PRE-MELT: Preconditioning the trigger for rapid Arctic ice melt
Lead Research Organisation:
National Oceanography Centre
Department Name: Science and Technology
Abstract
The oldest, thickest sea ice in the 'last ice area' of the Arctic - a region thought to be most resilient to climate warming - unexpectedly broke up twice in the past year. Our current theories assume that the end-of-summer ice-covered area will steadily retreat into the Central Arctic Basin as global warming accelerates over coming decades. However, the dynamic break-up events witnessed in 2018 challenge this prevailing view. Here we hypothesise that a weaker, increasingly mobile Central Arctic ice pack is now susceptible to dynamic episodes of fragmentation which can precondition the ice for rapid summer melt. This mechanism of dynamic seasonal preconditioning is unaccounted for in global climate models, so our best current projections are overlooking the possibility for rapid disintegration of the Arctic's last ice area.
Our team has demonstrated that seasonal preconditioning is already responsible for the neighbouring Beaufort Sea becoming ice-free twice in the past five years. Even ten years ago this region contained thick perennial sea ice, mirroring the Central Arctic Ocean, but it has now transitioned to a marginal Arctic sea. Could the processes responsible for the decline of the Beaufort Sea ice pack start to manifest themselves in the Central Arctic? Currently, a shortfall in satellite observations of the Arctic pack ice in summer prevents us from testing our hypothesis. We desperately require pan-Arctic observations of ice melting rates, but so far satellite observations of sea ice thickness are only available during winter months. Our project will therefore deliver the first measurements of Arctic sea ice thickness during summer months, from twin satellites: ESA's Cryosat-2 & NASA's ICESat-2. We have designed a new classification algorithm for separating ice and ocean radar altimeter echoes, regardless of surface melting state, providing the breakthrough required to fill the existing summer observation 'gap'. Exploiting the recent launch of multiple SAR missions for polar reconnaissance, our project will integrate information on ice-pack ablation, motion and deformation to generate a unique year-round sea ice volume budget in the High Arctic.
This record will inform high-resolution ice dynamics simulations, performed with a suite of state-of-the-art sea ice models from stand alone (CICE), ocean-sea ice (NEMO/CICE), to fully coupled regional high resolution (RASM), and global coarser resolution (HadGEM) models, all now equipped with the anisotropic (EAP) sea ice rheology developed by our team. Using the regional and stand-alone models we will analyse the role of mechanics in this keystone region north of Greenland to scrutinise the coupling and preconditioning of winter breakup events - such as those witnessed in 2018 - to summer melting rates. Using the coupled models, we will quantify the likelihood of the Arctic's last ice area breaking up much sooner than expected due to oceanic and atmospheric feedbacks and how this will affect the flushing of ice and freshwater into the North Atlantic.
Our team has demonstrated that seasonal preconditioning is already responsible for the neighbouring Beaufort Sea becoming ice-free twice in the past five years. Even ten years ago this region contained thick perennial sea ice, mirroring the Central Arctic Ocean, but it has now transitioned to a marginal Arctic sea. Could the processes responsible for the decline of the Beaufort Sea ice pack start to manifest themselves in the Central Arctic? Currently, a shortfall in satellite observations of the Arctic pack ice in summer prevents us from testing our hypothesis. We desperately require pan-Arctic observations of ice melting rates, but so far satellite observations of sea ice thickness are only available during winter months. Our project will therefore deliver the first measurements of Arctic sea ice thickness during summer months, from twin satellites: ESA's Cryosat-2 & NASA's ICESat-2. We have designed a new classification algorithm for separating ice and ocean radar altimeter echoes, regardless of surface melting state, providing the breakthrough required to fill the existing summer observation 'gap'. Exploiting the recent launch of multiple SAR missions for polar reconnaissance, our project will integrate information on ice-pack ablation, motion and deformation to generate a unique year-round sea ice volume budget in the High Arctic.
This record will inform high-resolution ice dynamics simulations, performed with a suite of state-of-the-art sea ice models from stand alone (CICE), ocean-sea ice (NEMO/CICE), to fully coupled regional high resolution (RASM), and global coarser resolution (HadGEM) models, all now equipped with the anisotropic (EAP) sea ice rheology developed by our team. Using the regional and stand-alone models we will analyse the role of mechanics in this keystone region north of Greenland to scrutinise the coupling and preconditioning of winter breakup events - such as those witnessed in 2018 - to summer melting rates. Using the coupled models, we will quantify the likelihood of the Arctic's last ice area breaking up much sooner than expected due to oceanic and atmospheric feedbacks and how this will affect the flushing of ice and freshwater into the North Atlantic.
Planned Impact
We anticipate that four broad categories of user group will benefit from the results and activities of the project, in addition to scientists working directly on Arctic sea ice, climate and oceanography. We aim to particularly engage with UK and Canadian stakeholders based on the locations and experience of the project team.
(i) Climate change policy community
Our novel sea ice thickness budget analysis combining model and observation sea ice thickness budget in the Central Arctic Ocean will provide an objective diagnose of the errors in climate models contributing to IPCC reports. The conclusions of this project will therefore be of critical importance to bodies charged with summarizing (IPCC, Met Office) and directing (NERC, European Space Agency) climate science. Our team's research has previously been represented in NGO climate change reviews (such as the recent AMAP: SWIPA assessment, but also IPCC AR5 reports and ArcticNet Hudson Bay IRIS), and in Davos at the Arctic Science Forum.
(ii) Marine transportation industry
The Northeast and Northwest Arctic passages have been sea ice-free for a longer summer season in many recent years, providing a quicker cheaper alternative to traditional shipping routes between Europe and Asia. Tourist cruise ships, such as the Crystal Serenity in 2016, are also beginning to navigate Arctic waterways during summer, and ship traffic through the Canadian Arctic has more than doubled over the past 40 years. We anticipate that our sea ice thickness intialised forecasts could be used to predict least-cost (i.e. viable, lowest risk) routes for both ice-reinforced and non-reinforced ships through Arctic passages, helping to identify zones of high vulnerability to ice hazards. Moreover, these data would be valuable for marine insurance risk & exposure management and for international shipping regulatory authorities, e.g. the International Maritime Organization (IMO), to support polar transportation conventions. In recent years, private industry stakeholders such as this have been an active participant in SIPN and will be able to easily access our data through this platform.
(iii) Oil and gas industry
Anticipated decline in output from existing oil and LPG resources will potentially require the development of nearly 50% new worldwide energy production capacity by 2035. Incidentally, the Arctic is thought to hold 30% of the world's undiscovered gas and 13% of its undiscovered oil (including 84% offshore). Oil and gas companies have begun to perform initial prospecting and drilling tests, for example by Shell in the Chukchi Sea in 2015. However, it is crucial that these operations are only executed in a sustainable way, with particular attention paid to the risk of sea and glacial ice hazards on infrastructure. Our project will inform forecasts of the probability and timing of ice-free zones over oil and gas leasing areas, such as those in the Chukchi Sea, as well as over active British leases in the Norwegian Arctic. Results will be communicated to private sector firms in marine transportation and O&G industries through a dedicated user workshop towards the end of the project.
(iv) General public
In addition to a large media exposure by our team members (radio, TV, newspapers, YouTube), we intend to develop sea ice products that are accessible to beneficiaries at a variety of levels, including primary and secondary school students via our UCL @GeoBus and through SIPN. We will also host with NASA colleagues and IASC fellows a Hackathon on Arctic risks and extremes. The forthcoming upgraded SIPN-2 platform and our CPOM website will be capable of providing straightforward and visually appealing maps of our products, along with links to non-technical web pages explaining how the satellite data are acquired and processed. In addition, we will produce a set of free public-outreach posters, for use in secondary schools, museums, outreach events in the UK, Germany, Canada etc.
