Understanding and predicting the geoeffectiveness of solar wind drivers

Lead Research Organisation: UNIVERSITY COLLEGE LONDON
Department Name: Mullard Space Science Laboratory

Abstract

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Publications

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Mooney M (2019) How well do we forecast the aurora? in Astronomy & Geophysics

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Mooney M (2022) Evaluating Auroral Forecasts Against Satellite Observations

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Mooney M (2024) Evaluating Auroral Forecasts Against Satellite Observations Under Different Levels of Geomagnetic Activity in Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics

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Mooney M (2021) Evaluating Auroral Forecasts Against Satellite Observations in Space Weather

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Mooney M (2020) Examining Local Time Variations in the Gains and Losses of Open Magnetic Flux During Substorms in Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics

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Forsyth C (2020) Forecasting GOES 15 >2 MeV Electron Fluxes From Solar Wind Data and Geomagnetic Indices in Space Weather

Studentship Projects

Project Reference Relationship Related To Start End Student Name
NE/R010250/1 30/09/2017 29/09/2021
1926376 Studentship NE/R010250/1 30/09/2017 29/09/2021 Michaela Mooney
 
Description The solar magnetic field breaks open Earth's magnetic field and deposits large amounts of energy which are stored in the Earth's magnetic field before being released during an explosive process, known as substorms. In this work, we use satellite images of the auroral oval to show that before substorm onset, the auroral oval on the nightside expands towards the equator. At substorm onset, the auroral oval rapidly moves poleward, however, the poleward motion is initially only in a localised region while the rest of the nightside auroral oval continues to expand towards the equator. The poleward motion then gradually spreads around the entire nightside oval for up to 120 minutes after substorm onset. Our results show that although most of the auroral oval continues to expand equatorwards after substorm onset, the total area of the auroral oval decreases, resulting in a net decrease in the energy stored in the Earth's magnetic field.

In further work on this project, we have evaluated an operational auroral forecast model which is used in daily space weather forecasts at the Met Office against satellite observations of the auroral oval. The results of this project show that the model performs well at predicting the location of the auroral oval but the probabilities of aurora occurring predicted by the model are under-predicted for lower probabilities between 10 - 60% and slightly over-predicted for the highest probabilities of 100%.
Exploitation Route The location of the auroral oval in terms of latitude is of crucial importance to the aerospace, defence and energy sectors. The free electrons and excited molecules in the upper atmosphere associated with the aurora back-scatter long-range, ultra-high frequency radio communications. Radio wave scatter causes radar back-scatter resulting in radar clutter and also results in radio noise in radio receivers. Increased auroral activity can also cause increased absorption of radio signals in the ionosphere (Jones et al., 2017).
Substorms are a highly dynamic auroral process in which the auroral oval changes in size, latitudinal location, shape and brightness. Understanding the physics of substorms can help to reduce the impact on these sectors and help to improve auroral modelling and forecasting. It is also important to evaluate current capabilities of auroral modelling forecasting so that areas for improvement and gaps in knowledge can be identified.
Sectors Aerospace

Defence and Marine

Energy

Security and Diplomacy