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Determinants of 'Mobilisation' at Home and Abroad: Analysing the Micro-Foundations of Out-Migration & Mass Protest

Lead Research Organisation: University of Manchester
Department Name: Social Sciences

Abstract

The MOBILISE project asks: When there is discontent, why do some people protest while others cross borders? Connecting theoretical expectations from the migration and protest literatures, we examine: a) whether similar factors drive the choice to migrate and/or protest at the individual level; b) how context affects this mobilisation; c) whether these choices are independent of each other or mutually reinforcing/ undermining. MOBILISE employs a multi-method (nationally representative face-to-face panel surveys, online migrant surveys, protest participant surveys, focus groups, life-history interviews, social media analysis) and a multi-sited research design. It covers Ukraine, Poland, Morocco and Brazil, which have recently witnessed large-scale emigration and protests. It follows migrants from these countries to Germany, the UK and Spain. The project offers four key innovations: 1)it combines protest and migration; 2)it captures all the relevant groups for a comparative study (protesters, migrants, migrant protesters and people who have not engaged in migration or protest); 3)it tracks individuals over time by employing a panel survey; 4)it includes the use of social media data providing real time information on the role of networks and political remittances. These features allow the project to make a major contribution to theory development in both migration and protest studies and offer key insights to policy makers on factors influencing political and economic stability.

Planned Impact

Expected output / impact and dissemination (both academic and non-academic)

Outputs include: a co-authored monograph on the linkage between protest and migration, of interest to scholars and students from many disciplines (political science, sociology, political economy, development studies, anthropology); a minimum of five co-authored articles in high-impact journals and specialized journals in migration and area studies (building on at least five papers at conferences such as APSA, EPSA, ASN, ASA and workshop papers and invited lectures); three research-lead policy briefs for national and international policy-makers, connected to personal briefings for policy makers in London (Chatham House), Berlin (ZOiS), Washington (Carnegie, IOM), Brussels (EU institutions), and among local users and stakeholders in Kyiv, Rabat, Brasilia and Warsaw. We plan a new data set (to be archived for open access upon the completion of the project), three dissemination workshops for different academic and non- academic audiences at regular intervals throughout the project. These workshops allow us to build a stronger network between scholars and policy-makers and allow for a two-way exchange throughout the project. These workshops, and the active involvement of a number of graduate students and post-docs in the project, underline that the project takes training, career development and the next generation of academic expertise on the themes of protest and migration seriously.

The dissemination workshops will discuss the policy implications of our findings for political stability, democratization/regime change and development. We will employ interactive formats of knowledge exchange between academic and non-academic communities.

The academic impact of the publications will be in comparative politics, sociology, area studies and migration studies. The non-academic impact results from the engagement with different national policy communities in Germany, the UK, France, the Netherlands and the four fieldwork countries, as well as with international institutions: The German Foreign Office, the UK Foreign and Commonwealth Office and their equivalents in the PIs' countries; the national Interior Ministries, DFID and equivalents across the PIs' countries; the European Commission, the IOM with its various country offices, the Population Division of the UN's Department of Social and Economic Affairs, and the Global Migration Group. This type of engagement requires the development of a strategy for building a network of interested individuals and institutions throughout the project. The PIs' extensive experience in working with the media, their regular contributions to widely read international academic, media and think tank blogs (e.g. the Washington Post's Monkey Cage, The Conversation, Carnegie Europe's Strategic Europe, ZOiS Spotlight) and their social media presence will ensure the communication of the main research findings through a wide range of different outlets targeting a wider interested public. A dedicated project website will create an information hub.

This project's collection of unique data, interdisciplinarity and potential for impact excellence. The drivers of protest and migration are of high significance in Europe and beyond. Our project knowledge exchange has the potential to raise awareness of a link between protest and migration, shape policy responses and engagement of governments and institutions and provide national and international policy-makers and institutions with an understanding of dynamics that could repeat themselves beyond our country cases.

Publications

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Onuch O (2023) The Zelensky Effect

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Onuch O (2022) European Ukrainians and their fight against Russian invasion in Nations and Nationalism

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Onuch Olga (2023) The Zelensky Effect

 
Description Key preliminary findings:

An individual's attachment to the state (civic ID), support for democracy, civic duty as well as human capital, and education are key drivers of protest engagement.
Human capital and education are key drivers of alone protest engagement "loan wolves."
Experience of Pandemic has not reduced protest readiness, in fact, it has increased it.
There is an economic tradeoff between protest and migration at the individual level. Economic concerns drive migration intention and political variables drive protest engagement.
Exploitation Route Future research should specifically track alone protesters.
Sectors Communities and Social Services/Policy