(i) Climate change policy community
Our novel sea ice thickness budget analysis combining model and observation sea ice thickness budget in the Central Arctic Ocean will provide an objective diagnose of the errors in climate models contributing to IPCC reports. The conclusions of this project will therefore be of critical importance to bodies charged with summarizing (IPCC, Met Office) and directing (NERC, European Space Agency) climate science. Our team's research has previously been represented in NGO climate change reviews (such as the recent AMAP: SWIPA assessment, but also IPCC AR5 reports and ArcticNet Hudson Bay IRIS), and in Davos at the Arctic Science Forum.
(ii) Marine transportation industry
The Northeast and Northwest Arctic passages have been sea ice-free for a longer summer season in many recent years, providing a quicker cheaper alternative to traditional shipping routes between Europe and Asia. Tourist cruise ships, such as the Crystal Serenity in 2016, are also beginning to navigate Arctic waterways during summer, and ship traffic through the Canadian Arctic has more than doubled over the past 40 years. We anticipate that our sea ice thickness intialised forecasts could be used to predict least-cost (i.e. viable, lowest risk) routes for both ice-reinforced and non-reinforced ships through Arctic passages, helping to identify zones of high vulnerability to ice hazards. Moreover, these data would be valuable for marine insurance risk & exposure management and for international shipping regulatory authorities, e.g. the International Maritime Organization (IMO), to support polar transportation conventions. In recent years, private industry stakeholders such as this have been an active participant in SIPN and will be able to easily access our data through this platform.
(iii) Oil and gas industry
Anticipated decline in output from existing oil and LPG resources will potentially require the development of nearly 50% new worldwide energy production capacity by 2035. Incidentally, the Arctic is thought to hold 30% of the world's undiscovered gas and 13% of its undiscovered oil (including 84% offshore). Oil and gas companies have begun to perform initial prospecting and drilling tests, for example by Shell in the Chukchi Sea in 2015. However, it is crucial that these operations are only executed in a sustainable way, with particular attention paid to the risk of sea and glacial ice hazards on infrastructure. Our project will inform forecasts of the probability and timing of ice-free zones over oil and gas leasing areas, such as those in the Chukchi Sea, as well as over active British leases in the Norwegian Arctic. Results will be communicated to private sector firms in marine transportation and O&G industries through a dedicated user workshop towards the end of the project.
(iv) General public
In addition to a large media exposure by our team members (radio, TV, newspapers, YouTube), we intend to develop sea ice products that are accessible to beneficiaries at a variety of levels, including primary and secondary school students via our UCL @GeoBus and through SIPN. We will also host with NASA colleagues and IASC fellows a Hackathon on Arctic risks and extremes. The forthcoming upgraded SIPN-2 platform and our CPOM website will be capable of providing straightforward and visually appealing maps of our products, along with links to non-technical web pages explaining how the satellite data are acquired and processed. In addition, we will produce a set of free public-outreach posters, for use in secondary schools, museums, outreach events in the UK, Germany, Canada etc.
Organisations
- National Oceanography Centre (Lead Research Organisation)
- UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD (Collaboration)
- Meteorological Office UK (Collaboration)
- UNIVERSITY OF READING (Collaboration)
- National Centre for Earth Observation (Collaboration)
- European Space Agency (Collaboration)
- UNIVERSITY OF LEEDS (Collaboration)
- PLYMOUTH MARINE LABORATORY (Collaboration)
- UNIVERSITY OF CAMBRIDGE (Collaboration)
- British Antarctic Survey (Collaboration)
- Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (Collaboration)
- Alfred-Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research (Collaboration)
Publications
Allen A
(2022)
Developing a well-received pre-matriculation program: the evolution of MedFIT.
in Discover education
Andersson T
(2021)
Seasonal Arctic sea ice forecasting with probabilistic deep learning
in Nature Communications
Andersson T
(2020)
Deep learning for monthly Arctic sea ice concentration prediction
Andersson T
(2021)
A daily to seasonal Arctic sea ice forecasting AI
Andersson T
(2022)
Seasonal Arctic sea ice forecasting with probabilistic deep learning
Bacon S
(2022)
Arctic Ocean Boundary Exchanges: A Review
in Oceanography
Bateson A
(2020)
Impact of sea ice floe size distribution on seasonal fragmentation and melt of Arctic sea ice
in The Cryosphere
Bateson A
(2022)
Sea ice floe size: its impact on pan-Arctic and local ice mass and required model complexity
in The Cryosphere
Blockley E
(2020)
The Future of Sea Ice Modeling: Where Do We Go from Here?
in Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
Clare M
(2023)
Climate change hotspots and implications for the global subsea telecommunications network
in Earth-Science Reviews
Florindo-López C
(2020)
Arctic Ocean and Hudson Bay Freshwater Exports: New Estimates from Seven Decades of Hydrographic Surveys on the Labrador Shelf
in Journal of Climate
Kelly S
(2020)
They Came From the Pacific: How Changing Arctic Currents Could Contribute to an Ecological Regime Shift in the Atlantic Ocean
in Earth's Future
Kelly S
(2019)
On the Origin of Water Masses in the Beaufort Gyre
in Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans
Landy J
(2021)
Improved Arctic Sea Ice Freeboard Retrieval From Satellite Altimetry Using Optimized Sea Surface Decorrelation Scales
in Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans
Landy JC
(2022)
A year-round satellite sea-ice thickness record from CryoSat-2.
in Nature
Luneva M
(2020)
Hotspots of Dense Water Cascading in the Arctic Ocean: Implications for the Pacific Water Pathways
in Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans
Rabe B
(2022)
Overview of the MOSAiC expedition: Physical oceanography
in Elem Sci Anth
Robson J
(2020)
The Evaluation of the North Atlantic Climate System in UKESM1 Historical Simulations for CMIP6
in Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems
Rynders S
(2021)
Coupled processes in an ocean-sea ice-wave configuration
Rynders, S.
(2019)
Combined sea ice rheology code
Rynders, S., And Aksenov, Y.
