Non Profit |
| PI Contribution | We have collaborated with the One Acre Fund to develop a methodology for supporting farmers' decisions on planting date. If field trials are successful, this information will be disseminated to farmers via text message. |
| Collaborator Contribution | The partners have provided extensive datasets of planting date and yield, which have enabled us to carry out an ex ante study of the potential of the decision support to improve yield. |
| Impact | Internal reports on the potential added value of the decision support. These will be developed into field trials. |
| Start Year | 2017 |
| Description | Air-sea coupled configuration of Brazilian model |
| Organisation | National Institute for Space Research Brazil |
| Department | Weather Forecasting and Climate Studies Centre (CPTEC) |
| Country | Brazil |
| Sector | Public |
| PI Contribution | NCAS hosted a visiting scientist from CPTEC/INPE Brazil in March 2019 to develop an atmosphere-ocean coupled configuration of the Brazilian Atmospheric Model (BAM) that is used operationally for weather forecasting and subseasonal to seasonal prediction in Brazil. The model combines BAM with the K Profile Parameterisation mixed-layer ocean configuration developed in NCAS. NCAS staff supervised the scientist's model development work and provided input on the design of coupled reforecast experiments with the new coupled BAM configuration. The coupled model configuration is under further development and evaluation for eventual operational implementation at CPTEC. |
| Collaborator Contribution | CPTEC developed the configurations of the model and ran test forecasts, for joint analysis by NCAS and CPTEC staff. The impetus for the model design and the hindcast experiments came from the CPTEC line manager of the visiting researcher. |
| Impact | None yet |
| Start Year | 2019 |
| Description | Collaboration with ICPAC |
| Organisation | ICPAC |
| Country | Kenya |
| Sector | Private |
| PI Contribution | Provision of soil moisture forecasts to support the regional climate outlook forum |
| Collaborator Contribution | Implementation and testing of TAMSAT-ALERT soil mositure forecasts, and provision of forecasts to stakeholders in Africa. |
| Impact | Improved drought early warning for the Greater Horn of Africa |
| Start Year | 2017 |
| Description | Collaboration with NiMet |
| Organisation | Nigerian Meteorological Agency |
| Country | Nigeria |
| Sector | Charity/Non Profit |
| PI Contribution | Training on processing and evaluation of S2S forecast data, provision of drought forecasts |
| Collaborator Contribution | Validation data and implementation of TAMSAT-ALERT forecasts |
| Impact | Improved drought early warning |
| Start Year | 2017 |
| Description | Collaboration with the Ghana Meteorological Agency |
| Organisation | Ghana Meteorological Agency |
| Country | Ghana |
| Sector | Public |
| PI Contribution | NCAS/ACREW supports the Ghana Meteorological Agency by providing soil moisture forecasts to inform early action. |
| Collaborator Contribution | GMet provides validation data and staff time for implementation and testing of the system |
| Impact | Implementation of our drought forecasting system within GMet, leading to improved drought early warning and early action. |
| Start Year | 2017 |
| Description | Decision support for international organisations |
| Organisation | International Committee of the Red Cross |
| Department | Kenya Red Cross Society |
| Country | Kenya |
| Sector | Charity/Non Profit |
| PI Contribution | We have provided international organisations , including the Red Cross and World Food Programme with impact relevant forecasts, which have enabled them to release funds during droughts in Africa. |
| Collaborator Contribution | Our partners have provided a 'route to impact' for our research through their core activities of enabling poor farmers to weather drought. |
| Impact | Provision of impact relevant forecasts has facilitated the release of WFP funds in Zambia, as part of the R4 insurance programme Soil moisture forecasts developed in these research projects have informed the development of early action protocols by the Red Cross |
| Start Year | 2018 |
| Description | Decision support for international organisations |
| Organisation | World Food Programme (Italy, Sudan, Senegal) |
| Country | Italy |
| Sector | Charity/Non Profit |
| PI Contribution | We have provided international organisations , including the Red Cross and World Food Programme with impact relevant forecasts, which have enabled them to release funds during droughts in Africa. |
