TundraTime: Plant phenology change as a driver of Arctic greening trends
Lead Research Organisation:
University of Edinburgh
Department Name: Sch of Geosciences
Abstract
The TundraTime project will address climate change impacts in tundra ecosystems including how warming is shifting tundra plant phenology - the timing of life events such as bud burst or flowering - and productivity - the increase in plant growth and biomass over time. We will answer the fundamental research question of whether climate warming is leading to longer tundra growing seasons and thus increasing plant productivity in the Arctic, with important implications for carbon cycling and wildlife.
Critical knowledge gaps in the field of global change ecology are what role the high latitudes will play in the global carbon cycle and how Arctic food webs will be restructured in the future with accelerated warming. A critical unknown is whether shifting plant phenology is altering tundra carbon cycling and wildlife habitats. Projections of climate feedbacks from high-latitude ecosystems remain uncertain as we do not yet know if carbon losses from warming soils will be offset by increases in tundra productivity. Tundra plant responses to warming could be key for understanding the fate of wildlife populations in a rapidly changing Arctic.
Forty years of satellite and field observations have revealed widespread changes in the tundra's surface that protects large stocks of frozen carbon below. Field studies indicate that plants are coming into leaf earlier in spring, bare ground is becoming vegetated, and plants are now growing taller. While there is scientific consensus that climate change is reshaping Arctic ecosystems, great uncertainty persists about what the greening observed from space means in terms of change on-the-ground.
The TundraTime project will answer the fundamental research questions of whether climate warming is leading to longer periods of plant growth and increases in plant productivity in the Arctic. We will test specific hypotheses of whether tundra ecosystems are experiencing: A) increases in productivity, B) shifts in phenology and C) asynchrony of above- and below-ground plant growth. To explore these questions, we will integrate high-resolution drone and time-lapse camera imagery with satellite and in-situ data from 12 focal Arctic research sites. Our findings will inform biome-wide projections of tundra vegetation change and global-scale predictions of climate feedbacks to unprecedented rates of warming.
If tundra plant productivity is responding directly to the warmer and longer Arctic growing seasons then tundra productivity will trap more carbon in tundra ecosystems and restructure wildlife habitats. However, if instead tundra plant growing seasons are shifting earlier, then projections of increases in tundra vegetation with warming may be overestimates and earlier timing of key forage could alter migratory behaviour and ultimately wildlife populations. And, if the above- and below-ground responses of tundra plants are asynchronous, plant growth in the now extended snow-free autumns could instead be occurring below ground, which would overturn how satellite data and Earth-system models estimate plant productivity and carbon storage in warming tundra ecosystems.
The TundraTime project will test the drivers of Arctic greening by resolving the uncertainty around what role shifting plant phenology plays in the increased tundra productivity with warming. This research will bridge critical scale gaps to resolve the uncertainty between satellite and in-situ observations of changes in the timing of plant growth with accelerating climate warming.
Critical knowledge gaps in the field of global change ecology are what role the high latitudes will play in the global carbon cycle and how Arctic food webs will be restructured in the future with accelerated warming. A critical unknown is whether shifting plant phenology is altering tundra carbon cycling and wildlife habitats. Projections of climate feedbacks from high-latitude ecosystems remain uncertain as we do not yet know if carbon losses from warming soils will be offset by increases in tundra productivity. Tundra plant responses to warming could be key for understanding the fate of wildlife populations in a rapidly changing Arctic.
Forty years of satellite and field observations have revealed widespread changes in the tundra's surface that protects large stocks of frozen carbon below. Field studies indicate that plants are coming into leaf earlier in spring, bare ground is becoming vegetated, and plants are now growing taller. While there is scientific consensus that climate change is reshaping Arctic ecosystems, great uncertainty persists about what the greening observed from space means in terms of change on-the-ground.