(2022)
ARC36 stand-alone SI3 Arctic configuration (Model Configuration and User Guide)
Skliris N
(2021)
Assessing Extreme Environmental Loads on Offshore Structures in the North Sea from High-Resolution Ocean Currents, Waves and Wind Forecasting
in Journal of Marine Science and Engineering
Solomon A
(2020)
Freshwater in the Arctic Ocean 2010-2019
Solomon A
(2021)
Freshwater in the Arctic Ocean 2010-2019
in Ocean Science
Wang Y
(2023)
Summer sea ice floe perimeter density in the Arctic: high-resolution optical satellite imagery and model evaluation
in The Cryosphere
Wilson C
(2021)
Significant variability of structure and predictability of Arctic Ocean surface pathways affects basin-wide connectivity
in Communications Earth & Environment
| Description | The oldest, thickest sea ice in the 'last ice area' of the Arctic - a region thought to be most resilient to climate warming - unexpectedly broke up twice in the winter and summer 2018 and few times since then. Current theories assume that the end-of-summer ice-covered area will steadily retreat into the Central Arctic Basin as global warming accelerates over coming decades. However, the dynamic break-up events witnessed in last few years challenge this prevailing view. The study test the hypothesis that weakened and increasingly mobile Central Arctic ice pack is now susceptible to dynamic episodes of fragmentation which can precondition the ice for rapid summer retreat. The mechanism of dynamic seasonal preconditioning is unaccounted for in global climate models, so even the best current climate projections can overlook a possibility for rapid disintegration of the last sea ice area in the Arctic. The project analysed satellite data and sea ice and ocean model results and arrived to the following key findings. The preconditioning is caused by ice dynamical divergence and melt due to the higher air temperatures and warmer ocean. The episodic currents are branching from the warmer shallowing part of the Atlantic waters coming through the Fram Strait and reaching north of the Greenland cause fast ice melt and thinning, thus sea ice can be broken more easily. We found evidence of the warm water intrusion on the western side of the Fram Strait in the MOSAIC data from the RV Polastern drift. The heat stored by this warm water can potentially reach ocean surface and lead to the enhanced sea ice melting. Combined with the strong sea ice deformations during the storm events happened in July-August 2020, this sea ice melting can lead to the rapid disintegration of the thick ice and polynyas formation observed from satellites during this period. Both, the increased frequency of the storms in the Eurasian part of the Arctic due to the climate change and a more prominent east-to-west surface oceanic flow observed in the area increase a probability of the strong winds, warm air and ocean reaching the old sea ice and accelerating its disintegration. |
| Exploitation Route | The project delivers new methodologies to more accurately observe sea ice from satellites and to model sea ice dynamical changes in great detail at the kilometre resolution on the pan-Arctic scale and a novel analysis and sea ice forecasting based on the Artificial Intelligence and Deep Machine Learning. These methodological advances pave the way to improvements in forecasting and climate predictions of the sea ice and ocean conditions in the Arctic. The results is a benefit for a broad category of users in academia, in applied research and in maritime industries and in policy and regulation. Scientists, working directly in Arctic sea ice, climate and oceanography, climate change policy community benefit via novel sea ice thickness budget analysis combining model and observation sea ice thickness data. This analysis provides an objective diagnose of the errors in climate models and is of critical importance to the UK Met Office and other contributors to the IPCC reports and for directing Arctic climate science (beneficiaries are e.g., NERC/UKRI and European Space Agency). With opening more of the Arctic waterways in summer for longer navigation periods, ship traffic through the Canadian Arctic has more than doubled over the past 40 years and intensified through the Arctic Ocean overall. This presents new safety challenges for Marine transportation industry to predict highly variable sea ice conditions for navigating, to minimise the risks and mitigate consequences of potential maritime accidents. We anticipate that our sea ice thickness intialised forecasts combined with off-shore operations risk assessment methodology and ice provinces detection algorithms available through the project could be used to predict least-cost (i.e. viable, lowest risk) routes for both ice-reinforced and non-reinforced ships through Arctic passages, helping to identify zones of high vulnerability to ice hazards. Data will be valuable for marine insurance risk & exposure management and for international shipping regulatory authorities. Oil and gas industry will require the prospecting drilling support for the risk of sea and glacial ice hazards on infrastructure. The potential beneficiaries will be reach out through making data publicly available and publishing project summary highlights a the end of the project. General public website will be engaged via appealing maps, links to non-technical web pages set up at the partner institutions, explaining how the satellite and model data are acquired and processed. In addition, we are planning to produce a set of free public-outreach posters, for use in schools at outreach events in the UK, Germany and Canada. |
| Sectors | Aerospace, Defence and Marine,Communities and Social Services/Policy,Education,Energy,Environment,Leisure Activities, including Sports, Recreation and Tourism,Transport |
| URL | https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2022-66 |
| Description | The data and findings from the project provide a valuable input for marine risk and marine ecosystem management to support polar conventions. The improvements in sea ice analysis and forecasting using satellite remote sensing, Artificial Intelligence systems and high-resolution modelling introduced by the project facilitate robust assessments of the zones of high vulnerability to ice hazards. The data is accessible through the project partners dedicated websites, British Ocean Data Centre (BODC) and Sea Ice Predictions Network (SIPN) platform. Off-shore resources exploration and exploitation, from existing oil and LPG resources to renewable and green marine energy, and from mineral mining to nature-based marine solutions will require that these marine operations are only executed in a sustainable way, with particular attention paid to the risk of sea and glacial ice hazards on infrastructure and marine habitats. Minimising negative societal impacts on the local Arctic population and maximising benefits from such developments is the highest priority. As a part of the ongoing outreach effort, the project provides forecasting methodology helping World Wildlife Foundation (WWF) for accurate seasonal forecasts of sea ice for predicting 'mega haul-outs' of Pacific walrus, occurring when tens of thousands of walruses are forced to congregate on land due to a lack of sea ice to rest on. Predictions for the migration of cetacean populations linked to the sea ice changes helps to prevent collisions between ships and endangered whale species. Sea ice forecasts allow stakeholders to adapt activities to avoid provinces critical for Arctic biodiversity. The value of sea ice thickness observations from the CryoSat-2 mission to the scientific community and commercial sector, for example, shipping companies operating in the Arctic, offshore marine and insurance companies, have guided the European Commission to support the Copernicus Polar Ice and Snow Topography Altimeter Programme to measure the sea ice thickness and overlying snow depth. Dr Rynders and Dr Aksenov provided NOC input to the sea ice modelling strategic development for EU Marine Environment Services Copernicus (EU IMMERSE/IS ENES3); output: recommendations for sea ice rheology development, Blockley et al., "Sea ice rheology" 2022, tis formed climate and operational ocean modelling strategy for the next 5-10 years. Dr Aksenov contributed to the topics of the Action Plan (AP) document for the Arctic group WG4 (Predicted Ocean) of the UN Decade of the Ocean (https://www.oceandecade.dk/decade-actions/arctic- action-plan). Dr Aksenov presented an invited talk Presentation at the UN Climate Change Conference (COP25) in Madrid in Dec 2019 for the Cryosphere Pavilion: "The New Arctic: The impact of change in Arctic Ocean sea ice on marine ecosystems and maritime industries ", featuring wave impact on the environment and industries in the future climate. (https://www.changing-arctic-ocean.ac.uk/science-outputs/arctic-conferences/santiago-climate-change-conference/). Drs Yevgeny Aksenov and Stefanie Rynders presented invited talks at the In International Union of Theoretical and