| Collaborator Contribution | Our partners have provided a 'route to impact' for our research through their core activities of enabling poor farmers to weather drought. |
| Impact | Provision of impact relevant forecasts has facilitated the release of WFP funds in Zambia, as part of the R4 insurance programme Soil moisture forecasts developed in these research projects have informed the development of early action protocols by the Red Cross |
| Start Year | 2018 |
| Description | IER-CCA-NCAS-Meteorology collaboration on multi-scale meteorological models in wind power resource assessment |
| Organisation | National Autonomous University of Mexico |
| Country | Mexico |
| Sector | Academic/University |
| PI Contribution | Dr Oscar Martinez-Alvarado and Dr Daniel Drew have contributed to the supervision of four students, Mr Carlos Morales, Mr Gustavo Hernández, Ms Linda Canché and Ms Lourdes Zamora, by holding regular Skype meetings to discuss the progress of their research work. These four students have visited the Department of Meteorology, University of Reading at different times. Drs Martinez-Alvarado and Drew also provided supervision during those visits. This supervisory work is leading to several outputs, as follows. Carlos Morales has finished writing the research article 'Estimating wind speed and capacity factors in Mexico using reanalysis data' based on the work done during his academic visit to the Department of Meteorology in 2017. The article has now been submitted to the peer-reviews journal Renewable Energy. Gustavo Hernández has completed his MSc dissertation and has obtained his degree on 23 Januray 2020. Part of the work in his dissertation was also developed during his academic visit to the Department of Meteorology in 2018. Lourdes Zamora visited the Department of Meteorology for 6 weeks in 2019 to develop techniques that will be useful for her MSc studies, which have started in in August 2019. Linda Canché visited the Department of Meteorology between August and October 2019 and is now developing her MSc dissertation to be completed next year based on the work done during her visit. Dr Martinez-Alvarado is currently involved in the preparation of a research article, led by Dr Carlos Lopez (IER) and entitled 'An implementation of meteorological models based on experimental wind power spectrum analysis and power estimations'. Drs Martinez-Alvarado and Drew were examiners of the MSc thesis of Mr Gustavo Hernandez (IER). Dr Simon Thomas joined the NCAS research team, under the supervision of Dr Martinez-Alvarado and Dr Drew, in March 2019 to investigate the atmospheric drivers of wind and wind power production in Mexico. Drs Thomas, Martinez-Alvarado and Drew in collaboaration with Dr Hannah Bloomfield (Reading) have now produced a research article entitled 'Drivers of Extreme Wind Events in Mexico for Wind Power Applications', which has been submitted to The International Journal of Climatology. Dr Martinez-Alvarado has contributed to the organisation of the 1st Forum on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) and Wind Energy that took place in Juriquilla, Mexico on 10-12 June 2019. Dr Martinez-Alvarado and Dr Thomas have contributed to the contents of the 1st Forum on NWP and Wind Energy. Dr Drew did not attend this event due to personal circumstances. Drs Martinez-Alvarado, Thomas and Drew were the local organisers of The Second International Workshop on Meteorological Models in Wind Power Applications, held in Reading between 9 and 12 December 2019, and contributed to the contents of the Workshop. This workshop constituted a major output from this Newton Fund Institutional Links grant. Drs Thomas and Drew contributed to the International Conference in Energy Meteorology 2019 in Copenhagen, Denmark in June 2019. Drs Thomas, Martinez-Alvarado and Drew have submitted an abstract to the EGU General Assembly 2020 to present a paper entitled 'Drivers of Extreme Wind Events in Mexico for Wind Power Applications'. This abstract has been accepted. The meeting will take place in Vienna, Austria, on 3-8 May 2020. Dr Thomas supervised and Drs Martinez-Alvarado and Drew co-supervised the work of a visiting scientist, Ms Susie Nicolau, to the Department of Meteorology. Ms Nicolau visited the Department between 24 June and 30 August 2019 to work on a comparison of the skill of atmospheric reanalysis products to represent the wind characteristics over Mexico. This is leading to a research paper, led by Dr Thomas, currently in preparation. Furthermore, NCAS has contributed to the formation of two students, Abdiel Hernández and Linda Canché, from the Renewable Energy Institute (IER) of the National University of Mexico, who attended the School on Introduction to Atmospheric Sciences organised by NCAS. |
