Forecasting Climate Change Impacts on Electricity Distribution Loads at Network Asset Level

In response to growing electricity demand and on-site generation, distribution network operators (DNOs) in the UK are forecast to spend over £43 billion in the coming four decades on reinforcing the network that delivers electricity to UK homes and businesses. To help DNOs plan this task, they have access to forecasting tools that predict the impacts of population growth, energy efficiency improvements and low carbon technology uptake on network loads by specific region and individual asset. However, there is currently no way of quantifying how climate change impacts on demand (e.g. more summer cooling and less winter heating) and distributed generation (e.g. changing average solar insolation and wind levels) will influence the extent of network upgrades required. In this project, we will assess the feasibility of combining Met Office climate forecast data with DNO load data to determine the size and network location of potential climate change impacts on load. To do this, we will develop a prototype tool that combines these datasets to predict climate change load impacts and likelihood, resolved to individual network assets and regions, under various climate change scenarios.