Applied Mechanics (UTAM) Symposium on Physics and Mechanics of Sea Ice in June 2019, addressing impact of wave and ice on the safety in the ice covered areas. (https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-80439-8_12). The initial fundings on the marginal ice zone dynamics contributed to the Year of Polar Prediction Arctic Science Workshop 2019 (https://www.polarprediction.net/meetings-calendar/science-workshops/yopp-arctic-science-workshop/). Stefanie Rynders has delivered a talk "Predicting ocean waves and sea ice and the Polar Oceans" at the meeting held in Helsinki (Finland) in January 2019. Aksenov and Rynders have visited the EU Maritime College ABOA MARE (https://www.aboamare.fi) in Turku (Finland) in January 2019 and discussed the requirement for the environmental data for maritime training using ship bridge simulators, including ice fragmentation and wave information in the Marginal Ice Zones. Contributed to the MCCIP report card: Hwang, B., Aksenov, Y., Blockley, E., Tsamados, M.,. Browne, T., Landy, J.,Stevens, D., Wilkinson, J., Impacts of climate change on Arctic sea ice, The United Kingdom Marine Climate Change Impacts Partnership (MCCIP) 2020. Paper analysis the Arctic navigational risks and environmental safety of the marine operations has been published for the the International Union for Applied and Theoretical Mechanics Physics of Sea Ice (Springer). Co-authored forecasting methods to improve sea ice forecasting skills for the WWF monitoring (Andersson T, Hosking J, Pérez-Ortiz M, Paige B, Elliott A, Russell C., Aksenov Y.,.... Shuckburgh E, (2021). Seasonal Arctic sea ice forecasting with probabilistic deep learning. Nature Communications 12, 5124. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-25257-4 ). A summary paper on the Arctic sea ice changes on the climate risks and key impacts is prepared and is in review: Blockley, E.W., Aksenov, Y., Campbell, K., Hewitt, H.T., Oltmanns, M., Screen, J. A., Tsamados, M., Impacts of climate change on Arctic sea ice, UK Marine Climate Change Impacts Partnership, 2023. |
| First Year Of Impact | 2019 |
| Sector | Aerospace, Defence and Marine,Agriculture, Food and Drink,Communities and Social Services/Policy,Digital/Communication/Information Technologies (including Software),Education,Energy,Environment,Leisure Activities, including Sports, Recreation and Tourism,Culture, Heritage, Museums and Collections,Security and Diplomacy,Transport |
| Impact Types | Cultural,Societal,Economic,Policy & public services |
| Description | A "manifesto" paper on a new cross-disciplinary subject "Socio-oceanography" (lead by K. Popova, in review). |
| Geographic Reach | Multiple continents/international |
| Policy Influence Type | Contribution to new or improved professional practice |
| Description | A summary paper on the Arctic sea ice changes, on the climate risks and key impacts |
| Geographic Reach | Multiple continents/international |
| Policy Influence Type | Contribution to new or improved professional practice |
| Description | (COMFORT) - Our common future ocean in the Earth system - quantifying coupled cycles of carbon, oxygen, and nutrients for determining and achieving safe operating spaces with respect to tipping points |
| Amount | € 8,482,148 (EUR) |
| Funding ID | 820989 |
| Organisation | European Commission |
| Sector | Public |
| Country | European Union (EU) |
| Start | 09/2019 |
| End | 08/2023 |
| Description | Biogeochemical processes and ecosystem function in changing polar systems and their global impacts (BIOPOLE) |
| Amount | £8,924,449 (GBP) |
| Funding ID | NE/W004933/1 |
| Organisation | Natural Environment Research Council |
| Sector | Public |
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Start | 04/2022 |
| End | 03/2027 |
| Description | Consequences of Arctic Warming for European Climate and Extreme Weather |
| Amount | £290,138 (GBP) |
| Funding ID | NE/V004875/1 |
| Organisation | Natural Environment Research Council |
| Sector | Public |
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Start | 11/2020 |
| End | 11/2023 |
| Title | Coastal permafrost erosion model |
| Description | Generic off-line pan-Arctic modelling tool of the coastal permafrost erosion has been developed in the framework of the new coupled ocean-sea ice-waves NEMO-CICE-WW3 model and can be used in other coupled and forced ocean-wave models. The developed model follows closely Wight's model (Barnhart 2014) and calculates coastal erosion due to wave action and sea level change anomalies, with added permafrost probability and adjustment for rocky/non rocky coast. The erosion rates depend on geological permafrost temperature, probability (PEX); ice content (ACDD) and marine parameters (SST, SWH, wave period). ACDD has the required variables to calculated organic carbon, nitrate and phosphate fluxes from erosion rates. The erosion model uses inputs from the coupled ocean-sea ice-waves model and land permafrost model and allows simulating permafrost erosion rates and fluxes of the terrigeneous matter, including fluxes of carbon, nutrients and contaminants. |
| Type Of Material | Improvements to research infrastructure |
| Year Produced | 2022 |
| Provided To Others? | Yes |
| Impact | The pan-Arctic model of the coastal permafrost erosion model can provide data on erosion rates for the current and future climate states and leads to the improved simulations of the marine biogeochemistry by accounting for the input of the land biogeochemical fluxes and land contaminants into the marine environment. The model provides coastal permafrost retreat data which allows assessing risks for the shore stability, shore settlements, on-shore structures and installations and can help coastal infrastructure development planning and climate impacts mitigation. The model can used for the ice barrier erosion assessments in the Antarctica. |
| URL | https://meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU22/EGU22-5807.html |
| Title | Coupled wave-ice ocean model |
| Description | Coupled wave-ice ocean global model code based on the NEMO-CICE-WW3 v3.6 configuration has been developed. The components will be made available to the NEMO modelling system. |
| Type Of Material | Improvements to research infrastructure |
| Year Produced | 2022 |
| Provided To Others? | Yes |
| Impact | The new coupled model introduces improved simulations of the coupled processes between sea ice, waves and ocean and allows accounting for the effects of wave mixing and coastal erosion on the ocean and marine biogeochemical fluxes. The new model enables calculating risks for the off shore structure s and ships in the icy ocean environment and improve safety of the marine operations. |
| Title | Model to assess combined risks from ocean currents, tides, waves and sea ice for offshore operations in the polar oceans and ice-covered seas |
| Description | Off-line model method and tool to calculate critical loads and safety limits to navigate in sea ice has been developed in the framework of the new coupled ocean-sea ice-waves NEMO-CICE-WW3 model by Drs Stefanie Rynders and Yevgeny Aksenov. The model uses inputs from the coupled ocean-sea ice-waves model and applies newly developed dynamical and static ice loads calculations, along with the safety ice navigation limits for different ship classes and critical loads from combined effects from currents and waves. |
| Type Of Material | Improvements to research infrastructure |
| Year Produced | 2022 |
| Provided To Others? | Yes |
| Impact | It produces timeseries and spatial maps of the loads and maps safety areas for marine operations, including ships navigation and fixed off-shore structures exploitation. The model allows assessments of the combined navigational and structural integrity risks of the fixed and floating off-shore installations from sea ice drift and compressions, ocean waves, currents and tides regionally and globally in all the seasons, as for the present day conditions, as well as for the future climates. This is essential for the marine safety planning and forecasting. |
| URL | https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-030-80439-8_12 |
| Title | New improved sea ice rheology (Elastic-Anisotropic-Plastic) for SI3 regional configuration of the Arctic |
| Description | New improved sea ice rheology (Elastic-Anisotropic-Plastic) has been developed for the Sea Ice Integrated Initiative SI3 and included in the NEMO ocean modelling framework for the ocean research, climate and forecasting based on the ORCA2_SAS_ICE reference configuration. The NEMO code is available from https://forge.nemo-ocean.eu/nemo/nemo. This configuration has a resolution of 1/36 degree and is a cut-out of the global 1/36 configuration: https://github.com/immerse-project/ORCA36-demonstrator. The test cases for idealised domains are also available via the NEMO4.2 code download. Code authors: Drs Stefanie Rynders and Yevgeny Aksenov. The code base is a pre-4.2.0 NEMO version, the model source code can be found in the file src_tar. |