The TundraTime project will answer the fundamental research questions of whether climate warming is leading to longer periods of plant growth and increases in plant productivity in the Arctic. We will test specific hypotheses of whether tundra ecosystems are experiencing: A) increases in productivity, B) shifts in phenology and C) asynchrony of above- and below-ground plant growth. To explore these questions, we will integrate high-resolution drone and time-lapse camera imagery with satellite and in-situ data from 12 focal Arctic research sites. Our findings will inform biome-wide projections of tundra vegetation change and global-scale predictions of climate feedbacks to unprecedented rates of warming.
If tundra plant productivity is responding directly to the warmer and longer Arctic growing seasons then tundra productivity will trap more carbon in tundra ecosystems and restructure wildlife habitats. However, if instead tundra plant growing seasons are shifting earlier, then projections of increases in tundra vegetation with warming may be overestimates and earlier timing of key forage could alter migratory behaviour and ultimately wildlife populations. And, if the above- and below-ground responses of tundra plants are asynchronous, plant growth in the now extended snow-free autumns could instead be occurring below ground, which would overturn how satellite data and Earth-system models estimate plant productivity and carbon storage in warming tundra ecosystems.
The TundraTime project will test the drivers of Arctic greening by resolving the uncertainty around what role shifting plant phenology plays in the increased tundra productivity with warming. This research will bridge critical scale gaps to resolve the uncertainty between satellite and in-situ observations of changes in the timing of plant growth with accelerating climate warming.
Organisations
- University of Edinburgh (Lead Research Organisation)
- Leiden University (Collaboration)
- Ben-Gurion University of the Negev (Collaboration)
- Utrecht University (Collaboration)
- European Research Council (ERC) (Collaboration)
- International Arctic Science Committee (IASC) (Collaboration)
- UNIVERSITY OF BRITISH COLUMBIA (Collaboration)
- European Commission H2020 (Collaboration)
- Aarhus University (Project Partner)
- University of Colorado Boulder (Project Partner)
- National Aeronautics and Space Administration (Project Partner)
- University of Gothenburg (Project Partner)
- Oak Ridge National Laboratory (Project Partner)
- Aurora Research Institute (Project Partner)
- Colgate University (Project Partner)
- University of Zurich (Project Partner)
- University of British Columbia (Project Partner)
- University of Alaska Fairbanks (Project Partner)
- Amherst College (Project Partner)
- Northern Arizona University (Project Partner)
- University of Lapland (Project Partner)
- University of Montreal (Project Partner)
- Towson University (Project Partner)
- The University of Texas at El Paso (Project Partner)
Publications
Prevéy J
(2022)
The tundra phenology database: more than two decades of tundra phenology responses to climate change
in Arctic Science
Description | ERC Synergy Grant |
Amount | € 9,829,821 (EUR) |
Funding ID | 101071417 |
Organisation | European Research Council (ERC) |
Sector | Public |
Country | Belgium |
Start | 04/2023 |
End | 12/2027 |
Description | Arctic Underground Research Network |
Organisation | International Arctic Science Committee (IASC) |
Country | Germany |
Sector | Charity/Non Profit |
PI Contribution | My research team and I are participating in this network to capture the growth and phenology of tundra plants below ground around the circumpolar Arctic and in alpine areas. We are currently analysing the samples and data for this collaboration. |
Collaborator Contribution | We have established an international protocol to capture the growth and phenology of tundra plants below ground. Our collaborators have been carrying out our protocol at their tundra field research sites around the circumpolar Arctic and in alpine areas. |
Impact | https://teamshrub.files.wordpress.com/2021/05/above_belowground_phenology_protocols_14may2021.pdf |
Start Year | 2021 |
Description | Collaborations as a part of Resilience ERC Synergy Grant |
Organisation | Ben-Gurion University of the Negev |
Country | Israel |
Sector | Academic/University |
PI Contribution | I am contributing data on spatial patterning in tundra ecosystems and remote sensing across tundra and savanna ecosystems to this collaboration. |
Collaborator Contribution | My collaborators will explore the mathematical theory behind spatial patterning in tundra and savanna ecosystems. |
Impact | This collaboration has just begun and the outputs or outcomes are pending. |
Start Year | 2023 |
Description | Collaborations as a part of Resilience ERC Synergy Grant |
Organisation | European Research Council (ERC) |
Country | Belgium |
Sector | Public |
