Satellite Radiation Risk Forecasts (Sat-Risk)
Lead Research Organisation:
University of Sheffield
Department Name: Automatic Control and Systems Eng
Abstract
Our society relies on satellites more than ever before, from the use of mobile phones to broadcasting and Earth observation. The use of GPS navigation, positioning and timing signals has grown considerably and we now use these signals in ways that were never foreseen, for example in agriculture and stock market trading. The modern world has also become more connected and built up dependencies that are no longer clearly identifiable. It is therefore essential that we take every reasonable precaution to ensure that satellites are protected.
Space Weather poses one of the most important threats to satellites in orbit, primarily through radiation exposure. Radiation exposure can increase within a few minutes, by a ten thousand fold or more, and remain high for days, even months. For example, in 2003 during a large space weather event known as the Halloween storm radiation levels were highly disturbed and approximately 10% of the entire satellite fleet were affected by satellite anomalies (malfunctions) leading to service interruption and in one case the complete loss of a scientific satellite costing $640 million (Cannon et al., 2013).
In 2012 the UK Government recognised the importance of space weather as a low frequency high impact event and included it on the National Risk Register (Cabinet Office, 2012). This was revised in 2017 with a recommendation for more investment into forecasting as a means of mitigating the impact. More recent research suggests that with current forecasting capability the loss of gross domestic product to the UK would be around £2.9 billion but with more investment in enhanced forecasting this could be reduced to £0.9 billion (Oughton et al., 2019). The purpose of this proposal is to provide enhanced forecasting to help reduce the impact on satellites. Currently there are over 2,200 operational satellites in orbit (December 2019).
This proposal brings together scientists from across the UK with stakeholders from the UK Met Office. The goal is to develop a real-time system to forecast radiation exposure to satellites for a range of different orbits, and quantify the risk of damage or degradation. We will do this by taking research models of the Earth's radiation belts - regions of high energy electrons and protons trapped by the external geomagnetic field and which circulate around the Earth - and turn them into operational forecasting models. The models will use real-time data from ground and space to forecast radiation exposure up to 24 hours ahead for different orbits, including geostationary orbit, Low Earth orbit and medium Earth orbit. It will also include data on radiation storms and cosmic rays. The particle radiation levels will then be used to calculate the damaging radiation effects on electronic components and solar arrays and compared to design guidelines to assess the risk of damage.
The project will also include four research elements which are specifically targeted at reducing the uncertainty in the forecasts.
The project will deliver a world leading forecasting capability for the Met Office that will help satellite operators take mitigating action, help satellite designers develop more resilient design and space insurance reduce the risk of loss. It will also support the growth of the satellite industry and the UK National Risk Register.
1. Cannon, P, S., et al. (2013), Extreme Space Weather: Impacts on Engineered Systems and Infrastructure, Royal Academy of Engineering, London, SW1A 2WH.
2. Cabinet Office, (2012), National risk register of civil emergencies, Whitehall, London SW1A 2WH, www.cabinetoffice.gov.uk
3. Oughton et al., (2019), A Risk Assessment Framework for the Socioeconomic Impacts of Electricity Transmission Infrastructure Failure Due to Space Weather: An Application to the United Kingdom, Risk Analysis, https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.13229
Space Weather poses one of the most important threats to satellites in orbit, primarily through radiation exposure. Radiation exposure can increase within a few minutes, by a ten thousand fold or more, and remain high for days, even months. For example, in 2003 during a large space weather event known as the Halloween storm radiation levels were highly disturbed and approximately 10% of the entire satellite fleet were affected by satellite anomalies (malfunctions) leading to service interruption and in one case the complete loss of a scientific satellite costing $640 million (Cannon et al., 2013).
In 2012 the UK Government recognised the importance of space weather as a low frequency high impact event and included it on the National Risk Register (Cabinet Office, 2012). This was revised in 2017 with a recommendation for more investment into forecasting as a means of mitigating the impact. More recent research suggests that with current forecasting capability the loss of gross domestic product to the UK would be around £2.9 billion but with more investment in enhanced forecasting this could be reduced to £0.9 billion (Oughton et al., 2019). The purpose of this proposal is to provide enhanced forecasting to help reduce the impact on satellites. Currently there are over 2,200 operational satellites in orbit (December 2019).
This proposal brings together scientists from across the UK with stakeholders from the UK Met Office. The goal is to develop a real-time system to forecast radiation exposure to satellites for a range of different orbits, and quantify the risk of damage or degradation. We will do this by taking research models of the Earth's radiation belts - regions of high energy electrons and protons trapped by the external geomagnetic field and which circulate around the Earth - and turn them into operational forecasting models. The models will use real-time data from ground and space to forecast radiation exposure up to 24 hours ahead for different orbits, including geostationary orbit, Low Earth orbit and medium Earth orbit. It will also include data on radiation storms and cosmic rays. The particle radiation levels will then be used to calculate the damaging radiation effects on electronic components and solar arrays and compared to design guidelines to assess the risk of damage.
