Solar Magnetic Evolution and Complexity: Dundee-Durham Consortium

Lead Research Organisation: Durham University
Department Name: Mathematical Sciences

Abstract

This project continues an established and successful collaboration between researchers at the Universities of Dundee and Durham on the structure and dynamics of the Sun's magnetic field. This magnetic field dominates the Sun's atmosphere, controlling both the large-scale structure seen (for example) in total eclipse photographs, and also dynamical events on a wide range of scales. It plays a fundamental role in the celebrated problem of how the solar atmosphere is heated to millions of degrees, and structures not only the low atmosphere of the Sun but also that of the wider "heliosphere", encompassing the Earth.

Far from an intellectual curiosity, the Sun's magnetic field has a direct impact on Earth and the near-Earth environment, through space weather events such as flares, coronal mass ejections, or solar energetic particle events. Resulting geomagnetic storms create the Northern and Southern lights, but also have the potential for damaging economic impacts on engineered systems ranging from satellites and communication systems to power grids and pipelines. Our work will address both the underlying magnetic environment - which can change both over the 11-year solar cycle and from one cycle to the next - but also the origins of individual events, which come from magnetic energy releases deep in the solar corona.

The overarching aim of the Consortium is to explore the causes and consequences of magnetic complexity in the solar corona - a system that is far from static equilibrium. Can we explain the latest generation of high-resolution observations? Does the small-scale complexity that is being revealed by these observations have consequences even for large-scale outputs such as flares, coronal mass ejections, or the solar wind?

The various projects within the consortium will carry out theoretical and numerical modelling for a range of different setups, carefully chosen to model the essential features of the solar corona, including active regions (around sunspots), coronal loops, open magnetic field lines (that extend out into the solar system), and the sources of solar flares, coronal mass ejections and the solar wind. Several of our models will be directly "data-driven", taking input from telescopes, including recently digitized historical data for the past 100 years. A variety of observations from the latest ground-based and satellite telescopes, and Parker Solar Probe, will be used to validate our models. Our study of small-scale behaviour will inform the interpretation of these novel high-resolution observations of the corona. As well as probing fundamental physics relevant more widely to astrophysical plasmas, the insight gained from our simulations will have practical application in the space-weather forecasting community. It is becoming apparent that forecasting the occurrence and impact of space weather events cannot rely on the traditional static extrapolation models, but requires a deep understanding of the dynamical behaviour, and potentially the fine structure, of the Sun's magnetic field.

Publications

10 25 50
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Bhowmik P (2023) Physical Models for Solar Cycle Predictions in Space Science Reviews

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Pariat E (2023) Comparison of magnetic energy and helicity in coronal jet simulations in Astronomy & Astrophysics

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Wyper P (2022) The Imprint of Intermittent Interchange Reconnection on the Solar Wind in The Astrophysical Journal Letters

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Yeates A (2023) Surface Flux Transport on the Sun in Space Science Reviews

 
Description Developing A Live Predictive Method For Solar Flaring Using Magnetic Winding
Amount $250,000 (USD)
Funding ID FA8655-23-1-7247 
Organisation US Air Force European Office of Air Force Research and Development 
Sector Public
Country United Kingdom
Start 02/2023 
End 03/2025
 
Description American Air force Research Office 
Organisation Virginia Military Institute
Country United States 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution The air force research office funded a project on solar flare prediction which I was PI on 2019-2022. This lead to a number of high impact publications on solar flare prediction (nature communications and the Astrophysical journal) The results of this funding formed a significant basis for the one of the current projects funded on Solar Magnetic Evolution and Complexity award for which I am PI. The air force has recently (Feb16th) funded a further 3 year project on solar flare prediction which is highly complementary to the current STFC funded project. The two post-doctoral students will collaborate significantly as the techniques and data used are highly complementary. This potential synergy and collaboration cited in the project proposal (for the Air force project) as a major benefit which will have contributed to the decision for awarding the funding.
Collaborator Contribution Primarily funding the research providing for two post-doctoral students.
Impact 2 publications (so far, a third is undergoing minor corrections at the review stage) The publication of a publicly available code ARTop for analysing observational solar magnetic field data. (https://github.com/DavidMacT/ARTop)
Start Year 2019
 
Description ISSI team on dynamo effectivity of solar active regions 
Organisation International Space Science Institute (ISSI)
Country Switzerland 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution Asked to join team as self-funded "expert". Gave talks, feedback, provided simulation data.
Collaborator Contribution Talks, simulations, discussion.
Impact Publications resulting from ISSI Team project 454 with ISSI acknowledgement: Petrovay, Nagy & Yeates: Towards an algebraic method of solar cycle prediction I: Calculating the ultimate dipole contributions of individual active regions. J. Space Weather Space Clim. 10, 50 (2020) Yeates: How good is the bipolar approximation of active regions for surface flux transport? Solar Phys., 295, 119 (2020)
Start Year 2019
 
