A comparative study into how access to social media impacts political polarisation and micro-level voting mechanisms in Sub Saharan Africa

Whilst the political effects of social media on Western politics are receiving significant scholarly attention, research outside this region is limited. My project would seek to amend this, focusing on increased internet connectivity and social media use on the African continent and its political implications. My initial hypothesis would be that as internet-based access to political information increases, we should expect political polarisation to increase. In countries where public trust is high, we should expect this to lead to increased voter turnout. Conversely, where public trust is low, we might expect voter apathy, disillusionment and potential conflict. We might also expect changes in the strategies elites deploy to win votes within this new informational context.
Firstly, a large N analysis will test my hypotheses at a general level. Government and network data regarding internet connectivity will be regressed against Afrobarometer and electoral data regarding turnout, party choice, participation and knowledge. I will then use case studies and fieldwork to analyse the causal mechanisms underpinning any broad empirical relationships. Senegal and Botswana are strong countries to focus on: whilst both have increasing internet connectivity, an established history of democracy, relative political stability and access to relatively reliable data, they vary with regards to public trust in political institutions. Furthermore, conducting English language research about Senegal is of academic value, since francophone African countries are comparatively understudied in the anglophone literature. Both countries have elections in 2019, so there will be a substantial amount of new social media content to textually analyse and quantitatively code. Fieldwork will allow me to conduct semi-structured interviews and speak to elites directly about campaign strategies.
Finally, I will place my results in a more universal comparative framework, analysing whether the relationships between social media and politics in the West also apply in the African setting. I would be particularly interested in unearthing the mechanisms that might connect political information to voter turnout and polarisation, such as "echo chambers" and "fake news". Furthermore, any findings in Senegal and Botswana could have implications for other areas of politics and development. If social media impacts mass polarisation, for example, there would be implications for our understanding of future conflict, backsliding and accountability. This could be especially useful in understanding recent backsliding in Tanzania, Brazil or India.