The project will also include four research elements which are specifically targeted at reducing the uncertainty in the forecasts.
The project will deliver a world leading forecasting capability for the Met Office that will help satellite operators take mitigating action, help satellite designers develop more resilient design and space insurance reduce the risk of loss. It will also support the growth of the satellite industry and the UK National Risk Register.
1. Cannon, P, S., et al. (2013), Extreme Space Weather: Impacts on Engineered Systems and Infrastructure, Royal Academy of Engineering, London, SW1A 2WH.
2. Cabinet Office, (2012), National risk register of civil emergencies, Whitehall, London SW1A 2WH, www.cabinetoffice.gov.uk
3. Oughton et al., (2019), A Risk Assessment Framework for the Socioeconomic Impacts of Electricity Transmission Infrastructure Failure Due to Space Weather: An Application to the United Kingdom, Risk Analysis, https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.13229
Planned Impact
We have identified the following non-academic users who will benefit from our research:
UK Met Office
The research proposed in this project (Sat-Risk) is to develop an operational space weather forecasting system for the UK Met Office that is specially tailored to help protect satellites in orbit. The UK Met Office will be the direct beneficiaries. The system will be able to provide forecasts of particle radiation exposure to satellites up to 24 hours ahead for low and medium Earth and geostationary orbit. At the end of the project the system will be licensed to the UK Met Office for continued operation.
Satellite operators
Satellite operators have an interest in the safe and reliable operation of their spacecraft. Space weather events can cause satellite anomalies (malfunctions) resulting in loss of service and in some cases total satellite loss. It can also mean a delay in reaching orbit and lost revenue if an anomaly affects electric orbit raising. Our research will lead to a step-change in space weather forecasting which will provide satellite operators with space weather situation awareness. This will enable them to plan mitigating action, for example, to suspend orbit manoeuvres and software updates, to ensure more staff are available to deal with problems, to have back-up systems immediately available, and when appropriate to inform users that some services may be at risk.
Space insurance
Satellite insurance via Lloyds of London is a major international business. Insurance will benefit from the system as the forecasts should enable operators take mitigating action if a space weather event is imminent and hence reduce the risk of damage or an insurance claim. If there is an anomaly, space insurance may also benefit from an independent record of forecasts which could be interrogated to help understand the cause of an anomaly.
Satellite construction companies - Airbus, Boeing, Lockheed Martin
Satellite designers must protect satellites from the harsh radiation environment in space. They use models of the radiation environment to design for the 'reasonable worst case' but there is a very large uncertainty. There are thousands of new satellites planned for launch into regions of space where we have very little information on the radiation environment or its variability. Furthermore, the growing use of electric instead of chemical propulsion means that satellites spend much more time in the Earth's intense radiation belts where there is a higher risk of degradation. Our forecasts and research will provide more information on the radiation environment that satellite designers will be able to use to help assess the amount of shielding needed to protect satellites.
General public
It is widely acknowledged that space research attracts young people into Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics (STEM subjects). The press coverage of the UK Astronaut Tim Peak and the International Space Station, is compelling evidence of the public's interest in space research. Dissemination of the forecasting system will help attract young people into the STEM subjects.
Government and Policy makers
Extreme space weather was put on the UK National Risk Register in 2012 and revised in 2017 with a recommendation for more investment into forecasting as a means of mitigating the impact. Recent research suggests that with current forecasting capability the loss of gross domestic product to the UK would be around £2.9 billion but with more investment in enhanced forecasting this could be reduced to £0.9 billion (Oughton et al., 2019). The research proposed in this project (Sat-Risk) will help protect our national critical infrastructure and help deliver for the Government a more prosperous space industry. The PI (Richard Horne) is a member of the Space Environment Impacts Expert Group (SEIEG) and will be able to provide advice to Government through this Group at meetings with the Cabinet Office.
UK Met Office
The research proposed in this project (Sat-Risk) is to develop an operational space weather forecasting system for the UK Met Office that is specially tailored to help protect satellites in orbit. The UK Met Office will be the direct beneficiaries. The system will be able to provide forecasts of particle radiation exposure to satellites up to 24 hours ahead for low and medium Earth and geostationary orbit. At the end of the project the system will be licensed to the UK Met Office for continued operation.
Satellite operators
Satellite operators have an interest in the safe and reliable operation of their spacecraft. Space weather events can cause satellite anomalies (malfunctions) resulting in loss of service and in some cases total satellite loss. It can also mean a delay in reaching orbit and lost revenue if an anomaly affects electric orbit raising. Our research will lead to a step-change in space weather forecasting which will provide satellite operators with space weather situation awareness. This will enable them to plan mitigating action, for example, to suspend orbit manoeuvres and software updates, to ensure more staff are available to deal with problems, to have back-up systems immediately available, and when appropriate to inform users that some services may be at risk.