| Collaborator Contribution | Prof Eduardo Ramos and Dr Osvaldo Rodríguez supervise or have supervised at IER the four students mentioned in the question above and two others whose work will also be important for the expected outcomes of the collaboration supported by the Institutional Links grants. Dr Adolfo Magaldi contributes his expertise in running the Weather and Forecast Research (WRF) model to supervise the model runs done by students. Dr Magaldi was the local organiser of the 1st Forum on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) and Wind Energy that took place in Juriquilla, Mexico on 10-12 June 2019. Dr Rodriguez has contributed to two research papers, one led by Mr Carlos Morales entitled 'Estimating wind speed and capacity factors in Mexico using reanalysis data' and recently submitted to the peer-reviewed journal Renewable Energy, and a second one led by Dr Carlos Lopez (IER) entitled 'An implementation of meteorological models based on experimental wind power spectrum analysis and power estimations', currently in preparation. Dr Rodriguez has contributed to the organisation and the content of the Second International Workshop on Meteorological Models in Wind Power Application that took place in Reading, UK on 9-12 December 2019. Dr Rodriguez has continually served as the link between the project and the wind energy industry in Mexico through his participation in various industry fora and direct contact with industry practitioners, one of whom, Mr Juan Ramón López Samayoa attended the Workshop in Reading in December 2019. |
| Impact | - IER students have attended the NCAS Introduction to Atmospheric Sciences in Leeds in January 2019, contributing to the formation of these students. - The 1st Forum on Numerical Weather Prediction and Wind Energy, co-organised by CCA-UNAM and NCAS, took place in Juriquilla, Mexico in June 2019. - The Second International Workshop on Meteorological Models in Wind Power Applications, co-organised by IER-UNAM and NCAS, took place in Reading, UK, in December 2019. - 6-week visit by Ms Lourdes Zamora, student at IER, to NCAS and the Department of Meteorology in Reading during June-July, contributing to the formation of human resources to work in Mexico. - A research visit by Ms Linda Canche, student at IER, to NCAS and the Department of Meteorology in Reading between 1 August and 25 October 2019 , contributing to the formation of human resources to work in Mexico. - A research visit by Ms Susie Nicolau, student at Meteo France, to NCAS and the Department of Meteorology in Reading between 24 June and 30 August 2019. - Drs Thomas and Drew have participated in the International Conference in Energy Meteorology 2019 in Copenhagen, Denmark in June 2019. The collaboration is multidisciplinary involving atmospheric science and renewable energy engineering. |
| Start Year | 2019 |
| Description | IER-CCA-NCAS-Meteorology collaboration on multi-scale meteorological models in wind power resource assessment |
| Organisation | National Autonomous University of Mexico |
| Country | Mexico |
| Sector | Academic/University |
| PI Contribution | Dr Oscar Martinez-Alvarado and Dr Daniel Drew have contributed to the supervision of four students, Mr Carlos Morales, Mr Gustavo Hernández, Ms Linda Canché and Ms Lourdes Zamora, by holding regular Skype meetings to discuss the progress of their research work. These four students have visited the Department of Meteorology, University of Reading at different times. Drs Martinez-Alvarado and Drew also provided supervision during those visits. This supervisory work is leading to several outputs, as follows. Carlos Morales has finished writing the research article 'Estimating wind speed and capacity factors in Mexico using reanalysis data' based on the work done during his academic visit to the Department of Meteorology in 2017. The article has now been submitted to the peer-reviews journal Renewable Energy. Gustavo Hernández has completed his MSc dissertation and has obtained his degree on 23 Januray 2020. Part of the work in his dissertation was also developed during his academic visit to the Department of Meteorology in 2018. Lourdes Zamora visited the Department