Impact of sequence of extreme storms during 2013/14 winter on southwest coast of England

During the 2013/2014 winter, the southwest coast of England experienced an unprecedented sequence of very energetic wave conditions, including 4 extremely energetic and named storms. According to the Met Office, the storm Hercules on 6 January 2014 was a 1:5 to 1:10 year wave event alone, whereas the storm Petra on 5 February 2014 was probably the most damaging storm in terms of coastal impact on the south coast of Devon and Cornwall for the last 50 years. Furthermore, analysis of modelled and measured wave data shows that the 8-week sequence of storms from mid-December 2013 to 10 February 2014 represents the most energetic period of waves to have hit the southwest coast of England since 1950, and thus represents at least a 1:60 year event. The collective impact of these Atlantic storms on the southwest coast of England has been enormous and this has been made obvious by the extensive media coverage of these events. Many changes to the coastal landscape are likely to be permanent and damage to coastal infrastructure will take months and tens of millions of £'s to repair.

This Urgency Proposal aims to assess the impacts of this sequence of extreme storms on both the physical and human coastal environment in the southwest of England, and evaluate the vulnerability of this region to such extreme Atlantic storms. The topic is timely and relevant, because the Met Office predicts that such energetic wave conditions will become more frequent in the future due to climate change. The urgency part of the proposed research will be the recording of direct storm impacts and the collection of a baseline data set for post-storm recovery; the follow-up aspects of the grant include the analysis of the field data, numerical modelling of the wave conditions, and assessment of the vulnerability and resilience of the coastal environment to such extreme wave events.

The study area includes the coastlines of the Duchy of Cornwall and the Counties of Somerset, Devon and Dorset, and extends from Weston-super-Mare in the north to Bournemouth in the southeast, but the emphasis of the study will be on the coastline of Devon and Cornwall. The research project consists of five work packages: (1) coastal monitoring, involving the measurement of the physical changes caused by the extreme storms on a large number of sites (> 25) in the southwest of England; (2) bathymetric surveys at two selected sites on the north and south Cornish coast to determine storm impacts in the subtidal zone and the fate of the eroded beach sediments; (3) capturing the immediate experiences of local communities and responsible agencies using a combination of interviews, media analysis and social network analysis at c. 10 sites in the southwest of England; (4) wave analysis and modelling to investigate the spatial variability in the storm wave field and compare the 2013/2014 winter period with previous years; and (5) constructing a Atlantic Storm Coastal Impact Map for the southwest coast of England, using GoogleEarth as the platform, that represents an extensive catalogue of the coastal impacts (physical and human) related to the 2013/14 winter storm period, as well as a comprehensive overview of the forcing wave conditions.

This 12-month project will be carried out by researchers of the Coastal Processes Research Group and the Marine and Coastal Policy Research Centre at Plymouth University, with the Southwest Regional Coastal Monitoring Programme and the Met Office as project partners.

The six key outputs of the project are: (1) project website and facebook page to engage with the public; (2) article for Geography Journal to disseminate the research finding to A-level students; (3) at least one international conference presentation; (4) at least one scientific journal paper; (5) Atlantic Storm Coastal Impact Map; and (6) a one-day Stakeholder Workshop to bring together the various coastal stakeholders in an interactive forum.

Non academic beneficiaries will include stakeholders at various levels, such as:

1. individuals living, working and visiting coastal areas
Individuals living, working and visiting coastal areas will benefit from sustainable maintenance of their environment informed by improved understanding of coastal storm impacts, both short and long term.

2. organisations including local government, coastal advisory groups and coastal landowners such as the National Trust
Organisations including local government, coastal advisory groups and coastal landowners, such as the National Trust, will benefit from close liaison with the project team providing advice on the impacts of storms at the coast short term, and longer term in adapting their work to incorporate these effects. For example, the project team already have collaborative ongoing projects and close working relationships with both the National Trust, who own many stretches of the southwest coastline, and the RNLI who provide lifeguards on many of the regions beaches. The ongoing project with the National Trust is a PhD examining coastal cliff erosion around Cornwall. This work has identified various erosion hotspots where cliffs are rapidly retreating, informing management decisions the National Trust make about re-routing the Southwest Coastal Footpath and coastal access roads, for example at Godrevy near St Ives. The ongoing work with the RNLI stems from our NERC grant Dynamics of Rip currents and Implications for Beach Safety (DRIBS; NE/H004262/1) and relates to beach and coastal hazards, particularly rip currents, helping to forecast risk and developing an education programme targeted at vulnerable demographic groups via a jointly funded PhD.

3. national government, DEFRA and the environment agency
National government, DEFRA and the Environment Agency will benefit from improved advice on coastal storm impacts which can be incorporated into guidance for future coastal management strategies and shoreline management plans longer term. For example, the project team are just completing a 3-year EPSRC research project New Understanding and Prediction of Storm Impacts on Gravel Beaches, (NUPSIG; EP/H040056/1), in collaboration with the Environment Agency, the Channel Coastal Observatory, Hydraulics Research (HR) and Deltares. HR (Wallingford UK) and Deltares (Delft, Netherlands) are two of Europe's leading environmental consultancy companies involved in coastal work. A key output of that project has been an adaptation of the state-of-the-art X-Beach numerical model, to include gravel beach processes. The resulting 'X-BeachG' numerical model is being provided to users with a user-friendly Graphic User Interface, and will be disseminated to users via a workshop hosted by the Channel Coastal Observatory.

The benefits to individuals, organisations and government agencies from the present project will primarily be achieved via six key outputs/deliverables:
1. Project website and facebook page
2. Article for Geography journal
3. High-level International conference presentation
4. Scientific journal paper
5. Coastal Impact Map
6. One-day Stakeholder Workshop organised by Cornwall Council
For details on each of these outputs/deliverables, refer to Pathways to Impact.