Government

Democracy and Justice

Security and Diplomacy

URL http://www.mobiliseproject.com
 
Description Our team is actively engaging in supporting and advising the EU/German/Polish and UK government response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine and humanitarian emergency resulting from Russia's war against the Ukraine. Profs Onuch and Sasse have actively worked with their respective national politicians and task forces. Prof. Onuch has specifically advised/consulted on the UK government policy and roll-out of Ukrainian refugee policy and she has worked closely with refugee organizations and policymakers (across parliamentary groups and offices). This includes supporting work in the lead up to UK-Ukraine 100 Year Partnership Declaration signing, consulting on democratic resilience and mapping out the difficulties related to future inclusion of refugee and displaced populations in any future referenda and elections. Their research on Ukrainians' views at home and abroad as part of the MOBILISE project has specifically informed this advisory work and has contributed to policy changes (including a xx million pound investment in Ukraine by the FCDO), and employing data on polarisation, disinformation to inform stakeholders in the UK MoD. in 2022 Prof Onuch set up a UK-wide task force on the humanitarian emergency focusing on supporting displaced populations from Ukraine in the UK and she contributed to the UKRI and cabinet office led task and finish group on Russia's invasion of Ukraine and its effects on the UK Higher and the support UK higher ED could should provide to scholars a risks and students displaced by war. Prof Onuch also employed MOBILISE project data on Ukrainian migrants living in the UK as well as on the dynamics of exit and voice and state attachment to support the development of the Homes for Ukraine Policy. MOBILISE project findings on leadership and democratic legitimacy and support have also been used to communicate to annual meetings of the MoD Leadership Conference. Finally, MOBILISE findings on civilian engagement in the war effort and it being driven by an attachment to territoriality and democracy have been used to advise the British FCDO, and MoD, US State Department, and EU Country Missions and Think Tanks.
First Year Of Impact 2022
Sector Communities and Social Services/Policy,Government, Democracy and Justice,Security and Diplomacy
Impact Types Policy & public services

 
Title MOBILISE: Migrant and National Online Surveys. Waves One and Two, 2019-2022. 
Description DATA DESCRIPTION (ABSTRACT) The MOBILISE project examines why some people respond to discontent by protesting, others by migrating while yet others stay immobile. It focuses on four countries that have seen outmigration and protest in recent year (Ukraine, Poland, Morocco and Argentina) and migrants from these countries who live in Germany, the United Kingdom and Spain. The main body of MOBILISE survey data are nationally representative face-to-face surveys in Ukraine, Poland, Morocco and Argentina. As these surveys are unable to capture (current) migrants from these countries - a group that is crucial to answering the MOBILISE research question - MOBILISE employs a migrant survey targeted at three destination countries; Germany, the UK and Spain. MOBILISE migrant surveys were closely oriented to the national surveys in order to achieve the longitudinal nature of the data. All of the surveys thoroughly ask for political views and beliefs as well as socio economic background, the reasons and motivations to (or not) migrate and the reason to (or not) protest. The migrant survey was run online. We also ran two supplementary online national surveys targeting the general population in Ukraine and Argentina. All MOBILISE national and migrant surveys are set-up as a two wave panel. The first wave of data collection for the migrant and national survey started in September 2019 and finished in March 2020. The second wave started between December 2020 and December 2021. This data deposit contains wave one and two of the migrant and national online surveys (the nationally representative surveys are deposited separately). 
Type Of Material Database/Collection of data 
Year Produced 2023 
Provided To Others? Yes  
Impact There have been several publications that have resulted from this data. 
URL https://reshare.ukdataservice.ac.uk/856667/
 
Title MOBILISE: National Representative Panel Surveys. Waves 1-2 Argentina, Poland, and Ukraine 2019-2022. 
Description DATA DESCRIPTION (ABSTRACT) The MOBILISE project examines why some people respond to discontent by protesting, others by migrating while yet others stay immobile. It focuses on four countries that have seen outmigration and protest in recent year (Ukraine, Poland, Morocco and Argentina) and migrants from these countries who live in Germany, the United Kingdom and Spain. The main body of MOBILISE survey data are nationally representative face-to-face surveys in Ukraine, Poland, Morocco and Argentina. All of the surveys thoroughly ask for political views and beliefs as well as socio economic background, the reasons and motivations to (or not) migrate and the reason to (or not) protest. The surveys were run face to face CAPI and following the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic the mode shifted to CATI. The MOBILISE national and migrant surveys (found in separate depository) are set-up as a two wave panel. The first wave of data collection for the migrant and national survey started in March 2019 and finished in March 2020. The second wave started between December 2020 and December 2021. This data deposit contains wave one and two of the nationally representative panel surveys in Argentina, Ukraine, and Poland (the Moroccan surveys and the migrant surveys are deposited separately). 
Type Of Material Database/Collection of data 
Year Produced 2023 
Provided To Others? Yes  
Impact Several peer reviewed publications, including two major monographs. Consulting policy makers in Ukraine, UK, Canada, United States, EU agencies, and Germany. Data used in undergraduate teaching. 
URL https://reshare.ukdataservice.ac.uk/cgi/users/home?screen=EPrint::Summary&eprintid=856910
 
