Quantifying the endemic nature of bovine Tuberculosis in the UK

Lead Research Organisation: University of Bristol
Department Name: Engineering Mathematics

Abstract

The PhD project aims to provide novel quantitative solutions to the fundamental issue of
bovine Tuberculosis in the UK. Badgers (Meles meles), which are important secondary
transmitters of the disease, are well known to be territorial. Hence the project will investigate
the relationship between individual animal territorial strategy and the emergent population
behaviours that occur as a result. By incorporating mathematical models of disease
transmission into the dynamics of this complex system, it will be possible to develop
predictive models for this important socio-economic problem.

Successful predictive modelling can also be crucial for informing policy in dealing with this
ethically and practically difficult issue. Recent attempts to prevent transmission from
badgers have come in the form of major culls. Quantifying the effect of these culls will
provide novel insights for evidence based prevention. The effectiveness of badger
vaccination strategy or a combination of culling and selective vaccination strategies can also
be predicted with these models. Furthermore, by coupling the badger infection dynamics
with that of the cows, I will be able to present, for the first time, a fully quantitative
understanding of the endemic nature of bovine Tuberculosis in the UK.

Publications

10 25 50
publication icon
Giuggioli L (2019) Fokker-Planck representations of non-Markov Langevin equations: application to delayed systems. in Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences

Studentship Projects

Project Reference Relationship Related To Start End Student Name
EP/N509619/1 01/10/2016 30/09/2021
1793837 Studentship EP/N509619/1 12/09/2016 11/09/2020 Zohar Neu