Description Met Office 
Organisation Meteorological Office UK
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution Developing numerical simulations of the solar wind for improved space weather forecasting.
Collaborator Contribution Assisting in development, running models, analysis, hosting meetings.
Impact Meetings, developing new numerical code (in progress). Has led to two joint publications so far: Edwards,Yeates, Bocquet & Mackay (2015) and Mackay, Yeates, Bocquet (2016).
Start Year 2013
 
Description NASA 
Organisation National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)
Country United States 
Sector Public 
PI Contribution Running & interpreting simulations for joint publications, hosting visits and attending collaborative meetings.
Collaborator Contribution Interpreting simulations and satellite observations, covering publication costs and support for visits.
Impact Kumar, P., Karpen, J. T., Antiochos, S. K., DeVore, C. R., Wyper, P. F. & Kyung-Suk, C., Plasmoids, Flows, and Jets During Magnetic Reconnection in a Failed Solar Eruption, 943, 156, Astrophysical Journal (2023) Wyper, P. F., DeVore, C. R., Antiochos, S. K., Pontin, D. I., Higginson, A. K., Scott, R., Masson, S., Pellegrin-Frachon, T., The Imprint of Intermittent Interchange Reconnection on the Solar Wind, 941, L29, Astrophysical Journal Letters (2022) Wyper, P. F., Antiochos, S. K., DeVore, C. R., Lynch. B. J., Karpen, J. T. & Kumar, P., A Model for the Coupled Eruption of a Pseudostreamer and Helmet Streamer, 909, 54, Astrophysical Journal (2021) Uritsky, V. M., DeForest, C. E., Karpen, J. T., DeVore, C. R., Kumar, P., Raouafi, N. E. & Wyper, P. F., Plumelets: Dynamic Filamentary Structures in Solar Plumes, 907, 1, Astrophysical Journal (2021) Kumar, P., Karpen, J. T., Antiochos, S. K.,Wyper, P. F., DeVore, C. R. & Lynch, B. J., From Pseudostreamer Jets to CMEs: Observations of the Breakout Continuum, 907, 41, Astrophysical Journal (2021) Wyper, P. F., DeVore, C. R. & Antiochos, S. K., Numerical Simulation of Helical Jets at Active Region Peripheries, 490, 3679-3690, MNRAS (2019) Kumar, P., Karpen, J. T., Antiochos, S. K.,Wyper, P. F. & DeVore, C. R., First Detection of Plasmoids from Breakout Reconnection, 885, L15, Astrophysical Journal Letters (2019) Kumar, P., Karpen, J. T., Antiochos, S. K.,Wyper, P. F., DeVore, C. R. & DeForest, C. E., Multiwavelength Study of Equatorial Coronal-Hole Jets, 873, 93, Astrophysical Journal (2019) Wyper, P. F., DeVore, C. R., J. T. Karpen, Antiochos, S. K. & Yeates, A. R. A Model for Coronal Hole Bright Points and Jets due to Moving Magnetic Elements, 864, 165, Astrophysical Journal (2018) Kumar, P., Karpen, J. T., Antiochos, S. K.,Wyper, P. F., DeVore, C. R. & DeForest, C. E., Evidence for the Magnetic Breakout Model in an Equatorial Coronal-Hole Jet, 854, 155, Astrophysical Journal (2018) Wyper, P. F., DeVore, C. R. & Antiochos, S. K., A Breakout Model for Coronal Jets with Filaments, 852, 98, Astrophysical Journal (2018) Knizhnik, K. J., Antiochos, S. K., DeVore, C. R. & Wyper, P. F., The Mechanism for the Energy Buildup Driving Solar Eruptive Events, 851, L17, Astrophysical Journal Letters (2017) Wyper, P. F., Antiochos, S. K., DeVore, C. R., A Universal Model for Solar Eruptions, Nature, 544, 452-455 (2017) Higginson, A. K., Antiochos, S. K., DeVore, C. R., Wyper, P. F. & Zurbuchen, T. H., The Formation of Heliospheric Arcs of Slow Solar Wind, 840, L10, Astrophysical Journal Letters (2017) Higginson, A. K., Antiochos, S. K., DeVore, C. R., Wyper, P. F. & Zurbuchen, T. H., Dynamics of Coronal-Hole Boundaries, Astrophysical Journal, 837, 113 (2017)
Start Year 2016
 