| Type Of Material | Improvements to research infrastructure |
| Year Produced | 2022 |
| Provided To Others? | Yes |
| Impact | The Elastic-Anisotropic-Plastic sea ice rheology simulates more accurately ice dynamics and open water leads than. the conventional rheologies, improving air-ocean momentum and heat coupling in the models. This leads to the improvement of the forecasts, CMEMS re-analysis and climate simulations. The research is done under the NERC Project "PRE-MELT" 15 (NE/T000260/1) and European Union's Horizon 2020 research and from the innovation programme under grant agreement No 821926 (project IMMERSE-Improving Models for Marine EnviRonment SErvices). The repository fulfils the public data access requirements of these projects. |
| URL | https://zenodo.org/record/6327871 |
| Title | Regional Arctic (north of ~50N) model NOC FRONTIER ARC36 NEMO-SI3 coupled sea ice-ocean model |
| Description | Regional Arctic (north of ~50N) model NOC FRONTIER ARC36 NEMO-SI3 is set up and tested at 1/36 deg. (~1.3 km) resolution, including stand-alone sea ice and coupled sea ice-ocean configurations. https://zenodo.org/record/6628486#.ZAn6fxP7RT4 |
| Type Of Material | Improvements to research infrastructure |
| Year Produced | 2022 |
| Provided To Others? | Yes |
| Impact | NOC FRONTIER ARC36 NEMO-SI3 coupled sea ice-ocean model simulates realistic linear kinematic features (LKFs) and opening of leads. LKFs and open water leads change significantly in response to variability in the wind forcing on sub-daily scales. Model provides a promising alternative for high resolution sea ice modelling and simulations up to a very short timescale. |
| Title | Combined MIZ and pack sea ice rheology model |
| Description | The model includes the implemented combined granular rheology of Marginal Ice Zone sea ice and pack sea ice rheology. Model accounts for the impacts of sea ice fragmentation by waves on sea ice rheology and dynamics (floe size distribution is one of the prognostic parameters). The model has been developed at the National Oceanography Centre by Drs Stefanie Rynders and Yevgeny Aksenov and has been included in the coupled and forced ocean-sea ice-waves NEMO(v3.6/v4.0+)-CICE5-ECMWF-WAM/WW3 configurations. It is made freely available through the UK NERC/UKMO Joint Sea Ice Modelling Programme and is widely used by the UK research community. https://eprints.soton.ac.uk/428655/; https://eprints.soton.ac.uk/428658/ |
| Type Of Material | Computer model/algorithm |
| Year Produced | 2019 |
| Provided To Others? | Yes |
| Impact | Improved sea ice rheology which include granular behaviour of sea ice in the Marginal Ice Zones (MIZ) to be used in the next generation climate models. |
| URL | https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-030-80439-8_13 |
| Title | Coupled wave-sea ice-ocean global model |
| Description | A fully coupled global ocean-sea ice-waves model has been developed for the model configuration NEMOv3.6-CICE5-WW3. |
| Type Of Material | Computer model/algorithm |
| Year Produced | 2022 |
| Provided To Others? | Yes |
| Impact | Improved predictions of the ocean and sea state in the ice covered areas, with applications for climate, forecasting, off-shore safety and marine industries. |
| URL | https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-80439-8_12 |
| Title | Dataset on satellite derived Arctic sea ice thickness from Landy, J. C., Bouffard, J., Wilson, C., Rynders, S., Aksenov, Y., & Tsamados, M. (2022). Mapping Arctic Sea Ice thickness: A new method |
| Description | 2. Dataset on satellite derived Arctic sea ice thickness derived from Landy, J. C., Bouffard, J., Wilson, C., Rynders, S., Aksenov, Y., & Tsamados, M. (2022). Mapping Arctic Sea Ice thickness: A new method for improved ice freeboard retrieval from satellite altimetry are developed for the period 2010-2020. Authorea Preprints. https://data.bas.ac.uk/full-record.php?id=GB/NERC/BAS/PDC/01613; https://www.authorea.com/doi/full/10.1002/essoar.10506919.2 |
| Type Of Material | Database/Collection of data |
| Year Produced | 2022 |
| Provided To Others? | Yes |
| Impact | For the first time Arctic sea ice thickness has been obtained from the satellite retrievals for the whole year, and dataset for 2010-2020 were created. Tn is a major data source for the climate research and for improving operational forecast for shipping safety in the Arctic. |
| Title | Improved sea ice rheology (Elastic-Anisotropic-Plastic) for the European ice model SI3 in the NEMO ocean modelling framework |
| Description | SI3 regional configuration of the Arctic. New improved sea ice rheology (Elastic-Anisotropic-Plastic) has been developed for the Sea Ice Integrated Initiative SI3 and included in the NEMO ocean modelling framework for the ocean research, climate and forecasting based on the ORCA2_SAS_ICE reference configuration. The NEMO code is available from https://forge.nemo-ocean.eu/nemo/nemo. This configuration has a resolution of 1/36 degree and is a cut-out of the global 1/36 configuration: https://github.com/immerse-project/ORCA36-demonstrator. Code authors: Drs Stefanie Rynders and Yevgeny Aksenov. The code base is a pre-4.2.0 NEMO version, the model source code can be found in the file src_tar. |
| Type Of Material | Computer model/algorithm |
| Year Produced | 2022 |
| Provided To Others? | Yes |
| Impact | Improved forecasting skills of the EU model to deliver a wide range of ultra-high ~km-scale forecasts and climate projections for IPCC AR7. |
| URL | http://forge.ipsl.jussieu.fr/nemo/browser/NEMO/trunk/src/ICE/ |
| Title | NOC FRONTIER ARC36 NEMO-SI3 coupled sea ice-ocean model and tests with three rheology settings |
| Description | NOC FRONTIER ARC36 NEMO-SI3 coupled sea ice-ocean model and tests with three rheology settings (aEVP, EAP and EAP-isotropic) are archived on ARCHER-II and BODC. Code, configuration settings are on ARCHER-II and at https://zenodo.org/record/6628486#.ZAn6fxP7RT4 |
| Type Of Material | Database/Collection of data |
| Year Produced | 2023 |
| Provided To Others? | Yes |
| Impact | The model integrations show that sea ice concentration, lead positions (and linear kinematic features LKFs), and ice drift divergence are different in all the three rheology options. EAP shows more LKFs than the aEVP with more acute intersection angles, in better agreement with observations. In EAP LKFs change significantly in response to wind forcing variations on sub-daily scales, with aEVP less so. EAP simulations show a large degree of ice anisotropy. Isotropic settings (anisotropy is set constant=0) of EAP show a different pattern of more stepped leads, which also appear in real sea ice. This points out the key role of sea ice anisotropy evolution for realistic simulations. EAP provides a promising alternative for high resolution sea ice modelling, simulating ice plates dynamics impact on ocean eddies. |
| Title | Off-line model to assess combined risks from ocean currents, tides, waves and sea ice for offshore operations in the polar oceans and ice-covered seas |
| Description | Off-line model to calculate critical loads and safety limits to navigate in sea ice has been developed in the framework of the new coupled ocean-sea ice-waves NEMO-CICE-WW3 model by Drs Stefanie Rynders and Yevgeny Aksenov (NOC). The model uses inputs from the coupled ocean-sea ice-waves model and applies newly developed dynamical and static ice loads calculations, along with the safety ice navigation limits for different ship classes and critical loads from combined effects from currents and waves. The model is generic and can use netcdf input from any ocean-sea ice-wave models. The model produces timeseries and spatial maps of the loads and maps safety areas for marine operations, including ships navigation and fixed off-shore structures exploitation. |
| Type Of Material | Computer model/algorithm |
| Year Produced | 2022 |
| Provided To Others? | Yes |
| Impact | The model allows assessments of the combined navigational and structural integrity risks of the fixed and floating off-shore installations from sea ice drift and compressions, ocean waves, currents and tides regionally and globally in all the seasons, as for the present day conditions, as well as for the future climates. This is essential for the marine safety planning and forecasting. |
| URL | https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-80439-8_12 |
| Title | Off-line pan-Arctic model of the coastal permafrost erosion |
| Description | Off-line pan-Arctic model of the coastal permafrost erosion has been developed in the framework of the new coupled ocean-sea ice-waves NEMO-CICE-WW3 model. The erosion model uses inputs from the coupled ocean-sea ice-waves model and land permafrost model and allows simulating permafrost erosion rates and fluxes of the terrigeneous matter, including fluxes of carbon, nutrients and contaminants. The developed model follows closely Wight's model (Barnhart 2014) and calculates coastal erosion due to wave action and sea level change anomalies, with added permafrost probability and adjustment for rocky/non rocky coast. The erosion rates depend on geological permafrost temperature, probability (PEX); ice content (ACDD) and marine parameters (SST, SWH, wave period). ACDD has the required variables to calculated organic carbon, nitrate and phosphate fluxes from erosion rates. |