Space insurance
Satellite insurance via Lloyds of London is a major international business. Insurance will benefit from the system as the forecasts should enable operators take mitigating action if a space weather event is imminent and hence reduce the risk of damage or an insurance claim. If there is an anomaly, space insurance may also benefit from an independent record of forecasts which could be interrogated to help understand the cause of an anomaly.
Satellite construction companies - Airbus, Boeing, Lockheed Martin
Satellite designers must protect satellites from the harsh radiation environment in space. They use models of the radiation environment to design for the 'reasonable worst case' but there is a very large uncertainty. There are thousands of new satellites planned for launch into regions of space where we have very little information on the radiation environment or its variability. Furthermore, the growing use of electric instead of chemical propulsion means that satellites spend much more time in the Earth's intense radiation belts where there is a higher risk of degradation. Our forecasts and research will provide more information on the radiation environment that satellite designers will be able to use to help assess the amount of shielding needed to protect satellites.
General public
It is widely acknowledged that space research attracts young people into Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics (STEM subjects). The press coverage of the UK Astronaut Tim Peak and the International Space Station, is compelling evidence of the public's interest in space research. Dissemination of the forecasting system will help attract young people into the STEM subjects.
Government and Policy makers
Extreme space weather was put on the UK National Risk Register in 2012 and revised in 2017 with a recommendation for more investment into forecasting as a means of mitigating the impact. Recent research suggests that with current forecasting capability the loss of gross domestic product to the UK would be around £2.9 billion but with more investment in enhanced forecasting this could be reduced to £0.9 billion (Oughton et al., 2019). The research proposed in this project (Sat-Risk) will help protect our national critical infrastructure and help deliver for the Government a more prosperous space industry. The PI (Richard Horne) is a member of the Space Environment Impacts Expert Group (SEIEG) and will be able to provide advice to Government through this Group at meetings with the Cabinet Office.
Organisations
Publications
Zhang S
(2022)
An effective zero-shot learning approach for intelligent fault detection using 1D CNN
in Applied Intelligence
| Description | The key findings are the development of spatiotemporal electron flux models for a wide range of electron energy from 50 keV to 6 MeV as measured by GOES R. This work has achieved a real time forecast model of the electron fluxes at geostationary orbit. The results of the forecast can be used by physics based computer models as a boundary conditions for providing forecast within the entire radiation belts. These models will be used to provide a real time forecast at the UK Met Office, which will provide satellite operators with situational awareness of the electron flux levels that their spacecraft will experience. In addition to the GOES R electron flux models, a model for the Kp Index has been implemented on the Met Office. The resultant forecast of this model will be used as an input to physics based radiation belt model that provides a forecast for the entire radiation belts. Spatiotemporal electron models have been developed for three integral energy channels from the POES spacecraft (>30, >100 and >300 keV), that can forecast the electrons for all local times between an L-shell of 1.5-7 RE in the radiation belts. These can be used by physics based models to provide a lower energy boundary condition for physics based radiation belt models. All these models will implemented in real time on the Met Office system, which will provide satellite operators with situational awareness of the electron flux levels that their spacecraft will experience. |
| Exploitation Route | The model forecasts can be used by satellite operators to assess the situational awareness of the electron flux levels that their spacecraft will experience. The models can also be used as an outer boundary condition for physics based radiation belt diffusion models to increase their forecast horizon. The Kp Index is used by many other space weather models as an input. The forecasts of this model, that is now on the Met Office system, can be used by other models to project their models further into the future increasing their forecast horizon. |
| Sectors | Aerospace, Defence and Marine,Other |
| Description | The GOES R electron flux models that have resulted from this project and a Kp index model are implemented on the Met Office Space Weather system. As the GOES R electron flux models and Kp Index model were some of the first models to be established on the newly developed Met Office space weather system, this aided the software engineers in the development of their system, helping to debug their system as new updates were deployed. This should make subsequent research to operations easier when new space weather models are added to their system. |
| First Year Of Impact | 2022 |
| Sector | Other |
| Impact Types | Policy & public services |
| Title | Real time GOES R NARMAX electron flux models |
| Description | The model forecast 10 energies of the electron fluxes measured by the GOES R spacecraft at geostationary orbit. These models use solar wind data measured by ACE or DSCOVR as inputs to forecast future values of the electron fluxes. These models will be implemented at the Met Office. |
| Type Of Material | Computer model/algorithm |
| Year Produced | 2020 |
| Provided To Others? | No |
| Impact | The model forecasts will be provided to the UK Met Office to forecast electron fluxes. High electron flux levels can cause a wide range of issues to spacecraft from a small bit change in the memory to the complete failure of the spacecraft. These models will be hosted by the UK Met Office which will provide a large platform for the model forecasts to be viewed and will provide satellite operators with situational awareness of the electron flux levels that their spacecraft will experience. |