Description Competitive Authoritarian Protest Research Network 
Organisation George Washington University
Country United States 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution Our PI (Onuch) coordinates the network. MOBILISE team members have participated in conferences, workshops and roundtables associated with this project.
Collaborator Contribution Scholars from the above-mentioned institutions have organized and participated in conferences, workshops and roundtables associated with this project.
Impact CAPRN Launch Workshop September 2018 (Politics and Sociology) MOBILISE/CAPRN Confercne June 2019 (Politics and Sociology) CAPRN Round Table on Protests in Belarus 1 August 2020 (Politics and Sociology) CAPRN Round Table on Protests in Belarus 2 October 2020 (Politics and Sociology) CAPRN Round Table on Protest in Poland November 2020 (Politics and Sociology)
Start Year 2018
 
Description Competitive Authoritarian Protest Research Network 
Organisation Harvard University
Country United States 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution Our PI (Onuch) coordinates the network. MOBILISE team members have participated in conferences, workshops and roundtables associated with this project.
Collaborator Contribution Scholars from the above-mentioned institutions have organized and participated in conferences, workshops and roundtables associated with this project.
Impact CAPRN Launch Workshop September 2018 (Politics and Sociology) MOBILISE/CAPRN Confercne June 2019 (Politics and Sociology) CAPRN Round Table on Protests in Belarus 1 August 2020 (Politics and Sociology) CAPRN Round Table on Protests in Belarus 2 October 2020 (Politics and Sociology) CAPRN Round Table on Protest in Poland November 2020 (Politics and Sociology)
Start Year 2018
 
Description Competitive Authoritarian Protest Research Network 
Organisation King's College London
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution Our PI (Onuch) coordinates the network. MOBILISE team members have participated in conferences, workshops and roundtables associated with this project.
Collaborator Contribution Scholars from the above-mentioned institutions have organized and participated in conferences, workshops and roundtables associated with this project.
Impact CAPRN Launch Workshop September 2018 (Politics and Sociology) MOBILISE/CAPRN Confercne June 2019 (Politics and Sociology) CAPRN Round Table on Protests in Belarus 1 August 2020 (Politics and Sociology) CAPRN Round Table on Protests in Belarus 2 October 2020 (Politics and Sociology) CAPRN Round Table on Protest in Poland November 2020 (Politics and Sociology)
Start Year 2018
 
Description Competitive Authoritarian Protest Research Network 
Organisation New York University
Country United States 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution Our PI (Onuch) coordinates the network. MOBILISE team members have participated in conferences, workshops and roundtables associated with this project.
Collaborator Contribution Scholars from the above-mentioned institutions have organized and participated in conferences, workshops and roundtables associated with this project.
Impact CAPRN Launch Workshop September 2018 (Politics and Sociology) MOBILISE/CAPRN Confercne June 2019 (Politics and Sociology) CAPRN Round Table on Protests in Belarus 1 August 2020 (Politics and Sociology) CAPRN Round Table on Protests in Belarus 2 October 2020 (Politics and Sociology) CAPRN Round Table on Protest in Poland November 2020 (Politics and Sociology)
Start Year 2018
 
Description Chatham House Presentation on Belarus (Onuch) 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact Onuch presented recent findings from our Belrus Protest Survey.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2020
 
Description F. Santos, BBC World News "Willingness to protest and tactical innovation during COVID-19" 
Form Of Engagement Activity A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Santos discussed recent MOBILISE survey data on global protest.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2020
 
Description Key Note Speech 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Key Note Lecture BASEES.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2023,2024
URL https://www.baseesconference.org
 
Description Key note Lecture EUSA JCMS 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Journal of Common Market Studies Annual Lecture EUSA Key note Onuch
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2023
URL https://www.kcl.ac.uk/events/the-journal-of-common-market-studies-jcms-annual-lecture-2023
 
Description Major Lecture MoD Sandhurst Leadership Academy Conference 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact Onuch gave a lecture using MOBILISE data at the 2023 annual MoD Leadership Academy Conference
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2023
 
Description Onuch Interview CBC on Belarus Protest 
Form Of Engagement Activity A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Media (as a channel to the public)
Results and Impact Onuch discussed protests in Belarus.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2020
 
Description Onuch Interview in The Independent 
Form Of Engagement Activity A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Media (as a channel to the public)
Results and Impact Onuch discussed one year of the Zelenskyy Presidency in Ukraine and referenced MOBILISE survey data.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2020
URL https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/ukraine-president-volodymyr-zelensky-mask-impeachmen...
 
Description Onuch and Gonzalez Santos El Pais Blog on Protest in Times of Pandemic 
Form Of Engagement Activity A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Media (as a channel to the public)
Results and Impact Onuch and Gonzalez Santos El Pais Blog on Protest in Times of Pandemic
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2020
URL https://agendapublica.es/volveremos-a-las-calles-disposicion-a-protestar-durante-la-pandemia/
 
Description Presentation on Belarus protest Ukrainian Canadian Congress Sep 2020 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Onuch presented findings from Belarus Protest Survey.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2020