of Meteorology for 6 weeks in 2019 to develop techniques that will be useful for her MSc studies, which have started in in August 2019. Linda Canché visited the Department of Meteorology between August and October 2019 and is now developing her MSc dissertation to be completed next year based on the work done during her visit. Dr Martinez-Alvarado is currently involved in the preparation of a research article, led by Dr Carlos Lopez (IER) and entitled 'An implementation of meteorological models based on experimental wind power spectrum analysis and power estimations'. Drs Martinez-Alvarado and Drew were examiners of the MSc thesis of Mr Gustavo Hernandez (IER). Dr Simon Thomas joined the NCAS research team, under the supervision of Dr Martinez-Alvarado and Dr Drew, in March 2019 to investigate the atmospheric drivers of wind and wind power production in Mexico. Drs Thomas, Martinez-Alvarado and Drew in collaboaration with Dr Hannah Bloomfield (Reading) have now produced a research article entitled 'Drivers of Extreme Wind Events in Mexico for Wind Power Applications', which has been submitted to The International Journal of Climatology. Dr Martinez-Alvarado has contributed to the organisation of the 1st Forum on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) and Wind Energy that took place in Juriquilla, Mexico on 10-12 June 2019. Dr Martinez-Alvarado and Dr Thomas have contributed to the contents of the 1st Forum on NWP and Wind Energy. Dr Drew did not attend this event due to personal circumstances. Drs Martinez-Alvarado, Thomas and Drew were the local organisers of The Second International Workshop on Meteorological Models in Wind Power Applications, held in Reading between 9 and 12 December 2019, and contributed to the contents of the Workshop. This workshop constituted a major output from this Newton Fund Institutional Links grant. Drs Thomas and Drew contributed to the International Conference in Energy Meteorology 2019 in Copenhagen, Denmark in June 2019. Drs Thomas, Martinez-Alvarado and Drew have submitted an abstract to the EGU General Assembly 2020 to present a paper entitled 'Drivers of Extreme Wind Events in Mexico for Wind Power Applications'. This abstract has been accepted. The meeting will take place in Vienna, Austria, on 3-8 May 2020. Dr Thomas supervised and Drs Martinez-Alvarado and Drew co-supervised the work of a visiting scientist, Ms Susie Nicolau, to the Department of Meteorology. Ms Nicolau visited the Department between 24 June and 30 August 2019 to work on a comparison of the skill of atmospheric reanalysis products to represent the wind characteristics over Mexico. This is leading to a research paper, led by Dr Thomas, currently in preparation. Furthermore, NCAS has contributed to the formation of two students, Abdiel Hernández and Linda Canché, from the Renewable Energy Institute (IER) of the National University of Mexico, who attended the School on Introduction to Atmospheric Sciences organised by NCAS. |
| Collaborator Contribution | Prof Eduardo Ramos and Dr Osvaldo Rodríguez supervise or have supervised at IER the four students mentioned in the question above and two others whose work will also be important for the expected outcomes of the collaboration supported by the Institutional Links grants. Dr Adolfo Magaldi contributes his expertise in running the Weather and Forecast Research (WRF) model to supervise the model runs done by students. Dr Magaldi was the local organiser of the 1st Forum on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) and Wind Energy that took place in Juriquilla, Mexico on 10-12 June 2019. Dr Rodriguez has contributed to two research papers, one led by Mr Carlos Morales entitled 'Estimating wind speed and capacity factors in Mexico using reanalysis data' and recently submitted to the peer-reviewed journal Renewable Energy, and a second one led by Dr Carlos Lopez (IER) entitled 'An implementation of meteorological models based on experimental wind power spectrum analysis and power estimations', currently in preparation. Dr Rodriguez has contributed to the organisation and the content of the Second International Workshop on Meteorological Models in Wind Power Application that took place in Reading, UK on 9-12 December 2019. Dr Rodriguez has continually served as the link between the project and the wind energy industry in Mexico through his participation in various industry fora and direct contact with industry practitioners, one of whom, Mr Juan Ramón López Samayoa attended the Workshop in Reading in December 2019. |
