Consequences of Arctic Warming for European Climate and Extreme Weather
Lead Research Organisation:
University of Exeter
Department Name: Mathematics
Abstract
The Arctic region is undergoing dramatic changes, in the atmosphere, ocean, ice and on land. The Arctic lower atmosphere is warming at more than twice the rate of the global average, the Arctic sea ice and Greenland Ice Sheet melt have accelerated in the past 30 years. Notable observed changes in the ocean include the freshening of the Beaufort Gyre, and 'Atlantification' of the Barents Sea and of the Eastern Arctic Ocean. Such profound environmental change is likely to have implications across the globe - it is often said, "What happens in the Arctic doesn't stay in the Arctic". Past work has indicated that Arctic amplification can, in principle, affect European climate and extreme weather, but a clear picture of how and why is currently lacking. The 2019 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Oceans and Cryosphere concluded "changes in Arctic sea ice have the potential to influence midlatitude weather, but there is low confidence in the detection of this influence for specific weather types".
ArctiCONNECT brings together experts in climate dynamics, polar and subpolar oceanography, and extreme weather, in order to transform understanding of the effects of accelerating Arctic warming on European climate and extreme weather, through an innovative and integrative program of research bridging theory, models of varying complexity, and observations. It will (i) uncover the atmospheric and oceanic mechanisms of Arctic influence on Europe; (ii) determine the ability of state-of-the-art climate models to simulate realistic Arctic-to-Europe teleconnections; and (iii) quantify and understand the contribution of Arctic warming to projected changes in European weather extremes and to the hazards posed to society.
ArctiCONNECT brings together experts in climate dynamics, polar and subpolar oceanography, and extreme weather, in order to transform understanding of the effects of accelerating Arctic warming on European climate and extreme weather, through an innovative and integrative program of research bridging theory, models of varying complexity, and observations. It will (i) uncover the atmospheric and oceanic mechanisms of Arctic influence on Europe; (ii) determine the ability of state-of-the-art climate models to simulate realistic Arctic-to-Europe teleconnections; and (iii) quantify and understand the contribution of Arctic warming to projected changes in European weather extremes and to the hazards posed to society.
Publications
Cornish SB
(2023)
Impact of sea ice transport on Beaufort Gyre liquid freshwater content.
in Climate dynamics
Zhang R
(2021)
Diverse Eurasian Winter Temperature Responses to Barents-Kara Sea Ice Anomalies of Different Magnitudes and Seasonality
in Geophysical Research Letters
Xu P
(2021)
Amplified Waveguide Teleconnections Along the Polar Front Jet Favor Summer Temperature Extremes Over Northern Eurasia
in Geophysical Research Letters
Hay S
(2023)
The Effect of Arctic Sea-Ice Loss on Extratropical Cyclones
in Geophysical Research Letters
Geen R
(2023)
An Explanation for the Metric Dependence of the Midlatitude Jet-Waviness Change in Response to Polar Warming
in Geophysical Research Letters
McCrystall M
(2021)
Arctic Winter Temperature Variations Correlated With ENSO Are Dependent on Coincidental Sea Ice Changes
in Geophysical Research Letters
Lo Y
(2023)
Changes in Winter Temperature Extremes From Future Arctic Sea-Ice Loss and Ocean Warming
in Geophysical Research Letters
Xu M
(2021)
Distinct Tropospheric and Stratospheric Mechanisms Linking Historical Barents-Kara Sea-Ice Loss and Late Winter Eurasian Temperature Variability
in Geophysical Research Letters
Screen J
(2022)
Net Equatorward Shift of the Jet Streams When the Contribution From Sea-Ice Loss Is Constrained by Observed Eddy Feedback
in Geophysical Research Letters