| Type Of Material | Computer model/algorithm |
| Year Produced | 2022 |
| Provided To Others? | Yes |
| Impact | Arctic coastal erosion is an increasing problem via threat to infrastructure, also it affects the marine environment. Arctic coast is mainly soft sediment permafrost. Sea ice protection is decreasing, leading to increased erosion from waves and melting. The pan-Arctic model of the coastal permafrost erosion model leads to the improved simulations of the marine biogeochemistry by accounting for the input of the land biogeochemical fluxes and land contaminants into the marine environment. The model offers quantitative assessments of the future erosion trends, informing mitigation scenarios of the coastal structure integrity and settlements safety. The model can be used to assess melting and collapse of the ice barrier from the waves in the Antarctica and sea level rise. |
| URL | https://meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU22/EGU22-5807.html |
| Description | "Eddy Properties and Impacts in the Changing Arctic" (EPICA) |
| Organisation | Alfred-Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research |
| Department | Geoscientific Department |
| Country | Germany |
| Sector | Private |
| PI Contribution | High-resolution simulations of ocean NEMO model coupled to the novel sea ice model SI3 to assess impacts of (sub)mesoscale eddies in the Arctic Ocean, during the MOSAiC period on sea ice, mixing, transport of water masses in the ocean, and small-scale turbulent processes. |
| Collaborator Contribution | The project partners will combine the high-resolution modelling capabilities offered by the multi-resolution Finite volumE Sea ice-Ocean Model (FESOM) with the unique year-round data collected during the MOSAiC campaign; will synthesize the observational data with model results to study processes forming eddies, understand the importance of eddies for the ocean, sea ice and air-sea exchange, estimate ocean internal variability relative to forced variability, and derive eddy diffusivity which can help to improve eddy parameterisations, thus the fidelity of climate models. |
| Impact | High resolution model integrations and comparison with MOSAiC data. |
| Start Year | 2021 |
| Description | EU ALBATROSS Programme lead by ESA on global tides in polar areas from models and satellites. |
| Organisation | European Space Agency |
| Country | France |
| Sector | Public |
| PI Contribution | Collaboration between NOC (external partner) and EU ALBATROSS Programme lead by ESA on global tides in polar areas from models and satellites is focused on improvement of tidal simulations in climate large scale models. |
| Collaborator Contribution | Partners deliver global tides data from satellites and advanced tidal hydrodynamical modelling. |
| Impact | Global tides data from satellites has been collected. |
| Start Year | 2020 |
| Description | Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) Programme |
| Organisation | Alfred-Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research |
| Country | Germany |
| Sector | Private |
| PI Contribution | Retreating Arctic sea ice is expected to change the way the ocean interacts with the atmosphere, which will affect the Arctic ecosystems. Te partnership helps to understand how the sea ice decline and the longer summer season will change the pathways of nutrients which enter the Arctic Ocean from the Atlantic and Pacific. |
| Collaborator Contribution | The partners are to examine how the differences between parts of the Arctic ecosystem may change and combine in situ measurements from MOSAiC fieldwork with ultra-high-resolution computer modelling to quantify current and future changes in the Arctic ecosystems. |
| Impact | A full year of extreme sea-ice and atmosphere conditions in the Eurasian Arctic: the OCEAN environment during MOSAiC Benjamin Rabe1, Céline Heuzé2, and the MOSAiC OCEAN Team: Yevgeny Aksenov , NOCS ; Jacob Allerholt , AWI ; Marylou Athanase , LOCEAN-IPSL ; Chris Basque , WHOI ; Dorothea Bauch , GEOMAR ; Till Baumann , UiB ; Dake Chen , SIO ; Silvia Cole , WHOI ; Sam Cornish , U Oxford ; Lisa Craw , U Tasmania ; Andrew Davies , WHOI ; Dmitry Divine , NPI/HAVOC ; Francesca Doglioni , AWI ; Falk Ebert , Herder-Gymnasium Berlin ; Carina Engicht , AWI ; Ying-Chih Fang , AWI ; Ilker Fer , UIB ; Mats Granskog , NPI/HAVOC ; Rainer Graupner , AWI ; Hailun He , SIO China ; Yan He , FIO ; Céline Heuzé , U Gotheburg ; Mario Hoppmann , AWI ; Markus Janout , AWI ; David Kadko , FIU ; Torsten Kanzow , AWI ; Salar Karam , U Gothenburg ; Yusuke Kawaguchi , Uni. Tokyo ; Zoe Koenig , UIB ; Bin Kong , FIO ; Rick Krishfield , WHOI ; David Kuhlmey , AWI ; Ivan Kuznetsov , AWI ; Musheng Lan , PRIC ; Ruibo Lei , PRIC ; Tao Li , OUC ; Long Lin , SIO ; Hailong Liu , SJTU ; Na Liu , FIO ; Xiaobing Ma , FIO ; Rosalie MacKay , NTNU ; Maria Mallet , AWI ; Robbie Mallet , UCL ; Wieslaw Maslowski , NPS ; Christian Mertens , Uni Bremen ; Volker Mohrholz , IOW ; Matthias Monsees , AWI ; Morven Muilwijk , UiB ; Jeff O'Brien , WHOI ; Algot Peterson , UIB ; Pierre Priou , U Newfoundland ; Benjamin Rabe , AWI ; Julia Regnery , AWI ; Jian Ren , SIO ; Natalia Ribeiro Santos , U Tasmania ; Janin Schaffer , AWI ; Ingo Schuffenhauer , IOW ; Kirstin Schulz , AWI ; William Shaw , NPS ; Timothy Stanton , NPS ; Mark Stephens , FIU ; Jie Su , OUC ; Natalia Sukhikh , Uni Bremen ; Arild Sundfjord , NPI/HAVOC ; Sandra Tippenhauer , AWI ; John Toole , WHOI ; Pedro Torre , NTNU ; Jutta Vernaleken , AWI ; Myriel Vredenborg , AWI ; Hangzhou Wang , ZJU ; Lei Wang , BMU ; Yuntao Wang , SIO ; Bai Youcheng , SIO ; Jinping Zhao , OUC ; Meng Zhou , SJTU ; Jialiang Zhu , OUC., EGU21-1794, updated on 10 Mar 2021 https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-1794 EGU General Assembly 2021 |
| Start Year | 2018 |
| Description | The next phase of the Community Ocean Wave Climate (COWCliP) model intercomparison project. https://cowclip.org/ |
| Organisation | Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation |
| Country | Australia |
| Sector | Public |
| PI Contribution | NOC participates in the next phase the next phase of the Community Ocean Wave Climate (COWCliP) model intercomparison project, led by CSIRO, Australia, and endorsed by WMO/IPCC. https://cowclip.org/ . This is a worldwide collaboration between ocean-sea ice-wave modelling groups. NOC provides climate simulations with global wave-NEMO-sea ice model, for the current and future projected climates. |
| Collaborator Contribution | Partners provide climate simulations from ensembles of global waves models. |
| Impact | Project has just started. |
| Start Year | 2022 |
| Description | UK LTS-M Atlantic Climate System Integrated Study Programme (ACSIS)" (NE/N018044/1) |
| Organisation | British Antarctic Survey |
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Sector | Academic/University |
| PI Contribution | Joint analysis of the UK ESM historical period ensemble integrations. Model validations on in situ data and satellite products and bias assessments. |
| Collaborator Contribution | Joint analysis of the UK ESM historical period ensemble integrations. Model validations on in situ data and satellite products and bias assessments. |
| Impact | Publication: Robson, J., Aksenov, Y., Bracegirdle, T. J., Dimdore-Miles, O., Griffiths, P. T., Grosvenor, D. P., ... & Wilcox, L. J. (2020). The evaluation of the North Atlantic climate system in UKESM1 historical simulations for CMIP6. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 12(9), e2020MS002126. |
| Start Year | 2019 |
| Description | UK LTS-M Atlantic Climate System Integrated Study Programme (ACSIS)" (NE/N018044/1) |
| Organisation | Meteorological Office UK |
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Sector | Academic/University |
| PI Contribution | Joint analysis of the UK ESM historical period ensemble integrations. Model validations on in situ data and satellite products and bias assessments. |
| Collaborator Contribution | Joint analysis of the UK ESM historical period ensemble integrations. Model validations on in situ data and satellite products and bias assessments. |
| Impact | Publication: Robson, J., Aksenov, Y., Bracegirdle, T. J., Dimdore-Miles, O., Griffiths, P. T., Grosvenor, D. P., ... & Wilcox, L. J. (2020). The evaluation of the North Atlantic climate system in UKESM1 historical simulations for CMIP6. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 12(9), e2020MS002126. |
| Start Year | 2019 |
| Description | UK LTS-M Atlantic Climate System Integrated Study Programme (ACSIS)" (NE/N018044/1) |
| Organisation | National Centre for Earth Observation |
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Sector | Academic/University |