| Impact | - IER students have attended the NCAS Introduction to Atmospheric Sciences in Leeds in January 2019, contributing to the formation of these students. - The 1st Forum on Numerical Weather Prediction and Wind Energy, co-organised by CCA-UNAM and NCAS, took place in Juriquilla, Mexico in June 2019. - The Second International Workshop on Meteorological Models in Wind Power Applications, co-organised by IER-UNAM and NCAS, took place in Reading, UK, in December 2019. - 6-week visit by Ms Lourdes Zamora, student at IER, to NCAS and the Department of Meteorology in Reading during June-July, contributing to the formation of human resources to work in Mexico. - A research visit by Ms Linda Canche, student at IER, to NCAS and the Department of Meteorology in Reading between 1 August and 25 October 2019 , contributing to the formation of human resources to work in Mexico. - A research visit by Ms Susie Nicolau, student at Meteo France, to NCAS and the Department of Meteorology in Reading between 24 June and 30 August 2019. - Drs Thomas and Drew have participated in the International Conference in Energy Meteorology 2019 in Copenhagen, Denmark in June 2019. The collaboration is multidisciplinary involving atmospheric science and renewable energy engineering. |
| Start Year | 2019 |
| Description | Partnerships with the insurance industry |
| Organisation | African Risk Capacity |
| Country | South Africa |
| Sector | Charity/Non Profit |
| PI Contribution | 1. The Investigators worked closely with the financial sector to improve insurance provision for African farmers. This has resulted in extending insurance to more than 1M farmer households in Zambia. 2. The Investigators have also collaborated with the Africa Risk Capacity to incorporate NCAS/University of Reading datasets into the Africa Risk Viewer (ARV), and supported ARC with the use of these data for informing the release of aid across Africa. 3. The Investigators have provided software to PULA Advisors for objective diagnosis of the onset of the rainy season in southern Africa. This has improved the quality of PULA's replanting insurance products. 4. Drought predictions and drought monitoring information, provided by the Investigators, are being incorporated into the World Food Programme seasonal monitoring bulletins for southern Africa. |
| Collaborator Contribution | The partners have co-developed datasets and products (as described above), and provided feedback on their utility for decision making. |
| Impact | Over 1 million farmers are now insured in Zambia using TAMSAT data and products. These farmers received pay outs that have helped them weather several years of poor weather. |
| Start Year | 2015 |
| Description | Partnerships with the insurance industry |
| Organisation | INFORM GmbH |
| Country | Germany |
| Sector | Private |
| PI Contribution | 1. The Investigators worked closely with the financial sector to improve insurance provision for African farmers. This has resulted in extending insurance to more than 1M farmer households in Zambia. 2. The Investigators have also collaborated with the Africa Risk Capacity to incorporate NCAS/University of Reading datasets into the Africa Risk Viewer (ARV), and supported ARC with the use of these data for informing the release of aid across Africa. 3. The Investigators have provided software to PULA Advisors for objective diagnosis of the onset of the rainy season in southern Africa. This has improved the quality of PULA's replanting insurance products. 4. Drought predictions and drought monitoring information, provided by the Investigators, are being incorporated into the World Food Programme seasonal monitoring bulletins for southern Africa. |
| Collaborator Contribution | The partners have co-developed datasets and products (as described above), and provided feedback on their utility for decision making. |
| Impact | Over 1 million farmers are now insured in Zambia using TAMSAT data and products. These farmers received pay outs that have helped them weather several years of poor weather. |
| Start Year | 2015 |
| Description | Partnerships with the insurance industry |
| Organisation | Pula Advisors |
| Country | Switzerland |
| Sector | Private |