Description SWEEP project 
Organisation Aberystwyth University
Department Institute of Mathematics, Physics and Computer Science
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution Joint work on STFC SWIMMR/SWEEP project to develop space weather forecasting system for the UK Met Office. Our contribution is the DUMFRIC and PFSS models.
Collaborator Contribution Partners working on HUXt solar wind model, observational component, and verification.
Impact None yet.
Start Year 2020
 
Description Applied Mathematics Seminar at University of St Andrews 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Postgraduate students
Results and Impact Seminar talk on "Meaningful definitions of magnetic helicity in open domains"
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2022
 
Description Applied maths seminar at the University of St. Andrews 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Regional
Primary Audience Other audiences
Results and Impact Seminar at St. Andrews discussing flare ribbon dynamics.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2022
 
Description Cafe Scientifique talk 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Local
Primary Audience Postgraduate students
Results and Impact Talk celebrating Pi day, focussing on applied mathematics in astrophysics.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2023
 
Description Celebrate Science festival 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an open day or visit at my research institution
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Local
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Running demonstrations at the Mathematics department stand for the Celebrate Science festival.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2022
 
Description ISSI team meeting on rogue active regions, Switzerland 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact P Bhowmik attended International Team meeting on Rogue Active Regions. Gave presentation on "Hemispheric Asymmetry in Sunspot Cycles"
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2022
 
Description Invited review talk at ISSI Workshop on Solar and Stellar Dynamos: A New Era 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Review talk on Surface Flux Transport. Led to writing of a book chapter.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2022
 
Description Invited talk to ISSI workshop on Solar and Stellar Dynamos: A New Era 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact P Bhowmik gave invited talk on "Prediction of the sunspot cycle using an observationally constrained dynamo model"
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2022
 
Description Invited talk to a NASA working group on CMEs 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Other audiences
Results and Impact Presenting new simulation results on CMEs to collaborators at NASA.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2023
 
Description Invited talk to a Solar Orbiter working group 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Other audiences
Results and Impact Presenting simulation results on the solar wind to a working group for ESA's Solar Orbiter mission.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2023
 
Description Invited talk to an ISFM team on new results related to the solar wind 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Other audiences
Results and Impact Presenting/discussing new simulation work to an ISFM team based at NASA with a focus on the origins of the solar wind.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2023
 
Description Open day talk 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an open day or visit at my research institution
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Two open day talks describing the undergraduate modules and course structure in the mathematics department at Durham University.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2022
 
Description RAS specialist discussion meeting on flares 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Talk on solar flares in 2D vs 3D at an RAS specialist discussion meeting focussed on solar flares.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2023
URL https://ras.ac.uk/events-and-meetings/ras-meetings/new-generation-multi-dimensional-2d3d-and-multi-s...
 
Description Seminar at Dundee University 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Regional
Primary Audience Other audiences
Results and Impact Seminar at Dundee University, presenting solar wind simulation results.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2023
 
Description Seminar at Indian Institute of Astrophysics, Bangalore 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Invited seminar talk by P Bhowmik on "Exploring the Origin of Solar Eruptive Events Using Magnetofrictional Simulations"
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2023
 
Description Seminar talk at SPATE seminar, University of Reading 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Postgraduate students
Results and Impact Seminar talk on "Magneto-frictional modelling of the solar corona".
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2022
 
Description Talk at COSPAR, Athens 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Talk on "Solar cycle evolution of magnetic flux ropes" at COSPAR meeting, Athens (remotely).
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2022
 
Description Talk at IAU General Assembly, South Korea 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Talk by P Bhowmik on "Exploring the Origin of Erupting Events in Solar Corona using Magnetofrictional Simulations"
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2022
 
Description Talk at NAM 2022, Warwick 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Talk by P Bhowmik on "Exploring the Origin of Stealth Coronal Mass Ejections with Magnetofrictional Simulations"
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2022
 
Description Talk at National Astronomy Meeting 2022 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Talk on the limitations of magneto-frictional relaxation.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2022
 
Description Talk at SWIMMR symposium, Met Office 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Third sector organisations
Results and Impact Presentation on SWEEP: magnetic field boundaries and estimation of CME Bz (remotely).
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2022
 
Description Talk at UKMHD meeting 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Talk by P Bhowmik on "Exploring the Origin of Stealth Coronal Mass Ejections with Magnetofrictional Simulations".
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2022
 
Description Talk at UKMHD, 2022 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Other audiences
Results and Impact Talk on solar wind simulations at UKMHD meeting.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2022
 
Description Talk at Workshop on Topological Methods in Mathematical Physics, Ettore Majorana Centre, Erice, Italy 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Talk on "Meaningful definitions of magnetic helicity in open domains".
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2022