| PI Contribution | Joint analysis of the UK ESM historical period ensemble integrations. Model validations on in situ data and satellite products and bias assessments. |
| Collaborator Contribution | Joint analysis of the UK ESM historical period ensemble integrations. Model validations on in situ data and satellite products and bias assessments. |
| Impact | Publication: Robson, J., Aksenov, Y., Bracegirdle, T. J., Dimdore-Miles, O., Griffiths, P. T., Grosvenor, D. P., ... & Wilcox, L. J. (2020). The evaluation of the North Atlantic climate system in UKESM1 historical simulations for CMIP6. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 12(9), e2020MS002126. |
| Start Year | 2019 |
| Description | UK LTS-M Atlantic Climate System Integrated Study Programme (ACSIS)" (NE/N018044/1) |
| Organisation | Plymouth Marine Laboratory |
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Sector | Academic/University |
| PI Contribution | Joint analysis of the UK ESM historical period ensemble integrations. Model validations on in situ data and satellite products and bias assessments. |
| Collaborator Contribution | Joint analysis of the UK ESM historical period ensemble integrations. Model validations on in situ data and satellite products and bias assessments. |
| Impact | Publication: Robson, J., Aksenov, Y., Bracegirdle, T. J., Dimdore-Miles, O., Griffiths, P. T., Grosvenor, D. P., ... & Wilcox, L. J. (2020). The evaluation of the North Atlantic climate system in UKESM1 historical simulations for CMIP6. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 12(9), e2020MS002126. |
| Start Year | 2019 |
| Description | UK LTS-M Atlantic Climate System Integrated Study Programme (ACSIS)" (NE/N018044/1) |
| Organisation | University of Cambridge |
| Department | Department of Chemistry |
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Sector | Academic/University |
| PI Contribution | Joint analysis of the UK ESM historical period ensemble integrations. Model validations on in situ data and satellite products and bias assessments. |
| Collaborator Contribution | Joint analysis of the UK ESM historical period ensemble integrations. Model validations on in situ data and satellite products and bias assessments. |
| Impact | Publication: Robson, J., Aksenov, Y., Bracegirdle, T. J., Dimdore-Miles, O., Griffiths, P. T., Grosvenor, D. P., ... & Wilcox, L. J. (2020). The evaluation of the North Atlantic climate system in UKESM1 historical simulations for CMIP6. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 12(9), e2020MS002126. |
| Start Year | 2019 |
| Description | UK LTS-M Atlantic Climate System Integrated Study Programme (ACSIS)" (NE/N018044/1) |
| Organisation | University of Leeds |
| Department | School of Earth and Environment |
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Sector | Academic/University |
| PI Contribution | Joint analysis of the UK ESM historical period ensemble integrations. Model validations on in situ data and satellite products and bias assessments. |
| Collaborator Contribution | Joint analysis of the UK ESM historical period ensemble integrations. Model validations on in situ data and satellite products and bias assessments. |
| Impact | Publication: Robson, J., Aksenov, Y., Bracegirdle, T. J., Dimdore-Miles, O., Griffiths, P. T., Grosvenor, D. P., ... & Wilcox, L. J. (2020). The evaluation of the North Atlantic climate system in UKESM1 historical simulations for CMIP6. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 12(9), e2020MS002126. |
| Start Year | 2019 |
| Description | UK LTS-M Atlantic Climate System Integrated Study Programme (ACSIS)" (NE/N018044/1) |
| Organisation | University of Oxford |
| Department | Department of Physics |
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Sector | Academic/University |
| PI Contribution | Joint analysis of the UK ESM historical period ensemble integrations. Model validations on in situ data and satellite products and bias assessments. |
| Collaborator Contribution | Joint analysis of the UK ESM historical period ensemble integrations. Model validations on in situ data and satellite products and bias assessments. |
| Impact | Publication: Robson, J., Aksenov, Y., Bracegirdle, T. J., Dimdore-Miles, O., Griffiths, P. T., Grosvenor, D. P., ... & Wilcox, L. J. (2020). The evaluation of the North Atlantic climate system in UKESM1 historical simulations for CMIP6. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 12(9), e2020MS002126. |
| Start Year | 2019 |
| Description | UK LTS-M Atlantic Climate System Integrated Study Programme (ACSIS)" (NE/N018044/1) |
| Organisation | University of Reading |
| Department | Department of Meteorology |
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Sector | Academic/University |
| PI Contribution | Joint analysis of the UK ESM historical period ensemble integrations. Model validations on in situ data and satellite products and bias assessments. |
| Collaborator Contribution | Joint analysis of the UK ESM historical period ensemble integrations. Model validations on in situ data and satellite products and bias assessments. |
| Impact | Publication: Robson, J., Aksenov, Y., Bracegirdle, T. J., Dimdore-Miles, O., Griffiths, P. T., Grosvenor, D. P., ... & Wilcox, L. J. (2020). The evaluation of the North Atlantic climate system in UKESM1 historical simulations for CMIP6. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 12(9), e2020MS002126. |
| Start Year | 2019 |
| Title | ARC36 stand-alone SI3 Arctic configuration |
| Description | SI3 regional configuration of the Arctic This is a configuration of the NEMO community ocean model based on the ORCA2_SAS_ICE reference configuration. The NEMO code is available from https://forge.nemo-ocean.eu/nemo/nemo. This configuration has a resolution of 1/36 degree and is a cut-out of the global 1/36 configuration: https://github.com/immerse-project/ORCA36-demonstrator. The code base is a pre-4.2.0 NEMO version, the model source code can be found in the file src_tar. Model setup Follow the instructions on https://sites.nemo-ocean.io/user-guide/index.html to download and install the NEMO model version 4.2.0. Swap the src directory for the one in the tar file src_tar. Compile the ORCA2_SAS_ICE reference configuration. Put the rest of the files in this zenodo archive in the EXP00 directory, except the namelist_cfg_for_DOMAINcfg file which goes into tools/DOMAINcfg along with the grid files to be downloaded later. The files provided include example configuration namelist files namelist_cfg and namelist_ice_cfg. The atmospheric forcing used is the Drakkar forcing set (DFS) version 5.2, year 2008. The atmospheric forcing is interpolated on-the-fly, using the weights files. The weights were calculated using the nemo WEIGHTS tool. For the ocean (bottom) boundary the World Ocean Atlas 2018 multidecadal monthly averages are used. The data is already interpolated onto the ARC36 grid. Interpolation was done using the SOSIE tool. Files provided are monthly averages of sea surface salinity and temperature. Finally, the model grid domain_cfg.nc needs to be created. Download the ORCA36 files from ftp://ftp.mercator-ocean.fr/download/users/cbricaud/BENCH-ORCA36-INPUT.tar.gz, see the ORCA36 demonstrator github page. The necessary files are the coordinates and bathymetry files. To cut out the Arctic domain use ncks -F -d y,7000,,1 in.nc out.nc. Put in tools/DOMAINcfg and use the DOMAINcfg NEMO tool to create the domain_cfg.nc file using the file namelist_cfg_for_DOMAINcfg as namelist_cfg. The resulting file is large (122GB) therefore executing in parallel mode is required. The individual processor files need to be merged into one, use the REBUILD_NEMO tool. Put the resulting domain_cfg.nc file into EXP00 and run NEMO following the instructions. The ARC36 configuration was set up and run on ARCHER2 using 594 NEMO processors and 12 XIOS processors. |
| Type Of Technology | Software |
| Year Produced | 2022 |
| Open Source License? | Yes |
| Impact | The Elastic-Anisotropic-Plastic sea ice rheology simulates more accurately ice dynamics and open water leads than. the conventional rheologies, improving air-ocean momentum and heat coupling in the models. This leads to the improvement of the forecasts, CMEMS re-analysis and climate simulations. The research is done under the NERC Project "PRE-MELT" 15 (NE/T000260/1) and European Union's Horizon 2020 research and from the innovation programme under grant agreement No 821926 (project IMMERSE-Improving Models for Marine EnviRonment SErvices). The repository fulfils the public data access requirements of these projects. |
| URL | https://zenodo.org/record/6327871 |
| Title | Combined sea ice rheology code |
| Description | Fortran90 model code to account for the impacts of sea ice fragmentation by waves on sea ice rheology and dynamics. The model has been developed at the National Oceanography Centre by Drs Stefanie Rynders and Yevgeny Aksenov and has been included in the coupled and forced ocean-sea ice-waves NEMO(v3.6/v4.0+)-CICE5-ECMWF-WAM/WW3 configurations. |