PI Contribution | I am contributing data on spatial patterning in tundra ecosystems and remote sensing across tundra and savanna ecosystems to this collaboration. |
Collaborator Contribution | My collaborators will explore the mathematical theory behind spatial patterning in tundra and savanna ecosystems. |
Impact | This collaboration has just begun and the outputs or outcomes are pending. |
Start Year | 2023 |
Description | Collaborations as a part of Resilience ERC Synergy Grant |
Organisation | Leiden University |
Country | Netherlands |
Sector | Academic/University |
PI Contribution | I am contributing data on spatial patterning in tundra ecosystems and remote sensing across tundra and savanna ecosystems to this collaboration. |
Collaborator Contribution | My collaborators will explore the mathematical theory behind spatial patterning in tundra and savanna ecosystems. |
Impact | This collaboration has just begun and the outputs or outcomes are pending. |
Start Year | 2023 |
Description | Collaborations as a part of Resilience ERC Synergy Grant |
Organisation | University of British Columbia |
Country | Canada |
Sector | Academic/University |
PI Contribution | I am contributing data on spatial patterning in tundra ecosystems and remote sensing across tundra and savanna ecosystems to this collaboration. |
Collaborator Contribution | My collaborators will explore the mathematical theory behind spatial patterning in tundra and savanna ecosystems. |
Impact | This collaboration has just begun and the outputs or outcomes are pending. |
Start Year | 2023 |
Description | Collaborations as a part of Resilience ERC Synergy Grant |
Organisation | Utrecht University |
Country | Netherlands |
Sector | Academic/University |
PI Contribution | I am contributing data on spatial patterning in tundra ecosystems and remote sensing across tundra and savanna ecosystems to this collaboration. |
Collaborator Contribution | My collaborators will explore the mathematical theory behind spatial patterning in tundra and savanna ecosystems. |
Impact | This collaboration has just begun and the outputs or outcomes are pending. |
Start Year | 2023 |
Description | European collaborations as a part of the CHARTER: Drivers and Feedbacks of Changes in Arctic Terrestrial Biodiversity Project |
Organisation | European Commission H2020 |
Country | Belgium |
Sector | Public |
PI Contribution | I am working with colleagues across Europe to analyse changes in tundra biodiversity across the circumpolar Arctic. |
Collaborator Contribution | My collaborators are providing data and expertise to these ongoing analyses and synthesis. |
Impact | This collaboration has resulted in studies that are in preparation. |
Start Year | 2020 |
Description | Media coverage for Radio Canada |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | I gave an interview for an online article for Radio Canada called 'Cinq faits à savoir sur le réchauffement du climat en Arctique, selon une écologue' |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
URL | https://ici.radio-canada.ca/nouvelle/1868450/changement-climatique-canada-nord-tundra-ecosysteme |
Description | Media engagement with National Geographic Creative Works: The greening of the Arctic tundra |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | I participated in a short film about my research on Arctic Greening. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
URL | https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/article/paid-content-the-greening-of-the-arctic-tundr... |
Description | National Geographic cruise ship engagement |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an open day or visit at my research institution |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | We met with cruise ship passengers and gave walking tours of our field site Qikiqtaruk - Herschel Island in the Canadian Arctic. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
Description | National Geographical Society Explorer Festival (London) |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | I presented a talk on my research at the National Geographical Society Explorer Festival (London) |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
URL | https://www.nationalgeographic.org/explorers-festival-london/ |
Description | Talk at the Royal Geographical Society on the Greening of the Arctic |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | I presented a talk and participated in the Royal Geographical Society Explore Festival in London in November 2022. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
URL | https://www.rgs.org/in-the-field/rgs-expeditions-and-fieldwork-festival/explore/speakers-(1)/isla-my... |
Description | WIRED: Why the Arctic Is Warming 4 Times as Fast as the Rest of Earth |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | I gave a media interview for WIRED about the rate and magnitude of warming in the Arctic. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
URL | https://www.wired.com/story/why-the-arctic-is-warming-4-times-as-fast-as-the-rest-of-earth/ |