| PI Contribution | 1. The Investigators worked closely with the financial sector to improve insurance provision for African farmers. This has resulted in extending insurance to more than 1M farmer households in Zambia. 2. The Investigators have also collaborated with the Africa Risk Capacity to incorporate NCAS/University of Reading datasets into the Africa Risk Viewer (ARV), and supported ARC with the use of these data for informing the release of aid across Africa. 3. The Investigators have provided software to PULA Advisors for objective diagnosis of the onset of the rainy season in southern Africa. This has improved the quality of PULA's replanting insurance products. 4. Drought predictions and drought monitoring information, provided by the Investigators, are being incorporated into the World Food Programme seasonal monitoring bulletins for southern Africa. |
| Collaborator Contribution | The partners have co-developed datasets and products (as described above), and provided feedback on their utility for decision making. |
| Impact | Over 1 million farmers are now insured in Zambia using TAMSAT data and products. These farmers received pay outs that have helped them weather several years of poor weather. |
| Start Year | 2015 |
| Description | Partnerships with the insurance industry |
| Organisation | World Food Programme (Italy, Sudan, Senegal) |
| Country | Italy |
| Sector | Charity/Non Profit |
| PI Contribution | 1. The Investigators worked closely with the financial sector to improve insurance provision for African farmers. This has resulted in extending insurance to more than 1M farmer households in Zambia. 2. The Investigators have also collaborated with the Africa Risk Capacity to incorporate NCAS/University of Reading datasets into the Africa Risk Viewer (ARV), and supported ARC with the use of these data for informing the release of aid across Africa. 3. The Investigators have provided software to PULA Advisors for objective diagnosis of the onset of the rainy season in southern Africa. This has improved the quality of PULA's replanting insurance products. 4. Drought predictions and drought monitoring information, provided by the Investigators, are being incorporated into the World Food Programme seasonal monitoring bulletins for southern Africa. |
| Collaborator Contribution | The partners have co-developed datasets and products (as described above), and provided feedback on their utility for decision making. |
| Impact | Over 1 million farmers are now insured in Zambia using TAMSAT data and products. These farmers received pay outs that have helped them weather several years of poor weather. |
| Start Year | 2015 |
| Description | Visiting Research Student from Brazil |
| Organisation | National Institute for Space Research Brazil |
| Department | Weather Forecasting and Climate Studies Centre (CPTEC) |
| Country | Brazil |
| Sector | Public |
| PI Contribution | NCAS hosted a visiting Research Student from CPTEC/INPE Brazil from November 2018-April 2019 working on developing and evaluating a configuration of their global forecast model (BAM) for use in sub-seasonal prediction. Whilst visiting NCAS, NCAS staff supervised the student's analysis and evaluation of their test configurations and comparisons to other operational sub-seasonal prediction systems and contributed to the writing of a paper describing the initial assessment. A further two papers on the comparison with other systems is in preparation, one led by NCAS staff and the other led by the student. |
| Collaborator Contribution | CPTEC developed the configurations of the model and ran the test forecasts, the student carried out the analysis and led the writing of the published paper and one of the papers in preparation. The primary supervisor of the PhD student is a member of staff at CPTEC and led the design of the overall project. |
| Impact | Support for one published paper, led by the partner institution: Guimarães, B. S., Coelho, C. A. S., Woolnough, S., J., Kubota, P. Y., Bastarz, C. F., Figueroa, S. N., Bonatti, J. P. and Souza, D. C. (2020) Configuration and hindcast quality assessment of a brazilian global sub-seasonal prediction system. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society. ISSN 0035-9009 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3725 |
| Start Year | 2019 |
| Title | Monolithic Clustered Senor Air Pollution System / Sensor System |
| Description | A microfluidic device for the measurement of air pollutants based on clusters of electrochemical and optical sensors in an array, with low power and high fault tolerance characteristics. |
| IP Reference | P199503.GB.01 |
| Protection | Patent application published |
| Year Protection Granted | 2020 |
| Licensed | No |
| Impact | Open source version being developed for use in low income countries. |
