Investigating the efficacy of vaccine strategies in Turkey using a mathematical epidemiological model18

Lead Research Organisation: University of Warwick
Department Name: School of Life Sciences


Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is one of the most important livestock diseases in the world, infecting approximately 70 different species of cloven-hoofed animal species. In FMD-free regions, the costs of an FMD epidemic can rise to billions of dollars in direct and indirect costs. In FMD-endemic regions, production losses due to the disease exacerbate poverty and discourage the adoption of more productive but more FMD-susceptible production methods. Additionally, regions where FMD is endemic are restricted in the international livestock trade. However, regions of endemic FMD also pose a threat of reintroduction to regions currently free of FMD.
Mathematical models of diseases are important for the assistance they can provide in clarifying effective policy options for combating disease, and have been used extensively in FMD-free regions. Endemic regions are important for the threat they pose in reintroducing FMD to regions free of the disease. However, due to the complexity of endemic FMD and lack of data, modelling efforts have focused on epidemic situations and the endemic situation is less well understood.
This project proposes to develop a model of endemic FMD based on data available from Turkey, a country somewhat unique in the availability of good-quality data and which sits at the boundary of a largely FMD-free Europe and an endemic Middle East. The work addresses three aims: assessing the efficacy in terms of cost-effectiveness and likelihood of eradication of several different vaccination strategies; developing and comparing farmer-led and government-led strategies of tackling FMD; and transplanting this work to assess the same in Kenya using data from the EuFMD Commission.


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Studentship Projects

Project Reference Relationship Related To Start End Student Name
BB/M01116X/1 01/10/2015 30/09/2023
1897840 Studentship BB/M01116X/1 02/10/2017 30/03/2022 Glen David Guyver-Fletcher
Description Interview for EuFMD (FAO) 
Form Of Engagement Activity A broadcast e.g. TV/radio/film/podcast (other than news/press)
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact A short interview on the challenges of modelling Foot-and-Mouth Disease (FMD), of myself and my Supervisor (Dr Michael Tildesley), carried out by the European Commission for the Control of Foot-and-Mouth Disease (EuFMD). EuFMD have been conducting interviews of visiting experts and policymakers to be published on their Soundcloud account(, for the benefit of policymakers and researchers into FMD worldwide. The file has been listened to 18 times (as of 2020-03-05).
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019