| Type Of Technology | Software |
| Year Produced | 2019 |
| Open Source License? | Yes |
| Impact | It is made freely available through the UK NERC/UKMO Joint Sea Ice Modelling Programme and is widely used by the UK research community. |
| URL | https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-80439-8_13 |
| Title | Coupled wave-sea ice-ocean global model |
| Description | A fully coupled global ocean-sea ice-waves model has been developed for the model configuration NEMOv3.6-CICE5-WW3. 2022. Code author: Dr Stefanie Rynders. |
| Type Of Technology | Software |
| Year Produced | 2022 |
| Open Source License? | Yes |
| Impact | Improved predictions of the ocean and sea state in the ice covered areas, with applications for climate, forecasting, off-shore safety and marine industries. |
| URL | https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-80439-8_12 |
| Title | Matlab model code and scripts to analyse reversibility of the Arctic and Antarctic sea ice cover in the IPCC CMIP models. |
| Description | Matlab model code and scripts to analyse reversibility of the Arctic and Antarctic sea ice cover in the IPCC CMIP models. The model code has been successfully applied to the CMIP6 set of models ran under the CDR-MIP scenarios with different CO2 emission pathways. The code is generic and can be used with netcdf data input stored on NEMO or geographical grids (author Stefanie Rynders). |
| Type Of Technology | Software |
| Year Produced | 2022 |
| Impact | Matlab model code and scripts analyse reversibility of the Arctic and Antarctic sea ice cover in the IPCC CMIP models. The model code has been successfully applied to the CMIP6 set of models ran under the CDR-MIP scenarios with different CO2 emission pathways. The code is generic and can be used with netcdf data input stored on NEMO or geographical grids. The code will, be available in 2023 (a paper on results to be submitted) |
| Title | Mixing modules in NEMO |
| Description | Ocean mixing modules for the NEMO system model v3.6 and 4.0. distributed under the CeCILL FREE SOFTWARE LICENSE AGREEMENT. |
| Type Of Technology | Software |
| Year Produced | 2020 |
| Open Source License? | Yes |
| Impact | The wave mixing module improves simulations of the oceanic mixed layer, ocean heat content and sea ice in the Arctic and Souther Ocean. The modelling research community is informed on the model development, which is used as an open source for the scientific research. |
| URL | http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/428655 |
| Title | Off-line Matlab model code to automatically detect ocean gyres in the barotropic flow. |
| Description | Off-line Matlab model code to automatically detect ocean gyres in the barotropic flow. The code is generic and can be used with netcdf data input stored on NEMO or geographical grids (author Stefanie Rynders). |
| Type Of Technology | Software |
| Year Produced | 2022 |
| Impact | The code to automatically detect ocean gyres in the barotropic flow from the barotropic stream functions, allowing to find out the largest connected oceanic gyres and examine their variability for ocean circulation analysis in the climate models. The code is generic and can be used with netcdf data input stored on NEMO or geographical grids (author Stefanie Rynders). |
| Title | Off-line generic pan-Arctic model code of the coastal permafrost erosion |
| Description | Off-line pan-Arctic Matlab model code of the coastal permafrost erosion has been developed for the framework of the new coupled ocean-sea ice-waves NEMO-CICE-WW3 model at the National Oceanography Centre by Dr Stefanie Rynders. The code is generic and can be used with netcdf data input from wave-ocean models. |
| Type Of Technology | Software |
| Year Produced | 2022 |
| Impact | The pan-Arctic model of the coastal permafrost erosion model can provide data on erosion rates for the current and future climate states and leads to the improved simulations of the marine biogeochemistry by accounting for the input of the land biogeochemical fluxes and land contaminants into the marine environment. The model provides coastal permafrost retreat data which allows assessing risks for the shore stability, shore settlements, on-shore structures and installations and can help coastal infrastructure development planning and climate impacts mitigation. The model can used for the ice barrier erosion assessments in the Antarctica. |
| URL | https://meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU22/EGU22-5807.html |
| Title | Off-line model code to assess combined risks from ocean currents, tides, waves and sea ice for offshore operations in the polar oceans and ice-covered seas |
| Description | Off-line Matlab model code to calculate critical loads and safety limits to navigate in sea ice has been developed in the framework of the new coupled ocean-sea ice-waves NEMO-CICE-WW3 model by Drs Stefanie Rynders and Yevgeny Aksenov (NOC). The model uses inputs from the coupled ocean-sea ice-waves model and applies newly developed dynamical and static ice loads calculations, along with the safety ice navigation limits for different ship classes and critical loads from combined effects from currents and waves. The model is generic and can use netcdf input from any ocean-sea ice-wave models. The model produces timeseries and spatial maps of the loads and maps safety areas for marine operations, including ships navigation and fixed off-shore structures exploitation. |
| Type Of Technology | Software |
| Year Produced | 2022 |
| Impact | The model software allows off-line assessments of the combined navigational and structural integrity risks of the fixed and floating off-shore installations from sea ice drift and compressions, ocean waves, currents and tides regionally and globally in all the seasons, as for the present day conditions, as well as for the future climates. This is essential for the marine safety planning and forecasting. |
| URL | https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-030-80439-8_12 |
| Title | Off-line pan-Arctic Matlab model code to calculate wave heights, sea ice total area and sea ice extent and coastal erosion by Arctic geographical sectors (Western, Canadian, west Siberian and East Siberian) and in the specified locations |
| Description | 2. Off-line pan-Arctic Matlab model code to calculate wave heights, sea ice total area and sea ice extent and coastal erosion by Arctic geographical sectors (Western, Canadian, west Siberian and East Siberian) and in the specified locations. The code is generic and can be used with netcdf data input from wave-ocean models (authors Yevgeny Aksenov and Stefanie Rynders). |
| Type Of Technology | Software |
| Year Produced | 2022 |
| Impact | The code serves to compare model output with available data. |
| Title | Sea ice types and provinces diagnostics software |
| Description | Python and Matlab diagnostics software to detect polynyas and different ice provinces (Marginal Ice Zone, pack ice, interior open water, etc.) in the model output and satellite data. The detection algorithm takes into account sea ice concentration, thickness and proximity to the coast and position/clustering of information grid cells inside ice zone. Code authors: Stefanie Rynders and Ben Barton (NOC). |
| Type Of Technology | Software |
| Year Produced | 2021 |
| Impact | Allows classification of sea ice provinces in the variety of data and for the salt flux and dense water analysis. |
| URL | https://eprints.soton.ac.uk/428655/ |
| Description | Action Plan (AP) document for the Arctic group WG4 (Predicted Ocean) of the UN Decade of the Ocean |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Championed one of the topics of the Action Plan (AP) document for the Arctic group WG4 (Predicted Ocean) of the UN Decade of the Ocean |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
| Description | Interview for BBC Radio 4 Arctic special "Today" programme |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Media (as a channel to the public) |
| Results and Impact | Aksenov has been interviewed on the BBC Radio 4 Arctic special for the "Today" programme aired Thur the 14 Mar on the changes in the Artic and links with the industrial applications. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2019 |
| Description | Presentation at the UN Climate Change Conference (COP25) in Madrid for the Cryosphere Pavilion: "The New Arctic: The impact of change in Arctic Ocean sea ice on marine ecosystems and maritime industries?" |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
| Results and Impact | Presented at the UN Climate Change Conference (COP25) in Madrid. Delivered a talk at the Cryosphere Pavilion on the scientific evidence for climate change impacts in the Arctic and the consequences. Title: The New Arctic: The impact of change in Arctic Ocean sea ice on marine ecosystems and maritime industries |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2019 |