| Description | Capacity building workshop |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | We held a three-week virtual workshop to build the capacity of professional meteorologists in Africa to use TAMSAT drought monitoring products. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2020 |
| Description | International workshop on TAMSAT-ALERT climate services for the insurance industry |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Third sector organisations |
| Results and Impact | Attendees at the workshop included the major players in African drought insurance and climate services, from the World Food Organisation (R4), Pula, Risk Shield, Blue Marble, CIMMYT, One Acre Fund , the Ghana Meteorological Service and the Africa Risk Capacity. The chosen organisations were a mix of international, national and third sector organisations. This is the full list of attendees: Emily Black (overall PI) University of Reading Rahel Diro (co-PI, participatory lead) IRI (Columbia) Helen Greatrex (co-PI) IRI (Columbia) Federica Carfagna ARC Tom Philp Blue Marble/XLCatlin Thabbie Chilongo Center for Agricultural Research Development (CARD) - LUANAR Peter Craufurd CIMMYT Michael Tanu Ghana meteorological service Patrick Lamptey Ghana meteorological service Eric Asuman Ghana meteorological service Dan Osgood IRI (Columbia) Markus Enekel IRI (Columbia) Bristol Powell IRI (Columbia) Melody Braun IRI (Columbia) Lisette Braman IRI (Columbia) Step Aston One Acre Fund Steven Kogo PULA Advisors Rose Goslinga PULA Advisors Kalie Gold PULA Advisors Agrotosh Mookerjee Risk Shield Ross Maidment University of Reading Matthew Young University of Reading Katie Cooper University of Reading Daniela Cuellar WFP/R4 Hussein Madih WFP/R4 Jyothi Bylappa Maralenhalli WFP/R4 William Dick WFP/R4 Mathieu Dubreuil WFP/R4 At the workshop we demonstrated the new TAMSAT-ALERT tools and explored applications. The outcomes were: - Progress towards applying the TAMSAT-ALERT for supporting planting date for >500,000 farmers (CIMMYT and 1AF) - TAMSAT-ALERT soil moisture forecasting services for >1M Zambian farmers (Risk Shield) - Objective rainy season identification code passed to Pula Consultants (reaching >500,000 farmers) (Pula) - Inclusion of TAMSAT data in the Africa Risk Capacity portal (national level forecast based finance for most of Africa) (ARC) - New research projects agreed with Ghana Meteorological Agency (GMet) The workshop will thus hugely expand the ODA impact of the TAMSAT-ALERT system developed during TAMSAT-ALERT and SatWIN-ALERT. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2018 |
| Description | Participation in workshop on low cost sensor approaches for LMICs |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Presentations and panel discussion of applications of low cost sensors for air quality monitoring at WMO-led international event on future technologies. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2019 |
| Description | TAMSAT user forum |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | We held a user forum for those engaged in using satellite-based data and products for climate services in Africa. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2020 |
| Description | The challenges of integrating sub-seasonal to seasonal forecasts into multi-hazard early warning systems |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Robust early warning mitigates the impact of impending disaster. The use of weather forecast information in early warning systems potentially lengthens the lead time for action. For this potential to be realized, however, forecast information must be utilized effectively for assessing the risk of multiple, associated hazards. This is a significant scientific and communication challenge. The workshop brought together scientists working on climate variability, predictability and risk assessment with operational forecasters and end users of forecast information. The aims of the workshop were to: • Discuss how sub-seasonal to seasonal forecasts are currently being utilized for multi-hazard risk assessment • Identify the barriers to the use of sub-seasonal to seasonal forecasts in a range of settings • Design a set of case studies of the integration of forecast information into multi-hazard early warning systems • Identify capacity gaps (both research and application) that result in barriers to the effective use of sub-seasonal to seasonal forecasts |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2017 |